Martin Armstrong Discussion

[pinky]

Here are MA writings from the past for anyone who have doubts. You can compare his statements with historical charts: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/

[sidhujag]

Someome should annotate a google chart of djia with mas major predictions and see how they lineup with turning points or lack thereof

[vokain]

What do y'all think would happen if Socrates was open sourced?

[OROBTC]

What do y'all think would happen if Socrates was open sourced?

OK, I'll take a crack at that, but only because you're a good guy... 

1)  Armstrong would make far less money, and have no control over his Socrates.

and

2)  If found to be useful in predicting markets, China/Russia/Japan/IBM (etc.) would build HUGE supercomputer systems...

If his group does have something exciting, then I think he would fight to the death to keep Socrates (etc.) under his control.

[TPTB_need_war]

What do y'all think would happen if Socrates was open sourced?

Vested interests of people would never allow all people to avail of what the model advises to do at any given juncture, so if eveyone forsaked their vested interests then the model would control the world, but the model doesn't tell individuals how to produce and create new technology for example so it is impossible for all people to vest in the model.

I wrote upthread that the model can't be omniscient.

[TPTB_need_war]

What do y'all think would happen if Socrates was open sourced?

Hey you guys are winning that case against CypherDorc but apparently he will only end up repaying BTC and not the dollar value (which should be very positive news for Bitcoin):

http://www.coindesk.com/bankrupt-bitcoin-mining-firm-trustee-seeks-return-of-funds-from-former-promoter/

[TPTB_need_war]

Dead-cat bounce for gold and decline in March to May for final capitulation low seems to be following MA's prediction:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-6/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/opening-pivot-points-for-tomorrow/

Note MA is allowing for the possibility that the low in gold could be pushed into 2017, but so far this scenario has not been elected yet:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-rally-4/

[TPTB_need_war]

MA has rebuffed sloanf using the explanation that I gave upthread:

QUESTION:

Dear Marty,

When talking about negative interest rates and a shift of cash from banks to the stock market from 2017, would that not mean that cash may also shift to property and other assets? Yet I thought that we have seen the high in the property market already?

Thanks for your useful insights as ever

SP



ANSWER: Real estate has peaked in REAL TERMS. The sub-prime market that made the high in 2007 was not exceeded. The secondary rally into 2015 was the high-end, so we now have the IRS targeting NYC and Miami in their hunt for money.

The high-end will now decline. The average home will make the transition, but will not be making new highs. In real terms, the high is in. Real estate varies tremendously based upon location. This is due to capital inflows that drive certain markets like Vancouver and Toronto in Canada or New York and Miami in the States. Washington, D.C., held up in 2007-2009 because politicians did not want to lose their jobs. Taxes will also prevent real estate from reaching new highs in “real terms.”

In nominal terms, some areas will make the transition to new currencies; the movable assets will appreciate the most. Those are the assets that you do not have make annual payments on to hold them annually.

We also have a collapse in long-term interest rates to the point that banks do not want to write 30-year mortgages anymore. As that long-term view collapses, so does the leverage. That will cause housing to decline in “real terms.”

Note also the hint above that capital may rush into movable assets, so that could possibly include crypto currency instead of just gold and rare collectables.

In another blog post today, MA explains how fucked up 2017 - 2020 will be:

We are on the precipice of what can  only be described as rising systemic risk for all markets. The Fed is now hinting that banks should prepare for NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES and this insanity of following the crowd if undermining the entire world economy. The increasingly unstable footing that we find ourselves is reflected in widening credit spreads demonstrating that CONFIDENCE is indeed collapsing. Even Goldman Sachs closed out its long-USD trade against a basket of Euro and Japanese yen with a potential loss of around 5% which is being bantered about on the street. This early 2016 destabilization is stopping out short gold positions but not replacing them with any buying conviction while the Euro trade of long Italian 5 year against short German 5 year has also turned into a blood-bath.

Global economic growth has been anemic at best but it is clearing turning down since 2015.75. This new world order of NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES is so insane and focused solely on trying to stimulate borrowing, it is undermining pensions and the elderly creating an economic storm of the century on the horizon, which is far worse that the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even the Japanese 10 Year bond has gone NEGATIVE demonstrating the total collapse in CONFIDENCE. Why you ask?  Because this time the defaults engulf all governments and at all levels. Like a drunk who just won the lottery, all is always lost in just a matter of time.

