Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Shortcovering? Right on cue

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=559706

Looks like the retailers that followed armstrongs advice and shorted are about to be taught another lesson.. pigs gettin slaughtered

I call you out as a liar. Quote Armstrong to support your allegation.

Armstrong has made no specific short-term trading predictions. He NEVER does. Never. On the short-term, he gives a series of possibilities based on closing prices and other requirements.

Innumerable times he has written that the short-term is inherently more noisy than the long-term in terms of predictions.

[1715314813]

1715314813

[SmoothCurves]

Is there any independent evidence that this slide was really shown in 1998?

[TPTB_need_war]

Is there any independent evidence that this slide was really shown in 1998?

Several people who were at the conference have attested to it.

No one who was at the conference has come forward saying he lied.

[sidhujag]

Shortcovering? Right on cue

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=559706

Looks like the retailers that followed armstrongs advice and shorted are about to be taught another lesson.. pigs gettin slaughtered

I call you out as a liar. Quote Armstrong to support your allegation.

Armstrong has made no specific short-term trading predictions. He NEVER does. Never. On the short-term, he gives a series of possibilities based on closing prices and other requirements.

Innumerable times he has written that the short-term is inherently more noisy than the long-term in terms of predictions.

Some people brought it up here saying it would test the lows if that happens and my manipulator theory alarm went off saying its probably going to do exactly that, get in the pigs and then slaughter them on the way up which it is doing now.

See this post by armstrong: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37438

so based on that we already had a close below 16160 now lets get a close weekly below 16250 and then a bullish week following to validate the manipulator theory, which yes is more of a short term predictor.

Actually if you take a look at retail forex positioning you can make good money by simply going against what the herd is doing. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions

FXCM has an indicator that acts as a contrarian to these positions: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2012/08/30/The_Speculative_Sentiment_Index.html

[TPTB_need_war]

If Martin's model is to be believed. How low can we expect Bitcoin to go? and by When? Is Under $100 in Spring of '16 a safe bet?

I think bitcoin does not go low, he doesnt state anything about bitcoin

Dollar going high is pretty much the same as bitcoin going low, all else being equal.

On what basis?

I see so many people here attempting to comment about Armstrong's classification of Private vs Public and they haven't taken the time to understand what he means by the distinction. How can someone feel they are capable of commenting on something they haven't even taken the time to get the definition of? It would be likely speaking a language without having ever opened a dictionary to understand the meaning of words.

Public means the confidence in this asset is correlated with the confidence in government. Private means the confidence in this asset is correlated with the lack of confidence in government.

With that in mind, Bitcoin is clearly Private, because its entire raison d'être, is because we don't trust any government nor central bank to manage the money supply and instead we want that control decentralized into an algorithmic protocol.

Armstrong's entire point about whether the US stock market would double before 2015.75 or after, was all about whether US stocks (and the dollar) would continue to behave as a Public asset, or would they phase shift and become a Private asset (and rise while interest rates are rising, i.e. rising when the general economic outlook is tightening and worsening thus not being bought for income potential but rather like gold bought for being a hedge against government). It became clear by the end of 2014 that the latter was the case.

What has happen is the entire world will look at the dollar and US stocks as a hedge against the collapse of government every where outside the USA from 2015.75 to 2017.9 (not because stocks can't be confiscated by government but because it will be the only mainsteam, high market cap asset not collapsing). After 2017.9, the world will become very confused because the artificial boost the USA got from the stampede of international capital into the USA during that period will have peaked and with the sky high dollar (and stock valuations) and the rest of the world utterly imploding due to being short the dollar and overloaded with debt, the USA will start to implode. So after 2017.9, capital is going to be very confused where to turn to. At that point, the dollar and stocks may shift back towards Public assets especially if the USA and other governments start to attack all traceable assets. At that point, all that will be remaining are gold and any crypto that can survive the onslaught by government capital controls and interference with the internet. But one big problem is these private assets do not have sufficient market cap to absorb the $trillions of international capital (and their market caps can't grow that fast without becoming speculative bubbles that will burst due to the wealth effect where market caps rise faster than the capital actually invested in the market cap[1]). If the government is able to block all avenues for Private wealth, then we will collapse into a Dark Age where only food is money.

