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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177050 times)
dooglus
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May 12, 2013, 06:26:43 PM
 #1321

For the first time in ages I completely forgot about this thread yesterday.

Another lesson in Martingale betting:

Quote
Sun May 12 00:34:05 2013 <32768 235739 2e6cbb69d177de9c:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET    16.00000000 LOSE   -15.92000000
Sun May 12 00:44:19 2013 <32768 235740 98678f215fc7b595:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET    32.00000000 WIN     30.62400000

Sun May 12 05:51:18 2013 <32768 235788 faea9532e81bd1de:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET    16.00000000 LOSE   -15.92000000
Sun May 12 06:11:08 2013 <32768 235789 1369bccecf32df6c:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET    32.00000000 LOSE   -31.84000000
Sun May 12 06:28:03 2013 <32768 235791 8bb4e27abdd860ce:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET    64.00000000 LOSE   -63.68000000
Sun May 12 06:29:53 2013 <32768 235792 6ee7f01b42e94e52:0  1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm BET   130.00000000 LOSE  -129.35000000

Quote
Total of 25 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-12 11:23am (up to block 235867)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   143516 |       3 (0.00002) |  141097 |    2416 |    1821.91 |    3843.59 |   172.26 |  -2021.67 | 210.964
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13161 |       0 (0.00000) |   12580 |     581 |     180.17 |       0.49 |    27.45 |    179.68 |   0.272
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14893 |       2 (0.00014) |   14377 |     514 |     212.13 |     320.39 |    17.60 |   -108.25 | 151.031
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25622 |       5 (0.00020) |   25073 |     544 |     613.87 |     433.92 |    14.64 |    179.94 |  70.686
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24798 |       5 (0.00021) |   24302 |     491 |     885.02 |     606.65 |    22.21 |    278.36 |  68.547
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30852 |      13 (0.00043) |   30386 |     453 |    1676.94 |    1831.00 |     1.59 |   -154.05 | 109.187
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31332 |      35 (0.00114) |   30751 |     546 |    2207.51 |    1740.50 |   117.10 |    467.00 |  78.845
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22594 |      42 (0.00190) |   22035 |     517 |    2443.77 |    1583.22 |    48.57 |    860.54 |  64.786
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27595 |     116 (0.00427) |   27055 |     424 |    6093.74 |    8662.10 |    13.31 |  -2568.35 | 142.147
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40618 |     320 (0.00803) |   39508 |     790 |    8480.29 |    6960.31 |    10.34 |   1519.98 |  82.076
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   157169 |    2422 (0.01548) |  154081 |     666 |   43344.21 |   37640.49 |     2.61 |   5703.72 |  86.841
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27816 |     640 (0.02334) |   26778 |     398 |    8067.40 |    8714.70 |    15.23 |   -647.30 | 108.024
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   100890 |    3082 (0.03068) |   97365 |     443 |   43770.59 |   39043.08 |     9.54 |   4727.51 |  89.199
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32646 |    1492 (0.04643) |   30645 |     509 |    9975.53 |   10790.90 |    25.46 |   -815.37 | 108.174
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40123 |    2467 (0.06214) |   37233 |     423 |    8034.99 |    7955.80 |    31.47 |     79.19 |  99.014
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    58659 |    5315 (0.09147) |   52792 |     552 |   17306.82 |   18917.26 |     7.66 |  -1610.43 | 109.305
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   226772 |   27803 (0.12295) |  198330 |     639 |  102006.51 |  101339.94 |   101.09 |    666.56 |  99.347
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   127144 |   23191 (0.18335) |  103291 |     662 |  180361.33 |  181816.24 |  3315.36 |  -1454.90 | 100.807
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   305737 |   74392 (0.24392) |  230588 |     757 |  381187.13 |  367233.20 |  2323.16 |  13953.93 |  96.339
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   296376 |  108660 (0.36751) |  187009 |     707 |  596843.73 |  588103.65 |  1013.75 |   8740.07 |  98.536
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1270022 |  618945 (0.48812) |  649064 |    2013 |  926611.38 |  908323.14 |  2926.40 |  18288.24 |  98.026
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   754552 |  376256 (0.49982) |  376534 |    1762 |  710967.12 |  693086.05 |  6523.73 |  17881.06 |  97.485
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   423040 |  310207 (0.73494) |  111880 |     953 |  314203.77 |  306781.90 |  6173.10 |   7421.87 |  97.638
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    96448 |   76004 (0.79384) |   19738 |     706 |   66949.61 |   65307.37 |  1188.17 |   1642.24 |  97.547
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    91396 |   77667 (0.85718) |   12941 |     788 |   84457.00 |   83668.80 |   401.31 |    788.20 |  99.067
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   142932 |  130034 (0.91574) |   11965 |     933 |   78774.82 |   77575.12 |     2.18 |   1199.70 |  98.477
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23417 |   21144 (0.97844) |     466 |    1807 |   25238.44 |   24815.23 |   241.26 |    423.20 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4425941 | 1804241           | 2600000 |   21700 |  866968.51 |  851882.57 |   340.47 |  15085.94 |  98.260
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124179 |   56021           |   67864 |     294 | 2755747.36 | 2695212.59 | 24406.21 |  60534.77 |  97.803
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4550120 | 1860262           | 2667864 |   21994 | 3622715.87 | 3547095.16 | 24746.68 |  75620.71 |  97.913
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75620.71535161 BTC (2.087%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3789.38077500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71831.33457661 BTC (1.983%)
Pending Liabilities:           -5.00419699 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71836.33877360 BTC (1.983%)
Profit This Month:            232.93042898 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14799694  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8349695  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6493.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3445.0  (53.1%)




