Martin Armstrong Discussion

[altcoinUK]

I understand the sceptics, but I think we need to be careful to make conclusion about Armstrong's work and quality - he might be very well correct about the mid and long term trends.
We discussed on the other page how disconnected is everything in the market and it seems everything work against logic and common sense. Armstrong said this in early 2015: "The future will be the decoupling of stock prices from earnings because we are dealing with capital preservation.". It is very possible the "capital preservation" causes this uncertainty on the market. That means the fundamentals pull down the market, but the capital preservation has also started. If that's true then we will get to the 23K which was mentioned above. (I would expect the market test the February lows before that).

[altcoinUK]

The man became bullish like there is no day tomorrow.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/retail-sales-of-us-equities-domestic-foreign-reaching-historical-low/

I don't buy that Marty. I think the bulls will be slaughtered a few times before it goes a lot higher. I am not closing my VIX and UVXY trades just now.

[iamnotback]

Someone should email this to Armstrong:

Can you only use a pencil to vote?

Mandy, from Sutton-in-Ashfield, asked this one - and the answer is no. You can use a pen, if you want. But electoral law states that clerks must provide pencils in polling booths.

[OROBTC]

...

@ iamnotback and anyone else who wants to chip in here

I know that iamnotback is somewhat negative on BOTH BTC and gold, but I would be interested in your views on relative strengths of both assets based on the BTC price run-up of the past few days.  ounce.me now has the BTC:Au ratio at about 1.87, the lowest it has been in a long time.

So, what do you think?  Is this a good time to buy gold with BTC?  I am interested only in an academic sense, I made a decision just today...

[iamnotback]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/nigel-farage-on-the-future-of-immigration-post-brexit/

The majority of the money had bet on a failure of the BREXIT:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/brexit-sterling-euro/

Unless TPTB somehow steal this election or do some other actions to nullify a "Leave" result (which would also drive volatility/uncertainty crazy), the "Leave" vote should cause volatility/uncertainty to skyrocket. So instead of getting a sustained deadcat rally in the Euro up to 1.25 which I expected if BREXIT failed, we could instead see the Euro collapse soon and the dollar rally blast off sooner. This might also drive private (safe haven) assets up sooner (e.g. US stocks, gold, and BTC), but if this reversal is too precipitous then it could also cause a liquidity crunch which might cause a selloff in liquid assets such as gold and BTC.

Note I've read that the UK leaving will take a minimum of 2 years and they have to negotiate with the EU to leave, which could take much longer than 2 years. So this could get very politically messy. Volatility/uncertainty appears to be on the verge of skyrocketing.

Gold moved back up when the Fed didn't raise rates. BTC seems to be on a vertical rise after finally completing a U bottom (which was my alternative scenario to a topping < $500 and continued decline to a lower low) won what appears to be an attempt to retest $1200, which normally one would expect a 33 - 67% pullback from such a vertical move out of a long-winded U bottom. The halving may be a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Perhaps the coming SegWit hard fork later this year is also inspiring some confidence in Bitcoin being able get forward movement on scaling transaction rate and towards Lightning Networks for instant transactions (btw all of that I think is flawed and won't scale to millions of users any time soon so I'd expect an exhale as the reality of those Rube Goldberg designs come to light). Btw, I am very happy about BTC moving up so much as it means a lot more wealth and interest in altcoins since as you know I am working on an altcoin.

Gold and BTC have always been out-of-phase, so gold had its rally to $1300 first then dumped. BTC is having its rally, and then I expect a dump once it is done.

The question is what impact will the BREXIT have on Fed interest rates and the movement of international capital. I think it going to cause immediately a strong dollar, which will send gold down. I think BTC will follow gold down but out-of-phase later (let's say a drop from $1200 to $800 or $400).

These smaller markets such as gold and BTC are more dependent on the dollar strength and interest rates because they are still for the moment primarily liquidity driven markets and not yet safe haven stampede driven markets. Eventually dollar, US stocks, gold, and BTC will all align as safe haven private assets as the world comes to realization of severity of the sovereign debt implosion ahead. But as this gathers inertia in the initial stages, then capital is still likely to be conservative and choose the dollar and then US stocks. Will the Fed view this influx of capital as an opportunity to unload its balance sheet and restore interest rates or continue to keep rates low to help Europe and China?

