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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177175 times)
RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 02, 2013, 07:17:15 AM
 #1281

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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May 02, 2013, 10:06:46 AM
 #1282

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.



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May 02, 2013, 01:14:23 PM
 #1283

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751
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May 02, 2013, 02:26:35 PM
 #1284

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751

How do you mean?

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May 02, 2013, 04:39:37 PM
 #1285

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc?

If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?

Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up.

Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.


Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751

How do you mean?

Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious.
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May 02, 2013, 05:08:16 PM
 #1286

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
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May 02, 2013, 06:21:45 PM
 #1287

Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
The exact way the double spend protection system works is secret.
For bets above a certain amount and within certain variables 1 confirmation is needed, but for most transaction 0 confirmation should be fine.
//DeaDTerra
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May 02, 2013, 07:34:37 PM
 #1288

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Total of 33 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-02 12:33pm (up to block 234232)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   137272 |       3 (0.00002) |  135071 |    2198 |    1733.01 |    3843.14 |   161.57 |  -2110.13 | 221.761
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12607 |       0 (0.00000) |   12040 |     567 |     172.37 |       0.45 |    22.84 |    171.91 |   0.262
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14044 |       2 (0.00015) |   13545 |     497 |     195.12 |     320.30 |    17.49 |   -125.18 | 164.157
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25250 |       5 (0.00020) |   24718 |     527 |     603.36 |     433.87 |    13.37 |    169.49 |  71.909
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24463 |       5 (0.00021) |   23974 |     484 |     866.97 |     606.56 |    22.19 |    260.40 |  69.964
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30293 |      13 (0.00044) |   29838 |     442 |    1661.82 |    1830.93 |     1.53 |   -169.10 | 110.176
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30783 |      35 (0.00116) |   30227 |     521 |    2190.08 |    1740.41 |   116.99 |    449.66 |  79.468
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22134 |      41 (0.00190) |   21578 |     515 |    2418.40 |    1578.09 |    48.56 |    840.30 |  65.254
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27229 |     116 (0.00433) |   26694 |     419 |    6072.36 |    8661.99 |    13.29 |  -2589.63 | 142.646
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39634 |     311 (0.00801) |   38539 |     784 |    8455.39 |    6948.00 |    10.31 |   1507.38 |  82.173
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   148245 |    2287 (0.01549) |  145314 |     644 |   42999.28 |   37323.70 |     2.54 |   5675.58 |  86.801
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26736 |     609 (0.02312) |   25733 |     394 |    7998.64 |    8589.34 |    15.21 |   -590.69 | 107.385
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    95797 |    2940 (0.03083) |   92431 |     426 |   43532.35 |   38773.83 |     9.47 |   4758.51 |  89.069
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31756 |    1445 (0.04624) |   29806 |     505 |    9875.41 |   10670.13 |    25.45 |   -794.71 | 108.047
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39316 |    2404 (0.06180) |   36495 |     417 |    7880.47 |    7676.58 |    31.44 |    203.89 |  97.413
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56178 |    5092 (0.09152) |   50545 |     541 |   17146.72 |   18683.02 |     7.63 |  -1536.29 | 108.960
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   213802 |   26177 (0.12279) |  187008 |     617 |  101064.96 |  100371.63 |   100.94 |    693.33 |  99.314
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   123033 |   22446 (0.18341) |   99933 |     654 |  179881.52 |  181454.68 |  3315.33 |  -1573.16 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   296256 |   72090 (0.24395) |  223427 |     739 |  379868.41 |  366069.19 |  2323.08 |  13799.21 |  96.367
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   289578 |  106144 (0.36742) |  182748 |     686 |  595944.34 |  587173.27 |  1013.65 |   8771.07 |  98.528
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1231675 |  600196 (0.48807) |  629530 |    1949 |  918380.85 |  900219.55 |  2926.15 |  18161.30 |  98.022
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   704581 |  351180 (0.49959) |  351759 |    1642 |  699377.62 |  681500.47 |  6523.18 |  17877.14 |  97.444
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   409059 |  299986 (0.73499) |  108165 |     908 |  312074.88 |  304634.06 |  6172.90 |   7440.82 |  97.616
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    93666 |   73859 (0.79423) |   19135 |     672 |   66015.54 |   64476.70 |  1188.07 |   1538.84 |  97.669
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    87625 |   74478 (0.85740) |   12387 |     760 |   83658.82 |   82885.78 |   401.21 |    773.04 |  99.076
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   137292 |  124936 (0.91584) |   11481 |     875 |   77915.62 |   76764.90 |     1.91 |   1150.72 |  98.523
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22685 |   20504 (0.97866) |     447 |    1734 |   25107.19 |   24686.16 |   241.16 |    421.03 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4247773 | 1731777           | 2495173 |   20823 |  848919.12 |  834064.80 |   321.40 |  14854.31 |  98.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123216 |   55527           |   67395 |     294 | 2744172.50 | 2683852.04 | 24406.21 |  60320.45 |  97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4370989 | 1787304           | 2562568 |   21117 | 3593091.63 | 3517916.85 | 24727.61 |  75174.77 |  97.908
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75174.77270254 BTC (2.092%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3601.71957500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71573.05312754 BTC (1.992%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.04513489 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71573.00799265 BTC (1.992%)
Profit This Month:            -30.40035197 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14217696  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8009669  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6222.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3306.5  (53.1%)




