Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[blumangroup]

SD, stay at 1.98%, so my 1.56% doesn't look bad. hehe.

We've considered raising the primedice edge for a long time, 1% is extremely risky and often unsustainable without a solid bankroll or low max bet. It would be interesting to figure out the elasticity of the house edge on dice in terms of how much volume/profit a site would lose or gain by shifting the edge. When primedice had a 0.9% edge I don't think it made any difference on volume, however the way we integrated it via jackpot made it still seem like a 1% game with an easily forgettable added incentive.

In my opinion it makes more sense to set a 1.9-2% edge rather than a 1.5% one. People who care about the edge would probably stick to 1% so you'd entirely lose that audience while profiting more off of the audience you did obtain which clearly don't care about the odds as much. That's my opinion at least, if more dice sites shut down/run off with funds we'd probably consider raising edge but no plans to right now. When PD was about to launch we had decided on a 1.5-1.6% edge if I recall correctly, satoshidice had plans to release a new off-chain site around then (may '13) and coinroll had kept a 1% edge due to that reason and we ended up matching it to stay competitive. I wonder what sort of edge bitcoin casinos would have if things didn't progress that way though, if primedice was sitting at a 1.5-2% edge would just-dice and all investment sites have followed suit?

PD has been around for a long time, and for the most part have proven to be honest (very few "hiccups" - when hiccups do occur members are fairly compensated, no scammy policies, however "you never know") so I think that some people would gamble on PD with a higher edge verses another site with a lower edge that has not "proven" itself

[Dabs]

Actually, SD is doing 1.9%. (I forget where I got the 1.98%, maybe it was the actual math or something.) (And I found it, back then losing bets got 0.005x or something.)

Do losing bets still get something back? There would be no reason for the off-chain version to give back on lost bets, because the players can already see that they lost. I believe the whole point of returning 0.005x was so that players knew they lost, because it was on-chain.

The only other dice sites that exist right now, which are worthy of mentioning are Prime, and PRC. The last two big ones were Dicebitcoin and Dice Ninja, both of which are effectively gone. While others exist, there does not seem to be enough volume on them. Coinroll has changed owners, and I don't see much action there, so it's pretty much dead.

So, if Prime increases to 1.9%, PRC might follow, just because Dean seems to be that kind of person, but I don't really know. There is that dicesites.com which lists a whole bunch of them and we can probably ignore the non-bitcoin versions.

The other sites will either increase to just below 1.9% or stay at 1% hoping to get more players.

Whales, will still play on the top 3 sites (SD, Prime, PRC).