Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[qxzn]

xkcd, relevant as always

beat me to it

[bitpop]

Condolences

[dooglus]

xkcd, relevant as always

I hadn't seen that xkcd before.

I've fixed the graph script so future graphs will show the date in that format.

[dooglus]

Total of 28 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-29 11:55am (up to block 233796)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   135947 |       3 (0.00002) |  133800 |    2144 |    1715.06 |    3843.05 |   159.28 |  -2127.99 | 224.077
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12325 |       0 (0.00000) |   11759 |     566 |     169.04 |       0.43 |    22.84 |    168.61 |   0.257
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    12898 |       2 (0.00016) |   12400 |     496 |     183.38 |     320.24 |    17.49 |   -136.86 | 174.630
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25087 |       5 (0.00020) |   24556 |     526 |     601.30 |     433.86 |    10.17 |    167.44 |  72.154
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24371 |       5 (0.00021) |   23884 |     482 |     865.55 |     606.56 |    22.18 |    258.99 |  70.078
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30145 |      13 (0.00044) |   29693 |     439 |    1659.48 |    1830.92 |     1.51 |   -171.43 | 110.330
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30652 |      35 (0.00116) |   30097 |     520 |    2188.10 |    1740.40 |   116.98 |    447.70 |  79.539
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22038 |      40 (0.00186) |   21486 |     512 |    2417.09 |    1573.09 |    48.56 |    844.00 |  65.082
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27144 |     116 (0.00434) |   26609 |     419 |    6071.12 |    8661.99 |    13.29 |  -2590.87 | 142.675
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39467 |     311 (0.00804) |   38376 |     780 |    8451.91 |    6947.98 |    10.30 |   1503.92 |  82.206
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   144884 |    2224 (0.01542) |  142027 |     633 |   42880.46 |   37192.75 |     2.51 |   5687.70 |  86.736
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26628 |     605 (0.02306) |   25631 |     392 |    7996.99 |    8583.36 |    15.21 |   -586.36 | 107.332
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    94186 |    2884 (0.03076) |   90878 |     424 |   43472.34 |   38750.25 |     9.46 |   4722.08 |  89.138
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31640 |    1439 (0.04622) |   29697 |     504 |    9872.71 |   10668.73 |    25.45 |   -796.01 | 108.063
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39145 |    2400 (0.06197) |   36328 |     417 |    7865.12 |    7659.77 |    31.44 |    205.34 |  97.389
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55524 |    5043 (0.09171) |   49943 |     538 |   17126.53 |   18666.07 |     7.62 |  -1539.54 | 108.989
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   209236 |   25601 (0.12271) |  183026 |     609 |  100705.20 |   99956.90 |   100.87 |    748.29 |  99.257
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   122211 |   22302 (0.18346) |   99259 |     650 |  179818.24 |  181388.16 |  3315.30 |  -1569.92 | 100.873
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   293199 |   71340 (0.24393) |  221126 |     733 |  379174.46 |  365438.94 |  2323.04 |  13735.51 |  96.378
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   287978 |  105569 (0.36746) |  181727 |     682 |  595578.46 |  586800.57 |  1013.64 |   8777.89 |  98.526
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1222555 |  595747 (0.48807) |  624875 |    1933 |  917056.60 |  898747.52 |  2926.06 |  18309.07 |  98.003
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   699232 |  348527 (0.49960) |  349087 |    1618 |  697613.12 |  679740.81 |  6523.09 |  17872.31 |  97.438
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   405582 |  297500 (0.73512) |  107198 |     884 |  311680.59 |  304256.77 |  6172.86 |   7423.81 |  97.618
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    92698 |   73083 (0.79410) |   18950 |     665 |   65765.00 |   64208.58 |  1188.05 |   1556.42 |  97.633
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    86351 |   73399 (0.85747) |   12200 |     752 |   83489.55 |   82721.38 |   401.18 |    768.17 |  99.080
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   135932 |  123715 (0.91595) |   11353 |     864 |   77710.55 |   76563.86 |     1.85 |   1146.68 |  98.524
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22455 |   20306 (0.97860) |     444 |    1705 |   25064.43 |   24643.79 |   241.11 |    420.64 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4206500 | 1716794           | 2469113 |   20593 |  844859.32 |  830150.92 |   315.26 |  14708.40 |  98.259
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123010 |   55420           |   67296 |     294 | 2742333.19 | 2681795.95 | 24406.21 |  60537.24 |  97.792
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4329510 | 1772214           | 2536409 |   20887 | 3587192.52 | 3511946.87 | 24721.47 |  75245.64 |  97.902
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75245.64623690 BTC (2.098%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3558.15557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%)
Profit This Month:           3844.56409428 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14059370  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7930353  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6146.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3274.4  (53.3%)

[RationalSpeculator]

Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.

[thoughtfan]

Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.

Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true.  Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead

[RationalSpeculator]

Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.

Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true.  Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead

I'm being persistent

But wouldn't that be a good explanation why sdice's expected profit went down so much?

I hope so, because if this continues, the value of sdice will be cut in half.

