Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[nullbitspectre1848]

There is no f*cking way I am losing this much with the posted odds.

[Korbman]

There is no f*cking way I am losing this much with the posted odds.

That's the beauty of chance, now isn't it.

[drawingthesun]

Total of 31 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-13 04:30pm (up to block 236072)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144030 |       3 (0.00002) |  141577 |    2450 |    1827.59 |    3843.62 |   172.56 |  -2016.03 | 210.311
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13197 |       0 (0.00000) |   12615 |     582 |     180.95 |       0.49 |    27.75 |    180.46 |   0.273
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14945 |       2 (0.00014) |   14422 |     521 |     212.90 |     320.39 |    17.62 |   -107.49 | 150.489
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25716 |       5 (0.00020) |   25165 |     546 |     615.48 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    181.54 |  70.503
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24895 |       5 (0.00020) |   24399 |     491 |     886.32 |     606.66 |    22.21 |    279.66 |  68.447
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30888 |      13 (0.00043) |   30421 |     454 |    1677.91 |    1831.01 |     1.59 |   -153.09 | 109.124
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31374 |      35 (0.00114) |   30788 |     551 |    2208.21 |    1740.50 |   117.12 |    467.70 |  78.820
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22658 |      42 (0.00190) |   22098 |     518 |    2444.89 |    1583.22 |    48.57 |    861.66 |  64.756
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27660 |     116 (0.00426) |   27120 |     424 |    6109.04 |    8662.18 |    13.31 |  -2553.13 | 141.793
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40722 |     320 (0.00801) |   39608 |     794 |    8510.24 |    6960.46 |    10.36 |   1549.77 |  81.789
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   157700 |    2429 (0.01547) |  154600 |     671 |   43516.86 |   37646.47 |     2.62 |   5870.38 |  86.510
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27859 |     640 (0.02331) |   26820 |     399 |    8122.92 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -592.05 | 107.289
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101198 |    3086 (0.03063) |   97666 |     446 |   43825.23 |   39044.95 |     9.55 |   4780.27 |  89.092
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32752 |    1497 (0.04643) |   30745 |     510 |   10192.24 |   11203.90 |    25.47 |  -1011.66 | 109.926
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40191 |    2471 (0.06214) |   37296 |     424 |    8036.68 |    7956.44 |    31.47 |     80.23 |  99.002
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    59198 |    5358 (0.09136) |   53286 |     554 |   17456.49 |   19084.90 |     7.67 |  -1628.40 | 109.328
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   228152 |   27975 (0.12296) |  199535 |     642 |  102223.88 |  101645.45 |   101.10 |    578.42 |  99.434
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   127843 |   23316 (0.18333) |  103862 |     665 |  180636.54 |  182387.26 |  3315.37 |  -1750.72 | 100.969
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   308180 |   75004 (0.24398) |  232413 |     763 |  381612.32 |  367831.67 |  2323.18 |  13780.65 |  96.389
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   297021 |  108898 (0.36751) |  187414 |     709 |  597072.47 |  588403.84 |  1013.76 |   8668.63 |  98.548
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1275718 |  621748 (0.48814) |  651950 |    2020 |  928047.57 |  909848.37 |  2926.43 |  18199.19 |  98.039
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   759953 |  378898 (0.49976) |  379268 |    1787 |  713086.18 |  695334.19 |  6523.81 |  17751.98 |  97.511
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   425170 |  311756 (0.73492) |  112450 |     964 |  314501.18 |  307060.62 |  6173.14 |   7440.56 |  97.634
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97158 |   76575 (0.79396) |   19872 |     711 |   67087.95 |   65446.60 |  1188.19 |   1641.35 |  97.553
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    91877 |   78071 (0.85708) |   13018 |     788 |   84606.68 |   83824.83 |   401.31 |    781.84 |  99.076
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   143507 |  130551 (0.91573) |   12014 |     942 |   78870.43 |   77668.11 |     2.24 |   1202.32 |  98.476
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23651 |   21363 (0.97852) |     469 |    1819 |   25403.61 |   24979.94 |   241.27 |    423.67 |  98.332
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4448761 | 1814054           | 2612856 |   21851 |  870169.79 |  855068.18 |   341.47 |  15101.61 |  98.265
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124452 |   56123           |   68035 |     294 | 2758803.10 | 2698996.94 | 24406.21 |  59806.16 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4573213 | 1870177           | 2680891 |   22145 | 3628972.89 | 3554065.12 | 24747.69 |  74907.77 |  97.936
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74907.77463654 BTC (2.064%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3813.59557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71094.17906154 BTC (1.959%)
Pending Liabilities:           -2.47462220 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71096.65368374 BTC (1.959%)
Profit This Month:           -506.75466088 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14874119  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8393947  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6527.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3463.1  (53.1%)

Can some one explain a few things for me?

