Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?
Who the hell would bet in favor of BFL? PG. PG went to the promised land, he won't be betting on BFL to finish on time either. |
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Where are you? I want to come to pick up
This is where the deal will die  |
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Wow a Jala has 2 - 4Gh chips inside and you managed to get more than the physical limit.
Amazing!
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i buy same b3 4 modules here for 35 BTC 12 days ago
now 25 or 27 btc max if you want sell here
it s not ebay here.
can I do the same deal? i m not in USA but EU Yes we assumed that.  |
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I'm ready to buy them with price no more than 0.75BTC
That is my number exactly, but by October it will be less |
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Do we have a betting pool running anywhere?
Who the hell would bet in favor of BFL? |
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Thursday Update: Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped today, Last time was Aug 30thLittle Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012 no LS shipped today, Last time was Sept 3rdSingles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 26, 2012 pay date 7 days of progress (need 14 days to make end of Sept) MiniRigs: June 24 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 20 orders 2nd 500 gh/s August 15 for 1st 500 g/s units Just 1 day for Mini-Rigs 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 175 299 Days of Little Singles [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 247 254 257 404 days of Singles [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 310 430 days of Mini-rig orders. [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+23:59:59UTC |
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I'm waiting for next weeks' shipping reports, after the new assemblers come online. That should give us the best picture to date. By Wed or Thurs we'll know.
Thanks for the feedback. If they have 8 assemblers today, and will have 8 more next week. I guess I am a simpleton, but twice the production? Even that sadly is not enough to get to the end of April in 18 days. Again unless there is something I am missing. So next week they get out 6 days of orders each day, by next week they need to get 20 days out each day (average) |
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A lot of companies are now making PCI-e cards that can mine Bitcoins. They look like graphic cards that you can plug into your PCI-e slots in your computer motherboards. The cards will also have USB slots you can plug in. They come in various speed: Due to the Bitcoin difficulty increased over 86+ Millions, the price of these cards will be much cheaper than most Bitcoin mining machines out there. 10 GH/s card - $50 to $100 60 Gh/s card - $200 to $400 100 Gh/s card - $500 to $1200 500 Gh/s card - $1200 to $2500 Public Note: Some of these bitcoin mining cards are FPGA cards that are programed to communicate with the motherboards' PCI-e slots. Related thread: USB block erupters are now useless. $5 - $7 each.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277330.0Textbook Troll. The OP is making all this up out of thin air. |
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Read the stuff in between.
These are first run prototypes.
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You paid BTC10 and you want BTC30 and the Diff will be 100M in a week?
if you get BTC12 you will be lucky.
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wow 2.1btc?! for 2.5GH?....um....
Can get 11GH for 4btc....
DUH really? |
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I say well done to Big Picture Mining Cooperative for producing this product in the timescale they did. I am quite comfortable with the idea of letting BPMC mine rather than sell. Now they have shown it is possible, I look forward to seeing a second run at (hopefully) a lower price. I don't expect an extreme ROI but a price closer to break even (for us) would be easier to contemplate.
Alas, this thread also shows how easily disappointment can turn to anger.
The reason is that everyone is waiting for a reasonably priced piece of hardware that is ready to ship. Pricing out of the ballpark for anyone who is reasonable leads to anger because everyone wants to get into the game but doesn't want to get ripped off in the process. What people said a little ways up is true, you could easily unload every last piece at a price reasonable to market price of BTC as well as ROI expectations. Selling these at an absurd premium means you'll have less chance of selling them later and can only rely on what mining profit they will provide. People are angry because at every turn there are opportunities for people to sell hardware for a fair price, however everyone in the BTC hardware sales side of things seems to value their own greed over anything else. And there is a sucker born every minute, so people will buy with no chance of making their money back. May as well ask people to send me $100 and I'll send you back $80 once the funds clear, that's about the offer here, except you get hardware alongside it. That's not the offer here. My guess is that at BTC2.1 each they are just breaking even on their costs. It's sort of like the pharmaceutical industry, when you develop a new medication, the first pill costs 1 billion dollars and the second one is 8 cents. Same here. They had to buy chips at a very expensive price, they did a short run of boards, which means they were probably 10 bucks each and then they had to be assembled. Circuit design, components, etc it all adds up. Clearly you can't charge BTC90 for the first one and BTC0.75 for the next one, the cost has to be spread across all of them. These folks are not flush in cash to where they can have long term vision and plan to build thousands of them and spread the cost across future sales, they have to spread it across what they have in hand. There are no lost leaders, you have to at least break even. There is no long term vision in Bitcoins, and that is because Bitcoins change daily. |
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yes I guess the only thing I would have done differently is not hype it.