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dooglus
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May 13, 2013, 11:33:05 PM
 #1322

Recent big wins:

Quote
Mon May 13 11:07:49 2013 <32768 235990 7ace5ea90b985dea:0  19wBbCFpP8kfWzyCSf6LdfFWSeH98F7f4Y BET   166.71775687 WIN    159.54889332
Mon May 13 20:27:18 2013 <6000  236055 82af2640eeee679f:1  1FPP1CvHfurEMyxhHBRinnbHknGkRMwzGo BET    12.99000000 WIN    125.55513944
Mon May 13 20:42:52 2013 <3000  236058 fc9e59ec38604e2a:0  1HxRLat83hjH8cnDnHHpg2QgspXaHbZWiy BET    19.00000000 WIN    386.19486133

Quote
Total of 31 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-13 04:30pm (up to block 236072)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144030 |       3 (0.00002) |  141577 |    2450 |    1827.59 |    3843.62 |   172.56 |  -2016.03 | 210.311
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13197 |       0 (0.00000) |   12615 |     582 |     180.95 |       0.49 |    27.75 |    180.46 |   0.273
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14945 |       2 (0.00014) |   14422 |     521 |     212.90 |     320.39 |    17.62 |   -107.49 | 150.489
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25716 |       5 (0.00020) |   25165 |     546 |     615.48 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    181.54 |  70.503
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24895 |       5 (0.00020) |   24399 |     491 |     886.32 |     606.66 |    22.21 |    279.66 |  68.447
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30888 |      13 (0.00043) |   30421 |     454 |    1677.91 |    1831.01 |     1.59 |   -153.09 | 109.124
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31374 |      35 (0.00114) |   30788 |     551 |    2208.21 |    1740.50 |   117.12 |    467.70 |  78.820
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22658 |      42 (0.00190) |   22098 |     518 |    2444.89 |    1583.22 |    48.57 |    861.66 |  64.756
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27660 |     116 (0.00426) |   27120 |     424 |    6109.04 |    8662.18 |    13.31 |  -2553.13 | 141.793
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40722 |     320 (0.00801) |   39608 |     794 |    8510.24 |    6960.46 |    10.36 |   1549.77 |  81.789
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   157700 |    2429 (0.01547) |  154600 |     671 |   43516.86 |   37646.47 |     2.62 |   5870.38 |  86.510
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27859 |     640 (0.02331) |   26820 |     399 |    8122.92 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -592.05 | 107.289
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101198 |    3086 (0.03063) |   97666 |     446 |   43825.23 |   39044.95 |     9.55 |   4780.27 |  89.092
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32752 |    1497 (0.04643) |   30745 |     510 |   10192.24 |   11203.90 |    25.47 |  -1011.66 | 109.926
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40191 |    2471 (0.06214) |   37296 |     424 |    8036.68 |    7956.44 |    31.47 |     80.23 |  99.002
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    59198 |    5358 (0.09136) |   53286 |     554 |   17456.49 |   19084.90 |     7.67 |  -1628.40 | 109.328
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   228152 |   27975 (0.12296) |  199535 |     642 |  102223.88 |  101645.45 |   101.10 |    578.42 |  99.434
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   127843 |   23316 (0.18333) |  103862 |     665 |  180636.54 |  182387.26 |  3315.37 |  -1750.72 | 100.969
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   308180 |   75004 (0.24398) |  232413 |     763 |  381612.32 |  367831.67 |  2323.18 |  13780.65 |  96.389
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   297021 |  108898 (0.36751) |  187414 |     709 |  597072.47 |  588403.84 |  1013.76 |   8668.63 |  98.548