So in 2016, there will be growing lack of confidence in government worldwide, growing attacks on wealth by governments, and thus more desire for Private assets. The lowest hanging fruit with the largest market cap is the US dollar and US stocks (if for example the USA is benefiting enough from the ingress of capital to raise interest rates and avoid any increase in onerous capital controls for the time being). Other private assets that are speculative in nature will also catch a bid, such as crypto and gold, because there doesn't take much interest to send their market caps up and ignite the speculative ingress (speculative ducks following each other). But first we have to get through this liquidity crunch as capital runs to the safe haven of short-term bonds given the contagion in Europe, China, Japan, and now enveloping Brazil and even Australia. The BIG BANG is this contagion running to short-term bonds which will be the final peak in sovereign bonds, and when interest rates start rising they will be very caustic because government debts have moved mostly short-term thus interest on the debt will rise very quickly.

There won't be any global monetary reset before 2020.05. We have to go through the pain first before all the nations will be accepting of such. I am not clear yet if the global monetary reset will come 2020ish or more towards 2024 - 2032.

[1]

This is why one of my big goals with an altcoin is to try to radically accelerate use as a currency with microtransactions, because I see that may  be the only way to scale fast enough without a speculative bubble. It is a long shot, but I am trying. We've got to get that ball rolling now, so sufficient scale can be achieved before the end of 2017.

[suda123]

Shortcovering? Right on cue

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=559706

Looks like the retailers that followed armstrongs advice and shorted are about to be taught another lesson.. pigs gettin slaughtered

I call you out as a liar. Quote Armstrong to support your allegation.

Armstrong has made no specific short-term trading predictions. He NEVER does. Never. On the short-term, he gives a series of possibilities based on closing prices and other requirements.

Innumerable times he has written that the short-term is inherently more noisy than the long-term in terms of predictions.

Some people brought it up here saying it would test the lows if that happens and my manipulator theory alarm went off saying its probably going to do exactly that, get in the pigs and then slaughter them on the way up which it is doing now.

See this post by armstrong: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37438

so based on that we already had a close below 16160 now lets get a close weekly below 16250 and then a bullish week following to validate the manipulator theory, which yes is more of a short term predictor.

Actually if you take a look at retail forex positioning you can make good money by simply going against what the herd is doing. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions

FXCM has an indicator that acts as a contrarian to these positions: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2012/08/30/The_Speculative_Sentiment_Index.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/3myf30/til_after_a_federal_reserve_interest_rate/

TIL after a Federal Reserve interest rate decision in 2013, trades were registered in the Chicago stock market within 2 milliseconds of the announcement. These trades were later found to be insider trading, as this information would take 7 milliseconds to reach Chicago at the speed of light.

]ani62516 3769 points 11 hours ago
However, the news was released to the public in Washington D.C. at exactly 2:00 pm calibrated by atomic clock, and takes seven milliseconds to reach Chicago at the speed of light. Contrary to claims by high-frequency trader Virtu Financial, anything faster is not physically possible. It was concluded the high-speed traders in question had to receive the news under embargo from proprietary feed servers in Chicago that were pre-loaded with the Fed's announcement.
Timing is everything.
permalinksavereportgive goldreply
[–]Anhanguera 4851 points 11 hours ago
That moment you get caught because you forgot to account for the speed of light...


Oh god LOL

[TPTB_need_war]

See this post by armstrong: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37438

Please read that post very carefully. No where does it say the slingshot move to 13000-14000 must come immediately after closing below those 16000ish benchmarks. It is a probabilistic prediction for price (not a certainty just an increase in probability), not for time. Innumerable times Armstrong has made the point that PRICE and TIME are independent in his model.