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?

[Korbman]

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

If I remember correctly, that statement is correct. It's just the amount of bets placed on SD since its inception.

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?

I wouldn't say continuously..given that 3 people have won and 141,577 have lost...

It's the address with the highest risk and highest reward. If you manage to win, you get quite a substantial amount of coin.

[drawingthesun]

Does the "Bet counter" on the S.Dice homepage mean how many bets made regardless of value? This is not the amount of Bitcoins bet is it?

If I remember correctly, that statement is correct. It's just the amount of bets placed on SD since its inception.

Also, from this table 1dice1e6p is continusly losing money. Does this mean someone should play this address for constant profits? What is the mathematics around why this address is losing so much Bitcoin?

I wouldn't say continuously..given that 3 people have won and 141,577 have lost...

It's the address with the highest risk and highest reward. If you manage to win, you get quite a substantial amount of coin.

Thanks, I wasn't reading the table properly, I thought it was the order on the homepage, where the highest chance win / small return addresses were on top.

Now it makes much more sense.

1:47,000 to win on 1dice1e6p, yeah I can see that not being a effective strategy to win... You would have to play 100 times a day for over a year to get a chance at winning with a minimum spend of 470 Bitcoins...

[dooglus]

Thanks, I wasn't reading the table properly, I thought it was the order on the homepage, where the highest chance win / small return addresses were on top.

I should switch the table around so that it's in the same order as on the homepage.

1:47,000 to win on 1dice1e6p, yeah I can see that not being a effective strategy to win... You would have to play 100 times a day for over a year to get a chance at winning with a minimum spend of 470 Bitcoins...

It's actually a 1 in 65536 chance of winning.  The fact that 'only' 48000 times more bets have lost than have won is why that particular bet is currently losing money for the house.  The house edge is about the same on that bet as for all the others, but that's the bet that's hardest to win, and so it has the highest variance.

You only have to play once to get a chance of winning.  Every play has the same chance of winning.

I generated the report yesterday, but got distracted before posting it (it's been a while since I received any donations to keep me focussed ).  Here it is:

Total of 23 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-14 03:58pm (up to block 236223)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144339 |       3 (0.00002) |  141851 |    2485 |    1830.88 |    3843.64 |   173.58 |  -2012.75 | 209.933
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13204 |       0 (0.00000) |   12622 |     582 |     181.21 |       0.49 |    27.75 |    180.71 |   0.274
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14960 |       2 (0.00014) |   14433 |     525 |     213.49 |     320.40 |    17.63 |   -106.90 | 150.075
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25742 |       5 (0.00020) |   25189 |     548 |     615.86 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    181.92 |  70.460
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24922 |       5 (0.00020) |   24426 |     491 |     887.81 |     606.67 |    22.21 |    281.14 |  68.333
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30899 |      13 (0.00043) |   30432 |     454 |    1678.42 |    1831.01 |     1.59 |   -152.58 | 109.091
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31389 |      35 (0.00114) |   30801 |     553 |    2208.48 |    1740.50 |   117.12 |    467.97 |  78.810
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22726 |      42 (0.00189) |   22165 |     519 |    2447.26 |    1583.24 |    48.58 |    864.02 |  64.694
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27714 |     116 (0.00425) |   27174 |     424 |    6110.44 |    8662.18 |    13.31 |  -2551.74 | 141.760
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    40909 |     322 (0.00803) |   39791 |     796 |    8514.60 |    6962.98 |    10.36 |   1551.61 |  81.777
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   158254 |    2438 (0.01547) |  155141 |     675 |   43541.34 |   37654.94 |     2.63 |   5886.39 |  86.481
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27872 |     640 (0.02330) |   26833 |     399 |    8123.07 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -591.90 | 107.287
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101426 |    3088 (0.03058) |   97890 |     448 |   43873.05 |   39045.83 |     9.55 |   4827.21 |  88.997
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32825 |    1500 (0.04642) |   30815 |     510 |   10208.56 |   11226.58 |    25.47 |  -1018.02 | 109.972
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40211 |    2472 (0.06213) |   37315 |     424 |    8037.29 |    7956.61 |    31.47 |     80.68 |  98.996
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    59809 |    5415 (0.09139) |   53839 |     555 |   17496.73 |   19138.81 |     7.68 |  -1642.07 | 109.385
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   229403 |   28112 (0.12289) |  200649 |     642 |  102329.84 |  101687.84 |   101.10 |    641.99 |  99.373
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   128685 |   23494 (0.18352) |  104525 |     666 |  180759.90 |  182684.28 |  3315.37 |  -1924.37 | 101.065
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   309678 |   75371 (0.24399) |  233539 |     768 |  381788.35 |  368031.22 |  2323.21 |  13757.12 |  96.397
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   299687 |  109886 (0.36754) |  189090 |     711 |  597405.07 |  588776.21 |  1013.77 |   8628.85 |  98.556
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1279974 |  623782 (0.48811) |  654170 |    2022 |  928896.13 |  910651.12 |  2926.44 |  18245.00 |  98.036
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   763451 |  380607 (0.49971) |  381044 |    1800 |  714390.09 |  696602.96 |  6523.86 |  17787.13 |  97.510
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   426537 |  312761 (0.73493) |  112804 |     972 |  314750.24 |  307285.16 |  6173.18 |   7465.07 |  97.628
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97645 |   76965 (0.79401) |   19967 |     713 |   67132.05 |   65490.83 |  1188.19 |   1641.22 |  97.555
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    92364 |   78482 (0.85704) |   13091 |     791 |   84744.20 |   83967.95 |   401.32 |    776.25 |  99.084
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   144026 |  131020 (0.91573) |   12057 |     949 |   79043.00 |   77840.25 |     2.27 |   1202.74 |  98.478
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23729 |   21435 (0.97859) |     469 |    1825 |   25497.31 |   25074.04 |   241.28 |    423.26 |  98.340
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4467801 | 1821818           | 2624030 |   21953 |  872553.69 |  857357.95 |   342.73 |  15195.74 |  98.258
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124579 |   56193           |   68092 |     294 | 2760151.10 | 2700456.83 | 24406.21 |  59694.26 |  97.837
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4592380 | 1878011           | 2692122 |   22247 | 3632704.80 | 3557814.78 | 24748.94 |  74890.01 |  97.938
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74890.01491976 BTC (2.062%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3833.68217500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71056.33274476 BTC (1.956%)
Pending Liabilities:           -3.30326670 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71059.63601146 BTC (1.956%)
Profit This Month:           -543.77233316 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14938762  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8430897  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6555.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3477.8  (53.0%)

[dooglus]

Here's today's.  What a difference a day makes!

