Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong has never said that interest rates would turn higher on the day of 2015.75.

It has always been about knowing that 2015.75 marked a sea change in the fact that Europe (and Japan with Abenomics and China with its repeated reinflations) had been able to forestall their collapse ever since Mario Draghi (another Goldman Sachs alumni) had made his famous "line in the sand" speech. It demarcates a shifting from the bounce to 2011, then the forestalling treading water from 2011 to 2016, and now the drive into the abyss but with the international capital running home to the dollar for one last hooray for the dollar reserve system. Then after 2017.9, total chaos.

If you are focused on some market pricing event that happens on 2015.75, then you haven't even understood anything about the ECM and Armstrong's modeling.

[1714711688]

1714711688

[smooth]

He made this realization today as numbers came out and got it wrong today simple as that.

If he isn't considering noise he should just wait for a weekly blog entry instead of jumping the gun on the first 30 min red candle.

Can't you fucking what I wrote. You are entirely wrong. Nothing has changed in his model of what is happening. Read again my post

You are guys are so fucking stupid.

Again you need to reread what I wrote. He should just wait instead of jumping the gun, I already know what hes saying at a macro level, however hard to come back in 15 years and say hey you were wrong! I'm seeing his daily projections to be pretty much dead wrong (like I expected) so perhaps its in his interest to stop posting market predictions daily.

What are you making such a big deal about here? He makes long term (years, decades, centuries, etc.) models and predictions and he also writes about short term market movements. They have nothing necessarily to do with each other except that obviously the short term and the long term are two views of the same thing.

[sidhujag]

He made this realization today as numbers came out and got it wrong today simple as that.

If he isn't considering noise he should just wait for a weekly blog entry instead of jumping the gun on the first 30 min red candle.

Can't you fucking what I wrote. You are entirely wrong. Nothing has changed in his model of what is happening. Read again my post

You are guys are so fucking stupid.

Again you need to reread what I wrote. He should just wait instead of jumping the gun, I already know what hes saying at a macro level, however hard to come back in 15 years and say hey you were wrong! I'm seeing his daily projections to be pretty much dead wrong (like I expected) so perhaps its in his interest to stop posting market predictions daily.

What are you making such a big deal about here? He makes long term (years, decades, centuries, etc.) models and predictions and he also writes about short term market movements. They have nothing necessarily to do with each other except that obviously the short term and the long term are two views of the same thing.

Anonymint has read his blogs and knows them like the back of his hand so ill just assume that his realization today is consistent with his macro view.. I will pay attention to his macro views not so much short term one

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong speculates about the how the short-term events are interacting with his longer-term macro cycles. He has clarified numerous times those short-term discussions are not predictions. They are a combination of signals that his various shorter-term models give, and his personal interpretations which morph over time as he gains clarity.

But that has nothing to do with the more reliable cycles. He has stated numerous times that the short-term is much more noisy than the longer-term cycle turns.

And again today he clarified the jobs number and its implied impact on interest rates is just noise:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37698

The prevailing thinking to emerge from the job numbers alone are to confusing to say the least. They lead to the assumption that the U.S. economy has downshifted for the last three consecutive months.

The other side of the job numbers is the economic evolution underway. The introduction of technology is reducing jobs since basic jobs can be replaced with machines. We are seeing this trend everywhere. South Africa’s gold-mining companies are also now turning to machines to replace workers to reduce the cost of mining gold. This is a trend that is impacting the global economy. This is a wave of innovation which unsettles the economy and some jobs vanish as new types of jobs are created requiring different skill sets.

So the jobs number is nothing to get all excited over. You can see the stark contrast as  household incomes are showing a sharp gain, which is reflected in car sales accelerating toward record levels. The jobs number by itself is not altogether a key indicator. The markets will collapse and rally based upon it, but that is trading noise.

[sidhujag]

will let this one slide noone is perfect

[TPTB_need_war]

will let this one slide noone is perfect

You are talking about yourself, because you are the one who tried to ascribe to Armstrong predictions which he has never asserted as predictions. You are trying to build a strawman in order spread FUD about him and discredit him.

