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1242
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 03, 2021, 07:23:01 PM
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I am holding too. I've been a bitcoiner for some time already, and these self-appointed "diamond hands" are no match for true hodlers.
I even tried to post an according statement on their Reddit. It failed, because everything crypto gets auto-deleted by mod-bots there. IDC, we all know what real diamond hands are, because we grew them. #mindrustnotaffected  I haven't been able to post at all there. Maybe I fail to satisfy some prerequisite, can't be bothered to check actually. I wanted to point out the fact that when the "short ladder" attack is impossible (shorts under bid are blocked today), the price stays put or drifts a little up. I think we must give it some time. The shorters may have bought some $800 puts to limit damages, but they're still bleeding ~15+% interest on their shorts. |
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1243
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 03, 2021, 07:01:25 PM
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EDIT: FYI, on Feb 9th the GME short interest figures will be updated for 2021/02/01. I'm curious if the hedgefunds
really had covered their shorts by that date, as the MSM announced on the weekend.
Exactly. And probably on Feb 17 (19?) there's one more technical deadline that resets the cycle of synthetic long wash trading between conniving shorters, starting a new one. A reckoning of sorts. the situation (2/3 9:30 AM ET):
short interest:
26.39m (51.72% of float) by S3 Shortsight (2/2), 27.14m (53.18% of float) by Ortex (2/2)
short share public availability:
0 (Interactive Brokers)
short share public borrow rate:
19.67% (Ortex)
Shorts have stopped exiting their positions and are maintaining a level of short interest of about 50% of float.
An important fact: just this weekend, this site changed its own accounting rules for short interest. It used to be SI = shorts/float and it was > 100%, as we know. Now it is SI = shorts/(shorts+float) which obviously can NEVER go above 100%. An independent estimate (which I'm not able to link because I didn't bookmark it) says that we are around SI = 120%. There are different estimates ranging from ~50% (absolute minimum) up. EDIT2: But even if they got out, i will keep holding. I'll ride this horse until it drops dead. Yee-Ha!!! (Yes, you can call me "retard", IDC) The folks on WSB call this "weaponized autism". I love that I am holding too. I've been a bitcoiner for some time already, and these self-appointed "diamond hands" are no match for true hodlers. |
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1245
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 03, 2021, 05:40:51 PM
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/r/wallstreetbets moderators being so blindly negative on Bitcoin ultimately turned me off their entire community and activism.
It's all fine. It's probably just the auto-mod-bot. They turned on an auto-mod bot to take care of 5 million new users who probably post stuff they're not supposed to, including anything crypto / bitcoin. There is a sister reddit called satoshistreetbets or something, but it's significantly smaller. I'm just holding my meme stock since it's worthless at this point and just need something to get squeezed, and as long as DFV is still holding his. My meme stock isn't "worthless" yet. Soon we will have more reliable short interest data (old, but real - not estimates). Until HFs are out of the pit, the squeeze can still be squoze. BTW, no big dip today ATM, it's holding its ground just fine. Oh, it may be just a coincidence that the NYSE had to stop shorting at prices under the current best bid? It's automatic after a stock has a daily drop larger than 10%. |
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1246
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 03, 2021, 05:31:54 PM
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But...bbut...the media has spent nearly every day for the past 9 years saying Bitcoin was a scam, a fraud? That it had no future? Were they...lying to us?  Damn, I was really planning to spend my bags on coke and guns. You mean, there's legal opportunities using Bitcoin?  No CP? That's the #1 use case for that crim token. |
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1247
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 03, 2021, 05:16:43 PM
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A successful, viable blockchain project is one where:
1) You absolutely need the blockchain part, and could not substitute another cleaner, faster, perhaps even cheaper tech to do it better or to replicate the same tech/functionality.
2) The token part serves some purpose other than a form of money or money transfer.
3) The solution is not still looking for a problem that either doesn't exist, or is not really a problem in the real world.