Total of 24 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-15 11:18am (up to block 236340)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23799 |   21494 (0.97856) |     471 |    1834 |   25513.81 |   25087.75 |   241.29 |    426.05 |  98.330
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   144745 |  131685 (0.91579) |   12109 |     951 |   79260.71 |   78053.72 |     2.28 |   1206.98 |  98.477
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    92790 |   78849 (0.85707) |   13149 |     792 |   84991.23 |   84218.97 |   401.32 |    772.26 |  99.091
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    97985 |   77218 (0.79388) |   20048 |     719 |   67183.66 |   65545.07 |  1188.21 |   1638.59 |  97.561
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   427683 |  313574 (0.73488) |  113127 |     982 |  315003.56 |  307535.28 |  6173.22 |   7468.27 |  97.629
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   765988 |  381858 (0.49970) |  382319 |    1811 |  715553.31 |  697748.62 |  6523.90 |  17804.69 |  97.512
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1283380 |  625436 (0.48811) |  655916 |    2028 |  930063.94 |  911862.29 |  2926.47 |  18201.64 |  98.043
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   303691 |  111333 (0.36746) |  191646 |     712 |  598278.96 |  589614.25 |  1013.77 |   8664.70 |  98.552
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   310741 |   75630 (0.24399) |  234340 |     771 |  382443.11 |  368447.26 |  2323.22 |  13995.84 |  96.340
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   128982 |   23558 (0.18359) |  104758 |     666 |  181273.65 |  182931.53 |  3315.37 |  -1657.88 | 100.915
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   229715 |   28155 (0.12291) |  200917 |     643 |  102772.32 |  102185.32 |   101.11 |    587.00 |  99.429
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    60068 |    5435 (0.09133) |   54077 |     556 |   17515.45 |   19154.68 |     7.68 |  -1639.23 | 109.359
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40261 |    2475 (0.06213) |   37362 |     424 |    8038.36 |    7957.41 |    31.47 |     80.95 |  98.993
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32851 |    1501 (0.04641) |   30840 |     510 |   10210.09 |   11229.79 |    25.47 |  -1019.70 | 109.987
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   101563 |    3091 (0.03057) |   98020 |     452 |   44121.98 |   39367.53 |     9.58 |   4754.44 |  89.224
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27878 |     640 (0.02329) |   26839 |     399 |    8123.14 |    8714.98 |    15.23 |   -591.83 | 107.286
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   158524 |    2442 (0.01547) |  155406 |     676 |   43656.79 |   37658.72 |     2.64 |   5998.06 |  86.261
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41032 |     323 (0.00803) |   39912 |     797 |    8515.94 |    6964.24 |    10.36 |   1551.70 |  81.779
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27720 |     116 (0.00425) |   27180 |     424 |    6110.59 |    8662.19 |    13.31 |  -2551.59 | 141.757
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22752 |      42 (0.00189) |   22191 |     519 |    2448.20 |    1583.24 |    48.58 |    864.96 |  64.670
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31410 |      35 (0.00113) |   30822 |     553 |    2209.06 |    1740.51 |   117.12 |    468.55 |  78.789
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30910 |      13 (0.00043) |   30441 |     456 |    1678.67 |    1831.01 |     1.60 |   -152.34 | 109.075
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24963 |       5 (0.00020) |   24467 |     491 |     888.39 |     606.67 |    22.21 |    281.71 |  68.289
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25757 |       5 (0.00020) |   25204 |     548 |     616.03 |     433.93 |    14.64 |    182.09 |  70.440
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14981 |       2 (0.00014) |   14450 |     529 |     214.11 |     320.40 |    18.45 |   -106.29 | 149.643
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13221 |       0 (0.00000) |   12637 |     584 |     181.43 |       0.49 |    28.56 |    180.93 |   0.274
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   144706 |       3 (0.00002) |  142203 |    2500 |    1836.13 |    3843.67 |   173.83 |  -2007.53 | 209.335
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4483309 | 1828664           | 2632612 |   22033 |  874932.88 |  859656.54 |   344.83 |  15276.34 |  98.254
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   124787 |   56254           |   68239 |     294 | 2763769.86 | 2703643.11 | 24406.21 |  60126.74 |  97.824
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4608096 | 1884918           | 2700851 |   22327 | 3638702.74 | 3563299.65 | 24751.04 |  75403.08 |  97.928
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75403.08712140 BTC (2.072%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3850.15437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71552.93274640 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.89962192 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71552.03312448 BTC (1.966%)
Profit This Month:            -51.37522014 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14991344  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8461043  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6579.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3490.0  (53.0%)

[dooglus]

Could it be our old friend back again?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1BDDDQ8VhXPF11m2rDoVJXj1BgWPazEttz

Edit: notice the similarity between the balance of that address over time and the recent satoshidice profits (upside down):

[EskimoBob]

Could it be our old friend back again?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1BDDDQ8VhXPF11m2rDoVJXj1BgWPazEttz

I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

[ThickAsThieves]

Could it be our old friend back again?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1BDDDQ8VhXPF11m2rDoVJXj1BgWPazEttz

I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

Erik recently said he will never release more tranches of shares. Not sure how or why he can promise that, but he did.

[RationalSpeculator]

Could it be our old friend back again?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1BDDDQ8VhXPF11m2rDoVJXj1BgWPazEttz

I guess we can expect the next shares dumping by "unknown" investor... soon.
Do not worry, it will be dressed up as big favor to all the current share holders and shills will cal it "lowering the average cost of investment" or similar bs.