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1275718 |  621748 (0.48814) |  651950 |    2020 |  928047.57 |  909848.37 |  2926.43 |  18199.19 |  98.039
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   759953 |  378898 (0.49976) |  379268 |    1787 |  713086.18 |  695334.19 |  6523.81 |  17751.98 |  97.511
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   425170 |  311756 (0.73492) |  112450 |     964 |  314501.18 |  307060.62 |  6173.14 |   7440.56 |  97.634
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97158 |   76575 (0.79396) |   19872 |     711 |   67087.95 |   65446.60 |  1188.19 |   1641.35 |  97.553
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    91877 |   78071 (0.85708) |   13018 |     788 |   84606.68 |   83824.83 |   401.31 |    781.84 |  99.076
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   143507 |  130551 (0.91573) |   12014 |     942 |   78870.43 |   77668.11 |     2.24 |   1202.32 |  98.476
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23651 |   21363 (0.97852) |     469 |    1819 |   25403.61 |   24979.94 |   241.27 |    423.67 |  98.332
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4448761 | 1814054           | 2612856 |   21851 |  870169.79 |  855068.18 |   341.47 |  15101.61 |  98.265
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124452 |   56123           |   68035 |     294 | 2758803.10 | 2698996.94 | 24406.21 |  59806.16 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4573213 | 1870177           | 2680891 |   22145 | 3628972.89 | 3554065.12 | 24747.69 |  74907.77 |  97.936
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74907.77463654 BTC (2.064%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3813.59557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71094.17906154 BTC (1.959%)
Pending Liabilities:           -2.47462220 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71096.65368374 BTC (1.959%)
Profit This Month:           -506.75466088 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14874119  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8393947  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6527.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3463.1  (53.1%)




nebulus
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May 13, 2013, 11:35:10 PM
 #1323

This is kind of backwards... In gambling house makes the money...

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May 14, 2013, 02:15:55 AM
 #1324

This is kind of backwards... In gambling house makes the money...

I made money ... by selling all my SDICE shares.
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May 14, 2013, 02:25:40 AM
 #1325

Oooomph, devastating day for S.DICE!

I'm not overly concerned, over time S.DICE will win.  Simple as that.
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May 14, 2013, 02:44:32 AM
 #1326

This is kind of backwards... In gambling house makes the money...

71,000 BTC isn't money?  Smiley

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May 14, 2013, 04:02:06 AM
 #1327

You've got a point :\

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May 14, 2013, 06:28:37 AM
 #1328

This is kind of backwards... In gambling house makes the money...

I made money ... by selling all my SDICE shares.

+1, when it was in high 0.006's.
Only thing that amazes me about this happening is how people are still wasting time with this utterly boring game of "click the send button... duh!".

71K+IPO-few pennies for dividends= set for life Smiley

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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May 15, 2013, 01:02:43 PM
 #1329

There is no f*cking way I am losing this much with the posted odds.

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May 15, 2013, 02:10:03 PM
 #1330

There is no f*cking way I am losing this much with the posted odds.