Bankers in German and Italian banking are looking pale in the face. The question is will the ECB bailout Deutsche Bank or let it fall? They will probably blink and this will be part bail-out/bail-in. They have no way out of this mess created by the Euro. We are looking at a European credit crunch beginning in the periphery and spreading to the core just as we are looking at emerging market debt imploding and spreading to the rest of the world. The Fed now sees the external threat as systemic and is considering abandoning domestic policy objectives for international policy objectives precisely as they did in 1927 which created a major crisis.

Underlined above, MA is explaining the reason the potential low for gold being moved forward and/or the renewed USD and US stock market PHASE TRANSITION being delayed to 2017.

Note this "mid-benchmark" rally for Gold was a scenario in MA's paid gold reports:

Gold on Track for the Mid-Benchmark Rally

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended the Berlin Conference and I must say, you told us to expect a move between the Benchmarks in gold, and that the first quarter looked to be a countertrend move.

The forecast array picked February 8th for a turning point. So far so good.

Caution is clearly necessary. the Daily Bearish is now 1124 so it is still quite away. With two Directional Changes back to back, and this week was the Panic Cycle, we still have to be careful here for further upside remains possible only with a daily closing above the 1208 level, which would need the Euro to rise, dollar to fall, and the share Dow to make new lows. Pressing everything to the extreme get everyone off-side and separates the fools quickly from their money. There is NOTHING to trade on without a reversal matched with time. Selling the high with a stop above 1209 in a quick play, but you also have to be very nimble.

We are not facing a major change in trend in all these markets. This is the push to create that FALSE MOVE before everything goes completely nuts. So keep the power-dry. Time is required  before taking action. In gold, we need to see February close above $1208 to take this serious. But that in isolation would not unfold. Plus, the targets for the rally have been here in mid February with high volatility building thereafter. With the Fed now considering NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, this is in itself warning that the deflation is expanding.

Deutsche(Douche-Bag)Bank is making new lows if viewed in international currency (not domestic which is the error sloanf made on real estate):

[sloanf]

Idiocy from tptb is in the Phase transition mode. He must have gone broke long time ago following MA predictions, otherwise he would not be sitting here copy-pasting every single bs from MA.
First, it was gold over 3500 by 2015\2016, then gold below 1000 (907\850\etc) by 2015.75, then low in gold at 850 in Q1’16. All those predictions have failed of course. And now as gold is on the rise (contrary to what MA predicted), MA’s shifting low in gold to 2017-2020. But at the same time:
1.   MA claims that he was spot on and predicted the recent rise
2.   Moronic tptb regardless of all facts still claims that MA is always right.

This poor brainwashed loser is still unable to recognize the obvious pattern of all MA’s predictions I mentioned here

He likes to constantly bs people about how everything is connected, all asset prices are interlinked, etc. If that’s the case, then you can’t simply miss such a big move in oil price. Especially if you do have a computer model (as he claims) that tracks everything for you. Yet he missed it completely. He never warned about upcoming collapse. If fact, he predicted the opposite, right at the YTD peak http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/22328 (“It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models”). Wars are all over the place yet oil went down sharply. Even when the price declined substantially, he kept ignoring it. He only start mentioning oil when it came to 70. And how about Swiss Franc? This http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25888 should end with the myth that he predicted the CHF-peg break.

Finally, let me add to the summary I have made in the previous post about his cheats and tricks. Throughout all these years he uses the same pattern of predictions:
1.   Pick an asset
2.   Multiply its price by 8-10
3.   Pick a date which is next or second-next in his deeply flawed 3.14 model

Examples abound: Oil $10 to 100 (10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2007.15, the Dow 3.5K to 35K (10 times) by next 3.14 date 2015.75, gold 500 or 1200 to 5000 or 12000 (by 10 times) by the next 3.14 date 2015.75, etc. If it does not work, he just shifts the date (which he did twice already with the Dow) or flip flops (like he did with gold or with oil <example above>). Simple.

So it is clear that there is no computer model, it’s all just his opinions and wild guesses. And to look more credible and differentiate himself from other so called gurus to justify outrageous prices he charges for bs dvds, reports, subscriptions, conferences, etc, he brings up all that bs about history of Rome and physics.

In addition to that, whatever trend is in motion MA simply extends it. If it stops working, he simply flip flops (just like with gold or oil) or shifts date (like with the Dow, gold, the dollar, the US debt, etc.), and almost always bs people with scenarios that cover all possible outcomes.

