Those tart Rieslings are among the few white wines worth drinking IMO. Nice find

Trading disclosure, because I feel sooo lovey-dovey when I think of JJG.

The bloody weekend is not materializing. If anything, the short (equal to the long atm) is a losing bit now. I wish I could cash out part of one leg and rebuild it closer to the center (lower for the long, higher for the short). Which leg? My preference and rational expectation gravitate towards the short because reasons; one being I prefer to be long in general, another being that "down before up" is sexier than "up before down". Of course, I do my best not to let my hopes and preferences hinder my rational gameplay.

TL;DR Still more wait and see. Nothing to see here, gentlemen, move on please.

^^ Jesus was a Jew too. Good riddance, no? Let them kill each other.  

That's exactly the kind of slippery, "formally correct"  argument that gives you a bad name, jbreher.

You speak of dishonorable paths and then defend conman moves such as appropriating an already established logo because you have an "inkling of IP law".

If the nutjobs(TM) were selling drinks, or toys, or other unrelated items, that would have been fine and no one would've called anyone out. The point is, the scamming shitcoiners are in the very same business (tokens, cryptocurrencies or what you call this Internet magic money).

This is outright brand stealing. Not from the brand owner, but from the collective of stakeholders (bitcoiners).
The fact that there's no opponent who can sue for damage is comfortable eh?

Yes, a bit of a pest indeed.  


You made me take a look at my transfer history. I did well in the 2019 Spring Bull. And yes, in the Spring Bull I've been running all three basic strategies (one at a time), with the one-legged long less frequent than the two-legged balanced, more price agnostic approaches that tickle your curiosity. Maybe the surplus transfers (profit accumulation) were a bit less frequent transfers, OK. In retrospect, I could have done better by simply longing and waiting, hindsight 20/20 and all that. But as long as the bull run has pullbacks (and that one had quite a few IIRC), a bit of short scalping on the side doesn't hurt. More than anything, it's a safety net if things go astray. Otherwise, it's an encumbrance. No free lunch, of course, but knowing how whimsy and wanton she is, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Caution is the reason most of my shorts have stops before the disaster line. When I'm feeling unsure, and she smells like she's raising her head, I can tighten the stop and let the short go, at a loss. The same goes for the other leg, although I tend to cling to my longs  with more pride. I've been swallowing small losses on both sides recently, including April-June 2019, and I did post about that at the time. Maybe you could go and dig out those posts. That would also help me to reconstruct past history.

Ah, now I see.

I occasionally post "trading disclosures", as I call them. Since I don't have an all-encompassing rule book (and I probably never will), the best way to figure out how things are going is keep an eye on those disclosures.

I was trading in that period, but only long positions. Unfortunately I don't have trace of the details. As I said earlier, my shorts only began with the latest bear market in 2018. Originally it was meant as a hedge.


Before 2016 I wasn't trading at all.

My favorites, in no particular order.

*Steamtyme - quotes his prediction and has a nice thank you

Almost missed this one
Twenty-nine, five hundred please
Thanks Mister Mc-G


*DaveWave - self-referential and very haku-ish

I am the last one.
Last ones are the luckiest.
Is this a haiku?


*JimboToronto - a detailed forecast. Jimbo delivers.

One-six-nine-ninety
Autumn rally will fall just short
And then dip slightly.


*kurious - strong reference to WO hats, how not to love this?

The bull will return
And prove holders right
Inevitably

Mic and Eddie’s hats
To be correct by Christmas
Would be delightful


*goldkingcoiner - no figures, but he manages to squeeze some trading advice in 17 syllables. Sweet.

Bitcoin whales lurking.
No pain no fear no shaking.
Leverage shitcoins.


There was no lame-ass haiku in the whole bunch IMO.
We should be proud :-)

EDIT I noticed this isn't in the list at the head of the thread. Maybe too late an addition?


*Globb0 - A crossover haiku: it feels like a limerick for some reason. Weird and tasty!

Mic Gs pants fell off
when he got hold of a cod
Its fine to rape fish

Giving you an exhaustive answer is difficult, especially since I have no historical log of my trading moves - only of the transfers from play stash to cold storage when I accumulate enough profit. I don't remember what I was doing in the time frame you mention. What I remember is that I only started the two legged setups after seeing the mammoths, that is, when I felt the bear paws getting too close for comfort. It was the start of the latest bear market.