That's the beauty of chance, now isn't it. Wink

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May 15, 2013, 02:51:49 PM
 #1331

Quote
Total of 31 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-13 04:30pm (up to block 236072)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144030 |       3 (0.00002) |  141577 |    2450 |    1827.59 |    3843.62 |   172.56 |  -2016.03 | 210.311
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13197 |       0 (0.00000) |   12615 |     582 |     180.95 |       0.49 |    27.75 |    180.46 |   0.273
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14945 |       2 (0.00014) |   14422 |     521 |     212.90 |     320.39 |    17.62 |   -107.49 | 150.489
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25716 |       5 (0.00020) |   25165 |     546 |     615.48 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    181.54 |  70.503
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24895 |       5 (0.00020) |   24399 |     491 |     886.32 |     606.66 |    22.21 |    279.66 |  68.447
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30888 |      13 (0.00043) |   30421 |     454 |    1677.91 |    1831.01 |     1.59 |   -153.09 | 109.124
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31374 |      35 (0.00114) |   30788 |     551 |    2208.21 |    1740.50 |   117.12 |    467.70 |  78.820
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22658 |      42 (0.00190) |   22098 |     518 |    2444.89 |    1583.22 |    48.57 |    861.66 |  64.756
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27660 |     116 (0.00426) |   27120 |     424 |    6109.04 |    8662.18 |    13.31 |  -2553.13 | 141.793
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40722 |     320 (0.00801) |   39608 |     794 |    8510.24 |    6960.46 |    10.36 |   1549.77 |  81.789
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   157700 |    2429 (0.01547) |  154600 |     671 |   43516.86 |   37646.47 |     2.62 |   5870.38 |  86.510
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27859 |     640 (0.02331) |   26820 |     399 |    8122.92 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -592.05 | 107.289
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101198 |    3086 (0.03063) |   97666 |     446 |   43825.23 |   39044.95 |     9.55 |   4780.27 |  89.092
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32752 |    1497 (0.04643) |   30745 |     510 |   10192.24 |   11203.90 |    25.47 |  -1011.66 | 109.926
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40191 |    2471 (0.06214) |   37296 |     424 |    8036.68 |    7956.44 |    31.47 |     80.23 |  99.002
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    59198 |    5358 (0.09136) |   53286 |     554 |   17456.49 |   19084.90 |     7.67 |  -1628.40 | 109.328
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   228152 |   27975 (0.12296) |  199535 |     642 |  102223.88 |  101645.45 |   101.10 |    578.42 |  99.434
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   127843 |   23316 (0.18333) |  103862 |     665 |  180636.54 |  182387.26 |  3315.37 |  -1750.72 | 100.969
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   308180 |   75004 (0.24398) |  232413 |     763 |  381612.32 |  367831.67 |  2323.18 |  13780.65 |  96.389
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   297021 |  108898 (0.36751) |  187414 |     709 |  597072.47 |  588403.84 |  1013.76 |   8668.63 |  98.548
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1275718 |  621748 (0.48814) |  651950 |    2020 |  928047.57 |  909848.37 |  2926.43 |  18199.19 |  98.039
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   759953 |  378898 (0.49976) |  379268 |    1787 |  713086.18 |  695334.19 |  6523.81 |  17751.98 |  97.511
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   425170 |  311756 (0.73492) |  112450 |     964 |  314501.18 |  307060.62 |  6173.14 |   7440.56 |  97.634
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97158 |   76575 (0.79396) |   19872 |     711 |   67087.95 |   65446.60 |  1188.19 |   1641.35 |  97.553
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    91877 |   78071 (0.85708) |   13018 |     788 |   84606.68 |   83824.83 |   401.31 |    781.84 |  99.076
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   143507 |  130551 (0.91573) |   12014 |     942 |   78870.43 |   77668.11 |     2.24 |   1202.32 |  98.476
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23651 |   21363 (0.97852) |     469 |    1819 |   25403.61 |   24979.94 |   241.27 |    423.67 |  98.332
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4448761 | 1814054           | 2612856 |   21851 |  870169.79 |  855068.18 |   341.47 |  15101.61 |  98.265
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124452 |   56123           |   68035 |     294 | 2758803.10 | 2698996.94 | 24406.21 |  59806.16 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4573213 | 1870177           | 2680891 |   22145 | 3628972.89 | 3554065.12 | 24747.69 |  74907.77 |  97.936
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74907.77463654 BTC (2.064%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3813.59557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71094.17906154 BTC (1.959%)
Pending Liabilities:           -2.47462220 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71096.65368374 BTC (1.959%)
Profit This Month:           -506.75466088 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14874119  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8393947  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6527.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3463.1  (53.1%)


Can some one explain a few things for me?

