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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177304 times)
dooglus
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April 20, 2013, 10:20:21 PM
 #1221

Quote
Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-20 03:11pm (up to block 232308)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   130538 |       3 (0.00002) |  128512 |    2023 |    1628.30 |    3842.62 |   150.88 |  -2214.31 | 235.989
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11384 |       0 (0.00000) |   10823 |     561 |     158.75 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.36 |   0.241
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11532 |       2 (0.00018) |   11043 |     487 |     167.51 |     320.16 |    14.97 |   -152.65 | 191.127
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24634 |       5 (0.00021) |   24119 |     510 |     595.56 |     433.83 |    10.14 |    161.73 |  72.844
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23761 |       4 (0.00017) |   23281 |     476 |     854.32 |     566.52 |    22.16 |    287.79 |  66.313
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29607 |      13 (0.00045) |   29170 |     424 |    1652.13 |    1830.88 |     1.48 |   -178.75 | 110.819
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30145 |      35 (0.00118) |   29596 |     514 |    2166.21 |    1740.29 |   116.96 |    425.91 |  80.338
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21599 |      39 (0.00185) |   21069 |     491 |    2402.64 |    1568.00 |    48.48 |    834.64 |  65.262
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26834 |     116 (0.00439) |   26303 |     415 |    6044.06 |    8661.85 |    13.28 |  -2617.79 | 143.312
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38930 |     309 (0.00809) |   37863 |     758 |    8428.53 |    6945.37 |    10.22 |   1483.15 |  82.403
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   140741 |    2148 (0.01533) |  137985 |     608 |   42700.62 |   37001.56 |     2.42 |   5699.06 |  86.653
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26292 |     597 (0.02304) |   25312 |     383 |    7990.43 |    8578.43 |    15.16 |   -587.99 | 107.359
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90492 |    2761 (0.03065) |   87316 |     415 |   43365.22 |   38604.96 |     9.43 |   4760.25 |  89.023
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31121 |    1421 (0.04638) |   29214 |     486 |    9856.28 |   10658.39 |    25.40 |   -802.10 | 108.138
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37878 |    2326 (0.06208) |   35139 |     413 |    7811.16 |    7601.72 |    31.42 |    209.43 |  97.319
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52961 |    4818 (0.09188) |   47619 |     524 |   17001.24 |   18544.56 |     7.57 |  -1543.31 | 109.078
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   204203 |   24980 (0.12268) |  178634 |     589 |  100465.61 |   99734.93 |   100.77 |    730.67 |  99.273
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   116874 |   21347 (0.18364) |   94899 |     628 |  179261.14 |  180886.59 |  3315.18 |  -1625.45 | 100.907
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   284802 |   69319 (0.24400) |  214779 |     704 |  377999.65 |  363868.41 |  2322.91 |  14131.23 |  96.262
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   277650 |  101809 (0.36757) |  175173 |     668 |  593769.38 |  585088.38 |  1013.57 |   8680.99 |  98.538
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1202184 |  585821 (0.48806) |  614491 |    1872 |  911942.80 |  893725.21 |  2925.78 |  18217.59 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   683002 |  340508 (0.49966) |  340972 |    1522 |  689488.47 |  672340.55 |  6522.74 |  17147.91 |  97.513
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   393686 |  288756 (0.73505) |  104082 |     848 |  310182.08 |  302730.60 |  6172.70 |   7451.48 |  97.598
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89636 |   70672 (0.79422) |   18311 |     653 |   65251.37 |   63703.41 |  1188.00 |   1547.95 |  97.628
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    81283 |   69029 (0.85682) |   11535 |     719 |   82566.92 |   81793.94 |   401.05 |    772.97 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   130320 |  118646 (0.91616) |   10858 |     816 |   76431.33 |   75312.60 |     1.64 |   1118.73 |  98.536
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21851 |   19815 (0.97900) |     425 |    1611 |   24990.29 |   24571.33 |   240.97 |    418.95 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4091583 | 1670222           | 2401537 |   19824 |  832822.06 |  818365.91 |   301.79 |  14456.14 |  98.264
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122357 |   55077           |   66986 |     294 | 2732350.05 | 2672289.68 | 24406.21 |  60060.36 |  97.802
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4213940 | 1725299           | 2468523 |   20118 | 3565172.11 | 3490655.60 | 24708.00 |  74516.50 |  97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74516.50981398 BTC (2.090%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3437.10857500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71079.40123898 BTC (1.994%)
Profit This Month:           3236.47467136 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13592456  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7718607  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5926.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3185.8  (53.8%)




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dooglus
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April 20, 2013, 10:24:26 PM
 #1222

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

FTWbitcoinFTW
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April 20, 2013, 10:29:45 PM
 #1223

http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE
Quote
The representatives of SatoshiDice further warrant that they will never sell more than half the total shares.

