I'm interested in developing a list of questions/variables that are associated with Ponzis.

Here is my short list.  Please add items to this list and I'll edit the post.

Ponzi Indicators
1. High rate of return
Explanation: ponzi schemes typically offer very high rates of return that are not possible.  Anything that is > 50%/year APR is suspicious.  Anything > 500% APR is very suspicious.  Ponzis can offer lower rates as well (see Maddoff - 10% APR), but these are less common.

2.  Provides no evidence of business activity
They refuse to show what they are investing their capital, what products(s) or services they are selling, and who the customers are.  By contrast a mining corporation will be able to provide pictures of hardware and statistics of how many BTC generated per month.

3. Business activity is "speculation"
Speculation doesn't make steady rates of return. In fact the return rate should often be negative.

4. Steady rates of return
When combined with a high rate of return that is greater than the market rate of return this is suspicious.

5. Increasing demand for capital
Unlike a regular business which has its largest demand for capital at the start, the ponzi starts off with a very small amount of capital ("refuses" deposits), and then grows rapidly.  An increasing demand for capital makes sense only if the business can show what the money is being used for.  A ponzi will need to have its capital grow at a standard rate that exceeds the withdrawals, whereas a legitimate business will have a varying rate of investment (and this rate will often hit zero).

6. Operator hides their identity
If the name and identity of the person who runs this project is publicly known, and they live in a jurisdiction where it would be easy to prosecute them then they are less likely to run away with the money.  Though there are exceptions to this (perhaps too many for this to be a good indicator?).

7. A Super Majority of Non-Investors view it as a Ponzi
If a business is only defended as legitimate by those who are invested in it, while the overwhelming majority of individuals who have no money to gain from taking a position see it as a ponzi -- it is likely that the non-investors are more trustworthy in their assessment.

8. They advertise a "Limited Availability"
They have a low demand for funds.  Especially in the early phase.  Ideally they've got people chomping at the bit to be included in the scheme.

9. They have "Pass-Throughs".
Tentatively this seems like a good indicator. I don't think pass-throughs are typically used in regular project funding.  It increases the distance between the investor and the fund-owner and acts as a shield/distraction.  It is more indicative of money laundering.


First-Hand Ponzi Accounts
Chasing Maddoff - movie
The Man Who Would Be Polka King - movie account of a polka performer / ponzi that stole $5-$10 million.

EVE Ponzi First Hand Account
http://web.archive.org/web/20091026234156/http://geocities.com/currintrading/
http://web.archive.org/web/20091021193732/http://geocities.com/currintrading/bank.html

Books  
(I haven't read them but the Amazon reviews look good)
http://www.amazon.com/Robbing-You-Keyboard-Instead-Gun/dp/1453895299/
http://www.amazon.com/The-Vigilant-Investor-Fraud-Proof-Investments/dp/0814417507



Vladmir's Resources
Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91643.0

There are many resources dedicated to helping people to recognize and avoid scams:
http://www.sec.gov/answers/ponzi.htm
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/consumerinformation/scamsandswindles
http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.nsf/eng/02597.html
http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.nsf/vwapj/Little-Black-Book-Scams-e.pdf
http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/whatwedo/specialinterests/at-risk-magazine/pages/ponzischemes%E2%80%93howtorecognizethem.aspx
http://www.fbi.gov/scams-safety/fraud/


There is some action that can be taken by people to protect themselves and others:
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/consumerinformation/if_things_go_wrong
http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.nsf/eng/02801.html

I don't trust anyone with my coins. The coins that Coinbase holds are theirs until you withdraw them.
If they go away or they go bankrupt, you could lose your coins.
Also, there are too many examples of sites getting hacked and losing all their customers' coins for me to trust my coins to a third party.

Can you show those emails, what sort of links and messages they contain so others can have better understanding of this.

Unauthorized sign in... Please verify.

Ghash.io sent you 0.19 BTC . Claim your reward

Please verify your wallet. There was some problems, so please changr your password.

.11 isn't cheap to be honest for just a Full member. I've seen them go for .1 here and there due to the fact you can buy newbies accounts registered in 2011 or 2012 and just post to get the activity up

Hey its still Sunday, give me chance...just doing it now

Wow, 1.03 BTC? How long did that take you to earn? If the answer is anything less than a year you should've known it's a fraud.