That event has raised the probability that we will visit those lows sometime before we blast off to new highs (i.e. bottom sometime between now and 2016.825), but it says nothing at all about what will happen tomorrow or the next day.

The computer is apparently picking up on a pattern that seems to be that all stock markets are going to make lows while this move to short-term sovereign bonds peaks after 2015.75. We are likely looking at Spring before the last vestiges of stampede into bonds has run its course and we are ready to stampede back into Private assets.

That move down doesn't have to be a straight line. Markets always inhale and exhale to maximize the pain for the most greater fools along the way.

That doesn't mean it is a certainty that we will have a stampede into short-term sovereign bonds (final peak in government) and a severe pullback on stocks, but the probabilities are pointing more strongly in that direction apparently. The computer is able to monitor many more patterns and incorporating much more data than we humans can. It can even extract order from chaos by correlating more disparate data and even order within dimensions of data that we don't normally consider.

[DigiLab]

Armstrong's entire point about whether the US stock market would double before 2015.75 or after, was all about whether US stocks (and the dollar) would continue to behave as a Public asset, or would they phase shift and become a Private asset (and rise while interest rates are rising, i.e. rising when the general economic outlook is tightening and worsening thus not being bought for income potential but rather like gold bought for being a hedge against government). It became clear by the end of 2014 that the latter was the case.

What has happen is the entire world will look at the dollar and US stocks as a hedge against the collapse of government every where outside the USA from 2015.75 to 2017.9 (not because stocks can't be confiscated by government but because it will be the only mainsteam, high market cap asset not collapsing). After 2017.9, the world will become very confused because the artificial boost the USA got from the stampede of international capital into the USA during that period will have peaked and with the sky high dollar (and stock valuations) and the rest of the world utterly imploding due to being short the dollar and overloaded with debt, the USA will start to implode. So after 2017.9, capital is going to be very confused where to turn to. At that point, the dollar and stocks may shift back towards Public assets especially if the USA and other governments start to attack all traceable assets. At that point, all that will be remaining are gold and any crypto that can survive the onslaught by government capital controls and interference with the internet. But one big problem is these private assets do not have sufficient market cap to absorb the $trillions of international capital (and their market caps can't grow that fast without become speculative bubbles that will burst due to the wealth effect where market caps rise faster than the capital actually invested in the market cap[1]). If the government is able to block all avenues for Private wealth, then we will collapse into a Dark Age where only food is money.

TPTB, beautiful and impressive, that sums it up pretty well.
I found out about M.A. around half a year ago. Myself being an engineer, I don't want to learn, I want to understand.
And for me that was possible only following M.A.

http://armstrongeconomics-wp.s3.amazonaws.com/2015/09/FEDFOR-M-9-28-2015.jpg

Guys, how the above can be interpreted? The way I see it, FEDs would rise the rate in October, but not quite in a small step.
E.g. maybe 1% or 2%, and then in November in December trim it down for, let's say around 0.25%, and then up for around 0.25% in January??

The FED will definitely not raise 1-2% in October and I don't think that diagram suggest that. As Armstrong says, the FED is completely powerless from now on - they lost all their credibility to do anything about the economy. Though a new QE could make some noise temporary in the markets.

altcoinUK, appreciate the Input. I agree that FED can not do anything about the economy, in a fashion to turn it around.
Still though, that doesn't quite stop them from not doing anything.

TPTB, do you maybe have some thoughts for the FED Rate array above. According to this (if I interpret it correctly), there is a possibility that FED will raise the rate in October. I'm not trying to find a reason why the FED would do it, but what would be the trigger that would stipulate the FED to make that move.

[smooth]

If Martin's model is to be believed. How low can we expect Bitcoin to go? and by When? Is Under $100 in Spring of '16 a safe bet?

I think bitcoin does not go low, he doesnt state anything about bitcoin

Dollar going high is pretty much the same as bitcoin going low, all else being equal.

On what basis?

Because the main usage of Bitcoin is speculation and it frequently trades in line with commodities (and likewise inverse with the dollar) as others have pointed out here.

