Insecure, self-righteous moron. I never liked him. I hope he goes down the drain, along with the other "hackers". BTW, Dafuq with that long, red, rusty pipe of a dildo? Damn! |
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Fuck... covid got to my family.
As others have said, just take it slow and easy, rest, stay hydrated, monitor your temps and oxygen levels, and wait it out. As for medicine and things to take, I don't really know what works and what doesn't. I'd say, eat normally and healthily, if you can, and drink plenty of water. I hope all the infected in your family get well soon. |
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Ups, downs, pumps, dumps... A roller coaster of volatility. Or, is it? Could we be looking at it the wrong way? Whenever there's someone worrying about a dip, there's often a comment about "zooming out". It's a valid comment. It's good advice. What many people don't realize, is that zooming out is actually a crude form of averaging. Not in the strict mathematical sense, but this is what it effectively does. Averaging, filtering, smoothing, "seeing the whole picture", or whatever else you want to call it. Part of the averaging is done by the screen rendering algorithm, part of it is done by our brains, but it's still averaging, and it can help us "see the bigger picture". For a more mathematically rigorous approach, one could take, for example, the BTC/USD 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) graph, pictured below, together with the BTC/USD spot price, from 2012 until the present day. Notice how smooth it is. There are virtually no purple dots in the spot price graph, meaning that 200WMA has always been monotonically increasing since 2012! Not a single drop in its value, which currently stands just shy of $20,000/BTC. Also, notice that spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it, exceeding one order of magnitude (10x) in value at times. This means that 200WMA is a tried-and-tested, reliable indicator of a guaranteed minimum price, even in bear seasons when there are deep dips and long sideways actions. This can be seen in both the MtGox-triggered bear season of 2014-1015, as well as the more recent 2017-2019 bear season. In both of these cases, 200WMA just slowed down a bit, but never reversed its monotonically increasing direction. It's never been affected by Elon's tweets, Putin's plans, or China's bans... It just captures the raw trend and filters out the noise. And the trend is clearly UP. I like graphs like 200WMA. IMHO, this is the type of indicator than truly captures the direction Bitcoin is heading, and this is the indicator one should base his/her decisions on life-changing matters, such as quitting a job, relocating to another country, making a very big purchase, etc. Bitcoin spot price may reach $100k and beyond, but it can also drop to dangerously low levels in the short term, that can invalidate your life-changing plan and turn your status from "fuck-you" to "fucked-up" in no time... tl;dr: Current "fuck-you" status Bitcoin stash* = 100 BTC* Based on JJG's $2M entry-level "fuck-you" status, combined with the current 200WMA value of $20k/BTC.
BTC/USD 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) Indicator Graph source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/ |
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It's going up for
ever, Laura! That's all you
need to know, you fools!
#yodahaiku
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I'm a big spender,
Where Bitcoin's legal tender.
Texas, here I come!
#sundayhaiku
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(I am translating from the sensible fahrenheit to the non weather sensible celcius for you Europeans and lovely brave Canadians (HONK), although I agree the US are cavemen as far as the metric system goes F is just better for weather, while C is great for science or cooking.. anyway never mind that).
Given the rest of the content of your post, the science of when water freezes might be considered fairly relevant. In truth, both are arbitrary and fine I am poking the bear with that. But I do also mean it... As I said C is better for science (and cooking which IS science really) for sure. 0=freezing 100=boiling. But 0-100 in F represents a (less exact) useful range of general temperatures for the outside environment with better granularity in between at the unit. 0=cold as hell and 100=Texas. with 60-80 being a nice 20 point comfort zone. But you only get about half the whole number granularity with the "science numbers". If we can only have one scale its Celsius all day long, obviously... but the good old fahrenheit still has a place, I think. Fun fact, When Anders Celsius first invented the scale it was 100 for freezing and 0 for boiling, it was later inverted. Pro tip, use half scales, ie 21,5 C for more granularity. Didn't know about the inverted Celsius scale, thanks. IMHO, the absolute worst are the imperial units of length and weight. Surely, whoever invented those was into BDSM. |
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 https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1489599183636025347?s=21Just had a small discussion regarding this tweet with one of my friend and it went very interesting so I thought of sharing it with my WO bros. So, In above poll although at first i selected “NO” without much thought, but when I saw 26% saying “YES” I gave a little thought and I realize may be this is an option too and after discussing with my friend it looks like yes this is an option too. Ok so there could be two basic scenarios: 1.Let say bank accepts your bitcoins investment and promises you a certain interest rate let say 1% in BTC annually. This will be a great option indeed, your bitcoins are actually increasing and without any fears of inflation. But if you keep it with you, let say you invested 2 btc, your 2 bitcoins will be 2 bitcoins after a year but in bank case it will be 2.02 BTC. 2. In second scenario let say bank accept your bitcoins but wants to pay you interest not in BTC but fiat like $ and let say it’s 5% (5% of your equivalent fiat investment). Still in this scenario you are safe. Your bitcoins are safe, not increasing but not decreasing too and on top of that you are getting some cash which you can spend on any thing and your original bitcoins remains same. 3. Third scenario is you don’t invest but you just store it, and yes you can access it through your banking app similar to any wallet and you can easily convert it into your desired currency on the go and withdraw the money when needed. Yes some fee in fiat is applicable. Well please don’t bring “not your keys, not your bitcoins” into this because that’s a different concept and I totally accept it. But in this case bank promised you it’s your bitcoins and on your demand you will get it back. What you guys think? Have you heard what happened in Cyprus in 2012-2013, when 47.5% of all bank deposits above €100,000 were seized? Would you risk your 2 BTC, to get an extra 0.02 BTC? I wouldn't! |
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What a nice ant-pump! (dildos < $10k are considered ant-sized, no?)
