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681  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 04, 2015, 02:33:29 PM
All of the buys below took place after this became an issue:


DateNAV ($)NetEstEst NetEst NewActual
spaceholderAssetsHoldingBuyingInvestHolding
(M$)(XBT)(XBT)(M$)(XBT)Notes
26-Nov-1436.3749.9613418545551.70
25-Nov-1437.5249.7912963021230.82
18-Nov-1437.2148.5612752663352.42
11-Nov-1435.7744.3612122868372.51

Those buys were discussed earlier.  To me they look like a single entity investing ~6600 BTC per week.  Maybe it knows something that we don't know.


Yes, Jorge, I've read your unsubstantiated claim that you think it was single entity. More than once Smiley

Even if it was (hint: pure speculation), the point was whether anyone would be willing to buy in after the selling restriction. Apparently, someone was, to the tune of almost 8M USD.

EDIT: Or maybe I didn't get your point. Mine was: more than the selling restrictions market cycles (and perhaps, insider information) seems to drive buying/selling.

I think that's not pure speculation. It was almost the same USD amount for 4 consecutive Tuesdays (except the last one with Tuesday and Wednesday). It's logical to speculate that it was a single entity.

As I said, they invest through BIT probably because they are institutional investors that are not allowed to store real bitcoin, or they have decided to hold more than a year and don't care about the selling restriction.
682  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 03, 2015, 05:41:18 PM
For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

I find it hard to believe too, but there have been two confirmations, no denials, and @jamesg claims to have seen their newsletter.

Perhaps I should ask Barry on twitter.


Why would anyone lie about this?  It doesn't "benefit" anyone per say.  It is what it is.  As another poster said, its not a letter you can copy and paste.  No one has denied it for the simple reason it is true. Smiley

If it is true, why isn't it reported by any credible source, such as Bloomberg, CNN, or even any bitcoin news portal like Coindesk? This rumor has been here for months.
683  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 03, 2015, 02:25:25 PM
OK, ignore the "disastrous performance" if you will.  There is still the fees, failed promises, and (apparently) having to watch the share value drop without being able to take the money out.  Now, remind me, what were the advantages of buying fund shares instead of buying bitcoins directly?
Your mother or grandmother can own Bitcoin without needing to read the forums for three weeks to figure out security.
Not everyone who invests in Bitcoin has a horizon of 60 days to get rich.
Well, seen from the outside, SMBIT is starting to look more risky than buying bitcoins at Bitstamp and keeping them there.  At least, Bitstamp has no lock-in period and has a handy open market in-house.

Investors who bought SMBIT shares in September 2013, at 13 $/share, and are firm believers in the long-range success of BTC, may not be bothered by those problems.  But I am trying to imagine someone who invested in January at 90$, could have liquidated in July at 60$, but has been forced to hold and now sees the shares worth only 30$.  I can't believe that all of those January investors are hold-at-any-cost types. 

I wonder if these "problems with the SEC" are blocking withdrawals also from the other funds (PBP, Exante, etc.)

Some institutional investors may not be allowed to buy and store real bitcoin, just like they may not be allowed to buy and store real gold. If they want to invest in gold, they have to do it through "experts", like GLD.

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.
684  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 02, 2015, 03:17:36 PM
The 2nd market BIT is generally a very large whale. When the price is increasing their investors will buy more, causing additional upwards price pressure
Given the rumors that investors cannot liquidate even after the 6-month lock-in period (see previous posts), the disastrous performance of the fund this year, and the continuing lack of the long-overdue open market for their shares,  I really do not see why someone would invest in this fund.
Are you sure? Just a month ago, someone spent $10M in this fund
I saw that, and I still can't see why someone would do it.

Many people, like you, could't see why someone would buy bitcoin when it dropped from $32 to $2. They said bitcoin was a complete failure. Today, even with the "disastrous performance" in 2014, bitcoin is still 150x better than the $2 bottom.
685  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 02, 2015, 02:18:24 PM
The 2nd market BIT is generally a very large whale. When the price is increasing their investors will buy more, causing additional upwards price pressure

Given the rumors that investors cannot liquidate even after the 6-month lock-in period (see previous posts), the disastrous performance of the fund this year, and the continuing lack of the long-overdue open market for their shares,  I really do not see why someone would invest in this fund.


