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961  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Angry at the high fees? That's what everyone predicted the future will be like! on: November 10, 2023, 12:17:18 AM
At this point it is becoming confusing. I read somewhere that the high fees is as a result of Ordinal or NFTs on the Bitcoin network. According to the said comment, the Ordinals is a new trend that is massively being traded, hence the congestion of the Bitcoin network.
Exactly!
So can't this be considered the opposite of what you wrote in the first post?

No, is just assessing two situations, with both being completely true

1) Is the recent fee increase caused by Ordinals? YES!
2) To keep the network secure in the future when there is no block reward, are we going to have to pay the same inflated fees? YES!

I just used the current mempool situation to describe the future scenario, because if I had done so when the fees were 1sat/b nobody would have paid attention, now, things are different!

What surprises me is that you say that this is how it was designed to be. Whereas, just as Odohu has said, I thought it's the ordinal stuff that is making the fee hike, or are you, @stompix, suggesting that since the system was designed to be so, it might even be worse in the future?

Exactly, it was designed to be like this, the network will run on fees once all the coins are mined!
Remember? We had 21 million topics about this!
So when this is going happens it will be pretty much like a security company, if the fees it gets from transactions are 5$ it will act just like a police officer who is paid the minimum wage on his retirement day, if the fees are in the millions, then you can afford one full battalion of bodyguards. Grin

Definitely this is predicted to happen but why someone like me is angry about this hike is because we are not paying for security of the network that will benefit us all but we are paying such high fee because some folks created garbage and some naive folks thinks they could make profit out of it. We are bin disturb with something worthless which will soon die down. If it was as you stated out for security purposes which won’t just happen out of the blue like this one, but will be gradual process and we would well informed of that.

Well, technically even now we're paying for the security, since more fees mean more miners, but a bit irrelevant.

And yes, I know pretty well the change will be gradual, what I'm trying to tell people is that the image they chanted so easily when they were typing what will happen when all coins are mined is this one!

So it's not going to be a walk in the park, oh miners will live on from fees, and everything is fine, but it will be more like what we see now!
Some really need to understand that the reason why they can send money to another country is completely secure with no chance of transactions being reversed or censored does not happen magically, it's possible with $30 million being spent each day on that security!

Bottom line, prepare to pay up once the money printing is done!
962  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Swedish Bitcoiners targeted by armed criminals on: November 09, 2023, 11:49:20 PM
Banks are even better than exchanges because money sent from the bank can still be traced. This will make the thieves to think otherwise.

Pitchfork this guy!  Grin

But this is just another example of the myths about thieves not being able to steal for you or the government not being able to seize your coins:



The whole security works if the robber is not ready to torture you a bit with a hammer on your fingers or he has no clue you have coins, or if the government acts lawfully, because if it's the NK government I doubt 99.9% of the people on this forum would manage to keep any secret for more than 24.
Some really need to understand those limitations in security and take additional measures if they really want to be safe.
After all, a seed or a key is just a piece of information, as long as somebody is willing to go to the extreme to make you say it there is no big difference between that and your card PIN or your Netflix password.

963  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 09, 2023, 07:44:55 PM
Episode 239 of season 16, "Things that don't make any sense", preview:

Quote
Latest Block:   816032  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2441%  (1569 / 1534.56 expected, 34.44 ahead)

If the previous jump was gear coming back online cause it was profitable, the pace actually going down for the last 3 days despite the price aiming at 40k and fees adding another 11% on top of that, no way! I call bs on this unless we hear one major farm just had a fire or was seized or bombed or whatever!

I welcome any reasonable explanation but I doubt there is one!
964  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Angry at the high fees? That's what everyone predicted the future will be like! on: November 09, 2023, 07:15:02 PM
At this point it is becoming confusing. I read somewhere that the high fees is as a result of Ordinal or NFTs on the Bitcoin network. According to the said comment, the Ordinals is a new trend that is massively being traded, hence the congestion of the Bitcoin network.

Exactly!