He provides some short-term trading models, but these are not predictions. They are probablistic models that can guide savvy traders into winning more frequently than losing. But they were never advertised to be iron-clad predictions in stone.

How many times has Armstrong written:

• The short-term is inherently more noisy than the long-term.
• PRICE and TIME projections are independent.
• I state when the computer is talking, else it is my personal opinion.

If you want to ascribe powers to his methods which he does not claim, then whose fault is that.


P.S. my gf was about to wash the bed sheets and I said, "they won't dry because it is cloudy today". Most people are not engineers.

[sidhujag]

will let this one slide noone is perfect

You are talking about yourself, because you are the one who tried to ascribe to Armstrong predictions which he has never asserted as predictions. You are trying to build a strawman in order spread FUD about him and discredit him.

He provides some short-term trading models, but these are not predictions. They are probablistic models that can guide savvy traders into winning more frequently than losing. But they were never advertised to be iron-clad predictions in stone.

How many times has Armstrong written:

• The short-term is inherently more noisy than the long-term.
• PRICE and TIME projections are independent.
• I state when the computer is talking, else it is my personal opinion.

If you want to ascribe powers to his methods which he does not claim, then whose fault is that.


P.S. my gf was about to wash the bed sheets and I said, "they won't dry because it is cloudy today". Most people are not engineers.

He should just stop analyzing noise like i said.. He ends up wrong on them anyway. Im not fudding him ive been telling people about him... Atleast his macro analysis. You have no clue. Im still interested in what he has to write.

Anyways i will ignore his short term posts. Thanks.

[trollercoaster]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ-QX8LuKHA

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/26072

[TPTB_need_war]

He should just stop analyzing noise like i said.. He ends up wrong on them anyway. Im not fudding him ive been telling people about him... Atleast his macro analysis. You have no clue. Im still interested in what he has to write.

Anyways i will ignore his short term posts. Thanks.

Are you a savvy trader who has traded based on a complete and full subscription to his services thus recording your probability of gains versus losses of a sufficient sample w.r.t. Nyquist limit, or some guy who glanced at a few blog posts and tries to extrapolate in complete defiance of comprehension of the implications of the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling theorem which governs the scientific method.

That is not even a question.

And how much are you betting Bitcoin won't go below $150?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliasing

In signal processing and related disciplines, aliasing is an effect that causes different signals to become indistinguishable (or aliases of one another) when sampled. It also refers to the distortion or artifact that results when the signal reconstructed from samples is different from the original continuous signal.

[sidhujag]

He should just stop analyzing noise like i said.. He ends up wrong on them anyway. Im not fudding him ive been telling people about him... Atleast his macro analysis. You have no clue. Im still interested in what he has to write.

Anyways i will ignore his short term posts. Thanks.

Are you a savvy trader who has traded based on a complete and full subscription to his services thus recording your probability of gains versus losses of a sufficient sample w.r.t. Nyquist limit, or some guy who glanced at a few blog posts and tries to extrapolate in complete defiance of comprehension of the implications of the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling theorem which governs the scientific method.

That is not even a question.

And how much are you betting Bitcoin won't go below $150?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliasing

In signal processing and related disciplines, aliasing is an effect that causes different signals to become indistinguishable (or aliases of one another) when sampled. It also refers to the distortion or artifact that results when the signal reconstructed from samples is different from the original continuous signal.

2 of 2 so far from when I first started to read his posts.. could be aliasing could be small sample size or could be just dumb luck! Anyways long term is where I am proactively taking steps rather than just a casual reader.

[trollercoaster]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37732

Let's see what happens from here, now shit is starting to get real.

Did World War III Start on the Precise Day of the ECM?