@OOM & @The Dude: welcome to the COVID-infected club! It looks like most people, if not everyone, will eventually get it at some point... Just take good care of yourselves, stay hydrated, use your oximeter, and also be aware of something I discovered the hard way by myself: don't over-stress or injure your body while you are infected -- any body stress, inflammation or injury while COVID-infected may worsen, heal slower than normal, and can even stay with you long after you clear the infection. This happened to me and a close relative. Not sure if it applies to everyone, but I think it's worth mentioning.
Get well soon guys!
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Very nice presidential tweet, though those exact words been written before :-) Plagiarism  Yeah... But it's true, so why not? Soon, 1 BTC will be the target of one's lifetime of hard work. |
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I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically?
In theory, yes, but AFAIK, there are no automagic methods of doing this. I am quite very possibly missing some obscure tool or method that more learned node-ops use (Using RTL as the primary management tool) It's been my complaint all along (Lighting channel state balancing management), and it's an AI project Rick has started working on for me, after setting up his own Umbrel node, but the ranch project is really barreling along at a speedy pace lately, and, well, Rick and a friend are going to start an apiary, and I'm having a compact track loader delivered, that we purchased, so I'll be clearing land for them to set hives, and wildflower fields flanking the hives next week blah blah etc etc NGL. Really starting to look forward to enjoying country life. It's fucking beautiful out there. So quiet... This is so great, really happy for you guys, you deserve all the blessings you can get. I know this is hard work, but just imagine how it's going to be when it's done. Your own little paradise on Earth. Feeling a little envious (in a good way). Thanks for all the info on LN. I like the AI idea Rick is working on, you could even consider offering the code to the community at some point. What's important is that LN is growing and getting more adoption. It's not really meant to be run by simple users anyway. I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically? I think what the developers should be focusing on, is code that can be run in a set-and-forget mode, without us having to pamper it constantly to keep it in a healthy state. Maybe I'm asking too much, but the way things stand (based on what I'm reading/learning from you guys), operating a LN node is still a messy piece of work. Good thing is that it seems to be gaining more and more ground, despite the lack of user-friendliness.
In a nutshell, no… At the core of it, LN still has to be profitable to survive. People will always do it for free, but ultimately if they are forced to do it at a loss, they will eventually pull out of go bust… When you move SATs from one channel to another to rebalance, there has to be a corresponding, channel to balance the transaction… Node A to Node B to Node C to Node A In a perfect scenario, that would balance out, but what if Node B has a higher routing fee?.. who will cover that cost? Sure we can route for free, something we do during a triangle swap. But never happens unless all participants co-operate. Can explain n more detail if you want… Thanks for the info, it looks more complicated than what a piece of code can automatically do. Maybe it's safer that way, because having an algorithm do stuff automatically can be a source of instability and even a security risk, and I'm sure the developers know this. Maybe it's just too risky to let a piece of code manage the balancing. No need to expand more on this, far too busy IRL for me to get involved currently. But it's good to read and learn from the experts out there. |
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In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.
tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.
Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.
Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.
Probably blatantly obvious to some, but I'm a tard, and just figured this out on my own over the last 48 hours, and it's working ridiculously well so far to re-fill drained liquidity.
As the channel gets more balanced, I start cranking up the fees, and stuff starts flowing back out the other way, for another round of profit taking on routing.
Neato.