So it becomes confusing knowing what to believe to be the cause of the high fees and if there is any other way around it with respect to the future because fees like this is a kind of discouraging!

I'm not discussing the cause here!
What I'm trying to point out is what the future everyone was talking about looks like!

Miners will need to get paid for securing the network, this is a must, you can't pay all those miners 2 cents fee unless you want only the same level of security as Ethereum classic, so the whole thing is pretty simple, nobody will force you to do a thing but
- if in the future we will pay 1 cent per tx we would have one cent worth of bodyguard
- if in the future we want to have the same level of security as now, we have to pay twice the fees we're paying in the last few blocks!

Again, nobody will be forcing you to do so, but....the are consequences if not! Grin

But look at the bright side, most of us will be dead and buried by that time!
965  Economy / Economics / Re: India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?... on: November 09, 2023, 07:10:27 PM
Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

If everything is made in China, then what the hell are all these other figures about?


It's like the Huawey phone, made in China with a CPU from Taiwan, memory and display from South Korea and Japan, lenses from Germany, and sensors from France, not to mention the materials not even 10% coming directly from China.
Nearly all the things in my kitchen are from Germany and Poland (maybe Hungary), the majority of clothes that are foreign come from Bangladesh India and Egypt, all cosmetics are also European, furniture is either from Osterreich or Sweden or even Romania, the whole China is manufacturing everything is a myth, if that would be the case what would all those 70 million in EU and 80 million in US do in manufacturing? Mint ordinals?

The only big advantage of India is the enormous population, but this can be a double edged sword, because 99% of those people are very poor and uneducated. The "poverty trap" is a big problem for India.

The actual advantage India has is that it hasn't pissed off every single of its neighbors and it's not nearly at war with every single country in east asia over this. While India has a beef with Pakistan, China has one with India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philipines, Malaysia, and not to mention Taiwan.
China grew perfectly and received investments when it wasn't trying to be a complete bully, now that the mask is off, it is the investment and there goes the manufacturing and trading.


 

966  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Angry at the high fees? That's what everyone predicted the future will be like! on: November 09, 2023, 06:52:27 PM
Yes, another fee topic, deal with it!  Cool

I know, nobody likes to pay fees, nobody! Me neither!
And if there is an exception for sure it doesn't want to pay high fees, so it's pretty understandable that everyone is unhappy about it!
But at the same time, why are you angry at the same situation everyone was believing in it and predicting it?

Every single time a newbie asked what would happen when there would be no mining reward he got the same response over 10 pages, miners will live on from fees, and the security of the blockchain will be generated from fees! And here we are, although the fees are not quite high enough yet!

The last block:
https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000002745f5dc332c3f8373773c05f3507c51bbfb4e402359b
generated :
Quote
Total fees   ‎3.257 BTC$119,069
Subsidy + fees   ‎9.507 BTC $347,557

so in order for the fees to replace the reward, you would need twice as much already, even despite this:
Quote
Fee span   280 - 8,206 sat/vB
Median fee   ~299 sat/vB $15.31

To make it as short as possible, for the network to have the same security as now without a block reward we would need each block to have twice as big fees in the future, that's how things work!
So, are you angry with high fees? Yes, we all are, but, wasn't this the design?

Before anyone comes up with some myths about this, let's clear some things

1) More efficient gear isn't making the network more secure alone, what's making the network secure is the amount of $ to invest to generate that hashrate, so if you think more efficient gear will mean the network will be just as secure but cheaper, it's delusional.
Right now the network is guarded by 400Exahash, which alone doesn't mean a thing, you must translate those into 4 million $2000 a piece machines to understand the security right now, as it takes 8 billion to launch a 51% attack. This also doesn't mean that because the hashrate in 2013 was one million lower you could attack it at that time with just 8000$  Wink

2) Cheaper energy or solar or renewable or anything else, again won't solve a thing, even if we run our gear on 0.1 cents per kWh if the reward per day is just $1000 you will only be able to afford 1Gkwh, so anyone willing to spend more than $1000 on energy will have the upper hand!

