1201
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 16, 2021, 03:25:58 PM
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What a disgusting poll !! And the results almost made me puke...
So do you really think 2.5x from last cycle is current top?? with all the money printing frenzy ?? c'mon!!
The poll is worded carefully. It asks "When do you plan to START...?" The keyword is START. Even if someone has a higher target in mind, locating the top is not easy - actually nearly impossible, it could be argued. So a careful BCA* strategy could be an effective way to extract a preset amount of fiat, hedging against a premature end of the bull cycle. Not that I deem it likely as it is now, or that I need that much fiat in this predicament. Personally, I'm not starting anytime soon, but we all have different circumstances, so it will be interesting to see the poll's results. *Bitcoin Cost Average
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1206
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 15, 2021, 11:36:29 PM
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(note date of this quote)Why does he sold all his coins at the bottom? I can't get it even now. If you have a work and hobby, you can just "forget" about your coins. If it fail, in factnothing will change for you. Yeah, you will regret this all your life "Oh, i could sold it and bought new Cadillac for myself!". But what will be (in fact what already happened in mindrust case) if this will success? If you've sold at the bottom, you will regret your actions much stronger than in if it would fail.
Yes. If you have "a lot" of Bitcoin and it's all just stressful to you, sell 3/4 and put the other 1/4 on a cold wallet in a drawer somewhere. Use the cash wisely, have a good life and if things go well, you'll still end up with more wealth than you'll ever need. I really need the lockdownz to stop:
Where are you located? Lots of places lockdown isn't much of an issue at the moment. I'd be planning a long vacation in Florida if it was stressing me out. Fortunately, it's not too bad here (though we're in the middle of an ice storm right now). (note date of this quote)Yes. If you have "a lot" of Bitcoin and it's all just stressful to you, sell 3/4 and put the other 1/4 on a cold wallet in a drawer somewhere. Use the cash wisely, have a good life and if things go well, you'll still end up with more wealth than you'll ever need.
AKA Never go full fiat. Nice "recursive" editing, Richy
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1207
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 15, 2021, 07:36:48 PM
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I think I actually still have a bit of bitcoin on a couple of pools. Though last time I tried to spend some of the dust I'd accumulated (p2pool), the fees were ridiculous because of so many inputs (and mempool madness, of course). You can filter a low fee transaction trough your own node. Just make sure you make the transaction before you run the node. Also you might have to keep the node running for a month or two till it gets to your transaction. Other n00bs have put a low fee 'by default' just because they are noobs, and you will have to go trough their transactions first before the node reaches yours, good luck with your charity work... but probably in the end it will pay off. How can you slip in a transaction of your choice if it isn't you who "wins" the block? Please explain this a little better if you can.
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1208
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 14, 2021, 04:55:28 PM
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Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it. I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries.
You talk about tracking deliveries as if it is necessary and mission-critical that that use case have blockchain tech attached to it. The last 30+ years of our working "global parcel delivery system" would like to have a word with you. Blockchain not bitcoin: solution looking for a problem that either doesn't exist, or isn't that critical. Bitcoin solves a problem and the problem is what Bitcoin solves.
Statement of the century. I'm not even implying it is necessary to use blockchains in tracking deliveries. I'm just pointing out a field of application where it might be useful to use some kind of blockchain', even if some data could be fake (while for monetary applications, this is obviously unacceptable). In a previous post, I also pointed out how most academic departments sporting "blockchain" in their names very seldom deal with problems connected to deliveries. Rather, they often indulge in studying PoW etc related issues - which don't necessarily have anything to do with blockchains in general. My posts try to show how phony the "blockchain not bitcoin" stance is: people who say they're into "blockchain studies" are usually only interested in THE application of THE Blockchain. In other words, I haven't made any statements about THE Blockchain - in particular, I've never said "blockchain, not bitcoin": I think it's plain BS. I'm baffled by the number (and high quality) of replies effectively contradicting a statement I never made.
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1209
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 14, 2021, 03:27:53 PM
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Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added.
Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake. As someone who pays other people to sanitize databases, I disagree. A large database where you know 1% of the data is invalid but you don’t know which 1%, means you have to validate the entire database from top to bottom for mission critical applications. So any errors in a database can easily invalidate the entire database. It all depends on the severity of the consequences of relying on bad data. For non-mission critical stuff, 90% correct might be just fine. For a blockchain application where people are putting their trust and faith in the blockchain, that sounds mission critical to me. Of course, a certain fraction of bogus data makes a database worthless if you can't locate it and fix or erase it. I'm trying to make a different point: legitimate uses of blockchains - unlike THE blockchain: maybe not permissionless, not PoW based etc - for specific application. An example: tracking deliveries. Admitting you can fake one data point - parcel was here at this time, weight was such-and-such or whatever - you either have to extend the lie OR the world notices something's fishy at the next milestone. All that is required in this case is a posteriori immutability, not absolute accuracy.