dance4x
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May 02, 2013, 08:33:56 PM
 #1289

I am trying to figure out what the dividend should be for April, but I am running into different numbers in different places. The Google Docs spreadsheet says the profits for shareholders for April was 466.8455515763, but the MPEX website says total dividends of 1`795.55981337 will be paid. What factor am I missing here and where does that 1`795.55981337 number come from?
FTWbitcoinFTW
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May 02, 2013, 09:03:32 PM
 #1290

13% of total april profit = 466BTC to public shareholders
37% of total april profit = 1329BTC to john doe the mysterious

Total paid on MPEX by S.dice = 1795BTC

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
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May 03, 2013, 06:51:18 PM
 #1291

Quote
Total of 118 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-03 11:46am (up to block 234372)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   137903 |       3 (0.00002) |  135655 |    2245 |    1741.97 |    3843.19 |   164.62 |  -2101.21 | 220.623
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12629 |       0 (0.00000) |   12062 |     567 |     172.61 |       0.45 |    22.84 |    172.15 |   0.262
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14058 |       2 (0.00015) |   13559 |     497 |     195.42 |     320.30 |    17.49 |   -124.88 | 163.906
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25273 |       5 (0.00020) |   24740 |     528 |     603.80 |     433.87 |    14.62 |    169.93 |  71.856
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24481 |       5 (0.00021) |   23992 |     484 |     867.55 |     606.57 |    22.19 |    260.98 |  69.917
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30344 |      13 (0.00043) |   29887 |     444 |    1662.56 |    1830.93 |     1.55 |   -168.37 | 110.127
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30813 |      35 (0.00116) |   30255 |     523 |    2190.94 |    1740.41 |   116.99 |    450.52 |  79.437
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22179 |      41 (0.00189) |   21623 |     515 |    2419.99 |    1578.10 |    48.56 |    841.89 |  65.211
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27243 |     116 (0.00432) |   26708 |     419 |    6074.08 |    8662.00 |    13.29 |  -2587.92 | 142.606
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39728 |     312 (0.00801) |   38632 |     784 |    8456.54 |    6949.26 |    10.31 |   1507.28 |  82.176
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   149403 |    2301 (0.01547) |  146456 |     646 |   43049.98 |   37362.97 |     2.55 |   5687.01 |  86.790
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26761 |     611 (0.02317) |   25756 |     394 |    7999.08 |    8590.20 |    15.21 |   -591.11 | 107.390
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    96219 |    2957 (0.03087) |   92836 |     426 |   43555.01 |   38808.36 |     9.47 |   4746.64 |  89.102
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31806 |    1451 (0.04636) |   29850 |     505 |    9876.30 |   10672.80 |    25.45 |   -796.50 | 108.065
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39416 |    2413 (0.06187) |   36586 |     417 |    7938.14 |    7869.23 |    31.44 |     68.90 |  99.132
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56295 |    5101 (0.09149) |   50651 |     543 |   17151.03 |   18687.25 |     7.64 |  -1536.21 | 108.957
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   215879 |   26424 (0.12275) |  188835 |     620 |  101209.90 |  100503.38 |   100.97 |    706.52 |  99.302
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   123398 |   22521 (0.18348) |  100223 |     654 |  179907.72 |  181490.91 |  3315.33 |  -1583.18 | 100.880
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   297065 |   72301 (0.24399) |  224024 |     740 |  379924.22 |  366148.67 |  2323.08 |  13775.55 |  96.374
