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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177212 times)
ar9
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May 22, 2013, 01:40:42 AM
 #1381

Er ma gerd...

Tough day!  Tongue
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May 22, 2013, 02:16:57 AM
 #1382

I rather see this than a straight stable boring line  Wink
RationalSpeculator
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May 22, 2013, 03:32:10 AM
 #1383

Thx for the update dooglus! Smiley

I was watching the realtime transactions on blockchain yesterday and saw some of these 300btc large amounts pass by. I thought it were bets placed, but from your post with large transactions it looks like they were all winnings, is that correct? (or have there also been 300btc bets placed?)

Is there a way to know when you are watching blockchain transactions whether it's a bet placed or a winning?
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May 22, 2013, 03:49:36 AM
 #1384

Is there a way to know when you are watching blockchain transactions whether it's a bet placed or a winning?

I don't think there have been any bets near 300 BTC recently.  And I don't think you can tell bets from winnings on the blockchain.info front page unless you click on the transaction.  If the 1dice is on the right (an output), it's a bet, else it's a payout.

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May 22, 2013, 05:04:06 AM
 #1385

Is there a way to know when you are watching blockchain transactions whether it's a bet placed or a winning?

I don't think there have been any bets near 300 BTC recently.  And I don't think you can tell bets from winnings on the blockchain.info front page unless you click on the transaction.  If the 1dice is on the right (an output), it's a bet, else it's a payout.

You are right! Thanks! Smiley
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May 22, 2013, 09:17:55 PM
 #1386

Ugh.

Quote
Wed May 22 04:36:02 2013 <2000  237297 76394733d34f166a:2  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    12.00000000 WIN    371.83881600
Wed May 22 05:02:43 2013 <8000  237299 f6aa34fc4bfe2c49:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 05:22:25 2013 <2000  237301 d87a1d4276904100:2  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    11.00000000 WIN    340.85224800
Wed May 22 05:24:44 2013 <8000  237302 cf6834c0c1edb844:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 05:24:44 2013 <2000  237302 cf6834c0c1edb844:2  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    11.00000000 WIN    340.85224800
Wed May 22 07:30:01 2013 <8000  237317 50566f12e9fe4d7c:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 07:30:01 2013 <2000  237317 0e819dca89595bc1:2  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    11.00000000 WIN    340.85224800
Wed May 22 09:07:43 2013 <1000  237331 9100361f21a81b5e:3  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    12.00000000 WIN    755.61763200
Wed May 22 09:07:43 2013 <8000  237331 d282f8dc8c52ca39:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 09:48:13 2013 <8000  237334 7facb8acbcc658a8:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 10:35:29 2013 <8000  237340 c95c2cae573cbee0:0  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    21.00000000 WIN    147.00823200
Wed May 22 10:42:15 2013 <8000  237342 2ca0f0cf15012b8c:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Wed May 22 11:58:39 2013 <8000  237354 edfcf1ea3ca35757:1  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Wed May 22 13:24:12 2013 <32768 237364 1b097888a8d1ff76:0  12jBUhb9aZQET6icY9VeZ62tkVYLaXtaHj BET   100.02353318 LOSE   -99.52341552
Wed May 22 13:37:47 2013 <32000 237367 496bb148f5376b38:0   1PNkjS8PoaqFPHfpmQd3igLr8py9t3zbZ BET   205.00000000 WIN    205.78884000
Wed May 22 14:43:43 2013 <2000  237375 50340e55a6affa8a:2  1Fmb5BFEjg2hjAo17dM47XJM8nKEYi3pzL BET     8.00000000 WIN    247.89254400