Still 37%, no more

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
Zaih
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April 20, 2013, 10:30:16 PM
 #1224

Looking at I think is to be the slowest month in history of SD as far as expected profit goes..

Then again, Bitcoins are more expensive now.. But still..
Fizzgig
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April 21, 2013, 04:22:16 AM
 #1225

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

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ColdHardMetal
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April 21, 2013, 04:47:25 AM
 #1226

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time.

There have always been 100 million shares.  Erik selling 3 million on behalf of a friend doesn't change anything.  Each share you own still gets one 100-millionth of the monthly profits each month.

So wait are there 13 million shares owned by the public or 10 million? I was under the impression there are now 13 million, an increase of 30% total shares outstanding.

There have always been 100 million shares owned. 10 million of those were initially released to the public with the remainder held by insiders. A few months (more or less, don't remember exactly) a further 3 million shares were released to the public, making 13 million in the hands of the public and 87 million for insiders. Nothings really changed other than who holds what.

vongesell
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April 21, 2013, 04:58:22 AM
 #1227

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

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April 21, 2013, 05:37:13 AM
 #1228

Is there any significant change in the percentage of bitcoin traffic overall that satoshidice accounts for? Increase, decrease? There was a time no too long ago that SD was the topic concerning blockchain space. Since then a lot of new services utilising bitcoin have come onto the chain. Simplistic thought: Either the utility of bitcoin has not really increased or the number of SD players has increased on par. A simple way to gauge increase utility or lack there of. Thoughts?

It's not hard to check - dooglus already publishes that information daily.

Quote
Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.
[.....]
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13592456  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7718607  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5926.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3185.8  (53.8%)

So you just have to go back through the thread, collect the "Blockchain Tx" and "SatoshiDice Tx" figures indexed by the date posted and you'll have your answer.

I must admit I'm intrigued to see what it will be, so please post the result as soon as you're done.


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vongesell
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April 21, 2013, 06:20:35 AM
 #1229


It's not hard to check - dooglus already publishes that information daily.

So you just have to go back through the thread, collect the "Blockchain Tx" and "SatoshiDice Tx" figures indexed by the date posted and you'll have your answer.

I must admit I'm intrigued to see what it will be, so please post the result as soon as you're done.

Good point!


curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='<br' '{print}' | grep -o -P '(Blockchain Tx:.*SatoshiDice Tx:.+|Results: 201[-a-zA-Z0-9]+)' | sed 's/&nbsp;//g' | less


Or graphed:


curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='<br' '{print}' | grep -o -P 'Blockchain Tx:.*SatoshiDice Tx:[^)]+' | grep -o -P '\d+.\d+%' |  gnuplot -p -e 'plot "-" with lines;'


Starts 2012-Jun-11, ends 2013-Apr-20

vongesell
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April 21, 2013, 06:27:58 AM
 #1230

Similar but percentage of MB rather than Tx:

Starts 2012-Nov-12, ends 2013-Apr-20



curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='<br' '{print}' | grep -o -P 'Blockchain MB:.*SatoshiDice MB:[^)]+' | grep -o -P '\d+.\d+%' |  gnuplot -p -e 'plot "-" with lines;'

organofcorti
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April 21, 2013, 06:42:25 AM
 #1231

Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

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dooglus
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April 21, 2013, 06:49:34 AM
 #1232

Similar but percentage of MB rather than Tx:

Similar, but smoother (recalculating the percentage, not using the rounded figure from the reports):



curl 'https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=printpage;topic=80312.0' | awk -v RS='<br' '{print}' | grep -o -P 'Blockchain MB:.*SatoshiDice MB:[^)]+' | sed -r 's/[^0-9]*([0-9]+[.][0-9]+)[^0-9]*([0-9]+[.][0-9]+).*/\1 \2/' | gnuplot -p -e 'plot "-" using (100*$2/$1) with lines;'

vongesell
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April 21, 2013, 06:52:39 AM
 #1233

Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

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April 21, 2013, 06:59:02 AM
 #1234

Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each.  I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.