[dooglus]

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
            3760.48177700

Total of 64 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-30 05:55pm (up to block 233980)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   136571 |       3 (0.00002) |  134408 |    2160 |    1723.80 |    3843.10 |   159.33 |  -2119.29 | 222.942
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    12450 |       0 (0.00000) |   11884 |     566 |     170.41 |       0.44 |    22.84 |    169.97 |   0.259
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    13121 |       2 (0.00016) |   12623 |     496 |     185.77 |     320.26 |    17.49 |   -134.48 | 172.390
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    25122 |       5 (0.00020) |   24590 |     527 |     601.97 |     433.86 |    13.37 |    168.11 |  72.073
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    24399 |       5 (0.00021) |   23911 |     483 |     866.05 |     606.56 |    22.19 |    259.49 |  70.037
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    30215 |      13 (0.00044) |   29763 |     439 |    1660.55 |    1830.92 |     1.51 |   -170.36 | 110.260
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30707 |      35 (0.00116) |   30152 |     520 |    2188.99 |    1740.41 |   116.98 |    448.58 |  79.507
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    22076 |      40 (0.00186) |   21522 |     514 |    2417.67 |    1573.09 |    48.56 |    844.57 |  65.067
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    27187 |     116 (0.00433) |   26652 |     419 |    6071.90 |    8661.99 |    13.29 |  -2590.08 | 142.657
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    39549 |     311 (0.00802) |   38456 |     782 |    8454.50 |    6948.00 |    10.30 |   1506.50 |  82.181
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   146137 |    2252 (0.01548) |  143247 |     638 |   42922.79 |   37261.53 |     2.52 |   5661.26 |  86.811
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26692 |     608 (0.02312) |   25692 |     392 |    7998.17 |    8588.48 |    15.21 |   -590.31 | 107.381
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    94689 |    2909 (0.03086) |   91355 |     425 |   43480.85 |   38759.82 |     9.47 |   4721.02 |  89.142
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31702 |    1443 (0.04625) |   29754 |     505 |    9874.63 |   10669.70 |    25.45 |   -795.06 | 108.052
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    39269 |    2402 (0.06182) |   36450 |     417 |    7873.65 |    7660.29 |    31.44 |    213.35 |  97.290
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    55881 |    5066 (0.09154) |   50276 |     539 |   17139.81 |   18677.12 |     7.63 |  -1537.31 | 108.969
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   210584 |   25758 (0.12268) |  184211 |     615 |  100776.26 |  100026.28 |   100.93 |    749.97 |  99.256
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   122497 |   22350 (0.18343) |   99496 |     651 |  179834.89 |  181408.21 |  3315.31 |  -1573.32 | 100.875
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   294410 |   71648 (0.24397) |  222026 |     736 |  379419.76 |  365751.96 |  2323.05 |  13667.79 |  96.398
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   288547 |  105765 (0.36741) |  182098 |     684 |  595675.46 |  586888.24 |  1013.65 |   8787.22 |  98.525
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1225527 |  597180 (0.48806) |  626410 |    1937 |  917499.89 |  899242.98 |  2926.09 |  18256.90 |  98.010
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   701423 |  349622 (0.49961) |  350170 |    1631 |  698123.78 |  680234.03 |  6523.13 |  17889.74 |  97.437
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   406771 |  298351 (0.73508) |  107527 |     893 |  311860.56 |  304443.00 |  6172.87 |   7417.56 |  97.622
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    93093 |   73404 (0.79418) |   19023 |     666 |   65867.01 |   64314.01 |  1188.05 |   1553.00 |  97.642
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    87069 |   74016 (0.85752) |   12298 |     755 |   83567.95 |   82794.79 |   401.19 |    773.16 |  99.075
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   136385 |  124123 (0.91594) |   11391 |     871 |   77821.80 |   76676.01 |     1.88 |   1145.78 |  98.528
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    22563 |   20398 (0.97856) |     447 |    1718 |   25077.31 |   24656.14 |   241.14 |    421.17 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4221577 | 1722372           | 2478520 |   20685 |  846382.85 |  831659.97 |   318.78 |  14722.87 |  98.260
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   123059 |   55453           |   67312 |     294 | 2742773.49 | 2682351.38 | 24406.21 |  60422.11 |  97.797
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4344636 | 1777825           | 2545832 |   20979 | 3589156.34 | 3514011.35 | 24724.99 |  75144.99 |  97.906
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75144.99539272 BTC (2.094%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3574.02737500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%)
Profit This Month:            -32.44032690 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 14120174  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7959294  (56.4%)
Blockchain MB:   6178.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3286.1  (53.2%)

[Dice]

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
            3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Regards

[thoughtfan]

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
            3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Regards

They're further back on this thread since dooglus started doing them.  They shouldn't be too hard to locate but if you are going to do them would you mind posting the rest of us the list of the links to the relevant posts please?

[Carnth]

Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
            3760.48177700

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

If you are only interested in monthly profit history, you can always check the official S.DICE spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc

There are tabs that have the history of every month.

[jking]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

[furuknap]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

[jking]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

[organofcorti]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.

[dooglus]

Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Yes:

                        2012/04/30    -8.34303562     
      +1977.70657444    2012/05/31  1969.36353882     
      -2486.30832957    2012/06/30  -516.94479075     
      +2526.33884886    2012/07/31  2009.39405811     
      +7745.52421697    2012/08/31  9754.91827508     
      +2213.71305627    2012/09/30 11968.63133135     
      -1995.05289803    2012/10/31  9973.57843332     
      +6176.88060145    2012/11/30 16150.45903477     
     +17171.39821715    2012/12/31 33321.85725192     
     +20021.26392603    2013/01/31 53343.12117795     
     +13333.24627993    2013/02/28 66676.36745788     
      +1166.55910974    2013/03/31 67842.92656762     
      +3760.48177700    2013/04/30 71603.40834462

[RationalSpeculator]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? 

[jking]

Just a quick question.

I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?

One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate.

.b

That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.

Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up.

How have you been able to discover this?

Can that be seen on dooglus charts?

Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? 

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

[RationalSpeculator]

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

[organofcorti]

I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12

Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?

This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.