Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Risk Mgmt]

Gold report is out.

We should organize a group buy or something. Anyone here is interested ?

Have you guys done this before?

Risk Mgmt - pooling to spread the risk among the many

10-15 people ... Share the cost -  count me In

[darlidada]

After looking around, it seems there was already an ongoing project to  group buy it in the forum. bigtimespaghetti is organizing it. everyone interested in should send him a PM!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=65317

[trollercoaster]

MA watermarks his reports, just something to be aware of should the copy purchased by someone in the group "leak" it will be traced back to you.

[darlidada]

news from the ECB http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35774629

The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0% from 0.05% as part of a package of measures intended to boost the flagging eurozone economy.
The ECB will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.

how does it time with martin prediction?

[Alex-11]

how does it time with martin prediction?

good timing, I would say. It would help pushing the euro south and Martin predicted already years ago that on Monday next week the Euro would collapse or start to collapse. You should watch 1.0927 number for the closing of this week. When the Euro closes below that number, it would be bearish.

Update: Well, today - it looks like the opposite of a collapse    . At least one can say that something happend...
@dloghwak   I guess this one might be the final collapse. THere where several  major periods of decline in the last 7-8 Years.  The last one started in May 2014. This one might be the grand finale.

[dloghwak]

how does it time with martin prediction?

good timing, I would say. It would help pushing the euro south and Martin predicted already years ago that on Monday next week the Euro would collapse or start to collapse. You should watch 1.0927 number for the closing of this week. When the Euro closes below that number, it would be bearish.

If this is the start of the collapse, what would you call the EUR/USD decline that started in 2014?
Well, one could even argue that the collapse started in 2011, 2009 or 2008.
But most likely we will see nothing happen on monday and you guys will come up with a fancy explanation why armstrong got it still right.

[sidhujag]

how does it time with martin prediction?

good timing, I would say. It would help pushing the euro south and Martin predicted already years ago that on Monday next week the Euro would collapse or start to collapse. You should watch 1.0927 number for the closing of this week. When the Euro closes below that number, it would be bearish.

If this is the start of the collapse, what would you call the EUR/USD decline that started in 2014?
Well, one could even argue that the collapse started in 2011, 2009 or 2008.
But most likely we will see nothing happen on monday and you guys will come up with a fancy explanation why armstrong got it still right.

When greece happened forthe first time in 2009 or 2010 it was the start of the decline i was there watching the chart.

[TPTB_need_war]

Incorrect. They are highly correlated (if a smoothing filter is employed) since 2013. Gold had a rise recently and so did Bitcoin.

I found this chart:

Source:http://allcoinsnews.com/2016/01/29/tradebock-research-finds-that-bitcoin-gold-negative-correlation-has-intensified/


Yes there are periods where it does seem highly correlated, but that chart is actually showing us that most of last year was the opposite. Thoughts?

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

[vokain]

President Trump or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Donald
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-threat-of-change/

ALL ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN!!!

They’re just furious. Even if Trump fails to win, there will be more in the wings. He is inspiring a change and he doesn’t even understand how profound.

Though it's hard to see everything, I think Trump does understand. I don't think any of this is any accident
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

[TPTB_need_war]

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

Any chance you can post a link to a decent chart with filter?

The mathematical point I am making is that the correlation can be quite strong when the time axis of gold or BTC is shifted such that they align better. Just slide gold along the time axis, and you see the correlation is much stronger. This sliding variable is another dimension. Armstrong's computer model does this automatically and not just over 2 dimensions, but unbounded dimensional search which is why it requires a supercomputer.

If two things are correlated by only a constant time-shifted, then they are correlated. If something always goes up with the other goes down, that is correlated and if the former always goes down again after going up thus predicting that the other will go up after it goes down. Then the longer-term downtrend since 2014 is dominant and mutually correlated.

[DigiLab]

FED's meeting next week, rate hike, or not?
Thoughts?

[GamingBro]

Just finished reading about MA. Unbelievable that people of that time could predict many events associated with the economy

[aminorex]

FED's meeting next week, rate hike, or not?
Thoughts?

