Martin Armstrong Discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/first-silver-now-gold-deutsche-bank-admits-it-also-rigged-gold-prices-legal-settleme

what's MA say about gold manipulation?

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB, I must say, I love when someone challenges you and you spill out all this good stuff.

I intend to pull all that deep theoretical stuff together one day more coherently and also delve more into CoinCube's interesting theoretical explorations.

Just been lacking available energy due to my illness (which appears to be on the mend), and now off on the tangent of deep coding and computer science research and practicalities.

I need to go back to sleep now, because the cure is asking for so much sleep.

My posts will be sort of jumbled and all over the place due to this chaotic state of my life, energy, falling asleep at any time, waking for an hour, sleepy again, brownouts interrupting my work or sleep (difficult to sleep without aircon here), etc.. In and out of consciousness. Sometimes I am not sure if I was awake or dreaming when I wrote something.

[mnemonicsoup]

Thank you, TPTB_need_war,

I find your posts incredibly interesting and thought provoking. I noticed you in the Monero Speculation thread. Please don't mind the people criticising,
there are surely a lot of silent readers appreciating your input. I really like the fact that you focus on a bigger picture instead of viewing crypto as this isolated sphere.

I am wondering if the conclusion from MA's and your prediction that the smartest thing to do, would be to invest in
dollars now, wait for everything to go down in late 2016, then invest in pm, blue chip and crypto and sell when
the market goes up in 2017/2018?

But what to do after that? Since the big crash will come around 2020? Where to invest in those times? Remain in pm and crypto?

Also, I've noticed that you predict the us market to go up in 2018 and TA talks about 2017? I'm also wondering why you predict gold to go down to 850? If the stock market
goes down 2016.75, wouldn't it make sense that gold goes up in a panic reaction? Also, do you have any opinion/prediction about mining stocks?

[Fern]

The question is if Gold does go to 850 or less then will it be available to buy. I would hate to sell physical now, get the timing right but then be unable to buy. Perhaps the best decision is to keep buying as it dips.

[mnemonicsoup]

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

[TPTB_need_war]

[...]

As for the USA, it is a mixed bag now. The melting pot was held together by economic opportunity. But now the country is a mix of socialism, bible belt veiled racism/fundamentalism, libertarianism, feminism, militias, etc.. As Armstrong has predicted, the USA will break apart into regions. It can not sustain the melting pot once the economic opportunity begins to collapse after 2018. This is what socialism killed. Well we were never really united, it was just a mirage of immigrants suppressing their own cultures and language when they arrived so they could attain economic advancement. This was because we were in the past discriminating against those who didn't adopt our culture. But political correctness killed that and so now the USA will fracture.

This is fact.

Liberals hate the damned facts. But facts are facts.

P.S. As for the European Union ... shudder ... there is actually more opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe, but we'll have to see if they can get their act together in terms of rule of law and not rule by an oligarchy and then taking out their frustrations on us in the west. We have enough of our own problems and so can't be a target of your angst at your own corrupt system.

This thread serves mainly to deflect attention away from Dash's instamine scam.

+1 for conscious reason.

The subconscious reason this thread exists is the psychological phenomenon that it is better to destroy everyone, than to fail alone.

"I dropped my ice cream in the mud, so now I am throwing mud on your ice cream so we are the same, because God hates us equally".

This is what socialism built. Equality is prosperity, because fairness is the uniformity of nature's Gaussian distribution. Equality is a human right! Didn't you know that!

They would rather waste the time of important coders whose time would be better spent coding a solution for humanity, so as to satisfy their inability to accept their mistakes and jealousy.

[TPTB_need_war]

I am wondering if the conclusion from MA's and your prediction that the smartest thing to do, would be to invest in
dollars now, wait for everything to go down in late 2016, then invest in pm, blue chip and crypto and sell when
the market goes up in 2017/2018?

Basically that is the general idea. But I am not sure if BTC will decline. Armstrong didn't write about crypto price expectations. I correlated it to gold, because both are small cap, privacy (hedge against government and public investments) assets.

But what to do after that? Since the big crash will come around 2020? Where to invest in those times? Remain in pm and crypto?

Yeah probably out of paper into hard assets and maybe crypto if it can remain viable. And maybe investments in hi-tech and bottom in Asia around 2020.

Also, I've noticed that you predict the us market to go up in 2018 and TA talks about 2017? I'm also wondering why you predict gold to go down to 850? If the stock market
goes down 2016.75, wouldn't it make sense that gold goes up in a panic reaction? Also, do you have any opinion/prediction about mining stocks?