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?
Korbman
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May 15, 2013, 03:13:16 PM
 #1332

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

If I remember correctly, that statement is correct. It's just the amount of bets placed on SD since its inception.

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?

I wouldn't say continuously..given that 3 people have won and 141,577 have lost...

It's the address with the highest risk and highest reward. If you manage to win, you get quite a substantial amount of coin.

drawingthesun
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May 15, 2013, 04:14:06 PM
 #1333

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

If I remember correctly, that statement is correct. It's just the amount of bets placed on SD since its inception.

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?

I wouldn't say continuously..given that 3 people have won and 141,577 have lost...

It's the address with the highest risk and highest reward. If you manage to win, you get quite a substantial amount of coin.

Thanks, I wasn't reading the table properly, I thought it was the order on the homepage, where the highest chance win / small return addresses were on top.

Now it makes much more sense.

1:47,000 to win on 1dice1e6p, yeah I can see that not being a effective strategy to win... You would have to play 100 times a day for over a year to get a chance at winning with a minimum spend of 470 Bitcoins...
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May 15, 2013, 06:05:55 PM
 #1334

Thanks, I wasn't reading the table properly, I thought it was the order on the homepage, where the highest chance win / small return addresses were on top.

I should switch the table around so that it's in the same order as on the homepage.

1:47,000 to win on 1dice1e6p, yeah I can see that not being a effective strategy to win... You would have to play 100 times a day for over a year to get a chance at winning with a minimum spend of 470 Bitcoins...

It's actually a 1 in 65536 chance of winning.  The fact that 'only' 48000 times more bets have lost than have won is why that particular bet is currently losing money for the house.  The house edge is about the same on that bet as for all the others, but that's the bet that's hardest to win, and so it has the highest variance.

You only have to play once to get a chance of winning.  Every play has the same chance of winning.

I generated the report yesterday, but got distracted before posting it (it's been a while since I received any donations to keep me focussed Wink).  Here it is:

