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1401  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2021, 04:32:49 PM
I had another chat with my friend, the gal who likes to discuss savings/stock market with me. Classical weak hands type.

-snip-

At the end she said "Oh thank you. But you know, call me chicken but I won't."

I'm pretty sure she'll come around. She'll probably want some at 50k. What could I reply to that?

"Of course you're free to do as you please. Bitcoiners say 'Have fun staying poor' "

I'm not trying to convert nocoiners to bitcoiners anymore: tried many times but failed. Most of them ignored me, some bought BCH and sold it later. I'm not trying to save your soul anymore, you should get it yourself. Fuck off, you don't deserve it...  Grin

You're probably right. I, too, have long forgone any evangelism. But this chick does care about her financial future, we've been talking money and stocks for a long time, she seemed so helpless... well, I failed and told her.

I'll be sure to poke her some more at 100k. She does deserve it if she doesn't get any btc and clings to her losing strategy of buying stocks and selling at the first dip wondering why she didn't pick the "really magic stock".
1402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2021, 04:18:32 PM
I had another chat with my friend, the gal who likes to discuss savings/stock market with me. Classical weak hands type. I wrote about her a while back, on Dec 7, 2020. Price was around the old ATH @19k . (here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55770951#msg55770951 )

Today she wrote me and started with a message like "Why is Bit coin rising? The government should ban it cuz launder drug money blah blah".

My first replies were curt.  "Bitcoin: one word or you'll sound like a noob. The primary cleaning agent for laundering is USD by far."

Then she said: "I am afraid, blah blah, so many types of bitcoin, how do I buy blah blah"

I was gentler. "Only one kind, ticker is XBT or BTC. The other 'types' look cheaper because they're junk. Don't touch them."

I went on - You need to open an account at an exchange. Try Bitstamp or Kraken. Avoid Coinbase if you can. You'll need to go through KYC/AML, money laundering my ass. Once you have a bunch, you'll need to make yourself a wallet and transfer them into your own possession. Bitcoiners say "Not your keys, not your coins".

Long story short, I held up to her barrage of questions and gave her a crash course. More than anything, I told her to buy and hold. I spelt it wrong, just like this: hold. She's not advanced enough yet to be taught proper spelling. I said it might go down. I'm pretty sure it will go down and you'll suffer. That is when you have to buy more. That's the difference between happy and sad in the long run.

At the end she said "Oh thank you. But you know, call me chicken but I won't."

I'm pretty sure she'll come around. She'll probably want some at 50k. What could I reply to that?

"Of course you're free to do as you please. Bitcoiners say 'Have fun staying poor' "

1403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2021, 01:42:03 AM
Can you see the pattern, gents?

First, Mnuchin & co. try to sneak in a rule (with actual power of law) to mandate disclosure of noncustodial wallets - that's the "your keys" part in "not your keys, not your coins". The personal wallets, d'oh. I reposted an invitation to comment while there's time. The time, by the way, is unusually short and goes against established practice and customs. Here's my appeal repost.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55991999#msg55991999

Then, all privacy coins get an unprecedented wave of delistings. Not only dubious stuff like zcash, but actual solid coins with a history of actual use. I'm talking Monero, my favorite altcoin personally.

I support kurious's idea of boycotting exchanges that delist legitimate coins without a reason. Were they really served with a gag order? We will likely never know, but the whole thing smells funny. I don't like it a bit.

Happy New Year, brothers!

Allow me a little rant?

TPTB are increasingly making things difficult for us 'plebs' to act freely and do as we please as we have been able to thus far.  

Today, Bittrex just gave 14 days notice (they normally give 30) of de-listing privacy coins - including Monero, which is a top 20 market cap, and IMHO an honest traditional and respected POW coin.  

You may not hold this coin of course, so you may think it doesn't matter.  But it is the creeping march of an increasingly controlled market wishing to become all seeing and all-knowing, which will enable it to squeeze out what it cannot control; Like, well - you and me.

Just be aware that your right to any kind of privacy means nothing any more, unless of course you are a major institution engaging in their 'normal' institutional practice.

If we have any power it is surely to boycott exchanges that act against our interests.  Exchanges like Bittrex should not be able to act against honest customers' buying preferences without some pushback.  If you care - boycott Bittrex and don't let them do what they want with your Bitcoins, your shitcoins or your privacy.
In a few years, ordinary people like us won't be able to even participate in the market without accreditation at this rate.  
 
Is that what we wanted, is that what Satoshi wanted?  Is this it?  I really hope not.  But while we still have power (when exchanges want our coins) let's think about who we give our coins to, eh?  Without our coins they are finished.

Let's not sleep through a total takeover of the market and a mission creep that is intended to gradually squeeze us out?

Fuck Bittrex.  
/rant.

+1 WOsMerit.

I wish I had some 'boring' smerits to give, but it's not that important. It's important that we act a little, at least to let somebody know we are not pleased with this state of affairs. One day we will be more influent, and we won't forget.
1404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2021, 01:30:06 AM
Sometimes governments seem to forget who's the employer (taxpayers) and who's the employees (politicians and civil servants).

Don't you just hate insubordinate employees?

+1 WOsMerit

We pay them with money and privileges so they can help us.
Never forget.

I wish they could be held responsible for f***ing up. I mean criminally and civilly responsible. The only language humans really understand.
1405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 04:06:03 PM
And these. Heed Millionero's call, boys!

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

For some ideas to make your comments effective, I found Jake Chervinsky and Ben Davenport helpful
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1340135041746300932
https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014
1406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 04:03:46 PM
The Treasury Department is pulling a fast one.  The shit is going down.
This new regulation will cripple crypto.
Best explanation I've seen so far  https://twitter.com/bendavenport/status/1344341036412203014

After you're through celebrating the New Year and goggling at helicopter memes, please comment here:
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

After this rule gets finalized, there will be no going back.

