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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 26, 2020, 07:25:31 PM
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25K to 100K is not really "price action", it's a huge amount of money that needs to pour in. 250K, well, it's even much more bigger !
But I will not bet against it either.
It's not just about money. If supply is very reduced because few people are willing to sell and also because of the deflationary nature of bitcoin, less money is needed to make the price go up. The flip side being that if nobody sells, the price can't go up anymore either ! I think it would be a great sign if nobody wanted to sell a single bitcoin at a certain price. It will never happen though. There is plenty of supply available, the price just needs to get to the point where it shakes some loose. For instance, I'm guessing more than half of the bitcoin ever created would be available for sale right now at $1million each. There is no shortage. It just seems like it because the price is so low. Who would sell now when they know what the next year has in store? The question is: why "old school" money managers from Citi to Fidelity now gave btc price targets (next year!!) of 300-400K or even more? From my previous encounters with finance, analysts loath making predictions of more than 2X current price, with 30-50% up or down being the most typical. Here they went 15-20X. I am not sure why? Maybe they've seen it happen already, and some of them would like to be able to say "I predicted THIS in 2020"? One possible explanation is they are trying to make the curve to go hyper-exponential, then pull the "rug" from under and collapse it.
Or, maybe, really strong WS money already accumulated enough in $5K-20K range and now want a rapid rise to cash out.
There must be some play here, but what is it?
Very appropriate question. I understand - and partly share - your mistrust of Wall Street elites speaking out like this. Unfortunately, reading the mind of sharks is not easy. Can they really be so coordinated? Of course, it is possible that me are witnessing financial "regime change", but much more data is needed to support this.
Serious people have said that the only thing that can stop btc is very high interest rates.
In one playbook they will go for high inflation, causing btc to climb super high, then as inflation is established, smash btc down by sudden increase in the interest rates: going from super negative real rates that we see at the moment to positive rates, which would mean, say, 10-15% interest rates a la Volcker shock.
Possible, but is it likely? I am not able to attach a figure to this. Again, can they be so coordinated? Any disaligned country (and I'm sure there would be more than one) would stand to reap lots of benefits. Is this compatible with an evil plan to rule the world? Maybe we should ask Stewie. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 26, 2020, 05:33:47 PM
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A sobering note. Some self-appointed gurus note that the volume is low, even for the weekend, so this might look like a local top. I say: it would make sense for the badger to take a breather even if we know he don't care. On the other hand, in the weekend - and especially on Boxing Day - institutional investors are supposed to be sitting on their hands. Well I guess we'll see soon enough. Local top or not, the mid term scenario doesn't change all that much  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 25, 2020, 10:26:17 PM
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It might feel nice to treat a shitcoin badly, but as I said before, don't expect to be treated any differently by the populace at large when our time comes (to be under some kind of pressure) and it will come at some time with 99% probability. I don't care to post it, but many attack vectors are theoretically possible and I don't like any of them.
However, I still hold btc since I think that in almost all cases we eventually persevere.
The difference, I think, is the level of commitment and resilience. Are we comparing shitcoiners and bitcoiners? Seriously? and what about bitshitcoiners? Neologisms bitshitcoiner, what's that mean? batshit-crazy peeps? #haiku |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 25, 2020, 10:02:21 PM
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It might feel nice to treat a shitcoin badly, but as I said before, don't expect to be treated any differently by the populace at large when our time comes (to be under some kind of pressure) and it will come at some time with 99% probability. I don't care to post it, but many attack vectors are theoretically possible and I don't like any of them.
However, I still hold btc since I think that in almost all cases we eventually persevere.
The difference, I think, is the level of commitment and resilience. Are we comparing shitcoiners and bitcoiners? Seriously? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 24, 2020, 12:31:54 AM
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It connects to the security narrative. 1 to 2 dimensional thinkers can't see why POW is so damn efficient and such a GOOD use of energy, that will actually transform the entire power industry in 50 years. But there is ZERO chance for a distributed system, much less a decentralized one without it.
Care to explain your reasoning why a system like POS can't work? (genuinely interested) Seriously: POS is never so resilient as POW. Imagine if a few large stakers are cut out from the network, even temporarily. Reorgs galore. Or what happens if keys for large stakes are lost/stolen? POW is Darwinism at proof. Oops, Darwinism at work. The ensuing arms race *ensures* users get the best security that can be bought. As cAPSLOCK stated a few posts above, this could in turn lead to a perfect rationalization of the energy market as a collateral effect. I'm no expert. This is just what I could come up with quickly. I'm sure someone else will give more detailed answers to your worthy question. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 24, 2020, 12:22:26 AM
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It connects to the security narrative. 1 to 2 dimensional thinkers can't see why POW is so damn efficient and such a GOOD use of energy, that will actually transform the entire power industry in 50 years. But there is ZERO chance for a distributed system, much less a decentralized one without it.
Care to explain your reasoning why a system like POS can't work? (genuinely interested) It's the acronym. POS coins are mostly a POS. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 23, 2020, 06:28:50 PM
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It's all peachy, but our leading indicator (GBTC) suggests a 4% drop.
Y'all think that it is irrelevant, but a large coin losing almost 50% because of lawsuit (even before any verdict) is (or should be) unnerving to btc as well.
Who knows what other lawsuits are in the pipeline or be concocted shortly?
Peculiar large coin they kept printing and selling that's a large shitcoin. #haiku |
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