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   290158 |  106358 (0.36742) |  183113 |     687 |  596080.49 |  587323.11 |  1013.65 |   8757.38 |  98.531
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1235277 |  601931 (0.48806) |  631389 |    1957 |  918845.33 |  900710.87 |  2926.19 |  18134.46 |  98.026
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   706831 |  352304 (0.49959) |  352878 |    1649 |  700018.66 |  682213.98 |  6523.22 |  17804.68 |  97.457
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   410103 |  300728 (0.73493) |  108464 |     911 |  312185.80 |  304733.24 |  6172.92 |   7452.55 |  97.613
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    93933 |   74059 (0.79413) |   19199 |     675 |   66059.08 |   64524.95 |  1188.08 |   1534.13 |  97.678
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    87845 |   74655 (0.85729) |   12428 |     762 |   83698.03 |   82925.80 |   401.22 |    772.23 |  99.077
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   137743 |  125340 (0.91583) |   11519 |     884 |   77983.23 |   76831.73 |     1.96 |   1151.50 |  98.523
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22764 |   20571 (0.97855) |     451 |    1742 |   25116.01 |   24694.96 |   241.17 |    421.04 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4262264 | 1736992           | 2504348 |   20924 |  850330.97 |  835566.68 |   325.92 |  14764.29 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123283 |   55566           |   67423 |     294 | 2744652.64 | 2684490.92 | 24406.21 |  60161.71 |  97.808
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4385547 | 1792558           | 2571771 |   21218 | 3594983.62 | 3520057.61 | 24732.13 |  74926.01 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74926.01183211 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3617.00717500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71309.00465711 BTC (1.984%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.57068290 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71306.43397421 BTC (1.983%)
Profit This Month:           -296.97437041 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14271041  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8036621  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6247.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3317.6  (53.1%)




ThickAsThieves
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May 03, 2013, 06:55:03 PM
 #1292

Stop the madness!
Korbman
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May 03, 2013, 07:24:13 PM
 #1293

Stop the madness!

Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected.

scrybe
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May 05, 2013, 06:12:28 PM
 #1294

Stop the madness!

Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected.

I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception. IIRC once a random-walk "wanders off" the expected line it is likely to parallel the original curve IF luck remained 100% consistent. Of course it will not, so there will be both upward and downward random influences, but there is supposedly "no particular reason" for the real data to "seek out" the original curve and stick to it.

This was from a discussion on Martingale techniques where it was pointed out that the number of losses in a row were independent from each other and therefore much longer streaks than expected could happen (to the win or to the loss side of the ledger.)

Because of this discussion I don't really expect this to "correct" back to the line either, but again IANAS (...Statistician)

"...as simple as possible, but no simpler" -AE
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dooglus
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May 05, 2013, 08:22:17 PM
 #1295

I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception.

That's right.  The actual profit line doesn't feel any need to get closer to the expected profit line.