That's not a fixed relationship, but it is a good baseline for the short term. Even the Bitcoin peak in 2013 coincides with a relatively low in the dollar. Although gold peaked a bit earlier, in 2012, both Bitcoin and gold have collapsed as the dollar strengthened in 2014 and 2015.

[TPTB_need_war]

If Martin's model is to be believed. How low can we expect Bitcoin to go? and by When? Is Under $100 in Spring of '16 a safe bet?

I think bitcoin does not go low, he doesnt state anything about bitcoin

Dollar going high is pretty much the same as bitcoin going low, all else being equal.

On what basis?

Because the main usage of Bitcoin is speculation and it frequently trades in line with commodities (and likewise inverse with the dollar) as others have pointed out here.

That's not a fixed relationship, but it is a good baseline for the short term. Even the Bitcoin peak in 2013 coincides with a relatively low in the dollar. Although gold peaked a bit earlier, in 2012, both Bitcoin and gold have collapsed as the dollar strengthened in 2014 and 2015.

I am one of those who argued that other than an initial acceleration because it was new, Bitcoin had more or less correlated with gold with the short-term noise filtered out. I believe my posts on that are in klee's PnF thread.

But the entire point is dollar and the US stocks will shift to align with Private assets because of this unique situation where the dollar is the reserve currency and the $9 trillion of QE ended up as a bond carry trade abroad due to the effects of ZIRP incentivizing bond investors to seek yield abroad and the Western and China Central Banks essentially guaranteeing that emerging markets would not be allowed to go down by not allowing any defaults any where. Thus now there is this massive short position on the dollar which can't unwind without causing the dollar to appreciate which will in turn cause investors to want to hold US dollar denominated investments and thus will ignite a speculative frenzy into US stocks (because all other assets around the world are collapsing, Minsky Moment deflation is accelerating).

The BIG BANG is all about this massive phase shift. Evidence even China's Central Bank head has admitted in public that the bubble has burst and they can't stop it.

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

We've been waiting for this for a long time. Finally the distinction between gold as a commodity and gold as private money arrives. The problem for gold is that it is physical and the governments are very good at tracking physical things now, because cash is not very physical any more. Any significant value of transaction is rarely done with cash any more and this will become even more and more the case over the coming years.

Thus crypto... and that is why we are all here... and that is why I am happy to report I am having my 3rd consecutive day of good health. Hopefully we can get this coding running at full speed now. Fingers crossed.

[smooth]

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

Only once the US government shows signs of collapsing which won't happen right away. In fact rising US stocks (and likely other asset prices, except maybe bonds) will boost capital gains tax collections, especially once the retail investors jumps on board, incomes will grow as the asset bubble drives jobs (and regular income tax collections), and the government will initially look to be in better shape than ever.

The problems in the emerging markets will be blamed on low productivity, corruption, speculative excesses, etc. (which has some basis in fact which is what makes it plausible), just as we have seen in the Euro zone.

Only later is it plausible that the government will look to be in trouble and gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will get a bid.

[TPTB_need_war]

On interest rates, the market has always been the one driving the rates but with the Central Banks being willing to prevent any defaults aiding the process. The move into ZIRP was aided by expecting more of the same, thus capital gains in spite of not receiving any yield.

We've got the situation now were everyone is moving to the short-end of the curve (short-term sovereign bonds), because it is very uncertain if the world's central banks can do another coordinated bailout with the debt default situation much worse now in Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, Australia, etc than it was in 2008.

Whereas, the US banks were recapitalized and are not facing this imminent menace.

So we've got a lopsided situation now where the USA does not have the political nor economic incentive to participate in a global bailout.

Thus as ZIRP reaches its zenith, there is nothing more to be made on capital gains there. Capital will ignite a US stock market frenzy and this will pull capital out of the bond markets thus accelerating the losses for those still holding them and making it clear that ZIRP is gone (at least for the time being).

Thus the free market will raise the rates and the Fed will have to follow or be irrelevant.