4) The solution is routinely used by hundreds of thousands of people and companies everyday around the world, 24/7/365. Because it is an awesome solution.
Most blockchain projects fail #1 and #2 right out of the gate.
All of them fail #3 and #4, even if they are "working".
+1 WOsMerits Their mantra is "blockchain, not bitcoin" remember?
Or perhaps, "blockchain, not token" because they believe the token part is irrelevant to the holier than thou blockchain tech. Yet they sell tokens anyway. And without the token they would have nothing.
Sure, blockchain is an important part of Bitcoin but it is no more important than decentralization, proof-of-work, peer-to-peer networking, pseudonymity, or limited supply. Those who hate these attributes of Bitcoin are quick to jump on "blockchain tech" to try to explain away Bitcoin's success. If only they could patent it and license it out to other companies. How dare Bitcoin not have a CEO, shareholders, a brick-and-mortar headquarters, and a website. +1 WOsMerits |
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1248
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 02, 2021, 09:35:30 PM
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We need to earn on DEXes-that's the real way forward.
The "best" DEXes are on non-bitcoin chains / networks. You know it. I know it. But would you actually turn your BTC corns into something else? The "safest" is to just be a liquidity provider for the stable coins so you don't get any impermanent losses, since both of them will be almost at the same value for as long as you leave it there. I mean, 1 USDT = 1 USDC = 1 DAI (or other dollar stablecoin) or very close to it. However, stablecoins negate the anti-inflation, store of value function that is probably bitcoin's first strength right now. Even so, I doubt anyone gives 5%-10% yearly interest for any stablecoin. |
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1250
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 02, 2021, 05:33:20 PM
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I get a strange feeling that some folks here, who are already (or will be shortly) rich off-of bitcoin, are engaging in self-defeating trades in all that ws or s-coin crap (be it GME, amc, silver, doggie, whatever). Why?
Because you have a bit of extra money?
In jest?
To show 'tha man'?
Decrease your profit % so you can engage in conversations with those who made "just" 30% last year?
What is the most popular vibe?
My dope of choice ATM: GME - Bit of extra money, just a dash of diversification. - Stick it to the man all right No jest, no intentional profit burning. A sensible bet, moderate in amount and with highly asymmetrical stakes. The asymmetry reminds me of... oh well, you know what I'm talking about, you've been onboard for a long time. What makes the bet sensible is that the numbers are totally f'd up, and several independent sources report levels of short interest surpassing not only GME's float, but even its whole market capitalization. If half of this is true, there'll be blood when they scramble to cover. And they will. They're already bleeding from daily interest and have tried to suppress the price for over a week. Maybe the SEC will start sniffing around now that the thing is out in the news and several reps have written asking for investigations. The only question is: will the redditor apes manage to hold the stock while the price is so volatile, or will they give in and be content with just a paltry profit? In other words: the outcome, as in our favorite formerly asymmetrical bet, depends on the strength of the hands that hold. Notice I reserve the alternative spelling of "hold" to the other asset  |
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1254
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2021, 06:07:23 PM
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In your opinion, what are they using this extra cash for? - Paying interest on borrowed (shorted) stock. - Actually unrolling the shorts and buying up, swallowing losses (but the price apparently drifts down, therefore unlikely). - Reinstating some of the long positions they unrolled to pay up last week. - Playing tricks (short ladders) trying to push down the price, hoping to ultimately win - but at the same time adding rope to be hanged with if they fail. - Something I haven't thought of, which is probably even more devious. They claim the $2.4B ask was because the clearing house hit them up with a $3B bill for extra reserve collateral. Which they then claim that they negotiated down it to a mere $700M. To that I would then ask, "So what was the other $1.7B needed for then? Hmmm?" "We weren't sure they'd get us off the hook for the remaining 1.7B" (Hypothetical reply, just to keep you going. I still am not clear what you think is going on.) |
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1255
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2021, 05:50:00 PM