Quote
Total of 44 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-22 02:15pm (up to block 237411)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24056 |   21725 (0.97860) |     475 |    1856 |   25566.37 |   25139.92 |   241.34 |    426.45 |  98.332
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   148865 |  135425 (0.91575) |   12460 |     980 |   80419.27 |   79214.32 |     2.45 |   1204.95 |  98.502
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    96284 |   81802 (0.85678) |   13674 |     808 |   86217.49 |   85432.60 |   401.39 |    784.88 |  99.090
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   100936 |   79557 (0.79393) |   20649 |     730 |   68532.40 |   66858.46 |  1188.26 |   1673.94 |  97.557
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   437282 |  320541 (0.73474) |  115724 |    1017 |  317307.72 |  309522.52 |  6173.39 |   7785.20 |  97.546
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   789027 |  393352 (0.49970) |  393817 |    1858 |  726936.61 |  709965.73 |  6524.07 |  16970.88 |  97.665
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1312258 |  639386 (0.48801) |  670807 |    2065 |  939753.13 |  921172.75 |  2926.64 |  18580.38 |  98.023
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   309051 |  113289 (0.36743) |  195036 |     726 |  600364.68 |  591669.00 |  1013.84 |   8695.67 |  98.552
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   318353 |   77505 (0.24406) |  240055 |     793 |  387767.73 |  372836.00 |  2323.36 |  14931.73 |  96.149
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   133251 |   24338 (0.18359) |  108232 |     681 |  183979.11 |  185085.60 |  3315.45 |  -1106.49 | 100.601
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   235277 |   28839 (0.12292) |  205786 |     652 |  108336.82 |  107959.12 |   101.14 |    377.69 |  99.651
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    62818 |    5698 (0.09152) |   56560 |     560 |   17659.01 |   19387.47 |     7.70 |  -1728.46 | 109.788
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40488 |    2487 (0.06208) |   37577 |     424 |    8051.82 |    7963.24 |    31.47 |     88.58 |  98.900
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33047 |    1507 (0.04632) |   31029 |     511 |   10223.72 |   11231.99 |    25.47 |  -1008.27 | 109.862
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   104177 |    3165 (0.03052) |  100551 |     461 |   47790.06 |   44836.37 |     9.62 |   2953.69 |  93.819
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28004 |     642 (0.02326) |   26961 |     401 |    8128.32 |    8715.86 |    15.23 |   -587.53 | 107.228
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   161788 |    2481 (0.01540) |  158621 |     686 |   45991.12 |   42076.39 |     2.68 |   3914.73 |  91.488
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41594 |     328 (0.00804) |   40467 |     799 |    8531.04 |    6978.56 |    10.37 |   1552.48 |  81.802
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27922 |     117 (0.00426) |   27377 |     428 |    6120.59 |    8664.73 |    13.33 |  -2544.14 | 141.567
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23253 |      42 (0.00185) |   22682 |     529 |    2455.31 |    1583.28 |    48.59 |    872.03 |  64.484
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31623 |      35 (0.00113) |   31030 |     558 |    2213.88 |    1740.53 |   117.14 |    473.34 |  78.619
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31059 |      13 (0.00042) |   30588 |     458 |    1683.25 |    1831.04 |     1.61 |   -147.78 | 108.779
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25083 |       5 (0.00020) |   24583 |     495 |     891.11 |     606.69 |    22.22 |    284.42 |  68.082
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25891 |       5 (0.00020) |   25329 |     557 |     619.87 |     433.95 |    14.67 |    185.91 |  70.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15128 |       2 (0.00014) |   14585 |     541 |     218.31 |     320.42 |    18.51 |   -102.10 | 146.769
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13379 |       0 (0.00000) |   12781 |     598 |     186.09 |       0.52 |    30.29 |    185.56 |   0.280
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   148173 |       3 (0.00002) |  145569 |    2601 |    1884.70 |    3843.92 |   178.63 |  -1959.22 | 203.954
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4590796 | 1875321           | 2692996 |   22479 |  889957.43 |  874159.89 |   352.77 |  15797.53 |  98.225
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   127271 |   56968           |   70009 |     294 | 2797872.23 | 2740911.19 | 24406.21 |  56961.03 |  97.964
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4718067 | 1932289           | 2763005 |   22773 | 3687829.67 | 3615071.09 | 24758.98 |  72758.57 |  98.027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      72758.57812125 BTC (1.973%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3965.80937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68792.76874625 BTC (1.865%)
Pending Liabilities:           -1.24112049 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68794.00986674 BTC (1.865%)
Profit This Month:          -2809.39847788 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15376296  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8666430  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6755.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3574.9  (52.9%)




wtfvanity
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May 22, 2013, 09:24:20 PM
 #1387

Wow. That's when the conspiracy theories start.

I'll go first. The "secret" is being handed out to buddies.

          WTF!     Don't Click Here              
          .      .            .            .        .            .            .          .        .     .               .            .             .            .            .           .            .     .               .         .              .           .            .            .            .     .      .     .    .     .          .            .          .            .            .           .              .     .            .            .           .            .               .         .            .     .            .            .             .            .              .            .            .      .            .            .            .            .            .            .             .          .
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May 22, 2013, 09:31:28 PM
 #1388

Wow. That's when the conspiracy theories start.

I'll go first. The "secret" is being handed out to buddies.