Will the governments get coordinated again for a massive bailout after 2017.9 when the US peaks on this dollar short covering ingress stampede? I don't think so because the rest of the world will have already collapsed so they don't have the incentive because the USA destroyed them and didn't help them, so why should they help the USA as it starts to roll over. Also the politics in the USA is turning radically against government. By 2017.9, it should be much further along.

We are headed into extreme chaos and financial upheaval. This is the free markets taking over. The Fed will become increasingly irrelevant over the years.

[TPTB_need_war]

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

Only once the US government shows signs of collapsing which won't happen right away. In fact rising US stocks (and likely other asset prices, except maybe bonds) will boost capital gains tax collections, especially once the retail investors jumps on board, incomes will grow as the asset bubble drives jobs (and regular income tax collections), and the government will initially look to be in better shape than ever.

The problems in the emerging markets will be blamed on low productivity, corruption, speculative excesses, etc. (which has some basis in fact which is what makes it plausible), just as we have seen in the Euro zone.

Only later is it plausible that the government will look to be in trouble and gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will get a bid.

Gold will catch a bid along with US stocks because the rest of the world will be in such collapsing chaos. It won't take much capital moving into gold to reignite its bull market, because it is such a small market cap. Not everyone can buy the US stock market. Some abroad will buy gold and crypto instead. The bottom for gold and crypto should be some time between Spring and 2016.825. We are waiting for the burgeoning contagion to really bust out with a final peak in sovereign bonds.

Also generally speaking there will be much fewer assets to choose from, as most will be collapsing. This will focus attention on those small market cap assets with huge upside and correlated with the demand for things that do well when government is collapsing.

And even more so for Bitcoin and even more, more so for small market altcoins that have something unique to offer that is really necessary (if there are any).

[smooth]

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

Only once the US government shows signs of collapsing which won't happen right away. In fact rising US stocks (and likely other asset prices, except maybe bonds) will boost capital gains tax collections, especially once the retail investors jumps on board, incomes will grow as the asset bubble drives jobs (and regular income tax collections), and the government will initially look to be in better shape than ever.

The problems in the emerging markets will be blamed on low productivity, corruption, speculative excesses, etc. (which has some basis in fact which is what makes it plausible), just as we have seen in the Euro zone.

Only later is it plausible that the government will look to be in trouble and gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will get a bid.

Gold will catch a bid along with US stocks because the rest of the world will be in such collapsing chaos.

Money will flow into gold certainly, but whether gold rises against the dollar is less obvious. Maybe it will, I don't rule it out. But I have a hard time seeing how gold is the best play when everyone is rushing into the dollar as a safe haven. Maybe second best, and maybe a good hedge in case the reversal comes sooner than expected.

[TPTB_need_war]

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

Only once the US government shows signs of collapsing which won't happen right away. In fact rising US stocks (and likely other asset prices, except maybe bonds) will boost capital gains tax collections, especially once the retail investors jumps on board, incomes will grow as the asset bubble drives jobs (and regular income tax collections), and the government will initially look to be in better shape than ever.

The problems in the emerging markets will be blamed on low productivity, corruption, speculative excesses, etc. (which has some basis in fact which is what makes it plausible), just as we have seen in the Euro zone.

Only later is it plausible that the government will look to be in trouble and gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will get a bid.

Gold will catch a bid along with US stocks because the rest of the world will be in such collapsing chaos.

Money will flow into gold certainly, but whether gold rises against the dollar is less obvious. Maybe it will, I don't rule it out. But I have a hard time seeing how gold is the best play when everyone is rushing into the dollar as a safe haven. Maybe second best, and maybe a good hedge in case the reversal comes sooner than expected.

Gold is so much a smaller market cap thus it could easily see a 50% move up in a year (from an impending low < $850) without being in a phase transition (blow off peak) but if the dollar moves 50% you know we are near the end of its speculative bubble (2017.9).

Bitcoin will easily rise off its $100 lows (coming this Spring as the liquidity contagion hits) back up to the $200 or $300 level.