But, being 1000 BTC above the line when the expected profit is 10k means it's 10% higher than it 'should be', but later, when it's 1000 BTC above the expected profit of 100k it's only 1% higher than it should be.  So in that sense it tends to get closer to the expected value.  The 1000 BTC gap will remain, on average, but it will become less significant as profits increase.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

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May 06, 2013, 12:02:20 AM
 #1296

Quote
Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-05 02:55pm (up to block 234700)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   139424 |       3 (0.00002) |  137111 |    2310 |    1763.01 |    3843.29 |   168.33 |  -2080.28 | 217.996
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12682 |       0 (0.00000) |   12105 |     577 |     173.71 |       0.45 |    27.14 |    173.25 |   0.264
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14181 |       2 (0.00015) |   13682 |     497 |     201.36 |     320.33 |    17.49 |   -118.97 | 159.085
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25335 |       5 (0.00020) |   24797 |     533 |     609.79 |     433.90 |    14.62 |    175.89 |  71.156
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24583 |       5 (0.00021) |   24093 |     485 |     875.01 |     606.60 |    22.19 |    268.40 |  69.325
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30522 |      13 (0.00043) |   30063 |     446 |    1665.54 |    1830.95 |     1.56 |   -165.40 | 109.931
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30921 |      35 (0.00115) |   30363 |     523 |    2195.21 |    1740.44 |   116.99 |    454.77 |  79.283
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22294 |      41 (0.00188) |   21738 |     515 |    2422.13 |    1578.11 |    48.56 |    844.01 |  65.154
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27287 |     116 (0.00432) |   26750 |     421 |    6076.66 |    8662.02 |    13.30 |  -2585.35 | 142.546
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39847 |     313 (0.00801) |   38750 |     784 |    8461.37 |    6950.53 |    10.31 |   1510.84 |  82.144
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   152348 |    2349 (0.01548) |  149349 |     650 |   43163.07 |   37510.08 |     2.56 |   5652.99 |  86.903
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26864 |     617 (0.02331) |   25853 |     394 |    8006.79 |    8613.69 |    15.21 |   -606.89 | 107.580
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    97329 |    2991 (0.03087) |   93910 |     428 |   43606.57 |   38871.73 |     9.48 |   4734.84 |  89.142
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31895 |    1458 (0.04645) |   29932 |     505 |    9889.34 |   10685.23 |    25.45 |   -795.89 | 108.048
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39524 |    2424 (0.06198) |   36683 |     417 |    7954.91 |    7896.76 |    31.44 |     58.15 |  99.269
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56539 |    5120 (0.09144) |   50875 |     544 |   17168.84 |   18707.44 |     7.64 |  -1538.59 | 108.962
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   218637 |   26780 (0.12284) |  191234 |     623 |  101332.17 |  100600.98 |   101.00 |    731.18 |  99.278
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   124195 |   22667 (0.18348) |  100870 |     658 |  180103.57 |  181534.40 |  3315.34 |  -1430.82 | 100.794
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   299348 |   72868 (0.24403) |  225737 |     743 |  380130.10 |  366358.65 |  2323.09 |  13771.44 |  96.377
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   291861 |  107002 (0.36749) |  184167 |     692 |  596213.82 |  587472.13 |  1013.67 |   8741.69 |  98.534
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1242354 |  605377 (0.48806) |  634997 |    1980 |  920155.74 |  901998.28 |  2926.28 |  18157.46 |  98.027
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   713084 |  355477 (0.49968) |  355937 |    1670 |  702421.70 |  684987.68 |  6523.31 |  17434.01 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   412662 |  302574 (0.73487) |  109166 |     922 |  312819.31 |  305442.92 |  6172.95 |   7376.39 |  97.642
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94306 |   74345 (0.79411) |   19276 |     685 |   66116.77 |   64589.32 |  1188.12 |   1527.45 |  97.690
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    88453 |   75173 (0.85730) |   12513 |     767 |   83795.58 |   83027.30 |   401.23 |    768.27 |  99.083
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   139157 |  126613 (0.91579) |   11643 |     901 |   78156.37 |   76993.48 |     2.04 |   1162.89 |  98.512
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22875 |   20658 (0.97831) |     458 |    1759 |   25134.47 |   24712.16 |   241.20 |    422.31 |  98.320
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4295067 | 1749371           | 2524561 |   21135 |  853272.37 |  838460.58 |   334.44 |  14811.79 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123440 |   55655           |   67491 |     294 | 2747340.68 | 2687508.37 | 24406.21 |  59832.30 |  97.822
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4418507 | 1805026           | 2592052 |   21429 | 3600613.05 | 3525968.95 | 24740.65 |  74644.09 |  97.927
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74644.09877505 BTC (2.073%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3651.60777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70992.49100005 BTC (1.972%)
Pending Liabilities:          -12.39521804 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71004.88621809 BTC (1.972%)
Profit This Month:           -598.52212653 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14376431  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8097694  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6296.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3343.0  (53.1%)