Did gold go up in 2008 when the stock market collapsed.

I'd get out of mining stocks as quickly as you can.

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

The delay was because the Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to aid Europe, China, etc.. But the recent emergency Fed meetings were be because the market is raising rates and the Fed is losing control.

[altcoinUK]

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

It is not exactly what Arsmtrong has "announced". It seems you are looking for guarantees from Armstrong and from his often wrong interpreter, TPTB_need_war. On the other hand, Armstrong provides you with signals which are always conditional. That means, the expected event - in this case the decline of gold - depends on certain criteria/conditions, i.e. gold decline will happen if a, b, c, etc., conditions are in place. He has clearly outlined those in his analysis and reports, so you could hedge your trades by taking into account those a, b, c, etc., conditions. That’s how you trade, ain’t you? In fact, even if you were heavily betting on the decline of gold, but if you hedged your trade sensibly (e.g. with stocks just to mention the most obvious), you actually could make lots of money even if gold was going against you.

On the note of technicalities, I wrote several times here that I don’t trade gold, but I hedge all the time with gold miner (GDX) and based on my daily involvement with gold miners here is what I can see. It seems to me, the indicators pretty much in line with Armstrong’s expectation about gold. The technicalities clearly indicate that the bulls were trying to start a rally in 07/14, 07/15, 10/15 and 03/15, but in then then they quit after only 4 days of upward price movement in all those cases. This indicates that they (gold investors and the market) did not have the ammunition to form a meaningful rally when they had the perfect opportunity to do so. This means, the bulls probably don’t have the capacity to stop a further decline in the near future.

Based on the trends, I would think it is extremely risky to invest in gold, though of course the situation can change in the next 1-2 months (after all you never know that the corrupt Troika will come up with what kind of bulllshit). Personally, I will keep using GDX as a hedging instrument, this time shorting it.

[TPTB_need_war]

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

It is not exactly what Arsmtrong has "announced". It seems you are looking for guarantees from Armstrong and from his often wrong interpreter, TPTB_need_war. On the other hand, Armstrong provides you with signals which are always conditional.

True. I have stated that many times upthread. The slingshot scenario is currently the favored one though. And the recent Fed emergency meetings seems to make it much more likely.

[TPTB_need_war]

Europe is culturally destroyed...

you did not state it as a statistical fact...and high crime in area with poverty does not imply the abandonment of rule of law ...it is an inference that is bigoted. One that I find disturbing. It has tainted, greatly my opinion of your. Sorry thats how I feel. and that's a fact

It is a statistical fact that inner cities regions have higher crime rates, but thus by definition a lower respect for the rule of law. Crime can't increase if there aren't more people who disrespect the law or an ineffective legal system that allows repeat offenders. Or a corrupt legal system that prosecutes the innocent. In either case or all of the above, it makes my statement factual.

And it is evident by recent protects that the African-american community to some extent feels the justice system is not entirely serving their interests.

There is some grey area in there, so I did include the word 'perhaps'.

Now would you please stop cluttering the thread with a nonsense attempt to label me as a social misfit. Your biased motivation as a Waves supporter is entirely obvious.

And you are also wasting my very expensive time, which is really pissing me off. Stay on topic. Damn it!

WTF happened to our world. Instead of engineers and coders, we've become the social misfit conformance cry baby gestapo propaganda slaves. Is that how you young Europeans think about life, that is always about equality as a human right. Fuck man, no wonder Europe is fucking toasted. Entitled spoiled cry babies, who get pissed off when we don't let them make MLM scams to steal from us.

WTF happened to our world. Instead of engineers and coders, we've become the social misfit conformance cry baby gestapo propaganda slaves. Is that how you young Europeans think about life, that is always about equality as a human right. Fuck man, no wonder Europe is fucking toasted. Entitled spoiled cry babies, who get pissed off when we don't let them make MLM scams to steal from us.

how to spit on our ancestors fight for rights in 3 lines  don't forget that humanity has not enjoyed such rights for 99% of its existence.

The Magna Carta and Bill of Rights didn't propose to make us equal. Get an education and then come back here. Until then, don't let the door hit you in your dumb ass on the way out of here. Bye uneducated dufus. You are now on Ignore along with the other dumb or disingenuous trolls traumschiff and Come-from-Beyond.

