Martin Armstrong Discussion

[enosenose]

I don't like this bollocks at https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-numbers/

"Marty; your numbers are just incredible. Your number 17800 I thought would be elected. The Dow was above it and looked like it was preparing to take off. ... "

WTF? Why he needs this kind of nonsense with such hosanna from some random assholes? I have his private reports and I read his public blogs, but I can't remember he said anywhere anything about a DJIA 17.8K resistance. Anybody read anything from him about a DJIA 17.8K resistance?

In this particular instance even retail day traders like me could understand (i.e. without the input of Armstrong) and it was clear that the latest rally is a dead cat bounce. I probably even said in this blog that I expect DJIA is flattening out and pulling back. I have been almost as long on the market as Armstrong so by being on the market you learn to be calm and understand when the market is uncertain. Plus, all sane analysts like Caldaro and the rest say clearly that this is very much a bear market right now. So even my 4 years old grand daughter would started shorting from DJIA 18K 6 weeks ago and wouldn't fall for this latest bull trap. Why he needs such hosanna about fairly obvious numbers, when again, in fact he hasn't even said anything about the DJIA 17.8K resistance? (or I just completely missed that).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

" We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive."

within a week, your super forecaster has flip flop again to the bull camp.... what a joke.

[sidhujag]

Again don't focus on his short term predictions... calling out numbers like 17.8 is just yelling scam to me... I doubt he is even more right than anyone else who knows whats going on... just stick to your instincts and bet long term... you will lose on short term bets most likely.

[iamnotback]

Thought this was a pretty decent post by M.A. explaining his theory (the dollar strengthening first over the next while) vs what a lot of others think (dollar steadily weakening from this point).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/dollar-reality-end-of-petro-dollars/

That post is gold to me.  It nicely summarizes his view of the current situation.  And his scenario does seem to make sense.

That MA blog post well summarized what had been explained in this thread by those who understood well MA's theme. Heck I first read about the dollar short phenomenon in MA's 2013 blog post. He wrote about it again in 2014.

...[discussion about gold and BTC price projections]...

Follow ups:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/oil-have-we-reached-the-next-turning-point/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

[altcoinUK]

I don't like this bollocks at https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-numbers/

"Marty; your numbers are just incredible. Your number 17800 I thought would be elected. The Dow was above it and looked like it was preparing to take off. ... "

WTF? Why he needs this kind of nonsense with such hosanna from some random assholes? I have his private reports and I read his public blogs, but I can't remember he said anywhere anything about a DJIA 17.8K resistance. Anybody read anything from him about a DJIA 17.8K resistance?

In this particular instance even retail day traders like me could understand (i.e. without the input of Armstrong) and it was clear that the latest rally is a dead cat bounce. I probably even said in this blog that I expect DJIA is flattening out and pulling back. I have been almost as long on the market as Armstrong so by being on the market you learn to be calm and understand when the market is uncertain. Plus, all sane analysts like Caldaro and the rest say clearly that this is very much a bear market right now. So even my 4 years old grand daughter would started shorting from DJIA 18K 6 weeks ago and wouldn't fall for this latest bull trap. Why he needs such hosanna about fairly obvious numbers, when again, in fact he hasn't even said anything about the DJIA 17.8K resistance? (or I just completely missed that).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

" We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive."

within a week, your super forecaster has flip flop again to the bull camp.... what a joke.

OK, you are quite right to say that, but please note, nobody is having a fucking clue about what is happening on the market.

Caldaro, from a bear transformed into a bull, now he is in the bull camp and he blames the PPT (Plunge Protection Team), and he is one of the most intelligent analysts. All technicals and fundamentals contradict this rally, so people are confused. For example the number of IPOs is at historically low which would indicate a bear market should come. The VIX was historically low, which would indicate a sudden pull back. Still the rally is on. In the past, Armstrong would say: the market is not tradeable, get out. So he was honest. My trade were always long straddle in that situation and it always worked just fine. Now Armstrong is saying nothing useful or flip-flopping, because he has no clue as well. So yes, since Friday everyone is a bull again.

I am not overly worried about the situation. If the SPX 2131 resistance dont hold then we could have the case for a bull market, but who knows. In this situation I am on long straddle again, nothing can go wrong with that.

[klee]

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24SPX,PGPBDANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]

2150 or doom

[iamnotback]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

" We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive."

within a week, your super forecaster has flip flop again to the bull camp.... what a joke.

The joke is on you not understanding that Armstrong is writing about the medium-term when he is bullish, and in the shorter-term his reversals are guiding us through bounces and dips until we get the V crash slingshot that sets up the medium-term blast off.

Your lack of reading comprehension is the joke. AltcoinUK enjoins you in that handicap.

[enosenose]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

" We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive."

within a week, your super forecaster has flip flop again to the bull camp.... what a joke.