ar9
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May 06, 2013, 12:04:13 AM
 #1297

Down 600 BTC this month!.... yeeeeeep!
dooglus
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May 07, 2013, 06:18:12 AM
 #1298

Quote
Total of 78 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-06 11:15pm (up to block 234926)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   140387 |       3 (0.00002) |  138032 |    2352 |    1774.89 |    3843.35 |   170.70 |  -2068.46 | 216.540
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12946 |       0 (0.00000) |   12367 |     579 |     176.87 |       0.47 |    27.44 |    176.40 |   0.268
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14315 |       2 (0.00014) |   13815 |     498 |     202.96 |     320.34 |    17.49 |   -117.37 | 157.831
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25389 |       5 (0.00020) |   24849 |     535 |     610.75 |     433.90 |    14.63 |    176.84 |  71.044
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24633 |       5 (0.00021) |   24143 |     485 |     876.24 |     606.61 |    22.19 |    269.63 |  69.229
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30585 |      13 (0.00043) |   30125 |     447 |    1666.86 |    1830.95 |     1.57 |   -164.09 | 109.845
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30996 |      35 (0.00115) |   30437 |     524 |    2196.74 |    1740.44 |   116.99 |    456.29 |  79.228
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22360 |      41 (0.00188) |   21804 |     515 |    2423.65 |    1578.12 |    48.56 |    845.52 |  65.114
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27332 |     116 (0.00431) |   26795 |     421 |    6078.45 |    8662.02 |    13.30 |  -2583.56 | 142.504
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39928 |     313 (0.00800) |   38830 |     785 |    8463.21 |    6950.54 |    10.31 |   1512.66 |  82.127
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   153213 |    2359 (0.01546) |  150199 |     655 |   43211.80 |   37541.67 |     2.58 |   5670.13 |  86.878
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26911 |     618 (0.02331) |   25898 |     395 |    8009.00 |    8619.67 |    15.21 |   -610.66 | 107.625
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    97759 |    3003 (0.03085) |   94325 |     431 |   43626.08 |   38878.22 |     9.50 |   4747.85 |  89.117
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31940 |    1460 (0.04645) |   29975 |     505 |    9892.14 |   10689.30 |    25.45 |   -797.15 | 108.058
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39604 |    2431 (0.06204) |   36755 |     418 |    7960.50 |    7901.26 |    31.44 |     59.24 |  99.256
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56629 |    5126 (0.09140) |   50957 |     546 |   17174.44 |   18708.21 |     7.65 |  -1533.77 | 108.931
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   220404 |   27018 (0.12293) |  192761 |     625 |  101428.38 |  100719.26 |   101.01 |    709.12 |  99.301
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   124794 |   22782 (0.18352) |  101354 |     658 |  180130.64 |  181564.37 |  3315.34 |  -1433.72 | 100.796
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   300913 |   73247 (0.24402) |  226923 |     743 |  380429.25 |  366626.93 |  2323.09 |  13802.32 |  96.372
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   292663 |  107288 (0.36747) |  184679 |     696 |  596290.96 |  587543.57 |  1013.69 |   8747.38 |  98.533
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1245673 |  606961 (0.48803) |  636725 |    1987 |  921005.03 |  902784.84 |  2926.29 |  18220.19 |  98.022
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   717655 |  357778 (0.49971) |  358192 |    1685 |  703959.03 |  686653.46 |  6523.38 |  17305.57 |  97.542
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   414167 |  303686 (0.73489) |  109554 |     927 |  313006.34 |  305635.55 |  6172.97 |   7370.79 |  97.645
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94565 |   74545 (0.79407) |   19332 |     688 |   66475.82 |   64843.45 |  1188.14 |   1632.36 |  97.544
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    88945 |   75588 (0.85728) |   12584 |     773 |   83859.42 |   83093.79 |   401.26 |    765.62 |  99.087
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   139909 |  127292 (0.91575) |   11711 |     906 |   78234.02 |   77067.72 |     2.05 |   1166.30 |  98.509
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22968 |   20744 (0.97840) |     458 |    1766 |   25144.14 |   24721.86 |   241.21 |    422.27 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4314018 | 1756753           | 2536014 |   21251 |  855010.77 |  840141.41 |   337.38 |  14869.36 |  98.261
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123565 |   55706           |   67565 |     294 | 2749296.98 | 2689418.61 | 24406.21 |  59878.37 |  97.822
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4437583 | 1812459           | 2603579 |   21545 | 3604307.76 | 3529560.02 | 24743.59 |  74747.73 |  97.926
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74747.73901096 BTC (2.074%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3671.62437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71076.11463596 BTC (1.972%)
Pending Liabilities:          -10.79555814 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71086.91019410 BTC (1.972%)
Profit This Month:           -516.49815052 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14448006  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8133691  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6331.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3357.8  (53.0%)