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April 21, 2013, 07:05:18 AM
 #1235

Nice work!

Now, you just need to plot the USD BTC price (at the dates corresponding to your data points) against each data point, and you'll be able to see what sort correlation exists before you go messing about with linear models.

Why would it be important to add USD BTC price to the graph? Do you mean I need to take into account the change in total number of bets placed due to increased stakes caused by BTCUSD? I also graphed the total number of bets and there is a slight hump beginning of year but now back to the usual constant slope. Sure, more $$ a play but same number of TX's. Implying that the Satoshidice TX load has not changed much. Yet despite this one would expect it's share of the blockchain to decrease. Potentially, and based on the first graph, its share is indeed decreasing, very slowly, for the past couple months. Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Sorry, I thought you were implying something in your original post that you weren't - is the change in the percentage of SatoshiDice Tx related to the USDBTC price? I would expect that, since there's a minimum amount of btc that can be bet, as the exchange rate increases the minimum btc bet becomes much higher in terms of fiat and might start to price some players out of the market.

So I'd be expecting a negative correlation between number of SatoshiDice tx and USDBTC price. That recent dip in the percentage of SatoshiDice tx's in the blockchain is rather suggestive.

You could check this, not by adding the price to your chart, but by scatter-plotting the tx as a function of price - the y axis the daily change in number of tx, the x axis the daily change in price. I expect you'd need to do it on a log-log axis , or plot the logs of the daily tx change and daily price change.

I'd do it but I'm in the middle of something else right now. So .... Wink

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vongesell
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April 21, 2013, 07:20:03 AM
 #1236

Still, this leaves me to wonder about why other forms of utility and services in bitcoin have not displaced satoshidice more.

Probably because you only buy reddit gold once a year, whereas your satoshidice bets cause two transactions each.  I mean the impact on the blockchain per customer is much higher for satoshidice than it is for pretty much any other company.

Agreed. Just comparing to the 2012 percentage and drop from June around 68% share to 55% two months later i would have guessed to see a similar change more recently due to new bitcoin services. I do not remember what changed their share so drastically then (june 2012+) vs now. Anyway, for numerologists and other religions it's interesting perhaps to watch SDice share as a measure of speculation movements vs utility.


So I'd be expecting a negative correlation between number of SatoshiDice tx and USDBTC price. That recent dip in the percentage of SatoshiDice tx's in the blockchain is rather suggestive.

I agree and kind of take this assumption for granted. Though perhaps it would be nice to graph. Always nice to GRAPH! Smiley

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April 21, 2013, 09:41:35 PM
 #1237