I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically? I think what the developers should be focusing on, is code that can be run in a set-and-forget mode, without us having to pamper it constantly to keep it in a healthy state. Maybe I'm asking too much, but the way things stand (based on what I'm reading/learning from you guys), operating a LN node is still a messy piece of work. Good thing is that it seems to be gaining more and more ground, despite the lack of user-friendliness. |
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To all shitcoiners out there, who read WO -- I'm sure there are many:
If you keep logs of your shitcoin buys/sells, and have some spare time, try to calculate your total profits/losses since you got into shitcoins, and compare it with the profits/losses you would have if you had put all your funds into Bitcoin from the very beginning. You could be in for a big surprise!
I just did this for my cousin's shitcoin trading since the beginning of 2017. At that time, he transferred a fiat amount of approx. $6000 to Kraken, and has been trading shitcoins constantly until now -- that is, for 5 years non-stop. Below are the results. Prices/values are approximate and are as I remember them.
Calculation data:
Fiat investment amount: $6000
BTC price at time of investment (01/2017): $1000
BTC price now (01/2022): $38,000
Shitcoin performance (what he did):
Total shitcoins bought/sold: Too many to list!
Total shitcoin stash value now: $15,000
Total profit from 5 years of non-stop shitcoin trading: +150% ($9000)
Total trading volume: > $50 million (Kraken earned more than $100,000 in fees)
Total stress: Extreme. Watching charts 24/7 for 5 years.
Winner: Kraken
Bitcoin performance (what he should have done):
Total BTC bought: $6000 / $1000 = 6 BTC
Total Bitcoin stash value now: 6 BTC x $38,000 = $228,000
Total profit from single Bitcoin transaction after 5 years: +3700% ($222,000)
Total trading volume: $6000 (Kraken would have earned $16 in fees)
Total stress: Low. Casually checking BTC price and enjoying profits.
Winner: Bitcoin HoDLer (as always)!
Conclusion:
Never get into shitcoin trading.
When you're trading, the real winner is the exchange.
Always put your funds into Bitcoin and nothing else.
Do it as soon as you can.
Never sell, unless you must immediately use the fiat for goods/services.
Never sell to simply put fiat in a bank account.
Never worry about dips -- they're just noise.
So simple, yet few understand...
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Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there. There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front) It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate. Signed on the back. After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me. Can anyone guess what it is? Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol) Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway? [...] GO BITCOIN  The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ?? Very nice piece though I've highlighted it in the photo below -- I guess that's what you're talking about. That's the only thing I can spot too, by quickly looking at the photo. I wouldn't call this OCD, as it's too easy to spot. Unless sirazimuth means something else... Nice piece sirazimuth.  |
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 Some peoples situation  It's always been like this. Throughout history. Wealth always flows from the weak/dumb to the strong/smart. And it's OK. As Saylor puts it, "I just pity them." The only bad thing is the bear posting part...  |
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How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?
[...]
Here are the response options:
1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".
2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough
3) Getting above $40k
4) Getting above $42k
5) Getting above $46k
6) Getting above $50k
7) Getting above $55k
8.) Getting above $62k
9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)
[...]
I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever. So, to sum up, my expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year. It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, never to fully trust prediction models, that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise. tl;dr: HoDL.I don't think those deeper dips will happen either. STHs do not have the quantity of coins like they did after the 2017 run and going off the illiquid supply they have already sold off a lot of them. To get down to those deeper levels would require LTH selling, and right now we are not getting that, we actually have the opposite. 50k sounds about right to me as well. Sure, those deeper dips that I mentioned may never happen, and I hope they won't. I just outlined a worst-case scenario that I will not be surprised to see happening. But things can turn out to be much better than this. In any case, I don't think there's anything that can make a hardened LTH sell any amount of corn at these prices. If anything, it's an opportunity to buy and stack more sats, which is something I'm seriously considering lately, even though I feel I have already reached my corn amount target (can this even be said?)! |
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How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?
[...]
Here are the response options:
1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".
2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough
3) Getting above $40k
4) Getting above $42k
5) Getting above $46k
6) Getting above $50k
7) Getting above $55k
8.) Getting above $62k
9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)
[...]