So, as a conclusion or encouragement or whatever, don't be angry at the fees, they help secure the network, and this is how it was designed to be in the first place, otherwise, we would end up like Bitcoin Gold or Ethereum classic, shitcoins getting 51% attacked 3 times in a row.

And of course, for now, we could actually start using LN rather than complaining, but that would be a solution that involves doing something!
967  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Question about Bitcoin network spammer on: November 09, 2023, 05:37:15 PM
Now, if you look here: https://ordiscan.com/, you can see two key statistics about the Ordinals rush:

1. 13.5 GB of our disk space is being wasted by our nodes storing these inscriptions inside transactions. That is 13.5GB used in just 9 months!
Extrapolating, that means that you will be wasting roughly 15GB of storage each year on worthless Ordinal tokens, as long as the demand is constant.
2. Ordinals users have paid over 1385BTC in transaction fees for inscribing this stuff. That means miners have earned literally 1385BTC from this time period or over 50 million dollars altogether.
So yes, it is keeping the miners afloat, but the disk space usage (and the associated spike in mempool fees) is quite annoying regardless.

Diskspace would be used anyhow if there would be usage, and the complaining for the 15 GB, sorry it's ridiculous.

Let's ignore that there is 600 GB torrent of One Piece with +200 seeders and over 1000 leechers and, just to make a point let's increase this to 1 TB (60x) a year, so that would make the around 40 000 nodes across the galaxy spend at max 50$ for extra space, that's a full, wow $2 million spent by the average Joe to keep decentralization!
So $2 million, would buy you 1000 S19k Pro (I went for the cheapest $/th), that can hash 120 Petahash/s, so around 0.02% of the global hashrate!

Now, if people are not willing to collectively spend $2 million a year to keep the network decentralized with increased disk storage needs, how can one envision mining not becoming fully centralized in a few years?
People paid in fees in the last 24 hours $6.5 million enough to buy with just today's fees 18731 8TB Evo ssd, in two days the fees would cover 8TB ssd for every node.
968  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: November 09, 2023, 05:09:46 PM
When we pay things, then we won't use Bitcoin (at least not on-chain) if the fees are higher than a certain percentage of the value transferred. For me, for example, I already think about not using BTC if the fee is higher than 2-3% of what I transfer, and prefer generally times where it's lower than 1-1,5%.

Just as you do that, I can give you a completely different example from personal experience, as I paid once 60sat/b on a $20  worth of BTC transaction because my hosting bill with namecheap was about to expire and right now I have ~0.1 BTC waiting to move from one wallet to another since 3 days ago and I'm not bumping the fee again cause I already did it once but I miscalculated Viabtc fees, so no, I'm not going to pay more, nada! Yeah, I'm going to be a cheap bastard in this case!

It's the perceived priority that matters, not the %, it's how much people want that, and as long as they are willing to pay enough the fees won't go down! And even if we go by the %, then we're heading to another clog anyhow because if I remember all those tales of adoption as remittance, Bitcoin coffee buyers would have to compete to around 100 million workers that would send their money cheaply via BTC at home, the average Joe paying $4, $10, 25$ would not be able to do a thing, right?

This means there is a natural "cap" to the fee for "normal" transfers - and it's normally correlated to Bitcoin's market cap, because this is the total value we as a community can transfer.

The cap is actually in the speed of transfer because money velocity is fucked up because of that!
As the remittance example above, if Bitcoin is just used as a way of transferring wealth the market cap doesn't matter,  if somebody wants to transfer 1 billion he buys one billion sends the BTC he does the flip goes back to fiat, and the fee in it becomes irrelevant to the amount of temporary value in the market cap added.

Now, you do realize that if we had a x10 capacity in the network these fees wouldn't be high, so how do we transfer this into the market cap equation, if the transfer capacity would be capable of transferring each satoshi in an individual tx once a day, so either 2.1 quadrillions or 21 quadrillions the fee won't vary that much, right?

I think the only long term solution is 1) increase LN adoption and 2) learn from Ethereum and introduce rollups (like Optimism) and sidechains.