Quote
Total of 23 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-14 03:58pm (up to block 236223)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144339 |       3 (0.00002) |  141851 |    2485 |    1830.88 |    3843.64 |   173.58 |  -2012.75 | 209.933
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13204 |       0 (0.00000) |   12622 |     582 |     181.21 |       0.49 |    27.75 |    180.71 |   0.274
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14960 |       2 (0.00014) |   14433 |     525 |     213.49 |     320.40 |    17.63 |   -106.90 | 150.075
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25742 |       5 (0.00020) |   25189 |     548 |     615.86 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    181.92 |  70.460
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24922 |       5 (0.00020) |   24426 |     491 |     887.81 |     606.67 |    22.21 |    281.14 |  68.333
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30899 |      13 (0.00043) |   30432 |     454 |    1678.42 |    1831.01 |     1.59 |   -152.58 | 109.091
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31389 |      35 (0.00114) |   30801 |     553 |    2208.48 |    1740.50 |   117.12 |    467.97 |  78.810
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22726 |      42 (0.00189) |   22165 |     519 |    2447.26 |    1583.24 |    48.58 |    864.02 |  64.694
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27714 |     116 (0.00425) |   27174 |     424 |    6110.44 |    8662.18 |    13.31 |  -2551.74 | 141.760
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40909 |     322 (0.00803) |   39791 |     796 |    8514.60 |    6962.98 |    10.36 |   1551.61 |  81.777
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   158254 |    2438 (0.01547) |  155141 |     675 |   43541.34 |   37654.94 |     2.63 |   5886.39 |  86.481
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27872 |     640 (0.02330) |   26833 |     399 |    8123.07 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -591.90 | 107.287
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101426 |    3088 (0.03058) |   97890 |     448 |   43873.05 |   39045.83 |     9.55 |   4827.21 |  88.997
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32825 |    1500 (0.04642) |   30815 |     510 |   10208.56 |   11226.58 |    25.47 |  -1018.02 | 109.972
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40211 |    2472 (0.06213) |   37315 |     424 |    8037.29 |    7956.61 |    31.47 |     80.68 |  98.996
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    59809 |    5415 (0.09139) |   53839 |     555 |   17496.73 |   19138.81 |     7.68 |  -1642.07 | 109.385
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   229403 |   28112 (0.12289) |  200649 |     642 |  102329.84 |  101687.84 |   101.10 |    641.99 |  99.373
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   128685 |   23494 (0.18352) |  104525 |     666 |  180759.90 |  182684.28 |  3315.37 |  -1924.37 | 101.065
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   309678 |   75371 (0.24399) |  233539 |     768 |  381788.35 |  368031.22 |  2323.21 |  13757.12 |  96.397
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   299687 |  109886 (0.36754) |  189090 |     711 |  597405.07 |  588776.21 |  1013.77 |   8628.85 |  98.556
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1279974 |  623782 (0.48811) |  654170 |    2022 |  928896.13 |  910651.12 |  2926.44 |  18245.00 |  98.036
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   763451 |  380607 (0.49971) |  381044 |    1800 |  714390.09 |  696602.96 |  6523.86 |  17787.13 |  97.510
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   426537 |  312761 (0.73493) |  112804 |     972 |  314750.24 |  307285.16 |  6173.18 |   7465.07 |  97.628
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97645 |   76965 (0.79401) |   19967 |     713 |   67132.05 |   65490.83 |  1188.19 |   1641.22 |  97.555
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    92364 |   78482 (0.85704) |   13091 |     791 |   84744.20 |   83967.95 |   401.32 |    776.25 |  99.084
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   144026 |  131020 (0.91573) |   12057 |     949 |   79043.00 |   77840.25 |     2.27 |   1202.74 |  98.478
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23729 |   21435 (0.97859) |     469 |    1825 |   25497.31 |   25074.04 |   241.28 |    423.26 |  98.340
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4467801 | 1821818           | 2624030 |   21953 |  872553.69 |  857357.95 |   342.73 |  15195.74 |  98.258
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124579 |   56193           |   68092 |     294 | 2760151.10 | 2700456.83 | 24406.21 |  59694.26 |  97.837
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4592380 | 1878011           | 2692122 |   22247 | 3632704.80 | 3557814.78 | 24748.94 |  74890.01 |  97.938
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74890.01491976 BTC (2.062%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3833.68217500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71056.33274476 BTC (1.956%)
Pending Liabilities:           -3.30326670 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71059.63601146 BTC (1.956%)
Profit This Month:           -543.77233316 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14938762  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8430897  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6555.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3477.8  (53.0%)




dooglus
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May 15, 2013, 06:47:26 PM
 #1335

Here's today's.  What a difference a day makes!

