Martin Armstrong Discussion

[tabnloz]

I think the ECM predicts that a turning point will occur and the international capital flow points to a sector. MA explains this using the Reagan white house in the 80's with the rising interest rates / $$ devaluation leading to the 87 Black Friday. This morphed into the next ECM turning point in Japan, where dollars flowed back to Japan in the post 87 crash period, bubble-topping up to the ECM 89 point. Was similar in 97/98 when Armstrong pointed to Russia. Why Russia? Because he noticed there was an inflow of 100bn but an outflow of 150-200bn, indicating something was amiss.

So, I am guessing that MA provided some interpretation here from the capital flow clues (or perhaps "spoke for the algo").

I might be understanding that wrong. Happy to be corrected. But, like TPTB says, the big bang needs price & time to converge as only then do you have the 'unholy trinity' in play. At the moment, the war cycle seems to be correlating (as quoted below) too which is not a good sign.



w.r.t Syria, from my readings there are a number of factors in play.

It is obviously a proxy battleground between US & Russia. It is foothold in the ME for Russia and a Syria controlled by Assad maintains Russian natural gas monopoly into Europe. The US & Saudi's etc would love to push a pipeline through Syria into Turkey in order to fuel Europe, taking away their Russian dependency. Notice the other area of US / Russian contention is Ukraine which is eastern gas route into Europe. I'm aware of TPTB's theory that the oligarch are all in cahoots. I don't write it off, but I think the US tried to sanction Russia and by extension the assets of the oligarchs as a way to prompt them to overthrow Putin. It didn't work that way as the Russian bear thinks a different way, seeing it as the US again trying to f*ck with the Russians, giving Putin a boost not making his grip on power looser.

The Syrian conflict was a tinderbox due to the Arab Spring. Fuelled by covert actions from both sides, it erupted and further evolved into a proxy war within Middle Eastern nations & religions. Iran & Hezbollah support opposing sides in Syria despite them being allied. Syria used to be on of the ways for Iran to supply Hezbollah with weaponry to fight Israel. Now, the Sunni / Shiite divide is a major factor.

Then you have the war between US, Russia, Syrian rebels and ISIS. The US funds the Rebels and says the Russians are bombing the US backed groups instead of ISIS. Russia says US actions in the ME have created this whole mess. ISIS was at least partly funded by the US to fight Al-Qaeda in Iraq. This ploy backfired. Housing many militants together in the same prisons in Iraq led to the rise of Al-Baghdadi, and many of the tribal groups funded to fight Al-Qaeda in Iraq turned around and began fighting the US, eventually joining forces with the both the released militants and some of the hundreds of thousands of former Baathists made unemployed by the US. Al-Baghdadi used the experienced former Iraqi army guys, promoted the symbolism of Guantanamo and Abu Graib and combined it with slickly produced brutality to create a global movement.

[macsga]

Maybe (if Gold and BTC are related) this will give us a hint:

If you just run a correlation of inflation to gold you will see that gold does not respond simply to changes in money supply. You can say I am wrong all you like. But the numbers are the numbers. Gold has not yet exceeded the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. Cars I bought back then are more than 300% today. Gold would have to be about $2700 to match that today compared to a German car. The Dow was 1000 in 1980 but it reached the 18500 area and gold would have had to rally to  $16,000 to match that. So explain that one. Why fight the trend? It makes no sense. Is this about making a good trade, or trying to prove some theory is correct?



http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37672

[suda123]

...

trollerc & TPTB

Nice pieces above, thanks for sharing.

Armstrong is full of great insight in both of the above, yet I had never even noted that Islamic Radicalism and Socialism are almost identical (differing only in cultural details).

The Powers That Be ("the bad ones") have an awful agenda.  Here is a treat from Jim Quinn's uber-bearish site that is interesting.  Read the comments too!  Most enlightening!

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/10/03/we-are-nothing-but-cattle-in-an-industrial-processing-facility/

Stephanie Relf has an unusual link maybe 1/3rd the way down in the Comments.  In case anyone is short of time, here is one short piece of advice:

DO NOT BOARD THE SHIPS!