Erik recently said he will never release more tranches of shares. Not sure how or why he can promise that, but he did.

He's the only one that can promise it as he is the only one speaking for the majority shareholder, who is the only one with the power to print more shares.

Shareholder dilution is the best way to take away value from shareholders. Similar to printing money.

The majority shareholders promising to not print more shares is a critical element whether to invest in that company/shares or not. 

[RationalSpeculator]

Could it be our old friend back again?

That looks like a whale! Thanks for reporting

[RationalSpeculator]

Could it be that actual profit is considerably higher than expected profit because gamblers on average stop more when they have been exceptionally unlucky? (Whereas the house always continues to play also when exceptionally unlucky)

[dooglus]

He's the only one that can promise it as he is the only one speaking for the majority shareholder, who is the only one with the power to print more shares.

Shareholder dilution is the best way to take away value from shareholders. Similar to printing money.

This isn't about dilution.  There are 100 million shares, of which 13 million are currently available.  When this went up from 10 million to 13 million there was no dilution.  Each share still gets one 100 millionth of the monthly profits as a dividend.

Could it be that actual profit is considerably higher than expected profit because gamblers on average stop more when they have been exceptionally unlucky?

I don't know, and it hurts my head to think about.

Everything I know about probability tells me that there's no way of changing the expected profit by changing your betting strategy.  "Quitting while you're behind" is a betting strategy, and so shouldn't affect the house edge.

If it did then we could beat the house by all "quitting while we're ahead", right?

As far as the bottom line is concerned, there's no difference between one big player and another.  It doesn't matter if each individual player stops when they are down a lot; it's just a stream of bets, each of which is paid out 1.9% less than the 'fair' amount.  That has to lead to a 1.9% profit overall I think in the long run.

[organofcorti]

He's the only one that can promise it as he is the only one speaking for the majority shareholder, who is the only one with the power to print more shares.

Shareholder dilution is the best way to take away value from shareholders. Similar to printing money.

This isn't about dilution.  There are 100 million shares, of which 13 million are currently available.  When this went up from 10 million to 13 million there was no dilution.  Each share still gets one 100 millionth of the monthly profits as a dividend.

Could it be that actual profit is considerably higher than expected profit because gamblers on average stop more when they have been exceptionally unlucky?

I don't know, and it hurts my head to think about.

Me too.

Everything I know about probability tells me that there's no way of changing the expected profit by changing your betting strategy.  "Quitting while you're behind" is a betting strategy, and so shouldn't affect the house edge.

If it did then we could beat the house by all "quitting while we're ahead", right?

Since this is all a bit fuzzy and I haven't the foggiest idea how to even approach analysing it, I'm probably wrong, but here goes:

The difference is that  "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.

"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.

[dooglus]

The difference is that  "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.

"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.

The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses.  On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough.  In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times.


For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie.  Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever.

We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC.

And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC.

I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year.  Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did.  The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are.

[Bugpowder]

The difference is that  "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.

"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.

The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses.  On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough.  In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times.


For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie.  Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever.

We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC.

And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC.

I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year.  Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did.  The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are.

Relevant analogy :

If there is a country where every husband and wife decides to have children until they have a boy, what is the distribution of boys vs. girls in the country?

[dooglus]