[smooth]

Not everyone can buy the US stock market. Some abroad will buy gold and crypto instead. The bottom for gold and crypto should be some time between Spring and 2016.825. We are waiting for the burgeoning contagion to really bust out with a final peak in sovereign bonds.

Also generally speaking there will be much fewer assets to choose from, as most will be collapsing. This will focus attention on those small market cap assets with huge upside and correlated with the demand for things that do well when government is collapsing.

Okay yeah I agree with this, especially with the somewhat later timing than I thought you meant earlier.

I do think the Fed may have thrown a bit of a yellow flag on it by delaying the rate increase, so things may happen later. Eventually they will face irresistible pressure to start the increase though, and that's the latest the dominos start to fall, if not sooner.

And even more so for Bitcoin and even more, more so for small market altcoins that have something unique to offer that is really necessary (if there are any).

I think when you are playing a speculative move into low cap assets it doesn't really matter if they have anything unique. LTC should do fine for example. Even DASH will do fine, maybe even better because of implied commitment to supply manipulation.

[jehst]

Bitcoin will easily rise off its $100 lows (coming this Spring as the liquidity contagion hits) back up to the $200 or $300 level.

The insanely specific predictions (that won't come to pass) take away from reasonable points.

[smooth]

Bitcoin will easily rise off its $100 lows (coming this Spring as the liquidity contagion hits) back up to the $200 or $300 level.

The insanely specific predictions (that won't come to pass) take away from reasonable points.

But what if they do?

[sidhujag]

See this post by armstrong: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37438

Please read that post very carefully. No where does it say the slingshot move to 13000-14000 must come immediately after closing below those 16000ish benchmarks. It is a probabilistic prediction for price (not a certainty just an increase in probability), not for time. Innumerable times Armstrong has made the point that PRICE and TIME are independent in his model.

That event has raised the probability that we will visit those lows sometime before we blast off to new highs (i.e. bottom sometime between now and 2016.825), but it says nothing at all about what will happen tomorrow or the next day.

The computer is apparently picking up on a pattern that seems to be that all stock markets are going to make lows while this move to short-term sovereign bonds peaks after 2015.75. We are likely looking at Spring before the last vestiges of stampede into bonds has run its course and we are ready to stampede back into Private assets.

That move down doesn't have to be a straight line. Markets always inhale and exhale to maximize the pain for the most greater fools along the way.

That doesn't mean it is a certainty that we will have a stampede into short-term sovereign bonds (final peak in government) and a severe pullback on stocks, but the probabilities are pointing more strongly in that direction apparently. The computer is able to monitor many more patterns and incorporating much more data than we humans can. It can even extract order from chaos by correlating more disparate data and even order within dimensions of data that we don't normally consider.

Ofcourse thats how id read it as an experienced trader but alot of people interpret that as its going down right away esp if weekly close is around there. Markets usually make new highs after new lows on any tf.. To try to trap as much volume as possible for purposes of making money

Btw about these bitcoin prices im usually pretty good at picking prices that stand out for large reversals (from staring at charts for so many years day after day) and around $900 when it was apparant btc was in search for new buying volume i thought $260ish CAD was about the price of reversal, so we have been here for a while making it a stronger and stronger predictor for me as the spring coils up. I think it may be waiting for ltc to finally bottom under $1 so the train can leave.

[TPTB_need_war]

Is everyone still betting against my < $150 prediction for the final capitulation low. It is lonely being correct all the time.    (really I know I am not and I don't try to call every short-term move, but a liquidity contagion always takes down gold and small caps, ALWAYS  ... and remember the smaller the market cap, the more extreme the moves especially now that Bitcoin can be easily shorted)

Seriously though, gold and Bitcoin haven't capitulated yet, because there are still guys like you saying it can't. Once all of you are humbled, then the bottom will be in, I'll be buying with both fists (assuming I still have fists that move and any money which is also dubious) and many of you will have become dismayed and hesitant.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. The contagion isn't even underway yet. Just wait grasshoppers for your lesson.