But how do we enforce this solution?
Because if users don't want to do that, there is no way to force them, and if we already use that solution....not a nice thing to say, but...why should we care about others wasting money?

No need for me to organise anything , that will be a "democratic" decision of the btc community . If community thinks that the fee problem will disappear in a magic way then it doesn't see the future coming .

Wait till you realize Foundry has like 40% of the votes and you're not eligible to vote!  Grin

969  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's happening with Bitcoin transaction fees? on: November 09, 2023, 04:34:54 PM
We don't need a fix or a sidechain like some people are suggesting, we just need to find a way or wait for BRC20 to disappear then I believe everything will return to normal.

Can't fix it, ban it!
Also, what's normal for you?
Transactions of 1 sat/b getting confirmed the next block, empty blocks like two years ago because...well nobody was using it?
What happens if people do strat using it? What if those hundred million around the globe will do at least one tx a month?
What are you going to ban that time?
970  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Question about Bitcoin network spammer on: November 09, 2023, 02:59:11 AM
1. Who is carrying out this transaction? There is a bit of a conspiracy, in my opinion,

No conspiracy, ordinal inscription!


https://ordiscan.com/address/bc1plqdm0ndmnfzgzhfd8jcm6xrfmdur3j36cxnsj3rrfqdlz0mvczeqch89pz
https://ordiscan.com/address/bc1p0jk9wyzkuspp7pcpmalcexlpxgn2rua2m7w6hhr260rpk8ceyg9qewku7d
https://ordiscan.com/address/37q5GbpAX6ZJgcVNh9G71CCBTA7tfkk9LE
971  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Poloniex support personel asking me to download their app on: November 08, 2023, 02:17:45 PM
If the app has verification tools then this might be legit mail. I would like to know if any other users are getting the same mail after they ask the support to unfreeze their account.

This is the reason, and I'm surprised everyone is surprised by the request!
The funny part is how exactly the OP is basically answering his own fears!  Cheesy

They explicitly said in their request "simple verification using the Poloniex app" they need a visual verification, they will ask for a mugshot or two during these to prove you're an actual person, every single exchange has one of those, as it's easier for them since it's fully automated.
Again, surprised by the amount of users that treat it like some sort of odd request when it's the norm!

The most important question to be done once for all with all of this, did they link to the app in the mail, if so it is the same one that's on their website? If yes again, it's your choice, do the verification or kiss those coins goodbye

972  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Demystifying living a private life and your bitcoin on: November 07, 2023, 07:01:15 PM
This guy got robbed, got his Binance funds stolen, and after all... He took a picture of his upside-down room, and uploaded it to Twitter. Hasn't he learned his lesson yet?

What lesson?
https://twitter.com/michaelbanksfx/status/1718628321682993366

Quote
I love when I see evidence, first of all you should show evidence of transfer from your Binance and bank account then I personally will donate 200,000. The pictures you posted are not enough evidence bro. If this is true please provide evidence, I can as well post things like this and claim to be robbed.

...crickets...
But funny how he got in donation already more than enough!  Wink

Robbers enter your house rob him of his TV and phones and stand by his side of while he gets money from his friends, he sends this money to the thief's account and he manages to get a phone in less than 50 minutes to log in in his binance accounts and takes a screenshot of ... his wallet balance not of the outgoing tx... because fck logic!

Who exactly robbed him?

The tooth fairy!


973  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's happening with Bitcoin transaction fees? on: November 07, 2023, 06:43:10 PM
Definitely not related since Bitcoin high transaction is already there few days ago when the pump to 35k started.

Guess what, so where ordinals!
https://dune.com/queries/2433706/3998316
https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#1m

The first day that 1sat/b tx stopped getting confirmed was the exact day the ordinals started being minted again!
Besides, the first major pump in Bitcoin price happened in the 14-16 interval, the mempool actually went down during those days!

This is really some crazy shit, frankly. It's becoming obvious this is going to be the major bane of Bitcoin, and not even the government we keep poking fingers at for its refusal to fall in line with the mass adoption thing.