Case in point, his most recent prediction on the Dow:
1.   We are going to have a Phase transition
2.   A sling-shot move
3.   The Dow is flat and churning into 2017

In other words, the Dow will either rise, fall, or stay more or less the same. And then MA feeds bs further by posting made-up emails. I described the pattern here

Now, let me expand on his made-up letters since you broght it up and some others mentioned them elsewhere http://www.informedtrades.com/showthread.php?t=1341538&page=7. All those letters could be broken down into three main categories:

1.   Dear MA. Thank you for your existence. Our whole family has been reading your blog for years. It is so great that my 97-year-old grandma decided to learn how to read so as to be able to follow your blog. Occasionally on big family gatherings such as Thanksgiving or Christmas we even read your blog out loud (uncle Derek reads it because he has a strong voice and a better diction than our grandma). My children don’t go to school anymore because they have your blog. What else can you ask for in life, right? Thanks to your unique knowledge and extraordinary insight, we now know that politicians are not good as they claim during election campaigns and also that something bad is going on in Europe. It was really an eye-opener. Could you please elaborate on why grass is green and water is wet? Thank you.

2.   Your honor. I am so fortunate that I have stumbled upon your blog. I am a historian with a PhD but never have I read anything like what you put on your website. It is so clear to me that Will Durant and Eugen Weber are not in the same league with you because they probably copied some of their work from you. Even Herodotus would feel deeply ashamed of himself after reading the stuff you researched and kindly shared with us on your fascinating blog. Our academic community together with UNESCO should initiate the process of updating school programs around the globe with all your valuable insight and discoveries. A truly eye-opener. My son now actually can see things better after your blog (used to wear thick glasses). Would you please make some more dvds for Amazon and Netflix so everybody could benefit from your brilliant understanding of history? Thank you.

3.   Your majesty. Words can’t express how grateful I am for living in the same time with you. Your knowledge of economics and physics is so amazing that you should be awarded the Nobel prize for both. I am just one of millions of your loyal followers and has been attending your conferences since the Civil War. I remember you once said gold would go up and down. And it did! You also said that there would be wars in the world. And then they happened! The world best forecaster indeed! Now everybody steals your predictions and claims as their own all over the place. They are so dishonest. At your last conference there were tens of thousands of people and you could not place them all so you had to turn thousands away. Will you hold your next conference in a larger place say exhibition halls or convention centers to accommodate all participants? Thank you.

MA's answer regardless of the question asked almost always goes like this:

Thank you. It’s been a mystery to me. Some call it a miracle, some call me the greatest forecaster on the planet but I put it down simply to my unique ECM model. Gold went up precisely on time and according to the model. It’s not my opinion, it’s what computer says based on capital flows across the globe and the unique historic data that cost me hundreds of millions. Even the IMF does not have such database. The computer model works through 32000 variables and 72 metrics and so much else, it’s not humanly possible to produce forecasts like this. Even Microsoft and IBM clouds combined would not be able to process it. NASA confirms that they are not going to have such processing power before at least 2032, the next ECM turning point. It’s all because politicians are all corrupt, they can’t even run a bubble-gum machine. Back in the old days, the Roman empire collapsed precisely for the same reasons - they were all lawyers, not traders and programmers like myself. Governments are everywhere hunting cash and want to impose more taxes, bankers are sucking the blood of the economy, riots are everywhere just in line with our War cycle model. The Euro is about to crack because European leaders didn’t listen to me. Welcome to Big Bang.
Remember it was all rosy before when I consulted presidents and prime-ministers all over the world. Milton Friedman used to come to my conferences and sit quietly on the back row, Maggie Thatcher used to call me for my advice, Paul Volker wrote a book borrowing my ideas on cycles and so on. I am going to publish a report on gold soon and hold a conference next month where I will go in depth on all that and also on how to solve sovereign debt problem, find a cure for cancer, set peace in the Middle East, reduce inequality, eradicate poverty, and understand women. Sign-up early since places are limited.

And here your go, the most recent one https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-real-implications-of-forecasting-more-profound-than-you-think/  talking about the Nobel prize, “correct” predictions, etc. The key message of which is screaming loud: BUY my conferences, reports and subscriptions.

[TPTB_need_war]

[m4nki]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking who he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

[azzekouzeg]

There is a new feature in armstrongs repertoire =>The Opening Pivot

Does anybody knows if this purely for the NY opening or just the opening of the markets in general.
He writes on the 10th of feb " Our opening pivot point tomorrow in gold will be 1217.30 ''
Now we opened below that this morning during asian times, so I would presume gold is in a bearish posture for the day. OR is it only NY time that matters?