(Swerving into weirdness on a Sunday...)

my god what the hell man

[r0ach]

2015.75

Are we dead yet

[bitcodo]

international capital flow, oil price, war in Yemen,..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/qatar-plans-35-billion-of-u-s-investments-with-new-york-office
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/saudi-arabia-has-withdrawn-billions-from-markets-estimates-show

[THX 1138]

More evidence of increasing loss of trust in government:

http://www.thenational.scot/world/moldova-thousands-demand-new-government-after-1bn-bank-swindle.8340?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1444025044

[macsga]

More evidence of increasing loss of trust in government:

http://www.thenational.scot/world/moldova-thousands-demand-new-government-after-1bn-bank-swindle.8340?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1444025044

Greece, Moldavia, Italy, Spain... who's next to tolerate the bankster's & politicians constant theft? These guys are completely relentless. They still think that they can steal all they want and nobody says a thing... 'cause capitalism. We're in the midst of the 2nd recapitalization of our banks in Greece. The funds required are estimated up to 25bn euros. Several big EU banks have "offered" the money towards gaining the control of the Greek biggest banks.

I remind you that the separation of "bad-banks" has already been done and it's more than obvious that when the sharks get their teeth on them, whoever owes even one euro to the "bad bank" they will lose their home/shop/company. This is expected in November. If this comes along, expect hell break loose. Most possibly the next thing to happen will be a nice "haircut" of credit holders.

Greece has got a glimpse of what's coming last summer with capital controls. The banks would not let you open even the deposit boxes of yours! In the meantime 1000 BTC ATMs have been already en route to Greece. Interesting times...

[Afrikoin]

Is everyone still betting against my < $150 prediction for the final capitulation low. It is lonely being correct all the time.    (really I know I am not and I don't try to call every short-term move, but a liquidity contagion always takes down gold and small caps, ALWAYS  ... and remember the smaller the market cap, the more extreme the moves especially now that Bitcoin can be easily shorted)

Seriously though, gold and Bitcoin haven't capitulated yet, because there are still guys like you saying it can't. Once all of you are humbled, then the bottom will be in, I'll be buying with both fists (assuming I still have fists that move and any money which is also dubious) and many of you will have become dismayed and hesitant.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. The contagion isn't even underway yet. Just wait grasshoppers for your lesson.

i'm with you on the < $150. You are not alone

[tabnloz]

Piling in to the short end

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-05/treasury-sells-3-month-bills-0-yield-first-time-ever

[TPTB_need_war]

2015.75

Are we dead yet

Your Western hubris will be your downfall.

The collapse of Socialism in the West will take unfortunately until 2061 to fully complete while its destruction will be 90% complete by 2032.

..

So 2016 is also shaping up to be geopolitical as the war cycle turned up in 2014. Everything is a set of dominoes.

The final peak in bonds coming precisely as Armstrong said:

Piling in to the short end

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-05/treasury-sells-3-month-bills-0-yield-first-time-ever

The dominoes are underway.

[OROBTC]

...

trollerc & TPTB

Nice pieces above, thanks for sharing.

Armstrong is full of great insight in both of the above, yet I had never even noted that Islamic Radicalism and Socialism are almost identical (differing only in cultural details).

The Powers That Be ("the bad ones") have an awful agenda.  Here is a treat from Jim Quinn's uber-bearish site that is interesting.  Read the comments too!  Most enlightening!

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/10/03/we-are-nothing-but-cattle-in-an-industrial-processing-facility/

Stephanie Relf has an unusual link maybe 1/3rd the way down in the Comments.  In case anyone is short of time, here is one short piece of advice:

DO NOT BOARD THE SHIPS!


(Swerving into weirdness on a Sunday...)

my god what the hell man

Check your messages, suda123!

Not everything I read is related to BTC, gold, finance, Peru, rolling bearings, etc.

Stephanie Relf is waaaayyy out there.  Hope you enjoyed it!  

trollercoaster did, LOL!

[suda123]

...

trollerc & TPTB

Nice pieces above, thanks for sharing.