The joke is on you not understanding that Armstrong is writing about the medium-term when he is bullish, and in the shorter-term his reversals are guiding us through bounces and dips until we get the V crash slingshot that sets up the medium-term blast off.

Your lack of reading comprehension is the joke. AltcoinUK enjoins you in that handicap.

slingshot that feeable puppet mind of yours.... guiding useless scenario after the fact.

[iamnotback]

The joke is on you not understanding that Armstrong is writing about the medium-term when he is bullish, and in the shorter-term his reversals are guiding us through bounces and dips until we get the V crash slingshot that sets up the medium-term blast off.

Your lack of reading comprehension is the joke. AltcoinUK enjoins you in that handicap.

slingshot that feeable puppet mind of yours.... guiding useless scenario after the fact.

As MA has explained, there will always be dumb people to be the bagholders in the market. There is nothing anyone could do to change that.

[OROBTC]

...

Now that $hillary has "won" her nomination, Armstrong focuses in on what may happen in the US Congress:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/now-congress-is-at-stake/

TL;DR

It might not be pretty.

*   *   *

Moi?  I wonder how things would go if Trump wins yet the D-Team takes both houses of Congress...

[altcoinUK]

altcoinUK, I agree %100.  Anyway, I sold some RUT vertical calls last week and it ran up. Gonna hold a bit , expecting a pullback... 

RUT small-cap index usually indicates the direction and then DJIA, SPX catch up. The state of RUT I think confuses Armstrong, Caldaro, Avi Gilburt, etc. and partly that's why they are flip-flopping as it seems RUT is  quite determined to rally, and they think DJIA/SPX will follow. On the other hand all fundamentals such as non-farm payroll data, number of IPOs, ISM index, S&P 500 Price-to-Sales ratio, etc. suggest a pull-back. To be honest I was expecting either a healthy rally or a dramatic pullback from Monday morning that's why I opened a long straddle, but this DJIA 120 points is not very impressive at all. We will know more by the end of the day ... or we will know even less 

[altcoinUK]

On the note of FED here is the view of a wise man. Interesting what he says about the FED

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2016-06-08/david-stockman-s-view-of-trump-vs-clinton

I quote Stockman in this thread because he and Armstrong have very similar views on FED and economy.

[azzekouzeg]

Does anyone knows how actually we should have traded armstrong 1264 number in gold? Because I gotta give it to him, it shot straight up to 1264 and it was like hitting a brick wall. So imagine you do a blind entry and go to bed... only to find out overnight gold went a little bit higher, stopped you out and is  now 1259 and dropping...probably if this was it, he will post an update on his blog that he told us so... but never says the stop level, that you need to know on your own. drives me mad.

[Alex-11]

Does anyone knows how actually we should have traded armstrong 1264 number in gold? Because I gotta give it to him, it shot straight up to 1264 and it was like hitting a brick wall. So imagine you do a blind entry and go to bed... only to find out overnight gold went a little bit higher, stopped you out and is  now 1259 and dropping...probably if this was it, he will post an update on his blog that he told us so... but never says the stop level, that you need to know on your own. drives me mad.

We are discussing tech analysis also here http://armstrong.forumprofi.de/index.php

You need to know what kind of number the 1264 is (daily, weekly or montly)  and then you have to wait until its elected (or not elected) on a closing basis.
You can also take the risk an trade that number as a resistance, but you should also know where the next resistance point is (be it tech resist and/or another reversal).
0.5% risk (stop above that number) should be reasonable IMO. But it also depends on the time level you are trading (i.e. short term vs. mid/long term trading)
It's really not that easy as MA sometimes says it is.  If you are just starting to trade his numbers, I would urge you to trade only with virtual money until you feel confident enough to make decisions with real money.  You should also read all the relevant manuals and articles in regards to how to trade reversals (and "reversals in reverse").

[sidhujag]

Armstrong suggests that once the confidence in government collapse - which according to Armstrong is inevitable - then the capital will flow to private equity, therefore the stock market cannot crash like it crashed in 1929.
Please note he also says that there could be lots of volatility until that big stock market rally will happen, the market could tests the lows down to 13,000 (on Wall Street) which probably will be seen as a big crash by many.

yup his only value is in seeing what happens AFTER confidence is lost, because we know it will happen we don't know when and we don't know what happens after.. his models seem to "predict" that so id give 1% edge to him just because there is some data backing it up.. but only 1%.. which in trading makes all the difference. In the end if your looking at numbers and trading off of them your going to lose because he is no better than anyone else here or any noob around. His trend forcasts for long term are where any hope lies in proving his worth.

[Alex-11]

Marty's forecast arrays are fucking hilarious   You have 10 different measures for each date so one of them will hit 100%. thell AHA! nailed it!

Actually there are only two (the turning points / composite and the directional change) which are the most relevant.  Panic and Volatility can be considered too, but not necessarily.