You have to be able to game the boards of the regional banks to predict this with any accuracy.  

Big picture:  Failure to hike will be utterly devastating to fed credibility.  OTOH, hiking means market chaos now, and in the long run destroys the US Treasury with debt service.

My *guess*:  They move to preserve credibility sooner rather than later, after seeing what happened to Kuroda.  I'd give it P(hike) ~= .6.  

Gold to fall.  In fact, short-term, I see no scenario which raises gold, short of a war.  It needs to reach oversold levels before the next ramp can occur.  There are fat new buyers coming in, and they want it cheap.  
Short term: Sell XAUUSD.  
Medium term, white metals to outperform:  Short XAUXPT, XAUXPD, XAUXAG.  
Long term, incredibly bullish: Diagonal call spread, short GCM6 1300 call, long GC7Z 1250 call, selling a new OTM call in June, rolling the GC7Z down to 1200, and then holding until overbought for 9 weeks.

EDIT: Suggested a delayed roll-down.

[Risk Mgmt]

THANK YOU -- I trust this above is in-line with Sir Amrstrong

[aminorex]

THANK YOU -- I trust this above is in-line with Sir Amrstrong

I have not read his recent report.  I have often found M. Armstrong's estimations similar to my own.  I was in some disagreement with him about 2015.75, however, and I was proven right, in my own estimation.  Although, I do believe that July was a generational SPX top.  2134, in constant money terms?  Maybe again in 2029.

I describe only the positions I choose for my own portfolio.  Your needs and objectives may differ.

[DigiLab]

aminorex, interesting and handy view. Maybe I'm biased by reasons put out by MA, and I'm leaning more towards yes for the rate hike. But, if one puts himself in FED's shoes, it would be easier for the FED's not to hike the rate, considering what is happening around them (ECB, BOJ, ...). So, if the FED not hike the rate, it would be mostly accepted I guess as part of what the others do. If they do hike the rate, I assume FED's are aware where that leads, and that option might look a bit scary to them.

Anyhow, here is what MA said about it mid-December last year. As it can be witnessed, reasoning elaborated for rate hike doesn't really apply at this period of time (bubble because of the stock market rise), which of course doesn't exclude it for later period of time (being postponed). Still, although that reasoning doesn't quite apply at the moment, it doesn't exclude the rate hike in March (normalizing the rates per FED).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/the-fed-the-future/

[tabnloz]

Nassim Taleb, thematically on the same path as MA

1. The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments. People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment.



2."What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking "clerks" and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think... and 5) who to vote for.
With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.
Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren't even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. I have shown that most of what Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types call "rational" or "irrational" comes from misunderstanding of probability theory."

edit:added 1.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Trump wants to audit the Federal Reserve and clean out the stables.

Return US dollar to constitutional money, new Gold Standard coming?

[OROBTC]

Trump wants to audit the Federal Reserve and clean out the stables.

Return US dollar to constitutional money, new Gold Standard coming?

m_of_a

I don't see Trump taking us back to a gold standard.  Physical gold owners, of size, would benefit too much.  Gold would have to valued at very high levels to be a credible PARTIAL backing of a future US$.

Best, IMO, to just let gold go completely...  Let the 500 paper claims on each ounce just try to get the ONE physical ounce...

fofoa.blogspot.com   <--- Long and complicated, he is the source of "$55,000" (per oz) gold.

*   *   *

Auditing the FED is long overdue.  But, recall that almost all of the gold that the FRBNY has in their Manhattan vault is foreign-owned gold (+/- 400 tonnes is US gold, the rest foreign).  If they come up short, ahh, big oops!

It would be of great use to carefully examine, by a solid & credible audit), all of the various activities of the FED that would be of interest (one I am curious about is how much money they sent to weak European banks).

[TPTB_need_war]

So we are indeed just four elections away from complete chaos: (1) BREXIT, (2) U.S. Presidental Election, (3) Germany’s election, and (4) the French elections.