Armstrong is full of great insight in both of the above, yet I had never even noted that Islamic Radicalism and Socialism are almost identical (differing only in cultural details).

The Powers That Be ("the bad ones") have an awful agenda.  Here is a treat from Jim Quinn's uber-bearish site that is interesting.  Read the comments too!  Most enlightening!

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/10/03/we-are-nothing-but-cattle-in-an-industrial-processing-facility/

Stephanie Relf has an unusual link maybe 1/3rd the way down in the Comments.  In case anyone is short of time, here is one short piece of advice:

DO NOT BOARD THE SHIPS!


(Swerving into weirdness on a Sunday...)

My main problem is that I stepped out of the conspiracy scene for 2 years, the problem I have is I use the double think method which is I just read everything lies,truth,halftruth etc. It's coming together apparently.

This is martin armstrong related ironically, because I read he uses in his TA laptop for predicting things the I think golden number? or Pi in sacred geometry. I guess martin is one of the people that decoded algorithme and figured it out.
my god what the hell man

Check your messages, suda123!

Not everything I read is related to BTC, gold, finance, Peru, rolling bearings, etc.

Stephanie Relf is waaaayyy out there.  Hope you enjoyed it!  

trollercoaster did, LOL!

[Poppy]

...

Martin Armstrong is a financial, well, forecaster might be the right term, who has written extensively on historical patterns of economics.

He has a checkered past (I know that he went to jail for contempt of court, but what I have read it seems that was an injustice), but there is no doubt that he has introduced new concepts for us to read and analyze.  While in jail, he produced a number of interesting papers looking at asset prices through history, including from ANCIENT history.  He is one of the few who looks at cyclicality (time patterns) as well as a MACRO view of the markets (that is, he does not look at the price of gold alone, he looks at everything else too -- with a supercomputer).

He is now out of jail and has set-up shop as a macro-consulting company.  On most days (including today, Saturday) he publishes a few easy-to-digest items looking at various issues of the day.  His blog:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

What finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives".  It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401

*   *   *

I have been in various threads here at the forum where Armstrong's material has come up.

I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).

Even though Martin A. Armstrong has a dishonorable past, his death is still a big loss. He became a millionaire at the age of 15 and I think that that is exceptional.

[batou]

Even though Martin A. Armstrong has a dishonorable past, his death is still a big loss. He became a millionaire at the age of 15 and I think that that is exceptional.

He's not dead?

[macsga]

Even though Martin A. Armstrong has a dishonorable past, his death is still a big loss. He became a millionaire at the age of 15 and I think that that is exceptional.

Eh? Where did that come from? He's not dead! He was here in Greece a week ago. Do you mean ANOTHER M. A. Armstrong? On other news his latest post has to do with something that BBC mentioned about a week ago. It has to do with the seizure of private buildings in order to give them to the migrants.

[...]
So has Europe imported a civil war? Clearly, the Western powers do not understand their history and the attempt to topple the Syrian government will lead to total chaos. This is by no means in the best interests of national security for Europe or the United States. This is a braindead war game with very serious consequences for it is not over territory, it involves religion with no borders..


http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37722

[tabnloz]

More on the short end sales

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/06/panic-buying-of-super-liquid-treasuries-3-month-t-bills-zero-yield/

[Quinn]

...

Martin Armstrong is a financial, well, forecaster might be the right term, who has written extensively on historical patterns of economics.

He has a checkered past (I know that he went to jail for contempt of court, but what I have read it seems that was an injustice), but there is no doubt that he has introduced new concepts for us to read and analyze.  While in jail, he produced a number of interesting papers looking at asset prices through history, including from ANCIENT history.  He is one of the few who looks at cyclicality (time patterns) as well as a MACRO view of the markets (that is, he does not look at the price of gold alone, he looks at everything else too -- with a supercomputer).

He is now out of jail and has set-up shop as a macro-consulting company.  On most days (including today, Saturday) he publishes a few easy-to-digest items looking at various issues of the day.  His blog:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

What finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives".  It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401

*   *   *

I have been in various threads here at the forum where Armstrong's material has come up.

I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).