Anybody knows?

Thanks

[sidhujag]

There is a new feature in armstrongs repertoire =>The Opening Pivot

Does anybody knows if this purely for the NY opening or just the opening of the markets in general.
He writes on the 10th of feb " Our opening pivot point tomorrow in gold will be 1217.30 ''
Now we opened below that this morning during asian times, so I would presume gold is in a bearish posture for the day. OR is it only NY time that matters?

Anybody knows?

Thanks

Use gann square of 9 to find your pivots, you will be better off

[trollercoaster]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking who he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

MA is pessimistic of private money surviving long term, it usually appears during a crisis and withers away or ends up being taxed anyway, there's nothing new under the sun so the saying goes.

He doesn't believe bitcoin will be any different.

"The idea that Bitcoin can circumvent government currencies and taxes I just do not buy. I suspect these people are licking their chops to rush in. That is my only concern. You cannot withdraw $3,000 in cash without them freaking out. They will an underground economy exist? I seriously doubt it."

[altcoinUK]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking who he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

He says very little about Bitcoin, but he sees the matter from a pragmatic viewpoint: crypto currencies - that allow hiding the money from the tax man - will be stopped by the government. Government will collude with the Bitcoin foundation or just simply direct them to do it and the protocol will be modified to implement features to enable more efficiently track of the money (but even in its current form BTC is a god given gift for the tax man as by definition everything is in the blockchain and traceable.) The miners will cooperate too. In case the developers and miners don't comply - which is extremely unlikely - measures will be exposed on different levels such as ISP and OS (in the case of proprietary OS like Windows and iOs) to crack down on Bitcoin. (Of course all naive libertarian attempts like Dash and zerocash that try to implement privacy will be cracked down too).
Please note, there is no reason for government to intervene at this moment in time. Bitcoin is minuscule and insignificant terms of market capitalization and volume, used by very few users (the active 1 million users are lot less than a mediocre porn site has) so the government will step in when for some reason it will be actually popular, but at the time the government will act quickly and forcefully.

[m4nki]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking who he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

He says very little about Bitcoin, but he sees the matter from a pragmatic viewpoint: crypto currencies - that allow hiding the money from the tax man - will be stopped by the government. Government will collude with the Bitcoin foundation or just simply direct them to do it and the protocol will be modified to implement features to enable more efficiently track of the money (but even in its current form BTC is a god given gift for the tax man as by definition everything is in the blockchain and traceable.)

This is what I also am thinking: Governments would be pro Bitcoin because everything is being recorded in the blockchain, making money flows easily traceable. I think the government will put certain regulations in place (e.g. every citizen has to have 1 Bitcoin address that is known to the government to which his income has to be transfered) and Bitcoin still survives.

[m4nki]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking how he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

MA is pessimistic of private money surviving long term, it usually appears during a crisis and withers away or ends up being taxed anyway, there's nothing new under the sun so the saying goes.

He doesn't believe bitcoin will be any different.

"The idea that Bitcoin can circumvent government currencies and taxes I just do not buy. I suspect these people are licking their chops to rush in. That is my only concern. You cannot withdraw $3,000 in cash without them freaking out. They will an underground economy exist? I seriously doubt it."

Interesting quote, have not read it before, thanks! I think governments will try to regulate Bitcoin in a way so that they prevent an underground economy to a huge extent, but I do not see how they could "shut down" Bitcoin, such as shutting down the internet.

[TPTB_need_war]

I have great respect for Martin Armstrong's work.

However, when it comes to the topic of Bitcoin, he seem to be a little too pessimistic, saying the government can shut it down anytime it wants.

I wrote him an email asking who he would think the government could do this, but received no reply until today.

Anyone with more info?

He says very little about Bitcoin, but he sees the matter from a pragmatic viewpoint: crypto currencies - that allow hiding the money from the tax man - will be stopped by the government. Government will collude with the Bitcoin foundation or just simply direct them to do it and the protocol will be modified to implement features to enable more efficiently track of the money (but even in its current form BTC is a god given gift for the tax man as by definition everything is in the blockchain and traceable.) The miners will cooperate too. In case the developers and miners don't comply - which is extremely unlikely - measures will be exposed on different levels such as ISP and OS (in the case of proprietary OS like Windows and iOs) to crack down on Bitcoin. (Of course all naive libertarian attempts like Dash and zerocash that try to implement privacy will be cracked down too).
Please note, there is no reason for government to intervene at this moment in time. Bitcoin is minuscule and insignificant terms of market capitalization and volume, used by very few users (the active 1 million users are lot less than a mediocre porn site has) so the government will step in when for some reason it will be actually popular, but at the time the government will act quickly and forcefully.

