 That was at about 4pm CST today.  thank you for posting this. k well looks like someone wants to put the breaks on this rally.... ... i don't buy it.... look how the price appears to have drop fast yet bids are being placed above the the curent price... what happened their was a sell off when they saw the wall then bids where placed, high and no one sold into them? i think this chart is a Photoshop / bugged / or if true... really fucking bullish I've seen it on GoxLive - I believe it was a GoxLive bug, it did not appear on any other chart. |
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I don't have access to my marked up chart at the moment, but even the most recent high of 25.7 was at the top of the trend channel, and it has slightly corrected since then with possibly more on the way. Based on that, I don't think there was a breakout, but the oscillator is possibly showing the increased exhaustion of moving higher at this point which worries me. I think we've got a short term correction to the bottom of the trend channel before anything else. My answer to your question is dependent on whether or not that small correction happens.
Please post that marked up chart when it becomes available. Here you go, it's actually fared even better than I thought it had earlier. Price has so far perfectly adhered to the channel:  As you can see, we established support and resistance between 1/24/13 and 1/26/13. An ascending price channel with support and resistance was confirmed between 1/31/13 and 2/2/13, and today we tested (and so far kept) the upper channel resistance around 25.75. I had more stuff on here earlier, but my chart got reset. Regardless, this is the point I was making. You have three tops here - you choose to draw the line through the current top and the middle one - but miss a bit the bottom one, if you draw it through the bottom one and the middle one - then you'd see that there was a break out, however small. If you always draw the line through the current top then you'll never have a breakout by definition. |
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This is big and in perfect moment!
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The weekend dip was the worst ever - someone tried hard to start it but failed. This means two things first is that person will be buying, second people are again conditioned not to sell. The first might result in a bull trap - the second is longer term.
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Reverse head and shoulders?
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Someone bought 5k BTC with one click. This is really something, even I'm amazed. It's Saturday, the most boring market day of the week by far, and we see this. Wow.
So half of the wall was bought and the other one was evacuated? |
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That is rather stretching the definition of press. This is actually a very good article raising issues that counter many arguments raised in regards to the regression theorem. But it is not press and has no significance. Half of the values he mention are not about the bitcoin system itself - but rather about other cryptographic systems (one potential system and namecoins) - that is misleading - because the value of namecoins does not really add any value to bitcoins. |
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That is rather stretching the definition of press. |
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The growing walls at 21 feel silly at this point. Why set them there people after this? LOL
They hope it will bounce and they'll be able to buy back somewhere around 20. This is not quite impossible, because the volatility now will be crazy - but I would not bet on it. |
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...
Isn't it now the time to break that triangle?
Be warned for false breaks. It happens everytime. I guess it will go trollo lollo |
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Best triangle ever. With this post I want to add this thread to my list of "wathched" I have decided that the ASIC mining business is uber cool as well as it is uber fake. I will speculate. So, my view: What I hope: bitcoin down to 10$ so that I can buy a lot What I preview: bitcoin to 25$ in a month One thing that I understood is that you always have to distinguish between what you want and what you see. Isn't it now the time to break that triangle? |
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Currently their lending rates are: "69.9% a year for dollars, 23.9% a year for bitcoins" - anyone knows how it was historically? Not bad rates by the way.
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Are there ways to determine how much reserves they have? Like it was with bitcoinica and the *.
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@zby it looks like on but not what is expected my expectation did have a flat top and shorted time frame you can see that this is more bullish since it lasted longer and the increase in price it was bigger, this reflect more the market sentiment http://yfrog.com/kj36akp does that make sense for you ? Sure - I was not really referring to your previous post - just asking if it now does not look like a pennant by any chance |
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It does not need to be a coordinated attack - USA alone is enough to scare investors, sure the anarchists will stay with bitcoin till the end - but USA can destroy the exchanges.
mtgox is in Japan. But lets say they shut them down, the volume would be back, distributed among the rest of the platforms within a month, prices in 2 months. Even if they manage to shut down all the popular exchanges (btc-e is in russia btw, good luck with that) there would be new ones after a week. They can stop american banks talk to them - this would be enough to send the price in a down spiral. That said - I don't really believe that they would do it before bitcoin starts the real disruption - the government machine cannot outlaw something that easily, it takes years to come to a reasonable legislation etc. But if stuff like what Falkvinge wrote about http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/19/the-information-policy-case-for-flat-tax-and-basic-income/ happens then we'll see what the US government can and what it cannot. If until that time bitcoin has a lot of business going on it and not just the drugs and rhino horns - then this will be a fight - otherwise they'll crush the currency by undermining trust in it. A currency without trust is worthless. |
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After the $30 peak, it took some time before people realised that it had become a bear market.
Exactly. It'll take a while, but eventually I think we're likely to get into the $10 area, and probably lower. I've got all the time in the world. proudhon, tell us at what price you'll actually buy and become a bull. b/c you've been a bear all the way down to $2 and now all the way up to $19 and back down to where we are now. when, oh when? he's probably thinking something very bad will happen at one point ( Governments start poking around ) and price will suffer gr8ly. anything can happen.... <1$ bitcoins is not imposable, to think nothing bad will ever happen is just plain stupid, its just getting started... the currency wars are going to get real ugly, real soon. Despite what conspiracy theorists would want you to believe, the world's governments are not in such a good companionship as to make a coordinated attack on Bitcoin. It does not need to be a coordinated attack - USA alone is enough to scare investors, sure the anarchists will stay with bitcoin till the end - but USA can destroy the exchanges. |
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Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.
Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. A strong hand is described by a low selling pressure - which translates into a strong bargaining position. Price is rather irrelevant - it's more about the economic freedom to choose. Exactly. The actual price doesn't matter. It is the sentiment of the investor. Example of a weak shand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - in the positive scenario he is a 'strong hand' in the negative one he is a 'bag holder'. All that rhetoric is just to manipulate people. It is all just probabilities. If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper. And it is all symmetric - you know - you can also think about holding USD and selling it for bitcoins. |
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