Martin A. Armstrong's contribution to economics and his economic predictions made him a person of great influence.  However, his criminal conviction somewhat overshadowed his achievements.

[tabnloz]

Link to article regarding outflows from emerging markets.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/emerging-market-etf-outflows-accelerate-as-losses-mount/

================================================================
             Flow Week      Flow %    Equity      Bond      FX
Region      End Oct. 2      Change     Flow       Flow    Change
================================================================
Total         -566.1        116.0%    -483.5     -82.5      n/a
Taiwan         -93.3      -368.89%     -93.3       0.0     0.15%
Brazil         -68.7      -636.78%     -64.1      -4.6     1.08%
South Africa   -57.9      -276.28%     -54.4      -3.5     1.34%
China/HK       -52.6      -620.15%     -48.0      -4.6     0.27%
Chile          -45.4      -221.82%     -44.0      -1.3     1.77%
Mexico         -35.3        50.29%     -31.6      -3.7     1.27%
South Korea    -27.9      -315.48%     -25.2      -2.6     1.19%
India          -25.4        -2.24%     -25.3      -0.2     0.98%
Indonesia      -21.7       -20.69%     -18.9      -2.8     0.32%
Malaysia       -19.7      -120.01%     -16.4      -3.4    -0.65%
Turkey         -19.5       -33.58%     -16.5      -2.9     1.86%
Thailand       -15.4       -85.80%     -14.5      -0.9    -0.69%
Poland         -12.5      -260.74%      -7.1      -5.4    -0.39%
Philippines    -10.1        16.83%      -6.8      -3.3     0.07%
Singapore      -10.0       -21.55%      -9.9      -0.1    -0.52%
Peru            -6.1          n/a       -3.1      -2.9    -0.02%
Colombia        -5.4      -363.17%      -2.1      -3.4     1.80%
U.A.E.          -2.9      -100.53%      -3.7       0.8    -0.01%
Argentina       -2.0       -24.47%      -1.2      -0.8    -0.32%
Vietnam         -1.7      -553.81%      -1.6      -0.1     0.05%
Qatar           -1.4      -164.57%      -1.0      -0.4     0.01%
Egypt           -1.4       -96.77%      -1.1      -0.3     0.01%
Nigeria         -1.4      -262.46%      -1.4       0.0     0.27%
Russia          14.0       202.97%      16.7      -2.7    -1.47%
================================================================

[bitcodo]

I know he talks about confidence, but for me (as i don't know much about all this global shit) the important thing (for war and outflows) is oil price (which is low for numerous factors).

Among the favorite asset managers of Middle Eastern countries are BlackRock and Franklin Templeton (BEN). Both firms declined to break out fund flows from Saudi Arabia to CNNMoney.

However, BlackRock admitted it had suffered $24 billion of net outflows from the region that includes Europe, the Middle East and Africa during the second quarter. That's compared to inflows of $18 billion during the first quarter.

A lot of that money was being yanked due to "cash need driven by rainy-day issues," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told analysts in July. He didn't name any countries in the region, but added, "It's raining in some of the commodity-based economies."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/30/investing/saudi-arabia-oil-cash-crunch/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11911194/Russia-bombing-in-Syria-escalates-oil-price-war-with-Saudi.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-05/norway-seen-plundering-its-wealth-fund-to-ward-off-oil-risks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-07/abu-dhabi-said-to-explore-asset-sales-as-oil-slump-erodes-income

edit: Sovereign Wealth Funds http://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund-rankings/

[valiz]

2015.75

Are we dead yet

Your Western hubris will be your downfall.

The collapse of Socialism in the West will take unfortunately until 2061 to fully complete while its destruction will be 90% complete by 2032.

..

So 2016 is also shaping up to be geopolitical as the war cycle turned up in 2014. Everything is a set of dominoes.

The final peak in bonds coming precisely as Armstrong said:

Piling in to the short end

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-05/treasury-sells-3-month-bills-0-yield-first-time-ever

The dominoes are underway.

Hmm, what? Not much happening. Just shut up and BTFD! 

Prepping is a waste. Get over it, there is no crisis coming. 

And quit reading that funny RThedge blog