Quote
Total of 27 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-21 02:34pm (up to block 232481)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   131081 |       3 (0.00002) |  129050 |    2028 |    1637.29 |    3842.66 |   150.90 |  -2205.37 | 234.696
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11392 |       0 (0.00000) |   10830 |     562 |     158.84 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.45 |   0.242
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11557 |       2 (0.00018) |   11068 |     487 |     167.87 |     320.17 |    14.97 |   -152.29 | 190.716
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    24660 |       5 (0.00021) |   24144 |     511 |     595.84 |     433.83 |    10.15 |    162.00 |  72.810
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23773 |       4 (0.00017) |   23292 |     477 |     854.72 |     566.53 |    22.17 |    288.19 |  66.282
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    29629 |      13 (0.00045) |   29190 |     426 |    1652.52 |    1830.88 |     1.49 |   -178.35 | 110.793
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    30181 |      35 (0.00118) |   29630 |     516 |    2166.61 |    1740.29 |   116.96 |    426.31 |  80.323
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21668 |      39 (0.00184) |   21131 |     498 |    2403.63 |    1568.01 |    48.51 |    835.62 |  65.235
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26851 |     116 (0.00439) |   26319 |     416 |    6044.23 |    8661.85 |    13.29 |  -2617.62 | 143.308
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38986 |     310 (0.00811) |   37916 |     760 |    8429.44 |    6946.62 |    10.23 |   1482.81 |  82.409
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   141119 |    2158 (0.01536) |  138350 |     611 |   42727.39 |   37028.39 |     2.42 |   5699.00 |  86.662
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26316 |     597 (0.02302) |   25335 |     384 |    7990.82 |    8578.43 |    15.17 |   -587.60 | 107.354
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90921 |    2777 (0.03068) |   87728 |     416 |   43396.53 |   38666.65 |     9.44 |   4729.88 |  89.101
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31217 |    1422 (0.04628) |   29304 |     491 |    9858.41 |   10658.93 |    25.41 |   -800.52 | 108.120
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37958 |    2332 (0.06212) |   35211 |     415 |    7813.76 |    7605.15 |    31.43 |    208.60 |  97.330
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    53147 |    4836 (0.09190) |   47786 |     525 |   17013.98 |   18557.85 |     7.57 |  -1543.87 | 109.074
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   204503 |   25008 (0.12264) |  178900 |     595 |  100493.93 |   99754.72 |   100.81 |    739.21 |  99.264
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   117375 |   21430 (0.18356) |   95316 |     629 |  179327.69 |  180959.83 |  3315.18 |  -1632.14 | 100.910
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   285281 |   69430 (0.24398) |  215145 |     706 |  378032.78 |  363899.26 |  2322.92 |  14133.52 |  96.261
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   278567 |  102155 (0.36760) |  175741 |     671 |  593885.44 |  585207.53 |  1013.58 |   8677.90 |  98.539
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1203998 |  586721 (0.48807) |  615399 |    1878 |  912321.67 |  894172.35 |  2925.81 |  18149.31 |  98.011
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   684357 |  341150 (0.49962) |  341674 |    1533 |  689729.04 |  672539.28 |  6522.77 |  17189.75 |  97.508
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   394888 |  289662 (0.73512) |  104372 |     854 |  310345.40 |  302909.60 |  6172.74 |   7435.80 |  97.604
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89897 |   70859 (0.79401) |   18383 |     655 |   65272.22 |   63720.53 |  1188.01 |   1551.68 |  97.623
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    81642 |   69334 (0.85683) |   11585 |     723 |   82629.55 |   81855.91 |   401.07 |    773.64 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   130766 |  119042 (0.91612) |   10899 |     825 |   76509.99 |   75391.49 |     1.71 |   1118.49 |  98.538
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21923 |   19870 (0.97896) |     427 |    1626 |   24995.24 |   24576.28 |   240.98 |    418.95 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4101269 | 1674213           | 2407132 |   19924 |  833883.99 |  819395.90 |   302.18 |  14488.09 |  98.263
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122384 |   55097           |   66993 |     294 | 2732570.95 | 2672597.63 | 24406.21 |  59973.31 |  97.805
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4223653 | 1729310           | 2474125 |   20218 | 3566454.94 | 3491993.54 | 24708.40 |  74461.40 |  97.912
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74461.40675118 BTC (2.088%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3447.26097500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71014.14577618 BTC (1.991%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71014.14577618 BTC (1.991%)
Profit This Month:           3171.21920856 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13636278  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7736582  (56.7%)
Blockchain MB:   5947.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3193.3  (53.7%)




Stephen Gornick
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April 21, 2013, 11:05:12 PM
 #1238

We are either at or within a day or two of coming up on the one year anniversary of SatoshiDICE.  I see the forum post for it is April 24th, 2012 but the list of secrets goes back to April 17th, 2012.

When was the first real wager on SatoshiDICE placed?

dooglus
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April 22, 2013, 06:06:52 AM
 #1239

We are either at or within a day or two of coming up on the one year anniversary of SatoshiDICE.  I see the forum post for it is April 24th, 2012 but the list of secrets goes back to April 17th, 2012.

When was the first real wager on SatoshiDICE placed?

I don't know how to tell what wagers are real, and what are test bets, but the first bet was in block 176627 (2012-04-21 17:02:44) and a bunch more were in block 176629 (2012-04-21 17:28:41).

So I'd say we just passed the first anniversary.

This: https://blockchain.info/tx-index/4228396/1 appears to be the first ever bet.

ar9
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April 22, 2013, 08:58:19 PM
 #1240

Despite the absolutely travesty that is their front-end website, it is nice to see S.DICE pulling a profit this month.
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