Russia began bombing CIA trained rebels in Syria precisely on the day of the turn in the Economic Confidence Model. This bombing has continued as CNN pointed out. Now, hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to also join a major ground offensive in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Clearly, the civil war in Syria is now escalating and we will see this as a proxy war at first directly between US and Russia with China supporting the Russian side in this game. This conflict is turning ever more regional and global in scope drawing in the world powers because the US war machine think this is just a game.

Russian warplanes have been targeting rebels trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency exposing US policy placing Moscow and Washington on opposing sides in a Middle East conflict for the first time since the Cold War. This should be a great concern because whatever has been the focus on the precise day of the ECM is what becomes the important event. As the economy in Russia turns down, the government needs a distraction and this is it. We will see the same trend emerge in the USA when the economy turns down for war is necessary to distract the people from the non-establishment candidates for 2016 and the social defaults as well as the need to raise taxes for war.

[TPTB_need_war]

This should be a great concern because whatever has been the focus on the precise day of the ECM is what becomes the important event.

trollercoaster, let's make sure we highlight the most important sentence w.r.t. to his ECM model and what it predicts.

2 of 2 so far from when I first started to read his posts.. could be aliasing could be small sample size or could be just dumb luck! Anyways long term is where I am proactively taking steps rather than just a casual reader.

Absolutely false. Did he give a deadline for his price objective to be achieved. How many times have I told you that PRICE and TIME are independent in his model. I feel like I am talking to the deaf, dumb, and blind.

[sidhujag]

This should be a great concern because whatever has been the focus on the precise day of the ECM is what becomes the important event.

trollercoaster, let's make sure we highlight the most important sentence w.r.t. to his ECM model and what it predicts.

2 of 2 so far from when I first started to read his posts.. could be aliasing could be small sample size or could be just dumb luck! Anyways long term is where I am proactively taking steps rather than just a casual reader.

Absolutely false. Did he give a deadline for his price objective to be achieved. How many times have I told you that PRICE and TIME are independent in his model. I feel like I am talking to the deaf, dumb, and blind.

Yup he did actually

[macsga]

Concerning the above post, I have to say once more that M.A. still tries to figure out what the significant parameter is, concerning his ECM closing cycle prediction. As with most events, our recent view of the globalized economy only gives a glimpse of the things to come. To put it another way, we lack of a vantage point to observe what's truly at stake here.

This is common for every human being living on this planet. We only get to understand what happened by reviewing the situation after the fact. Because we lack of information. That's why I give props to Martin Armstrong for posting a bold prediction about a specific date. He risked being humiliated by the non-believers and contrarians. And this comes from a person who is not yet convinced from his prediction algorithm. This was a bold move. And I will wait and see how this evolves.

A piece of advice: Don't try to prove him false just yet...

[mskryxz]

I've been following Martin Armstrong recently and I think he's on point so far with 2015.75. It's not exactly a certain day that something will happen but rather we are now in a period of downturn for the next few years.

[trollercoaster]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/19052

[TPTB_need_war]

As further circumstantial evidence that the Russian oligarchs are pulling the strings in Russia and are working together with the Western and Chinese oligarchs, what is the actual result of their war games in the Middle East.

Obviously their goal is to destabilize the Middle East and cause the oil to not flow out there any more. Even Trump is advocating destroying the oil fields.

Why? Ostensibly because as always they want an artificial monopoly and to be able to keep the price of oil from plummeting in the face of advancing technology which is driving the price inexorably lower, as I had explained about the inexorable trend of commodities some years ago:

 

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.

If the author is right and I think he is we are all in the midst of a tragedy of epic proportions.  It is sad unstoppable and will devastate the lives of much of humanity.

...

From The Rise of Knowledge, I quote myself:

Since recorded history began, the knowledge production share of the economy is inexorably increasing, which is why the cost (i.e. relative value) of hard resources has inexorably declined over the centuries (see the chart). Iron was a precious metal 323 B.C..

So apparently 2015.75 marks the new phase of the global economy where the debts have reached the Minsky Moment and the powers-that-be are ready to ramp up war to maintain their monopolies and control.