In general, I won't open a short out of the blue. Well, I did the first couple of times, during the mammoth era, while I was looking for a workable approach. However, I did have some trading experience already, so I was carefully humble - and probably lucky.  There was no loss. Nowadays when I hold a short position, it always has an opposing long, although sizes can and often do differ.

During an exponential up, I aim at not having any short open. So I set stops - even redundant ones, because fuckery exists. Besides, there are longish periods of rest without a single trade. On the other hand, if I spot a solid uptrend, I open a long position and leave it there or play a simple ladder similar to what you do. It's when it gets choppy, she goes down and my long hurts that I start thinking about a short-lived short. Or alternatively I open both positions almost at the same time, trying to start with the short higher than the long.

At the moment my long is still unhappy, but the short is green. Barely: there's still no room for a stop that leaves me in profit. So I'll let things stay as they are until a clear direction emerges. My SOMA expectation is a bloody weekend with slow, soft recovery on Monday. If things get brutal, my short will pay me a few more pennies. If she skyrockets, I'll lose some on the short (stops in place already), but the long leg will fly unencumbered. It has no stops, but if we get close to 5k I'll reconsider and taper it down before it liquidates (under 4k). In this gloomy scenario, the short will hopefully save my ass.

Summing up, I don't have an exact system. I oscillate between ladder up (basically what you do, only with margin), a double ladder (one up, one down) in times of calm range swings, and furious scalping/rebuilding on the short in times of trouble, when I have a suffering long that needs more support. Which is the current situation. The idea is to have a decently sized short position ready to cash out before the long goes belly up. It needn't necessarily have to make up for the whole loss, as long as it avoids liquidation. If (when!) the price goes back up, I'll regain most of the losses, or gain even more depending on the price trajectory and on my moves - such as possibly increasing my long after I feel the bottom is in, as long as the position remains small compared to the stash size.

Shake up, move down, slide down. The upcoming weekend doesn't look too happy from here.

We might have enough time for both a gloomy weekend and an overall happy October, though.

@Hairy, is your tentative pre-Bakkt hypothesis of a happy October still valid given the present chart situation?

Poker - game of chance?
Are chances or people what
poker's all about?

Yes, I brought the short up to the same size as the long when the price spiked, so their entry points are quite a bit closer now. If she goes down as I think she will, I'll cash out part of the short. If she goes up, I'll cash out part of the long. Ideally when she gets back, I can close both legs and keep the proceeds. Or maybe it will be more complicated, so I'll have to adjust things in progress because she likes to tease a lot. For now it's wait and see.

Jinxing me, brother?? 

Short not too happy yet, but improving slowly at the expense of the long. What's more important to me, my total margin is stable within 0.000004% - yes, that's 1/250,000. I'll cut down the losing branch as soon as she makes a solid move.

Fatman, you probably deserve all the greetings you got.

You had 966 activity. It is known new activity points come each other Wednesday (just a few days after that post). Assuming the random threshold activity to be equally distributed between 775 and 1030, I turned my probe beam to full power. SOMA analysis did the rest.

SOMA analysis: I am not convinced yet. The spike up is a bit too quick and it's coming in a descending sawtooth pattern. The spikes that held their own in the last months were more like a brusque change of curvature in a general uptrend.


That info is both relevant and useful IMHO. Keep on posting!  

Ah... pity for the ignore. He tailored a loving post just for you. It contained solid averaging advice.

@psycodad

First, five syllables
In the middle it's seven
Close with five again.



#haiku

Yo Bob! Maybe you'll be able to solve your cashing out dilemma soon? JJG's advice seems pretty spot on to me: little anxiety, no pain.

More up. Volume not impressive (yet). My long and short are equal now, and their entry points a bit closer than they were. The relaxing feeling of being price agnostic!  

Up or down, it's all the same to me now. I'm expecting down, but I'm often wrong. More wait and see.

EDIT My short can't liquidate because of the way it works. My long liquidates, but it's still well under 4k.