dooglus
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May 08, 2013, 01:53:54 AM
 #1299

Quote
Total of 47 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-07 06:33pm (up to block 235057)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   140898 |       3 (0.00002) |  138535 |    2360 |    1783.45 |    3843.39 |   170.74 |  -2059.93 | 215.502
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13065 |       0 (0.00000) |   12485 |     580 |     178.31 |       0.48 |    27.45 |    177.82 |   0.270
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    14680 |       2 (0.00014) |   14180 |     498 |     207.34 |     320.36 |    17.49 |   -113.02 | 154.508
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25428 |       5 (0.00020) |   24888 |     535 |     611.26 |     433.91 |    14.63 |    177.35 |  70.986
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24642 |       5 (0.00021) |   24151 |     486 |     876.50 |     606.61 |    22.20 |    269.88 |  69.208
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30609 |      13 (0.00043) |   30149 |     447 |    1667.43 |    1830.95 |     1.57 |   -163.52 | 109.807
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31030 |      35 (0.00115) |   30470 |     525 |    2197.34 |    1740.45 |   116.99 |    456.89 |  79.207
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22376 |      41 (0.00188) |   21820 |     515 |    2426.79 |    1578.14 |    48.56 |    848.65 |  65.030
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27345 |     116 (0.00431) |   26807 |     422 |    6078.70 |    8662.03 |    13.31 |  -2583.32 | 142.498
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39947 |     314 (0.00802) |   38848 |     785 |    8463.44 |    6951.79 |    10.31 |   1511.65 |  82.139
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   153888 |    2378 (0.01552) |  150854 |     656 |   43243.28 |   37573.49 |     2.58 |   5669.79 |  86.889
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26919 |     618 (0.02330) |   25906 |     395 |    8009.10 |    8619.67 |    15.21 |   -610.56 | 107.623
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    98114 |    3005 (0.03076) |   94677 |     432 |   43634.48 |   38878.90 |     9.51 |   4755.57 |  89.101
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31990 |    1462 (0.04644) |   30021 |     507 |    9898.08 |   10710.65 |    25.46 |   -812.56 | 108.209
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39662 |    2435 (0.06205) |   36809 |     418 |    7967.45 |    7909.69 |    31.44 |     57.75 |  99.275
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    56677 |    5133 (0.09145) |   50997 |     547 |   17179.11 |   18720.41 |     7.65 |  -1541.30 | 108.972
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   221791 |   27199 (0.12298) |  193967 |     625 |  101539.76 |  100803.85 |   101.01 |    735.90 |  99.275
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   125156 |   22837 (0.18343) |  101661 |     658 |  180159.36 |  181596.94 |  3315.34 |  -1437.58 | 100.798
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   301722 |   73431 (0.24398) |  227546 |     745 |  380655.78 |  366718.43 |  2323.10 |  13937.35 |  96.339