[mnemonicsoup]

Actually, I haven't read (a lot) Armstrongs predictions and am not trading but find this all very fascinating. I am not looking for guarantee that anything will go up or down but am interested to know what you (or Armstrong) thinks why gold would go down. It just seems to me that if the markets experience a low in 2016.75 (for example) gold should go up, no? Or what are the reasons that this would not be the case? (I am thinking about buying a little gold and was wondering if it will really go to 850).

Also, about gold mines (the "good ones") if as Armstrong says that gold will eventually reach $5000 then the mines should go exponentially higher?

[Fern]

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

Due to high chance of liquidity crisis happening and people having to liquidate assets even if they would prefer not to.

Any future financial shocks may cause businesses to fail or unexpected costs. If people really need cash ASAP then what's going to go first? Bullion and Crypto are high on the list. It will be a case of having to liquidate these assets to meet obligations. Loan payments, bills, living expenses, deals turning sour, businesses failing - so many catalysts for people needing cash.

[mnemonicsoup]

Okay, makes sense, so this temporary low in 2016.75 could be much worse than 2008? And will stay bad for some time?

[pinky]

Okay, makes sense, so this temporary low in 2016.75 could be much worse than 2008? And will stay bad for some time?

Where did you get this date 2016.75 ?

[mnemonicsoup]

Either I saw this on MA's website or it was TPTB but I'm not sure, could also be that I got this wrong.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong has a new piece on gold:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/chinas-coming-gold-fix-april-19th-2016/

He doubts that China will (or even can) do much to destroy the dollar.  Where would they put their $3 trillion?  China is already the world's number one producer of gold, and their .gov is encouraging their citizens to own it.

Armstrong also disses the idea that gold will go to a very high price ($10,000, or even $64,000, non-hyper-inflated dollars).  I am not sure that I agree with MA on this.  My best guess is that they will run out of physical gold at some point vs. all the paper gold.  I guess we will wait and see.

*   *   *

Shanghai's gold exchange starts running on April 19.  There is some buzz in the gold community about that, but recent price movements in gold show no apprehension either way (price up or down).

*   *   *

YES, at some point I hope that Armstrong takes a good look at Bitcoin and offers up his unique perspective.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong put up another piece of interest re Phase Transition (and taking a poke at the Republican Party establishment).  Marty received a t question on the Phase Transition, and when it would be "over" (money would then leave the USA, as TPTB has explained at length elsewhere in this thread).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/the-other-side-of-a-phase-transition/

Armstrong also takes a nice poke at Reince Priebus, the head of the Republican Party, who appears to be anti-Trump.  Priebus is very much The Establishment, and represents the old thinking of the R-Team, which has so disappointed & enraged conservatives in the USA.

Highly recommended!

[loafer_1997]

If you are long term investor/swing trader, how do you guys trade this market?

I find it's difficult for me.

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong also disses the idea that gold will go to a very high price ($10,000, or even $64,000, non-hyper-inflated dollars).  I am not sure that I agree with MA on this.  My best guess is that they will run out of physical gold at some point vs. all the paper gold.  I guess we will wait and see.

ORO my man, gold is never coming back as money every again. It is purely a speculation. That is why it will top at $5000 maximum. I understand it is very hard for you to accept this, but the reasons are very obvious. Physical money is a dinosaur in this era where we trade money instantly digitally. Gold is too slow. Fugetaboutit already.

Sorry man. I know you want wealth to not grow wings and fly away, but the Bible tells you that is impossible.

I love to hold gold 1 oz coins in my hand. It isn't a lack of passion for gold on my part. It is just my rationality.

[TPTB_need_war]

But why should it dip at all? Unfortunately, I can't afford the Gold report. The dip was announced for 2016 Q1, so far it hasn't occurred.

Due to high chance of liquidity crisis happening and people having to liquidate assets even if they would prefer not to.

Any future financial shocks may cause businesses to fail or unexpected costs. If people really need cash ASAP then what's going to go first? Bullion and Crypto are high on the list. It will be a case of having to liquidate these assets to meet obligations. Loan payments, bills, living expenses, deals turning sour, businesses failing - so many catalysts for people needing cash.

And the multiplier effect that speculators chase (pile on to) the momentum. Which is why it can be a V bottom because it is not fundamental, just an overreaction that feeds into the fear that many have that the world will collapse in unison (because they don't see the effect of the international capital rushing into safe haven of the USA, gold, tangible assets).