This has happened over and over throughout history and apparently it follows a cyclical period captured by Armstrong's pattern matching computer.

Note this will also destabilize Europe as a side-effect, i.e. the new proxy war is being fought in Europe and the Middle East. They don't dare fight it in the USA, because there are several million gun owners ready to give their life. Military activities in Europe will be as easy as a warm knife through butter.

Note it is ironic that Armstrong is blind to this interpretation because apparently his data and models do not attempt  to correlate the deception of the powers-that-be. His interpretation is that such synergy occurs not by plan or common interest, but because of dumb luck or that the powers-that-be are too stupid to understand how they destroy the global economy. I prefer the interpretation that these masters are much more astute than that, and know damn well what they are doing.

[trollercoaster]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/11307


Socialism & Islamic Radicalism Are The Same Theory

The whole idea of “socialism” is based upon the same theory that led to the overthrow of the Shah and the birth of Islamic Radicalism in 1979. What is the connection? Both hold that the private sector cannot be trusted and that the state should manage the economy. In Iran, it became the religious clerics that should lead the government to create social justice confiscating the assets of the rich and nationalizing all resources.

In the West, government also maintains it should control the economy, intervene, manipulate, and lie to the public to eliminate the Business Cycle for the good of the people.  They advocate the same theory of confiscating the assets of the rich under the pretense of taxation and are now hunting down everyone they can while making it a virtual crime for others not to spy on their citizens and report what they have outside their economy.

Both forms of government are fascist in nature much like Hitler who tried to pretend you still own your property unlike Communism, but the state will tell you what to do with it. Both Islamic Radicalism and Socialism distrust the free markets and both were determined to seek “social justice” by the state taking control of the economy.

The collapse of Socialism in the West will take unfortunately until 2061 to fully complete while its destruction will be 90% complete by 2032. Even with the fall of Paganism and the rise of Christianity under Constantine I The Great, his sole reign began in 324AD with the fall of Licinius I (308-324AD). It was precisely 37 years later when Julian II the Apostate (361-364AD) attempted to restore Paganism cyclically right on schedule.

The peak in Marxism took place in 1989 when Communism began to fall. This was phase I. and that then led to the start of phase II,  17.2 years later beginning in 2007 – yes the extreme on bailing out New York. The crisis in 2008 was also 31.4 years from the start of the Islamic Revolution. Everything always links together.

The Iranian Islamic Revolution began in 1977 with the first protests coming in with the bottom of the Economic Confidence Model 1977.05 at that time. By the top of that model, the Revolution was complete starting in 1979. It took 2.15 years. So change does come faster than most suspect.  The first setback came 17.2 years later with the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996. The first major crisis in this movement will come in 2016 where we may see a major political crisis involving Iran.

So 2016 is also shaping up to be geopolitical as the war cycle turns up in 2014. Everything is a set of dominoes. One leads to the next with nothing ever as a singleton. Each becomes a cause that creates the next reaction. In this manner, history becomes the guide to the future for indeed Machiavelli was correct – history repeats because the passions of man never change. It matters not the form of government. They all act the same way – they only are interested in furthering their own survival. They are entities and will act like a cornered animal always and without exception.

[OROBTC]

...

trollerc & TPTB

Nice pieces above, thanks for sharing.

Armstrong is full of great insight in both of the above, yet I had never even noted that Islamic Radicalism and Socialism are almost identical (differing only in cultural details).

The Powers That Be ("the bad ones") have an awful agenda.  Here is a treat from Jim Quinn's uber-bearish site that is interesting.  Read the comments too!  Most enlightening!

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/10/03/we-are-nothing-but-cattle-in-an-industrial-processing-facility/

Stephanie Relf has an unusual link maybe 1/3rd the way down in the Comments.  In case anyone is short of time, here is one short piece of advice:

DO NOT BOARD THE SHIPS!



(Swerving into weirdness on a Sunday...)

[trollercoaster]

well if they look like this, I'm probably gonna board the spaceship..