If the money initially moving into the dollar is into US Treasury bonds, the Fed might view raising interest rates as a way to deflect that capital since rising interest rates make bond investments loose value. Remember it is reverse of the way most people think. They think higher interest rates mean more yield (true), but if you buy a bond at 0.5% rate and the rate rises to 1%, then you sell the bond for less than you paid for it.

So a rush of conservative big money capital into the dollar is likely to be into US Treasuries for the last big hooray for US sovereign bonds, causing the Fed to finally start signaling rising rates to drive that capital out of bonds and  the dollar, hoping this will sustain the Euro. But instead, that will drive the money crazy (not conservative) and into US stocks.

So this is why I am saying we can initially get a contagion that takes gold and BTC down. Maybe not. But maybe yes.

So OROBTC, in answer to your question, yes I would sell BTC at the peak of this move. Keep an eye on it. Looks like it can move higher still perhaps to $1200. The halving has not yet occurred. Then I would stay in dollars until gold has bottomed. Then repurchase gold and/or crypto-currencies on their pull backs.

But if you observe that the BREXIT instead causes a sustained up move into gold and BTC, with gold moving well above $1300s, then I'd presume I was wrong and the bottom in gold is behind us.

P.S. The BREXIT is one of those black swans that can't be predicted with cycles. The conflagration of the contagion in Europe in general is following cycles of nation building and collapse. The UK has always maintained an exceptional position in the EU and it may pull away for one last deadcat bounce on the former British Empire. The UK would be exception to the organism in the Petri dish that can't escape from its predicament (as I had written with "Understand Everything Fundamentally" where I predicted in 2010 that EU would not tear apart), because the UK has only had one foot in the EU and the other foot outside. The other EU nations are unlikely to be able to exit. The EU Troika will become much more ruthless now, so as to make sure the UK lead does not cause others to vote to leave. I think this BREXIT will begin the hot wars in Europe. TPTB use war when necessary when there is no other option. We are entering a very dangerous phase now.

Edit: appears that an exodus from ETH that is probably going to soon be a stampede, might be contributing to the BTC rise?

[tabnloz]

@TPTBNW

Seems like the Fed is stuck. They are navigating a meteor shower in the dark.

It can't assist China and not have a negative impact on Japan & Europe. And it can't help itself without taking down everyone else.

- If it is indeed trying to assist China in a kind of 'forced' CB collusion (ie Shanghai Accord) - where ECB & Japan are pressured to play along (looks increasingly likely) then the effect is further deflation in EU & Japan, falling bond yields & relative strength in their currencies vs Yuan. This causes more problems with pension funds and a continuation of falling bank stocks (hello Deutcshe Bank!). And the effect it has had in China is a more 'orderly' devaluation of the Yuan - good for btc as money rushes for the exit.

It's a case of opposites. It can't raise rates without a major disruption worldwide as everywhere else is hamstrung by deflation, China is seeking to devalue and the stock market is the only thing the Fed seems to give a hoot about, being the annointed public shopfront of 'everything is OK'. What do they do? Help the monstrous debt pile of China (whose stimulus saved the world in 08) or themselves? Decemeber was a global lead balloon and China can't have the impossible trinity, the peg is the thing that will break. It either happens in chaos or with a concerted attempt at pulling a three card trick. If the US goes for protectionaism, a rising USD makes US denominated corporate debt a frickin timebomb with a short fuse although it helps pension funds marginally.

You can only jawbone for so long. The crowd begins to lose faith (see german politicians / bankers) the shorters circle (Soros, Icahn, Druck) and those getting politically hammered at home (Abe) start vaguely threatening to go full scale currency war to save themselves.


In the end, this is what Armstrong is predicting by watching the capital flows to see where the insider money flows to. Clever, that is his methodology. I see where the gold / btc down call comes from. Anyone who champions any asset as 'weatherproof' will probably be shown up in the event of a crisis which could really come from any direction, although I agree that the US could be the last bastion of safety for a period (UST), until of course the public realise that all governments are susceptible.