So let me get this right, guys printing jpegs and paying for those around 2 million a day in fees are a treat for Bitcoin, but not the government, which can spend for example 4 million a day on a single aircraft carrier, and the US has 11 of them! Imagine they would truly want to attack Bitcoin as they see it as a threat and redirect just that money to increase the fees to attack Bitcoin, you would be paying $60 per tx by now!  Cheesy
974  Economy / Economics / Re: 500 quadrillion EURO printed in EU during the last 80 years but no inflation on: November 07, 2023, 06:19:40 PM
This is simply insane, I wonder where he got this figures, probably some random Youtube videos he watched during 3am.

Actually, it can get even funnier, the author said that the EU did this, so if they had printed 500 quadrillions they wouldn't be using the American name but the European form, and one Quadrillion by that means 1024 not 1015 as in US  Grin

But still, quadrillions are not that impossible, Zimbabwe during the last demonetization was exchanging Ziwmbawe dollars at a rate of $1 to 35 quadrillion  Grin

Case in point these days. Euro zone is also printing money out of thin air like United States to blow life into the dead economy

If the EU is printing money out of thin air in a dead economy then what the hell is that mother of all failure called Iran doing?



Losing 95% in value in 5 years against the poor Euro, no wonder you're so mad you got your visa rejected!


975  Economy / Economics / Re: Worldwide Coupling Between Bitcoin and Electricity Prices on: November 07, 2023, 05:57:36 PM
i suspect a very strong correlation between the bitcoin and electricity prices in the future.
that correlation, i think, will start to kick in once the majority of the electricity providers become bitcoin miners as well (as a side hustle at first).

The daily reward from mining is ~30 million, which would go for 10 billion a year in revenue.
EDF, France's largest electricity provider had an annual revenue of 148 billion, and this is just one provider in one country and not by far the largest in electricity consumption, if we take China for example, the total mining reward would be just 1.2% of their revenue.
How would that work with all of them?
Not to mention an incoming halving!

Besides the whole thing fails to address two misunderstandings:
- bitcoin price determines how much electricity miner would afford to spend to run their gear.
- electricity prices determine only how many miners will be able to mine.
Bitcoin price determines electricity consumption, not the other way around.

Quote
The relative ease and cost effective of erecting small power plants using renewableenergies (such as hydro, solar and wind) compared to legacy power plants [5] is giving aclear preference for smaller companies who enter the bitcoin mining space to userenewables rather than siphoning power from existing grid

Name one single company and one data farm that is completely running on wind and solar.
I can name you 4 with more than 200MW that run on coal and gas!

Quote
We now assume that local power companies will have enough power production capacityin total ready to answer all the needs of their local grid (because they over-produce to becompetitive in the bitcoin mining industry) so the price naturally goes down when the power is diverted from the mining operation to the grid (due to quick increase in supply).
 

You forgot in both this assumption and the formula to add the price of the gear that is going to be used for mining and you forgot that electricity even solar is not free when you have to cough up $1 million in advance for it to be built, and it takes a lot of time. So the power company will not only have to increase their power generation to have extra available power, god knows why but also to buy gear and to maintain it and to have to deal with the fact that no matter how much they try they will never be able to beat the 2.5 cents per kwh Riot and Mara are mining at.

There won't be any worldwide currency as long as half of the hashrate is in one country and the majority of the rest in another 3 or 4.
976  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Mining In Iran on: November 07, 2023, 05:11:16 PM
Mining of some altcoins can be done using graphics cards and therefore it is impossible to be tracked by electricity consumption.
If we take the Antminer S19 as an example, the electricity consumption is 3250W. some home appliances such as the cooktop and central AC system need between 3000-4000 W. Therefore, if you are in a large apartment, you will consume this amount of electricity.

And do you run your AC or your overn 24/7?

An S19 running at 3250W would burn 78 kwh a day,  28,470 kwh a month.
Average household consumption is 11156 for the US, 4169 for Spain , 2307 in Iran, and only 1108 in India.
What do you plan on blaming for nearly 20x more than the average electricity consumption?