See how crazy the profit line was in December and January?  The last two days are nothing in comparison.  <1000 and <2000 are high variance bets.  When someone starts throwing large amounts of money at them, you're going to see some wiggliness on the profit line.

But if you want conspiracy theories, I heard SDICE recent changed sysadmins.  The previous one probably had access to the secrets.

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May 22, 2013, 09:41:22 PM
 #1389

we a approaching the 1.9 line.
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May 22, 2013, 09:50:26 PM
 #1390

To put the last 2 days into perspective, here they are on the same chart as the crazy swings of December and January:


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May 22, 2013, 10:43:21 PM
 #1391

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.
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May 22, 2013, 10:46:20 PM
 #1392

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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May 22, 2013, 10:47:35 PM
 #1393

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?


Will you do the math for me?   Wink
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May 23, 2013, 12:59:49 AM
 #1394

I've said this several times for the last few months in IRC, maybe even in these forums, but I wanna do it one last time for posterity.

HOW TO RUN THE BESTEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income, except this time until he wins, keeping the profits.
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.

So you'll be starting a btc gambling site soon?

lol Smiley
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May 23, 2013, 09:15:19 AM
 #1395

I saw a bet being placed around 300btc:

http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

How can I find out if this bet won out or not?
RationalSpeculator
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May 23, 2013, 09:32:50 AM
 #1396

I saw a bet being placed around 300btc:

http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

How can I find out if this bet won out or not?


Got it, you have to look it up on satoshidice website, he lost.

Is there a way to see it simply on the blockchain if a bet won?
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May 23, 2013, 11:31:05 AM
 #1397

I need to update this, as now I realize that Erik has total access to the daily "secret" and can win bets whenever he wants.

HOW TO RUN THE BEST BTC SCAM OF 2013

1. A man makes a gambling game that is "provably fair"
2. Owner then uses all income from that game to bet back into the game anonymously, padding revenue.
3. Owner uses this hype to go public with his company, making millions of $ in bitcoins
4. Owner continues to bet income back into the system, inflating the stock value.
5. At the stock value's peak, owner releases 3 million more shares to rabid buyers, banking even further.
6. Owner stops his "whale" activity allowing stock price to plummet.
7. Owner totally neglects the business in as many ways as he can get away with (expired domain, blocking US customers, etc).
8. Owner begins "whaling" by using income to bet, except now he uses the daily secret to win, syphoning all profits out.
OPTIONAL
9. Once the stock price plummets further, he buys as much of it back as he can; he can certainly afford it.
10. Owner sells entire operation to a big name casino, cashing out totally.
11. Owner laughs his days away 'til he meets his maker.
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May 23, 2013, 11:48:58 AM
 #1398

Looks like whale got cleaned. Grats SD  Cool
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May 23, 2013, 01:43:07 PM
 #1399

Wow. That's when the conspiracy theories start.

I'll go first. The "secret" is being handed out to buddies.

See how crazy the profit line was in December and January?  The last two days are nothing in comparison.  <1000 and <2000 are high variance bets.  When someone starts throwing large amounts of money at them, you're going to see some wiggliness on the profit line.

But if you want conspiracy theories, I heard SDICE recent changed sysadmins.  The previous one probably had access to the secrets.

Lol, nice. I'm of course just kidding. But if someone had access to the secret and a tiny bit of technical knowledge, such a scenario would be possible. Make it look like a few bets here and there lose, but clean out the house doing so.

I'll stop cluttering your thread though. I watch this daily. I promise I'm not trying to derail. Just a couple bad days for SD.

          WTF!     Don't Click Here              
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dooglus
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May 23, 2013, 08:41:05 PM
 #1400

Is there a way to see it simply on the blockchain if a bet won?

Yes.  Go to the transaction page on blockchain.info:

  http://blockchain.info/tx/7912da5317d3cf4566c25eddc9cf894a2fdc641955a159847273371ca2e89f9b

Find the output that's placing the bet:

  "1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 (SatoshiDICE 50% ) 330 BTC"

if you don't see (spent) or (unspent) on that line, look at the bottom of the page, and click "Advanced: Enable".  That will make the (spent) link appear.  Click it.  You'll see the transaction which spent the bet.  That will always be the payout transaction (win or lose).  In this case it's a lose:



In this case 1.65 BTC (0.5% of the bet) goes to the address that the bet came from, and the rest is split into two equal sized addresses that SDICE owns.  They often (always?) split losing bets up into two equal smaller amounts, probably so they have a good range of coins in their wallet for paying out winners of other bets.

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