Can't merit, I'm out.

+1 WOsMerit.

Leave an articulate comment there, bros! I already did.
1407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 01:28:40 AM
Arrie... Arrie... your friend shouldn't play with fire if he doesn't know what he's doing (I assume it's a he).
1408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 12:56:09 AM
"Never mind the bollocks"  Cheesy
I just shot some sexist humor at her, after making sure the "humor" part was deserved. As for the NPC sexism... the world is a cruel place, more so if you're an arrogant idiot.

"General pundit"... that bit triggered me. In the quality of a "General" pundit, could you please summarize "General Relativity" for us without using superior math? All right, I agree it's too hard a question. You're allowed to use complicated math if you really need it.  Tongue

Oh the BS on twitter...
1409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 12:43:26 AM
I can understand Coindesk, often full of garbage. But the Economist?? She really must have hidden skills.
1410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 12:21:56 AM
Meanwhile, the Twitter scene keeps on having fun with this one: https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1344606082178674690?s=19

Bitcoin is scarce but stupidity is infinite  Roll Eyes

Is she the CEO of something? Maybe an investment fund? Just asking. If so, I can guess how she got there.

I don’t know her and, frankly, prefer to keep it that way  Kiss

Yes I can see that.

Quote
Writer, speaker and general pundit. Wrote a book about QE. Currently writing a book about banking. Sings a bit too.
Always right, never believed.

She forgot to mention "arrogant as few".

Someone ought to tell her that's NOT how you're supposed to use a microphone. That's not "singing", madam! Ehmm...
Luckily it was a sturdy MD421. Quite a big mic.
1411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 09:57:54 PM
Meanwhile, the Twitter scene keeps on having fun with this one: https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1344606082178674690?s=19

Bitcoin is scarce but stupidity is infinite  Roll Eyes

Is she the CEO of something? Maybe an investment fund? Just asking. If so, I can guess how she got there.
1412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 03:06:42 PM


This is Bitcoin 29k compared with Bitcoin google search, and it will be sweet if things continue to go this way and trend goes up more.
Be ready for anything in Bitcoin market  Smiley

I suspect This Time Is Different(TM) in this regard, too: google searches should correlate less than they used to, because most of the public is more aware now than they used to be in the 2017 bull. I might be totally off track, though.
1413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 02:16:39 PM
MacLeod's latest

Leaving the Bitcoin Vs Gold discussion aside, he is really tying his credibility to a currency event occurring soon. Perhaps there are supporting factors like the FED hiding obvious jumps in money aggregators just like preventive hiding of the M3 numbers in 2006 just before Quantitive Easing. Is he taking a brave but perhaps foolish position?

Excellent read, thanks Wekkel.

Echo chamber gung-ho and btc fanatism aside, the scenario portrayed is gloomy but plausible. If all the predictions made in that paper come true, there will be gangs of starving bandits raiding cities and country. The citadel model - à la Snow Crash - cannot hold, unless we develop and deploy atomic guard dogs soon (Boston Dynamics, hellooo?).

I hope he's only half right. Even with bitcoin to the moon, we might be better off in a world that still makes sense.

2021 will be as interesting as 2020. Let's hope it leads us in a different direction.
1414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 12:24:40 AM
Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?
AFAIK, there are no such instruments, currently.

--useful info snipped for brevity--

+1 WOsMerit.

Oops... it's "thank you" in English  Grin
1415  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 12:06:28 AM
Not even a zero in the hash. Well, one. That node's got problems for sure.
1416  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:30:12 PM
Corn is bigger than Berkshire Hathaway.

Poor Warren Buffett. Cool
I'd have to think before trading a bitcoin for a share of BRK-A. Might blow past it anytime now....

(Jesus this is fun)
I would do it immediately. As in "right now, or I might change my mind tomorrow."  Wink
1417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:29:06 PM
... the schrödinger cat of money. ...

Interesting but I think it won’t satisfy the Keyenesians. They will point out that the fact that one Bitcoin (or a fraction) increases in value is the dreaded deflation, killing business (and newborn kitties). This is the point one needs to counter.

I agree they won't be satisfied, that's why I jumped straight to rehypothecation  Smiley
1418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:28:09 PM
is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too.

The only thing I can think right now, off the top of my head, is moving the coins to a multisig where the original creditor (the first ETF buyer in my example) can veto any movement; for example, a 2-of-2.
1419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:15:10 PM
keynesians argue that the inelasticity of the gold supply was crippling economic growth during gold standard times in the 19th century. that is the origin of the narrative of deflation being negative for the economy. and there is definitely some truth to this.

the trick is that in fiat the elasticity is displayed in front of the dot, more money units are needed, leading to inflation. with bitcoin the elasticity is moving to the right side of the dot, making whole bitcoin more valuable without inflation.

Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

I'm sure that given the ongoing custom - habits are hard to break - most of the traditional finance world won't take "move inflation the other way - to the right of the decimal dot" so easily. They'd rather rehypothecate, as they are doing for gold and for derivatives based on gold (basically paper money). This is as close to double spending as you can get with btc - through a layer of obfuscating paper. Much too close for my taste.

Once TPTB have their hands on bitcoin, they will come up with new and ingenious ways to keep doing old, disingenuous deeds. One way to avoid that would be a simple way to make sure each satoshi is only hypothecated once, if at all.

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too. And a loan. And some enterprise capital in some other firm. If such information is easy to find automatically, we can be relatively sure that there will be stern laws against re-hypothecation, and they will be inflexibly enforced.
1420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 10:26:54 PM
Apparently, golfers are also prone to boating accidents...




This guy could even be one clever WO-er!
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