Will be hilarious as people start to lose big money with his numbers.

well, nobody is forced to trade with real money right away. You can first test the numbers....

Even in his trader preview i did not see buy and sell signals

In the latest screen-cast of Socrates trader level I've seen a buy signal on the daily level.

Also Martin does show every now and then a chart when his computer has bought and sold a market.
On the private blog he has also stated recently when to buy or sell Gold (e.g. when "the back of Gold is broken"). At the moment there is churning back and forth with no real direction (for the investor).
But I can understand your frustration that there are too few signals given from him.  I think he is also trying to teach his customers how to make decisions on their own because he will not be there for long anymore ....  But it can be really very challenging without a structured and complete training, that I have to say.

[OROBTC]

...

I have mentioned on occasion that for me the greatest value of Armstrong's (public) blog is for his ideas.  I am not a "trader" nor likely to become one.  I hold a great diversity of assets and types of assets (including a some BTC).  Diversification is almost always a winner.

NO ONE can reliably predict the future.  SOME trends can be looked at, and quite possibly conclusions can be drawn that enhance the odds of trading success or minimizing risk.

[jehst]

Sounds like all we know is that there is going to be crisis and a lot of panicked money moving around. Stocks could plunge first. Could go up. Just be long volatility.

[STT]

If stocks can go up in Zimbabwe even with the market being threatened by government, I think it'll easily go up in this case also.   Especially this is the case where the quoted companies have global business, the stock price is not reliant on currency this is where bonds are a failure as they can only pay out one thing.   The UK does have a large amount of inflation tracking bonds but this figure is a government statistic pretty much

Not sure how to be long volatility exactly, would that not be gold which is said to be inert and removed from currency considerations its flat over time.  The main argument being relatively its price is undervalued or put another way the dollar is overvalued now considering its debt risk (ie. bonds pay out dollars into circulation in the end game)

You should look at the work or studies of Marc Faber especially his look at the Mexican peso and stocks there over time.  I think he saw no loss but also no growth for holders of a national index over a decade.
He has experienced many extremes in finance even personally since the 70's  Some think he is biased but I'd say just well weathered by rough seas :p

[enosenose]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-v-yellen/

" We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive."

within a week, your super forecaster has flip flop again to the bull camp.... what a joke.

The joke is on you not understanding that Armstrong is writing about the medium-term when he is bullish, and in the shorter-term his reversals are guiding us through bounces and dips until we get the V crash slingshot that sets up the medium-term blast off.

Your lack of reading comprehension is the joke. AltcoinUK enjoins you in that handicap.

slingshot that feeable puppet mind of yours.... guiding useless scenario after the fact.

Thanks Marty, for showing what a benchmark example of: guiding useless scenario after the fact in another of his own infomercial Q&A write up on his mumbo jumbo un-tradeable arrays.

Reviewing The Dow Arrays
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/reviewing-the-dow-arrays/

[enosenose]

Yeah I remember him calling 13k in dow too last time market was dropping. That is completely non-tradeable advice. If you cannot dodge 40% drop then what are you even advcing? There wouldn't be any more important advice than sell or hold at that point. No... we might reach 13k...

It's the same thing with his investor level and arrays etc. the info is not vague at all which is a tell tell sign of mambo jambo.

If we speak about markets in general, all non-tradeable advices are not advices at all. YOu see this all the time and 99% of info you read are like this. It's just speculation. If you do not give strict buy or sell signal, it's not a real advice and carries zero value. Even in his trader preview i did not see buy and sell signals, just reversals if that then that might.

And btw. i can bet too that some day we will reach 23k dow. That i can advice.

he is hedging his own ass in either mkt directions of breaking out / down within the 20 months range...., so he starts getting bullish or bearish at the two boundary levels.

when either conditions occur eventually, he is going to claim that he has "forecast" it X months ago... hence inducing waves of euphoric ecstasy to his sheeps.  

between the boundary condition, his sentiment changes every other day with the mkt tick, just like Dennis Gartman (at least DG adds value by being consistently wrong).

notice the lack of bullish stance in his write up after Fri's mkt px action...also, his Reversal System is all abt TA, and he clams that it does not uses TA.... what a massive warp ego.  

the daily mkt entertainment pieces continues:

Week in Review – Markets
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/week-in-review-markets/

"This is where our Reversal System keeps us out of harm’s way. It defines the critical points up and down and they do so like nothing else. They are not moving averages, stochastics, technical analysis, or anything subjective. There is no personal opinion involved and that eliminates human error because nobody can do this from a “I think” perspective. The Reversals simply define the critical points and markets gravitate to them rather amazingly like magnets. They will define the change and what we look at is a unified election across the broad scope of markets. The Reversals can catch the trend that is confirmed on a global perspective rather than a single isolated market."