MA is pessimistic of private money surviving long term, it usually appears during a crisis and withers away or ends up being taxed anyway, there's nothing new under the sun so the saying goes.

He doesn't believe bitcoin will be any different.

"The idea that Bitcoin can circumvent government currencies and taxes I just do not buy. I suspect these people are licking their chops to rush in. That is my only concern. You cannot withdraw $3,000 in cash without them freaking out. They will an underground economy exist? I seriously doubt it."

Agreed on your and trollercoaster's response. And btw, this is why I suggested to Zcash, they hedge their bets and also focus some of their efforts on the corporate applications of zk-snarks to privacy for public block chains with an optional viewkey for the government. This is absolutely needed by corporations if they are going to use block chain technology to interopt more efficiently. Zcash is sitting on a gold mine technology if they get some clarity into their strategy. I think perhaps they should have hired me. Any way, I am off on other project/work now.

Let me add to both of your points, that the global government is also taking form but not entirely organized yet. For example, the G20 has just recently pledged to share information and work together on tax cheating. It takes a while to get all these 100+ nations to cooperate, but realize the leverage the G20 has over international banking (e.g. they threatened to shut off the Philippines' OFW remittances if the Philippines didn't comply with the wished for the USA such as ending the bank secrecy law in the Philippines) and over the internet trunk lines (undersea) and other geopolitical leverage.

The government will be able to shut down Bitcoin for the reasons AltcoinUK has explained. Bitcoin is becoming centralized and controlled by a few people. For example, the Chinese mining cartel controls 67% of the hashrate and recently did a 51% attack on Bitcoin.

I have pretty much given up on the anarchistic, ideological aspect of crypto currency. I am focused on a smarter "anarchistic" ideology of making crypto currency popular and enabling netizens to express themselves more freely. Ultimately the battle with be political so I am better off to use my technological expertise to enable more popular freedoms in decentralized social networking than to focus on some impossible dream.

I have also recently shown that no decentralized crypto currency can ever exist. Sorry there are lots of uninformed soundbite-mastery "experts" who persistently say otherwise, but they are wrong.

[altcoinUK]

The next few (maximum 10) months will provide sceptics and followers with an answer about whether Armstrong is a gifted forecaster or an opportunist.

Most analysts, technicians and economists (who aren't CNBC shills so we can take their opinion somehow more seriously) pretty much agree that we are in a bear market. As a day trader I don't disagree with them and I am already loaded with shorts and put options. On the other hand Armstrong says the slingshot is still an option to slaughter the greedy crowd that get excited from the bear market and take us to new highs. (Partly for that reason I try not to catch the falling knife, I am trying to be conservative in profit taking and for example I closed my March DAX puts at 8750 today. Btw DAX 8750 is the October 2013 level, that's how amazingly in good shape our European economy is). I understand for Arsmtrong  the slingshot is an "if" scenario and it depends on many conditional variables, but still, he thinks it is a very possible scenario. While majority of analysts, technicians and economists in agreement with regards to the bear market. So we will see who is right and wrong.

As a side note, to be fair, the scepticism of the critics of Armstrong is supported by the human side of Armstrong. His human side what he often demonstrates in his blog, namely that the latest market directional change very much influences your opinion. When the market is seriously dipping then he start to talk about DJIA 13K and when there is a recovery the he start mentioning the slingshot move. All I am trying to say, he could be right about his cycle theory, but when it comes to day trading he is as much clueless as all of us are.

[TPTB_need_war]

As a side note, to be fair, the scepticism of the critics of Armstrong is supported by the human side of Armstrong. His human side what he often demonstrates in his blog, namely that the latest market directional change very much influences your opinion. When the market is seriously dipping then he start to talk about DJIA 13K and when there is a recovery the he start mentioning the slingshot move. All I am trying to say, he could be right about his cycle theory, but when it comes to day trading he is as much clueless as all of us are.

MA has always said the short-term is much more noisy than the long-term. And the predicting the long-term major trends is much easier than predicting the short-term. His trading models use extra dimensions of correlations to provide better odds, but you need to be a paid client so Socrates can provide specific advice to your portfolio. No serious day trader would use MA's blog to trade on. That sloanf would even suggest such just confirms that he is an amateur that has no clue about professional trading.