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In your opinion, what are they using this extra cash for? - Paying interest on borrowed (shorted) stock. - Actually unrolling the shorts and buying up, swallowing losses (but the price apparently drifts down, therefore unlikely). - Reinstating some of the long positions they unrolled to pay up last week. - Playing tricks (short ladders) trying to push down the price, hoping to ultimately win - but at the same time adding rope to be hanged with if they fail. - Something I haven't thought of, which is probably even more devious. |
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1256
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2021, 04:55:09 PM
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Everyone says stupid shit from time to time. None of us are immune from the occasional moment of stupidity, his are just very public. The fact is, he is changing the world the same way BTC is. You have to give him credit for that at the very least. I'm with lightfoot on the open source thing though. It's my ass being driven around, I'd like to know what the driver is "thinking". It will likely never happen though. I see two reasons off the top of my mind. 1. Keeping trade secrets. This could seem moot, given that actual production has a deep moat - high entry level, but think of copycat Chinese factories. Tesla knockoffs at 1/3 the price? 2. Regulation. This is much tougher. Once the car is smart enough to mind speed limits etc. for you, do you think traffic authorities will be keen to give up that level of control? Let you hack the "engine" at your will? Forget it. I see your point, and I like the idea of Open Source, but I don't think you will be able to really know what the driver is "thinking"... Having access to code does not mean one can easily understand it, especially if it's complex code. Sometimes I have difficulty understanding my own code, written maybe a year before. And my code is full of carefully written comments and documentation, so beautiful it's almost a work of art. But if it's very complex, it won't be so easy to run it in your head and understand it fully. Usually, Open Source relies on larger entities, like universities or research institutions, auditing and evaluating the code, which is OK, but you'll still be relying on others to tell you what the driver is "thinking", to the best of their abilities... IMHO, it's not likely to happen, for many reasons, some of which you've already outlined. Yes, I have no hope to be able to understand the code in its entirety. A team of smart people, spread around the world, could manage to find bugs, make improvements etc., like most open source communities do. My hope to see what the driver is "thinking" didn't even extend to a communal/emerging understanding of such a huge, complicated OS. Small improvements in the auto braking system... hacking the current flow to allow for smoother operation, or more powerful/uncontrollable acceleration... small things like that is what I had in mind. Not things like disregarding one way streets, traffic lights or zebra crossings. However, I'll bet most of the higher level functions are based on deep learning, so access to the code without the huge training data is probably pointless. One can dream though... |
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1257
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2021, 04:24:58 PM
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I'm done with WOsMerits, too - at least for today. I've got some... uh... technical problems to issue more. (Brrrr WOsMerit print factory margin called)Ah! Found a solution. I sold a few put options on sMerits for WOsMerit, so I have a tasty premium in my margin account. So I can invest THAT. In case anyone wants to observe other walls for a change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQbg_WU-0AQIt's a live stream of level 2 data for GME and other meme stocks. Not sure how long this channel will stay online though, as I presume level 2 data is usually not supposed to be freely available. +1 WOsMerit What could possibly go wrong? |
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1259
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2021, 03:57:48 PM
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Everyone says stupid shit from time to time. None of us are immune from the occasional moment of stupidity, his are just very public. The fact is, he is changing the world the same way BTC is. You have to give him credit for that at the very least. I'm with lightfoot on the open source thing though. It's my ass being driven around, I'd like to know what the driver is "thinking". It will likely never happen though. I see two reasons off the top of my mind. 1. Keeping trade secrets. This could seem moot, given that actual production has a deep moat - high entry level, but think of copycat Chinese factories. Tesla knockoffs at 1/3 the price? 2. Regulation. This is much tougher. Once the car is smart enough to mind speed limits etc. for you, do you think traffic authorities will be keen to give up that level of control? Let you hack the "engine" at your will? Forget it. |
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