It's child-play to track, look at your electricity bill and tell me for how many hours could you have run a S19 on the amount of kwh burned during month?

977  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 06, 2023, 01:38:41 AM
Quote
Latest Block:   815503  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.5813%  (1040 / 975.78 expected, 64.22 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:05 AM  (in 6d 8h 37m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:57 PM  (in 6d 13h 29m 6s)

No negative? So bullish are we? Or is this bearish in earnings?

negative what?  Cheesy

Looking at this year's adjustment we had 6 negatives vs 17 positives, so roughly 25% negative adjustments vs 75%, despite being in more of a not-so-steep downtrend, given that price is up 20% from the year's average -- negative adjustment it will be extremely unlikely, in fact, I think this time we could have the longest streak of positive adjustments, one which we have not seen for years.

Maybe but I'm a bit unsure about this, all it takes is some shenanigans and one company realizing they are losing money with no hope in sight to wipe off enough that we go under zero, the mining business is less fragmented and just one player could heavily influence the market, and despite their expansions plans and cheap energy a ton of them are still all in red and running on borrowed money.
One or two adjustments being positive yeah maybe with smaller increments, a record-breaking pace, I don't see it.

And speaking of 2022, that period was still galloping on high income per th/s,  the year started with 23 cents/th right now even with the price increase we're pinned well below that value, we would need another 30% up on what now just to cross 10.
I'm bearish long-term on expansion and even if I got this wrong I'm grabbing some popcorn to what's going to happen once the halving is here!
12 adjustment to go till it if my math is right!

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

Doubt those were offline miners, more like a big player getting new toys, we're not having a gradual increase, we were at 4%-6% from day one, feels more like a new farm turning on rather than 300 000 old miners that were unprofitable 6 cents to become profitable at 8.
978  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [FREE RAFFLE] 536th ฿ECAUSE I AM STILL IN A GOOD MOOD-CYPHER HODL LOADED BALLET on: November 06, 2023, 01:19:53 AM
25 - Stompix

Thank you!
979  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: FTX CEO Sam Bankman Fried found guilty on: November 05, 2023, 07:15:57 PM
Also, I am one of those who speculate that Sam might get only a few years in prison or end in suicide like Jeffery Epstein. However, is this moving the goal post?

From spending only 6 months in home arrest and then enjoying all his life billions as you were saying  to him getting whacked in a prison cell, and all this being the same, that's pretty much moving the goalposts.
Why can't you simply accept that not everything needs to be some goddamn conspiracy?

It is what it is and things like this have happened for centuries, there were scammers who were even granted royal decrees and orders, and things like this will keep happening without any reptilian masterminds behind them, it's just because there are some con artists that are pretty good at what they are doing.

No, it is only a speculation that Sam might have too much information on the Democrats' moneylaundering apparatus. The Democrats might have to help him or kill him.

Yeah yeah! The same thing over and over, the ones dealing with billions, controlling the world, controlling the banks, the global economy, are so stupid to use the stupidest guy running a Ponzi scheme exchange to launder their money in with it! All those guys in such high places doing billions in money laundering were not able to tell something was wrong and they left some guy doing drugs with 20 hommies running their business?

Seriously, how high do you have to be to believe this crap even for a second?
980  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: blockchain.com EARN commission 7 % on: November 05, 2023, 06:46:22 PM
what do you guys think of blockchain.com they are offering on EARN 7 % commision ,  this company has been in the game since 2011 is guess that proves it thrustworthy  company ?

First it UP TO 7% and that's for USDT, for BTC the rates are at 0.65%.

It's pretty simple, someone thinks the price of BTC will go up, he stores his Bitcoin on their service using it as collateral to get USDT and invests all that in more BTC, thinking the 7% interest he will pay is peanuts if BTC doubles in one year.
Theoretically, the scheme is bulletproof as long is everyone plays by the book and all funds have collateral.

If they start leading you on without this collateral, then it's Celsius allover!
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