[iamnotback]

tabnloz, if the British pound skyrockets w.r.t. to the Euro, then UK will end up with a large trade deficit and exporters will be crushed. This would tend to send capital to the dollar as safe haven last resort in 2017. Also all the political upheaval that is coming down the pike now.

It seems at some point we have to get some liquidity contagion (similar to what Hoover wrote about the Great Depression was like chairs on the deck of the Titanic being tossed from side-to-side in confusion and volatility) and this could initially take speculation assets down.

Armstrong's models predict gold to continue rising through 2024 and the monetary reset not to be fully invoked until then. The period until 2020, is more about the end of cash and rise of capital controls and war.

Don't be premature thinking gold and BTC are already the "go to safe haven assets of first choice". They are still primarily speculations at this point and strong dollar and rising interest rates can interrupt them.

Treat all huge gains in these tiny speculative market caps as profit taking opportunities. Ditto anyone who was in ETH should have taken some profits after the ~100X gain to $15 from the IPO.

Build a core position from non-nose bleed price levels. This will be a multi-year bull market. When the speculative assets move up too fast relative to their market cap, they are getting ahead of reality (e.g. for example their actual adoption rate not just speculation value) and need a correction.

It appears that both ETH and BTC are making a nose-bleed run right now, and I expect this is phase transition up to a top and pullback. For BTC, it has a solid U bottom base, so the pullback might be moderate say 33 - 67% from what the peak ends up being. ETH appears it might be destroyed by the DAO, so the wasteland crash that follows might be of epic proportions. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

[THX 1138]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave"...

From MA on the 31st May:

...It just so happens that the United Kingdom was born under Queen Ann on May 1, 1707, which was 1707.331. If the BREXIT vote is rejected, civil unrest will start in Britain 309.6 years from that date, which will be 2016.931 or December 5th/6th, 2016...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/let-the-voter-fraud-begin-in-brexit-ready-set-rig-it/

***

An academic [Dr Lars Mosesson] from Buckinghamshire New University has said there is no legal obligation for the result of the EU referendum to be implemented following the vote...

..."The European Union Referendum Act 2015 only provides for holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU: it does not provide that the government is legally obliged to take action on whatever the public decides."
...
...should the public vote to leave, the government could decide not to begin the formal process. He also said that it was possible for the House of Commons, the House of Lords or the Queen to decide not to approve the legislation that would be needed, adding: "If the Queen decided to withhold royal assent, it would be the first time the Monarch has exercised this right since Queen Anne did so for the Scottish Militia Bill in 1707..."

http://bucks.ac.uk/content/newsroom/2016/Dr_Lars_Mosesson

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong today reminds us that pension problems are not limited to the USA.  Pension problems in the UK:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pensions-continue-to-spiral-downward/

The UK steelworkers are about to lose part or much of theirs it seems.

*   *   *

OROBTC editorial comment:

If any of you are thinking that YOUR pensions may come through OK, then (at a minimum) you should consider what might happen if your counterparty defaults in paying you...

I will not receive ANY pension money, not even Social Security (USA, not enough years in the private sector paying into the system, and for my .gov years I took the lump-sum payment).

My *guess* is that all pensions are at risk.  Plan accordingly.

[iamnotback]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

...

Note I've read that the UK leaving will take a minimum of 2 years and they have to negotiate with the EU to leave, which could take much longer than 2 years. So this could get very politically messy. Volatility/uncertainty appears to be on the verge of skyrocketing.

From MA on the 31st May:

...It just so happens that the United Kingdom was born under Queen Ann on May 1, 1707, which was 1707.331. If the BREXIT vote is rejected, civil unrest will start in Britain 309.6 years from that date, which will be 2016.931 or December 5th/6th, 2016...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/let-the-voter-fraud-begin-in-brexit-ready-set-rig-it/

***

An academic [Dr Lars Mosesson] from Buckinghamshire New University has said there is no legal obligation for the result of the EU referendum to be implemented following the vote...