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   293406 |  107578 (0.36753) |  185127 |     701 |  596371.23 |  587607.23 |  1013.71 |   8763.99 |  98.530
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1248163 |  608192 (0.48805) |  637982 |    1989 |  922004.53 |  903538.27 |  2926.30 |  18466.26 |  97.997
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   720052 |  358959 (0.49970) |  359395 |    1698 |  704638.33 |  687334.04 |  6523.42 |  17304.29 |  97.544
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   415380 |  304571 (0.73488) |  109881 |     928 |  313137.78 |  305749.62 |  6172.98 |   7388.16 |  97.641
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    94692 |   74642 (0.79404) |   19361 |     689 |   66534.56 |   64909.97 |  1188.14 |   1624.59 |  97.558
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    89183 |   75785 (0.85721) |   12624 |     774 |   83889.41 |   83120.64 |   401.26 |    768.76 |  99.084
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   140337 |  127679 (0.91572) |   11751 |     907 |   78263.00 |   77096.64 |     2.05 |   1166.36 |  98.510
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    23028 |   20795 (0.97840) |     459 |    1774 |   25157.94 |   24735.60 |   241.22 |    422.34 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4326519 | 1761485           | 2543732 |   21302 |  856192.63 |  841213.68 |   337.58 |  14978.95 |  98.251
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123661 |   55748           |   67619 |     294 | 2750581.23 | 2690378.56 | 24406.21 |  60202.66 |  97.811
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4450180 | 1817233           | 2611351 |   21596 | 3606773.86 | 3531592.25 | 24743.79 |  75181.61 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75181.61839869 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3684.85097500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71496.76742369 BTC (1.982%)
Pending Liabilities:            9.40307656 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71487.36434713 BTC (1.982%)
Profit This Month:           -116.04399749 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14492750  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8156771  (56.3%)
Blockchain MB:   6353.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3367.4  (53.0%)




dooglus
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May 08, 2013, 01:55:47 AM
 #1300

Most of the recent profit seems to be the result of a failed martingale progression:

Quote
Tue May  7 15:26:00 2013 <32000 234999 c147128be6fdda3e:1  1Hx1WXVC2pxePX64vGtNSFxa8rSbusjR4K BET    22.00000000 LOSE   -21.89000000
Tue May  7 15:32:44 2013 <32000 235001 bda7674f62de0208:0  1KevcTrG9vCqskLvBQNBeStvPqSTDmXHp2 BET    44.00000000 LOSE   -43.78000000
Tue May  7 15:36:42 2013 <32000 235003 2dea536e1d5873ac:1  1CcQd35vZoTGZrNzv6PQZuQL3SbTjSvt82 BET    88.00000000 LOSE   -87.56000000
Tue May  7 16:00:20 2013 <32000 235004 90e65f73a3fe18c2:0  18xY7aPb9wbGhQQqBArJTwdhfCpvhUubzw BET   154.00000000 LOSE  -153.23000000

Edit: and who knows - maybe the recent slow decline in profits was the result of a sequence of successful martingale progressions, maybe even by the same player.

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