Total of 72 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-17 01:26am (up to block 236579)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23892 |   21575 (0.97859) |     472 |    1845 |   25519.74 |   25093.60 |   241.32 |    426.13 |  98.330
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   146224 |  133037 (0.91584) |   12226 |     961 |   79528.53 |   78326.53 |     2.35 |   1202.00 |  98.489
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    93421 |   79393 (0.85714) |   13232 |     796 |   85265.91 |   84503.41 |   401.34 |    762.49 |  99.106
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    98423 |   77561 (0.79385) |   20141 |     721 |   67289.19 |   65623.23 |  1188.22 |   1665.96 |  97.524
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   429305 |  314740 (0.73483) |  113574 |     991 |  315344.18 |  307876.47 |  6173.26 |   7467.71 |  97.632
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   771150 |  384434 (0.49970) |  384888 |    1828 |  718138.06 |  700382.60 |  6523.96 |  17755.45 |  97.528
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1291140 |  629198 (0.48809) |  659902 |    2040 |  932138.91 |  913684.89 |  2926.52 |  18454.02 |  98.020
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   305339 |  111900 (0.36734) |  192722 |     717 |  598625.00 |  589916.21 |  1013.80 |   8708.78 |  98.545
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   312367 |   76036 (0.24403) |  235553 |     778 |  382593.45 |  368618.95 |  2323.25 |  13974.50 |  96.347
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   130321 |   23800 (0.18357) |  105849 |     672 |  181455.31 |  183283.92 |  3315.40 |  -1828.61 | 101.008
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   230828 |   28293 (0.12292) |  201890 |     645 |  102924.34 |  102290.22 |   101.12 |    634.11 |  99.384
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    61364 |    5559 (0.09142) |   55248 |     557 |   17545.65 |   19190.80 |     7.68 |  -1645.15 | 109.376
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40351 |    2480 (0.06211) |   37447 |     424 |    8040.38 |    7961.74 |    31.47 |     78.64 |  99.022
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    32894 |    1503 (0.04641) |   30881 |     510 |   10211.00 |   11231.07 |    25.47 |  -1020.07 | 109.990
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   102276 |    3110 (0.03054) |   98712 |     454 |   44173.55 |   39737.82 |     9.58 |   4435.72 |  89.958
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    27903 |     641 (0.02331) |   26861 |     401 |    8123.51 |    8715.41 |    15.23 |   -591.89 | 107.286
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   159591 |    2453 (0.01544) |  156458 |     680 |   43689.05 |   37669.12 |     2.65 |   6019.93 |  86.221
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41299 |     323 (0.00797) |   40179 |     797 |    8518.85 |    6964.25 |    10.36 |   1554.60 |  81.751
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27822 |     117 (0.00427) |   27280 |     425 |    6113.17 |    8664.70 |    13.31 |  -2551.53 | 141.738
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22816 |      42 (0.00188) |   22255 |     519 |    2449.17 |    1583.25 |    48.58 |    865.92 |  64.644
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31451 |      35 (0.00113) |   30861 |     555 |    2210.00 |    1740.51 |   117.13 |    469.48 |  78.756
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30954 |      13 (0.00043) |   30484 |     457 |    1680.88 |    1831.02 |     1.60 |   -150.14 | 108.932
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25000 |       5 (0.00020) |   24504 |     491 |     889.21 |     606.68 |    22.21 |    282.53 |  68.226
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25803 |       5 (0.00020) |   25244 |     554 |     617.39 |     433.94 |    14.66 |    183.45 |  70.286
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15021 |       2 (0.00014) |   14485 |     534 |     215.33 |     320.40 |    18.46 |   -105.07 | 148.796
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13248 |       0 (0.00000) |   12663 |     585 |     181.83 |       0.49 |    28.56 |    181.33 |   0.275
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   145368 |       3 (0.00002) |  142844 |    2521 |    1846.60 |    3843.72 |   174.69 |  -1997.12 | 208.151
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4510561 | 1839886           | 2648511 |   22164 |  878419.17 |  862991.28 |   346.09 |  15427.89 |  98.244
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   125010 |   56372           |   68344 |     294 | 2766909.13 | 2707103.80 | 24406.21 |  59805.33 |  97.839
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4635571 | 1896258           | 2716855 |   22458 | 3645328.31 | 3570095.08 | 24752.31 |  75233.22 |  97.936
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75233.22431411 BTC (2.064%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3878.96977500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71354.25453911 BTC (1.957%)
Pending Liabilities:          -15.76743849 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71370.02197760 BTC (1.958%)
Profit This Month:           -233.38636702 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15087441  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8512696  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6624.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3511.4  (53.0%)

[MPOE-PR]

Relevant analogy :

If there is a country where every husband and wife decides to have children until they have a boy, what is the distribution of boys vs. girls in the country?

Same as in the neighboring country, I would guess? (Many boys just after a war, many girls just before one).

[Zaih]

The difference is that  "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.

"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.

The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses.  On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough.  In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times.


For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie.  Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever.

We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC.

And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC.

I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year.  Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did.  The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are.

Relevant analogy :

If there is a country where every husband and wife decides to have children until they have a boy, what is the distribution of boys vs. girls in the country?

Exactly the same still. Probability is a continuum regardless of how you go about it.