..."The European Union Referendum Act 2015 only provides for holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU: it does not provide that the government is legally obliged to take action on whatever the public decides."
...
...should the public vote to leave, the government could decide not to begin the formal process. He also said that it was possible for the House of Commons, the House of Lords or the Queen to decide not to approve the legislation that would be needed, adding: "If the Queen decided to withhold royal assent, it would be the first time the Monarch has exercised this right since Queen Anne did so for the Scottish Militia Bill in 1707..."

http://bucks.ac.uk/content/newsroom/2016/Dr_Lars_Mosesson

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

The Greek referendum was binding... still the government turned it upside down violating the constitution.

If brexit is voted in the UK, and not followed upon, the elite will also lose control of the government in the longrun (UKIP boost by several tens % to enforce the ignored referendum). That's supposing the ukip is not elite-controlled, and I'm not that good at UK-politics to make that determination.

[deisik]

If any of you are thinking that YOUR pensions may come through OK, then (at a minimum) you should consider what might happen if your counterparty defaults in paying you...

I will not receive ANY pension money, not even Social Security (USA, not enough years in the private sector paying into the system, and for my .gov years I took the lump-sum payment).

My *guess* is that all pensions are at risk.  Plan accordingly.

Your gold may be at risk too

[OROBTC]

If any of you are thinking that YOUR pensions may come through OK, then (at a minimum) you should consider what might happen if your counterparty defaults in paying you...

I will not receive ANY pension money, not even Social Security (USA, not enough years in the private sector paying into the system, and for my .gov years I took the lump-sum payment).

My *guess* is that all pensions are at risk.  Plan accordingly.

Your gold may be at risk too

Well, that's true.  But every asset holds some kind of risk, Bitcoin is not at all immune.  I would personally see BTC as higher risk than gold (albeit with the possibility of greater return).

Holding gold does expose one to confiscation risk as well as theft risk.  But, "paper gold" is even worse (as it will not be there) when the rubber meets the road.

I have long counseled diversification.  Gold and Bitcoin move quite differently vs. stocks and bonds (and each other).

Those dependent on pensions may be at even higher risk.  An ugly situation.

[sloanf]

So many pages written but still there are so many utter idiots who still are not able to see the MA scam and keep buying his crap regardless of overwhelming evidence posted here and all over the internet. Check all my posts where I expose this charlatan and his fraud. A brief reminder to his loyal idiots:

1. Did Dow go to 32-40K? No, even after he shifted the dates several times. He called for a slingshot at least three times - never happened.  
2. Did real estate go down after 2012? No, it is still rising and at all time highs in many locations.
3. Did gold fall below 1000? Never and it is rising.
4. Did bonds collapse since 2015.75? No, bonds are rising and at all time highs.
5. Has the shift from bonds to equities ever occurred as MA preached for years? No, the opposite is happening.
6. Did governments fall after so called big bang? No.
7. Did the us dollar soar? No, the opposite happened.
8. Did the gop split and other third party cycle computer bs as MA preached for years? No.
9. Has Trump been killed as MA predicted? No, He is the gop nominee.
10. Did the Fed raise rates this year? No.
... the list goes on and on both on long- and short-term predictions. Some of them I covered in my earlier posts.

One of his latest failure: here https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-dollar/ and https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/dollar-rally-on-capital-flight-from-europe/ he claims his victory by  bragging he was right about top in gold for the year along with his usual crappy sales bs about his non-existing global fund manager experience. "We will scream loudly when it is time to buy at the low". Well, guess what? Today gold has exceeded May highs contrary to the MA predictions as usual. Anybody heard him screaming loudly about time to buy? And how about the euro: he abandoned his call on 116 here https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/euro-near-collapse/ and https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/is-the-pending-euro-collapse-on-target-from-our-2011-forecast-of-2016-202/. The opposite happens right after his bearish forecast. The euro rose contrary to his bs numbers from his deeply flawed ecm model (such as this 2016.202), but when the euro eventually hit 116, he claims he was spot on.