I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever. So, to sum up, my worst-case expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year. It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, to never fully trust prediction models that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise. tl;dr: HoDL.Edit: Added "worst-case" to my reply above, for clarity. |
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Bitcoin is bullish by design. A 13-year-long proven design. I don't think anyone who understands Bitcoin can ever be bearish. It's a contradiction in terms. Edit:https://youtu.be/_9sS7eqz1l4"Who are these people that are selling this to me? I feel sorry for them. What are you going to buy, that's better than what you're selling to me? I just pity them."Still want to do TA? |
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To AverageGlabella - the only regret anybody has on this forum is that they did not buy more Bitcoin at (insert any date here)
So very true. That's my only regret too. Had I invested what I could have invested at the time I bought my first BTC (2015), I would now own about an order of magnitude (10x) more coins than I currently own. This is a lesson for all Bitcoin noobs that read this: don't hesitate, invest a generous amount. Don't make the same mistake many of us did... I have my cold wallet stash which I add to periodically and use Bitcoin as my savings and deposit account adding spare fiat when available and only taking some out when absolutely needed. Loans are still cheap and the first call for unexpected day to day outgoings.
The highlighted part is the most important for a HoDLer. Never sell any amount of BTC, unless you will immediately use the fiat to pay for something you absolutely need. Few understand this. Selling your precious BTC just to fill a bank account with fiat is a stupid move in the long term. You may feel you have "locked in some profits" in the short term, especially when there's a dip (like now), but when Bitcoin reaches and exceeds 6 digits and beyond, you will realise the stupid mistake you've made. |
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A little bit of light on a dim Monday. I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole. I feel a little bit for his family. But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported. What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it.  One more thing. He STILL hasn't learned his lesson. Twetch did not fail because of bad PR! It failed EXACTLY BECAUSE it was anchored to a centralized chain and the centralized actors decided to kick him out, and the market was wise enough to also value the centralized project where it belonged. But this is just the sort of failure that awaits those who build on a centralized blockchain and then do not stay on the right side of those who control the database... Twetch did not fail because Calvin likes little girls. It failed because the idea of writing the entire internet to a blockchain is a retarded. Asshole still doesn't get it. (Sorry to any of you WO brothers who still hold out hope for the big chains.) Nice one, thanks for that info. Good riddance to both CSW, Ayre and their shitcoin BSV. I hope hey both disappear off the face of the Earth, they are some of the most despicable people I know. BTW, did something officially happen to BSV? Quickly Googled about it, but nothing came up. Any link to share, for me to read while eating my Ramen noodles? I hope BSV collapses to oblivion, and serve as a hard lesson to all Big Blockers TM out there. Well... It's really just beginning to rot. 1. CSW "won" his court case in Florida when the jury decided he ONLY had to play 100mm to the plaintiff. 2. Similarly his European court cases are being seen by the various courts as frivolous and he is "winning" them similarly to the above (as in NOT winning but still saying he is) 3. Many of the developers "building" on BSV are meeting the same fate as Elon Moist. There are several on the outs with CSW and CA (proof of centralization) 4. BSV only has 16 nodes on the chain tip with the most recent version. 5. Transactions becaome difficult over the holidays because TAAL (the centralized database/miner) went on Holiday (lol) 6. The BSV Electrum team has begun to warn that people will NOT be able to restore from seed words because no one will be able to run the node soon. 7. BSV has lost upwards of 93% of it's value against BTC. The fate of ALL alts, but particularly bad in it's case. After so many years of the fork projects taking up space and value it is nourishing to the soul to see the market do what it is supposed to do. Awesome, thanks for that compilation. Indeed, it's so nice to see the market put everyone and everything where they belong. It's just sad that inexperienced users get caught up in the transient period. But it's crystal-clear to those who can see, that the steady-state value of all shitcoins is exactly zero. |
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A little bit of light on a dim Monday. I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole. I feel a little bit for his family. But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported. What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it. One more thing. He STILL hasn't learned his lesson. Twetch did not fail because of bad PR! It failed EXACTLY BECAUSE it was anchored to a centralized chain and the centralized actors decided to kick him out, and the market was wise enough to also value the centralized project where it belonged. But this is just the sort of failure that awaits those who build on a centralized blockchain and then do not stay on the right side of those who control the database... Twetch did not fail because Calvin likes little girls. It failed because the idea of writing the entire internet to a blockchain is a retarded. Asshole still doesn't get it. (Sorry to any of you WO brothers who still hold out hope for the big chains.) Nice one, thanks for that info. Good riddance to both CSW and Ayre, and their shitcoin baby BSV. I hope they both disappear off the face of the Earth, they are some of the most despicable people I know. BTW, did something officially happen to BSV? Quickly Googled about it, but nothing came up. Any link to share, for me to read while eating my Ramen noodles? I hope BSV collapses into oblivion, and serves as a hard lesson to all Big Blockers TM out there. |
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