1181
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 20, 2021, 02:37:56 PM
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I partially agree but he says himself it is not geared toward the scientific community and being peer reviewed, it is instead directed to the german public. Therefor it is written in german and not in english, so there is no danger that somebody who might have an actual clue reads it.
... except for the wealthy elite of the future (and of the present too, it seems), having crazy but advanced discussions in the best bitcoin thread in the world, with moles in every country who can pick up interesting stuff and have it translated for their fellows.
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1182
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 20, 2021, 02:34:46 PM
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I think the jury is still out on this one. We will know only in time, say a few years - if we even get to know anything at all. The original paper doesn't have an abundance of scientific (virologic) data, true, but even the Bayesian analysis based only on broadly known facts makes me think. Facts such as where the plague started, how many laboratories of that kind China has, how many accidents are known to have happened in that laboratory, how many coronaviruses have adenovirus traces in their genetic makeup etc. Call me paranoid all you like, I'm keeping my tinfoil hat on.
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1185
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 20, 2021, 01:26:09 AM
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>>>>Arthur Hayes might be a crook<<<<<< I still sent you an smerit d_eddie but I remain a bit bothered by your description of Hayes - even though such description is not technically inaccurate, it just seems to be playing too much into mainstream (and of course powers that be government) vilification of him. Maybe "fugitive from the law" would be less harsh, but whatever... just thought that it is worth a comment - and sure, I might change my mind later, but I tentatively consider the USA case against Bitmex, Hayes and some of the others to be strong-arm bullying tactics, even if the USA govt might be justified in many of their concerns, perhaps? perhaps? My assertion that he might be a crook is not based on any factual evidence: just a few grumbling users suggesting their huge trades had been front-run, or that their liquidation (on a derivative position) was unjustified given the comparatively smaller swings in the underlying (corn). They thought and suggested that the order book was being "rocked" by some whale, in cahoots with Bitmex management etc. I have no idea how truthful or reliable those allegations are. My personal experience with Bitmex has always been a good one. I even got a "reverse margin call" once, with one of the staff taking me to Skype to advise I could take a little profit out (which I did). I just felt like a disclaimer was necessary. In the USA vs. Hayes thing, I'm all with Hayes without a doubt. I agree it's plain bullying. The homepage explicitly said "If you are a USA citizen you can't register". Should they enforce it at a cost? They are not breaking any local laws in the country where they're registered. This, however, has little or no bearing with the quality of that blog, always rich with technical insight, usable advice, and behind-the-scenes views of all the crypto/fintech world, with a strong (almost exclusive) emphasis on bitcoin. It is one of the few no-bullshit outlets of information about bitcoin and bitcoin trading. Apart from this month's piece about WSB etc., it is recommended reading in general.
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1186
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 19, 2021, 01:38:45 AM
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Motley and fools got separated, then reacquainted.
The Motley Fool really sound like a bunch of fools. Most of what they do is mentioning Buffett in their clickbait titles. Boring reading, with very little useful info. Now they saw the light about bitcoin. Oh, let's throw a party for them! I liked the piece by Arthur Hayes I just linked a couple of posts above. There's always been little complacency in what he writes. Even less now that he got fucked by the government big time.
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1191
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2021, 11:54:39 AM
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A new hero has arrivedThe helicopter road map is very nice as well.... using it in personal friend groups as well If that’s allowed ? Not to nitpick, but this road map looks wrong. The helicopter is falling to higher btc prices? Is it a dollarcopter? If so, maybe it could be labeled as such, with a conspicuous dollar sign or something. Alternatively, the numbers could be arranged upside down, with higher numbers at the top. And gratz for heroing, vroom! Long due for a long time, no-nonsense WO member.
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1192
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2021, 11:48:03 AM
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My point is that you can spy all you want, but when another miner picks up a transaction involving your "banned" address, the transaction has one chance to get on chain. Give it time, and it eventually will. Are you suggesting to fork to keep those addresses out, are you unaware of how bitcoin works, or are you just taking the piss?
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1194
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2021, 11:34:06 AM
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A lot of talk about tulips here I see. Of course what a lot of people don't know is that the Tulip story is not what they think it is. See the following paper (unfortuantly locked, scihub might have a free version). https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-006-9074-4Abstract:
The famous tulipmania, which saw the reported prices of several breeds of tulip bulbs rise to above the value of a furnished luxury house in 17th century Amsterdam, was an artifact created by an implicit conversion of ordinary futures contracts into option contracts in an imperfectly successful attempt by Dutch futures buyers and public officials to bail themselves out of previously incurred speculative losses in the impressively price-efficient, fundamentally driven, market for Dutch tulip contracts. There was thus nothing maniacal about prices in this period. Despite outward appearances, the tulipmania was not a bubble because bubbles require the existence of mutually-agreed-upon prices that exceed fundamental values. The “tulipmania” was simply a period during which the prices in futures contracts had been legally, albeit temporarily, converted into options exercise prices. Interesting read, thanks somac. Read more about 17th century Dutch tulips mania here
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1196
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 18, 2021, 01:58:57 AM
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When do we start banning specific bitcoin addresses of certain people or entities from entering our 'specific Citadel' or our 'network of Citadel systems'. Do we have an alternative blockchain that is just for having a database of "blacklist-addresses" from alternative crypto networks or also BTCitcoin?? Censoring bitcoin, sure. Easy. Go ahead! (yes I think too much...)
I didn't write that
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1199
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 16, 2021, 04:40:55 PM
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Fuck my long was cancelled before execution because of insufficient margin (too little BTC in the marginpool) on Kraken. It was only 1.6 BTC so they must be really low on BTC's.
I'm honestly sorry for your cancelled long but this is r e a l l y g o o d n e w s !As xhomerx10 said, good news indeed. The ask book is too thin on Kraken. I suspect the situation is similar everywhere. That's why I doubted we could slice through 50k like butter right now: someone wants to sweep out the leveraged longs first (nudge nudge, hint hint @Torque and the others). So I'd say: expect a brutal down wick - possibly even into the low 40k's - before 50k gets crossed at speed. The psychological barrier is done with already.
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1200
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 16, 2021, 04:36:18 PM
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Fuck. Seeing $4x,xxx is so boring...
I want at least a 5 in front of a 5-digit number.
Or a 6-digit number (whatever the front digit).
Though, my dear, some front digits are better than others, I'd say in a gentlemanly manner. More port? EDIT - By Jupiter! Mr. Dabs was faster than I. I'll just sip on this port a little longer.
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