Are you sure? Just a month ago, someone spent $10M in this fund
686  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2014, 02:02:34 PM

5th amendment Cheesy to the filing this time I guess the juicy part was them outlining the shares to be sold. I wish the process would have a better time it will take the SEC to approve/disapprove

So is it approved yet?

I have no fucking clue, thanks to the vagueness of everything.

Typical Wall Street

If you read in the main sec.gov COIN page:

Filing Date
2014-12-31
Accepted
2014-12-30 21:10:03

Documents
14

So, I guess it is already accepted and they will work now to launch it.

NO. It always says "accepted", e.g. the first submission: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312513279830/0001193125-13-279830-index.htm
687  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 30, 2014, 11:42:27 AM
Slight increase since last update
688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: December 20, 2014, 06:59:38 AM
Date:    19-Dec-2014
VWAP:    313.31
x:    1616
a:    0.00551
b:    -1.55140
Rsq:    0.89664
The day's expected price:    1553.94
Actual price / expected price:   20.16%
Log(Actual price / expected price):   -1.601
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -290.77
Daily price rank:    405
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    27-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00550739267993612++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.5513992248266+%29   
689  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 17, 2014, 07:17:22 AM
if my math is right, I think there's a selling of approx $250k worth of BTC (a few hundreds at prevailing prices)

No, no real change since last update
690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2014, 03:34:07 PM
The worst currency today is not Bitcoin. It's Ruble. It's down 10% today even after raising interest for 6.5%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RUBUSD=X
691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: December 14, 2014, 05:48:06 PM


Will it form a triple bottom at around -1.5, or going to make a new low? It never goes below -1.5 in the past 3 years
692  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: December 14, 2014, 05:45:52 PM
Using the last update we are now at -1.6, a new low for the current downtrend. I have a feeling we'll continue going down before we go up.

it's -1.48

Date:    13-Dec-2014
VWAP:    350.19
x:    1610
a:    0.00553
b:    -1.56290
Rsq:    0.89740
The day's expected price:    1538.21
Actual price / expected price:   22.77%
Predicted date for today's price:    20-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -267.67
Daily price rank:    379
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    23-Oct-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00552873933659337++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.56289823864621+%29   
693  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 12, 2014, 08:46:07 AM
Please go to the wall observer for off topic discussion
694  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 11, 2014, 01:40:33 AM
Please go to the wall observer for off topic discussion
695  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 10, 2014, 02:33:18 AM
596 XBT bought yesterday
696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2014, 08:10:56 AM
Yesterday's Blockchain.info debacle (weak keys, sometimes same private keys given to different users; coins stolen, unknow losses) happened because someone decided to "improve"  the random number generator:
https://github.com/blockchain/My-Wallet/commit/98d5a7ca59ef04d06ac6aee468634b12975a0f5c


bc.info is nothing but a fancy UI. It is never a reliable wallet
697  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2014, 08:04:06 AM
"Falcon Global Capital closed its bitcoin fund because of slow demand, said co-founder Brett Stapper. "
http://www.moneynews.com/investinganalysis/bitcoin-fund-slow-demand/2014/12/08/id/611833/



Bitcoin didn't make them 50x richer in 10 months so they close fund?

Anyway, the secondmarket fund is still doing well
698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2014, 07:55:30 AM
The dip may have been due to a rumor about China's Unionpay doing something about their connection to bitcoin exchanges.
The rumor however has been denied, it is claimed.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2oqf3i/someone_disclosed_the_news_china_unionpay_will/

Unionpay has NEVER played any important role in the transfer of fiat to and from Chinese exchanges. Even if the news was true the impact would be small.
699  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 唯有比特币让我有赚钱的动力 on: December 06, 2014, 05:50:58 PM
你在线的。问:为什么存比特币?

因为它是我所知道的人类第一次真正独立自主的掌握自己财产的形态。也是最便捷的。

黃金白銀也可以讓你獨立自主掌握你的財產, 只是沒這麼方便
700  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 06, 2014, 04:00:00 PM
Data since Nov 2014 updated with new normalization factor
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