Quote
Total of 24 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-15 11:18am (up to block 236340)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23799 |   21494 (0.97856) |     471 |    1834 |   25513.81 |   25087.75 |   241.29 |    426.05 |  98.330
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   144745 |  131685 (0.91579) |   12109 |     951 |   79260.71 |   78053.72 |     2.28 |   1206.98 |  98.477
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    92790 |   78849 (0.85707) |   13149 |     792 |   84991.23 |   84218.97 |   401.32 |    772.26 |  99.091
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97985 |   77218 (0.79388) |   20048 |     719 |   67183.66 |   65545.07 |  1188.21 |   1638.59 |  97.561
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   427683 |  313574 (0.73488) |  113127 |     982 |  315003.56 |  307535.28 |  6173.22 |   7468.27 |  97.629
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   765988 |  381858 (0.49970) |  382319 |    1811 |  715553.31 |  697748.62 |  6523.90 |  17804.69 |  97.512
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1283380 |  625436 (0.48811) |  655916 |    2028 |  930063.94 |  911862.29 |  2926.47 |  18201.64 |  98.043
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   303691 |  111333 (0.36746) |  191646 |     712 |  598278.96 |  589614.25 |  1013.77 |   8664.70 |  98.552
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   310741 |   75630 (0.24399) |  234340 |     771 |  382443.11 |  368447.26 |  2323.22 |  13995.84 |  96.340
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   128982 |   23558 (0.18359) |  104758 |     666 |  181273.65 |  182931.53 |  3315.37 |  -1657.88 | 100.915
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   229715 |   28155 (0.12291) |  200917 |     643 |  102772.32 |  102185.32 |   101.11 |    587.00 |  99.429
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    60068 |    5435 (0.09133) |   54077 |     556 |   17515.45 |   19154.68 |     7.68 |  -1639.23 | 109.359
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40261 |    2475 (0.06213) |   37362 |     424 |    8038.36 |    7957.41 |    31.47 |     80.95 |  98.993
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32851 |    1501 (0.04641) |   30840 |     510 |   10210.09 |   11229.79 |    25.47 |  -1019.70 | 109.987
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101563 |    3091 (0.03057) |   98020 |     452 |   44121.98 |   39367.53 |     9.58 |   4754.44 |  89.224
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27878 |     640 (0.02329) |   26839 |     399 |    8123.14 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -591.83 | 107.286
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   158524 |    2442 (0.01547) |  155406 |     676 |   43656.79 |   37658.72 |     2.64 |   5998.06 |  86.261
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41032 |     323 (0.00803) |   39912 |     797 |    8515.94 |    6964.24 |    10.36 |   1551.70 |  81.779
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27720 |     116 (0.00425) |   27180 |     424 |    6110.59 |    8662.19 |    13.31 |  -2551.59 | 141.757
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22752 |      42 (0.00189) |   22191 |     519 |    2448.20 |    1583.24 |    48.58 |    864.96 |  64.670
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31410 |      35 (0.00113) |   30822 |     553 |    2209.06 |    1740.51 |   117.12 |    468.55 |  78.789
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30910 |      13 (0.00043) |   30441 |     456 |    1678.67 |    1831.01 |     1.60 |   -152.34 | 109.075
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24963 |       5 (0.00020) |   24467 |     491 |     888.39 |     606.67 |    22.21 |    281.71 |  68.289
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25757 |       5 (0.00020) |   25204 |     548 |     616.03 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    182.09 |  70.440
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14981 |       2 (0.00014) |   14450 |     529 |     214.11 |     320.40 |    18.45 |   -106.29 | 149.643
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13221 |       0 (0.00000) |   12637 |     584 |     181.43 |       0.49 |    28.56 |    180.93 |   0.274
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144706 |       3 (0.00002) |  142203 |    2500 |    1836.13 |    3843.67 |   173.83 |  -2007.53 | 209.335
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4483309 | 1828664           | 2632612 |   22033 |  874932.88 |  859656.54 |   344.83 |  15276.34 |  98.254
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124787 |   56254           |   68239 |     294 | 2763769.86 | 2703643.11 | 24406.21 |  60126.74 |  97.824
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4608096 | 1884918           | 2700851 |   22327 | 3638702.74 | 3563299.65 | 24751.04 |  75403.08 |  97.928
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75403.08712140 BTC (2.072%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3850.15437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71552.93274640 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.89962192 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71552.03312448 BTC (1.966%)
Profit This Month:            -51.37522014 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14991344  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8461043  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6579.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3490.0  (53.0%)




dooglus
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May 15, 2013, 06:50:15 PM
 #1336

Could it be our old friend back again?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1BDDDQ8VhXPF11m2rDoVJXj1BgWPazEttz

Edit: notice the similarity between the balance of that address over time and the recent satoshidice profits (upside down):


EskimoBob
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Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank


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May 15, 2013, 07:22:23 PM
 #1337


I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
ThickAsThieves
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May 15, 2013, 07:28:47 PM
 #1338


I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

Erik recently said he will never release more tranches of shares. Not sure how or why he can promise that, but he did.
RationalSpeculator
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Activity: 294

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 15, 2013, 10:58:04 PM
 #1339


I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

Erik recently said he will never release more tranches of shares. Not sure how or why he can promise that, but he did.

He's the only one that can promise it as he is the only one speaking for the majority shareholder, who is the only one with the power to print more shares.

Shareholder dilution is the best way to take away value from shareholders. Similar to printing money.

The majority shareholders promising to not print more shares is a critical element whether to invest in that company/shares or not. 
RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Activity: 294

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 15, 2013, 11:00:01 PM
 #1340

Could it be our old friend back again?


That looks like a whale! Smiley Thanks for reporting Smiley
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