If you knew the price was to be over $100 a GH just say that you offering to sell prototypes at close to cost and for me,
the best way to get rid of these is a deal where I buy them at this price and in October I get a special price on an equal amount at a much better price.
For example, I'd buy 5 @ BTC2.1 each today and you commit to producing more in October and sell me 5 more at BTC0.25 each.
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Good we paid $130 per chip... and? You want to say what? We are lying? I think there are about 11 people in the COOP can verify what we paid per chip.
I feel truly sorry for you for making such a stupid move. Those immediately available samples are for development purposes. I don't think putting up 130$ a chip is stupid when we bought the chip and the timeline we projected to have something mining. We like most people in this game probably miscalculated that aspect but oh well there is always cheaper chips and another opportunity with the same working product... not too stupid I think. Psst this is a development run sorta right? Also remember we had the money set aside for a 11,000 K1 Nano USB miner run and pulled the plug on it so we were keen as COOP to have something hashing. You know what I am pretty proud of the guys that pulled this off actually Kev, Turt, Ti, Andre, and some other helpers worldwide to get it hashing at 2.5+. We went from thought to shipping units in what 6 weeks? Pretty impressive work from the COOP there. I don't think ANYTHING you did was stupid. I also agree with your position that if someone wants them great, otherwise we mine with them. Once the chip price comes down, you are positioned to instantly leverage that - I say well done. |
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In the one thread, I mentioned that using bfl.ptz.ro you could see that a minimum of 938 Jalapenos listed from Jun 23 to the end of Jan along with where the other lines were. I felt we could triple the total and get a good lowball figure for their shipping to date. That would be ~3000 Jalapenos which was kind of scoffed at as too high. I then commented that I felt the true number of Jalas was closer to 7000(my gut said 10k, but I went with 7k) than the less than 3000 the others believed. I straight up asked Josh if I was right about it being closer to 7000 and his response was yes, much much closer. I would have to take that as meaning they shipped somewhere between 5k and 7k Jala's, which is the closest I got to actual numbers.
I did the math on the bfl.ptz.ro For Jalapenos from Day 1 to the last ship date 2/14/13 there are 1063 orders. So you are saying that the number is about triple that? Something tells me the factor for Singles is not Triple, but something less than Triple. On bfl.ptz.ro the amount of singles from yesterdays shipments (nov 16 - 19) is 7 (seven) Mini-Rigs (August 5-15) is 12 (twelve) Mini-Rigs (July 18-20) is 3 (three) Now in BFLs defense, Mini-Rigs take forever to assemble (I would guess) so if they shipped 15 to 20 yesterday that is probably full time job for 3 people. However the numbers don't add up on Singles. If the factor was Triple, X4 or X5 - They shipped almost none yesterday. That's all well and good, what baffles my mind is that Josh said YESTERDAY that they would clear to April 2013 in 20 days. Is he so disconnected or is there some magic wand he has that no one knows about. |
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Wednesdays update looks like every other day recently Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 12-14, 2013 no Jallys shipped todayLittle Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 6, 2012 no LS shipped todaySingles 60 and 50 gh/s: Aug 19, 2012 pay date 3 days of progressMiniRigs: June 23 orders (3rd 500gh/s unit), July 20 orders 2nd 500 gh/s August 15 for 1st 500 g/s units 2 days & 10 days respectively. Good day for Mini-Rigs 75 198 days of Jalapenos to ship [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 175 299 Days of Little Singles [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 254 257 404 days of Singles [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] 311 430 days of Mini-rig orders. [Updated for Joshs 9/11/13 New Date of April 30th 2013] Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-30+23:59:59UTC |
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All very helpful and it underlines a lot of the facts and figures I have been discussing all along.
I always thought tripling the bfl.ptz.ro was a good estimate.
Considering the sheer volume they are outputting, I don't think that doubling assemblers would be enough but we shall see.
Help me understand the supply chain and the assembly.
A frisbee size wafer is produced by the foundry.
It gets cut up into squares
Whats the next steps and where do the steps happen?
Do the 4gh Engines get attached to the board at the same time as the rest of the electronic components?
Is there anything happening in the BFL building other than assembly (i.e. soldering, chip mounting to PCBs etc) or is that handled elsewhere?
It's 11:30 BFL time and no shipping update for today, so we shall see what Jody has to say tomorrow, just had to ship 16 days worth today!
Somewhere I heard 55 employees, that seems high.
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So contrary to "tl;dr" I did read your posts.
Still have questions like:
What's your opinion of daily volume?
How many assemblers?
You said you saw stuff going out the door? Any more specifics??
Did you see anything that was contrary to what "the haters" have to say?
You mentioned something about 7000 Jalas, does that mean that they have sent 7000 since they started?
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