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1210
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 14, 2021, 03:21:26 PM
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Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added.
can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles. without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution. https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might. Assassination markets surely do. I discovered an article while researching bitcoin, some time before buying my first. When I first read it, bitcoin was very young (I think the article itself predates Satoshi's public work) and believed to be practically anonymous. The fact that it isn't anonymous is not actually relevant as long as other private coins exist, or privacy can be enhanced with add-ons. There was no Wikipedia article on assassination markets then, but the revolutionary implications of this idea struck a chord. I had a flash of Bitcoin's potential to change the world, finance apart. Here's the article, still in its original form: Assassination Politics. Hang on a second here. Assassination markets have nothing to do with blockchain. Yes they are arguably more efficient when using cryptocurrency but we already know that dark markets get busted / do a runner constantly. So while there is a theoretical argument for assassination markets (which tends to fail in real life), it doesn’t prove the case for blockchain. I meant assassination markets do need decentralized oracles. And an anonymous or anonymizable cryptocurrency.
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1211
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 14, 2021, 04:06:21 AM
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Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added.
Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.
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1212
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 14, 2021, 02:34:42 AM
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Exactly this. Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake. Only currencies do not require anything to be added.
can be fake...maybe...not sure if 100% true due to decentralized oracles. without going into too much detail, here is some info on the underlying problem and an attempt to find a solution. https://medium.com/better-programming/what-is-a-blockchain-oracle-f5ccab8dbd72I am not sufficiently math savvy to ascertain whether it is a real solution or not..js it seems that bitcoin does not need that, but some sidechains might. Assassination markets surely do. I discovered an article while researching bitcoin, some time before buying my first. When I first read it, bitcoin was very young (I think the article itself predates Satoshi's public work) and believed to be practically anonymous. The fact that it isn't anonymous is not actually relevant as long as other private coins exist, or privacy can be enhanced with add-ons. There was no Wikipedia article on assassination markets then, but the revolutionary implications of this idea struck a chord. I had a flash of Bitcoin's potential to change the world, finance apart. Here's the article, still in its original form: Assassination Politics.
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1213
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 13, 2021, 09:46:54 PM
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Indeed. I was just pointing out that the most relevant bit isn't "blockchain" in itself, but all the other cool properties we know, Byzantine generals etc.
MSM and WS need buzzwords to spread hype or FUD. Academia too. "Bitcoin" used to be unspeakable in certain circles, so they focused on this "blockchain" thing, but in most cases they're just as clueless today as they were when "blockchain" was the "real thing".
Then you see whole university departments with 'blockchain' in the name, and all they actually deal with is... permissionless, public, untrusted, PoW-based blockchain(s). They might as well call that 'Bitcoin studies' (capital B Bitcoin).
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1214
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 13, 2021, 09:33:25 PM
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Without bitcoin there is no crypto, no digital currency and no use case of blockchain technology.
To be fair, I think a few use cases for blockchain technology exist - like cryptographically reliable timestamping of certain transactions. The shipment industry could be an example, or the stock market and the clearinghouses behind the curtains, where strict timing and prioritization of trades could be made transparent. The only important property is that you can't touch a past block without invalidating later ones. However, such an unwieldy, inefficient, slow thing as a non-permissioned, fully distributed blockchain, with PoW, ...well, then of course there would be no need. Except for bitcoin
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1215
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 13, 2021, 07:14:51 PM
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Any conspiracy theorists here?
Why would both India (expected) and Nigeria (unexpected) suddenly lurched toward banning or limiting all cryptocurrencies? These two countries have quite a few people, lol.
My conspiratorial explanation is that as WS is getting into bitcoin, it does not want competition for the precious corn. Nigerians were quite into bitcoin, I hear.
Say, a few massive wealth managers quietly talk to IMF or whatever other Central central bank there is, the IMF 'people' whisper something into India and Nigeria regulator's ears and voila-new policies are being enacted and competition to buy corn is lessened. US based hedgies/wealthies probably figured... less for them, more for us.
This all is just a product of my wild imagination, of course.
I propose a simpler explanation. Apparently, both India and Nigeria news were found to lie anywhere between semi-fake and full-fake. So my theory is "just plain old FUD, be it WS or some other entity". The strong point of my explanation is that it's better from Occam's point of view.
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1216
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 13, 2021, 04:04:23 AM
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This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.
When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.
That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.
But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples). It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have. Sure, this might be the case in the beginning, but surely Dabs you are not so naive as to think it will stay that way for very long? As happened with the PMs not long after PM ETFs became a thing, there eventually will be relaxed rules around the underlying Bitcoin asset, eventually relaxed reserve rules and lack of audits/transparency, then re-hypothecation, phantom shares, over-leveraged naked shorting, etc., etc. And the SEC will turn a blind eye to all of it. It will all happen to Bitcoin too eventually, guaranteed. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when. This thought has been rolling around in my head for a long time. I have always been relieved at the absence of an ETF. But whenever I think of it, I also realize there is something different about Bitcoin. It is a digital bearer asset. So people can take custody of it. And so can the firms. How does that change the dynamics of the equation? I mean, It does, doesn't it? I think it does, somewhat, if you can redeem it for the underlying.
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