Summary: MA fails at almost everything just like with his entire trading experience but never ever admits he is wrong. Even when he is absolutely clearly wrong, he still claims he is right by simply lying, fabricating numbers, denying facts, flip-flopping, etc. Bottom line is: he is an uneducated convicted fraudster, a charlatan and a con artist with weak or no knowledge in virtually everything he gets to talk about on his cheap website, a totally failed trader, a cheap used car salesman and likely a delusional clown. It is clear that he is there purely for money - nothing of his "I wanna educate masses, help little guy, bring light to humanity" bs. I.e. he sells bs knowing full well that it is bs that almost never works even by accident. However, sometimes it looks like he really believes in his own crap, hence he may be delusional. But whatever it is, do not buy anything from this charlatan and never base your trade decisions on his crap.

[valiz]

But something happened in 2015.75. You would better be prepared.

[iamnotback]

1. Did Dow go to 32-40K? No, even after he shifted the dates several times. He called for a slingshot at least three times - never happened.  
2. Did real estate go down after 2012? No, it is still rising and at all time highs in many locations.
3. Did gold fall below 1000? Never and it is rising.
4. Did bonds collapse since 2015.75? No, bonds are rising and at all time highs.
5. Has the shift from bonds to equities ever occurred as MA preached for years? No, the opposite is happening.
6. Did governments fall after so called big bang? No.
7. Did the us dollar soar? No, the opposite happened.
8. Did the gop split and other third party cycle computer bs as MA preached for years? No.
9. Has Trump been killed as MA predicted? No, He is the gop nominee.
10. Did the Fed raise rates this year? No.
... the list goes on and on both on long- and short-term predictions. Some of them I covered in my earlier posts.

Your characterizations of what he predicted are incorrect. For example, his model shows the Republicans winning the Presidency with high probability. He always stated that one possibility would be Trump might capture the Republican Party else he might lead a 3rd party.

We will not waste our time with you. I am putting your new username on ignore.

Note that some of his blog posts from August - September 2012 have disappeared. Those were the ones where he had indicated the 3 scenarios for the DJIA 18500, 23k, or 32-40k and the timing being either 2015.75 or extended into 2017-2018. The first was achieved already. I specifically remember reading them at that time. I can even remember where I was sitting when i read them. I notice recently that MA pointed out that a reader in Germany was unable to see some of his blog posts. Apparently some entity may be intercepting and altering what we read on his site. We are entering the Twilight Zone of Totalitarianism.

Ditto on all your other points.

sloanf, I have a thread for you to read about ethics:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1513252.msg15234366#msg15234366

(because this is the altcoin game and know the rules or lack thereof before you play) ...


If Michael Jordan had expend his time and effort explaining why all the other players sucked, he would not be a G.O.A.T..

Achievers achieve. Bitchers bitch.

Each of us gets to choose.

So why are you wasting your time trying to save us from ourselves  

Go create your Martin Armstrong Bitching thread. And see how many readers you can get.

[iamnotback]

My wild ass thought is Trump late this year or Q12017 may use the bully-pulpit to force the FED to normalize interest rates in order to save the Pension plans and that should cause a short-term collapse in gold (and maybe Bitcoin also):

The Dow declined because the Fed did not raise rates, and gold rallied for the same reason. This is counter-trend to the general “fundamental” expectations. The Dow was doing well with the prospect of a rate hike until the Jobs Report, and it rallied but stopped dead with the Weekly Bullish Reversal at 17800. Gold crashed but held our critical Bearish Reversal at 1206 and bounced. While the gold crowd thinks a rally is good because the market will crash, at the same time we have the Dow declining with lower rates instead of higher rates. These trends are showing extreme stress in the financial markets overall.

Or maybe some other event will force the rates higher, perhaps with the BREXIT outcome being the catalyst which drive volatility and causes some stress fracture to open up.

[sloanf]

This charlatan does it again. Here he was bullish on the Dow https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/retail-sales-of-us-equities-domestic-foreign-reaching-historical-low/
Just four days after he turned bearish https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/dow-update-june-16th-2016/. He is a Gartman-2 but with a little difference: Gartman is more useful. Ok, so to justify his yet another flip-flopping MA blames the weak jobs report and the fed. But the thing is that the jobs report came before his bullish forecast, not after. What a cheap lying con! 

[freshman777]

And the rate hike isn't coming as he predicted. #rekt.

[altcoinUK]

This charlatan does it again. Here he was bullish on the Dow https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/retail-sales-of-us-equities-domestic-foreign-reaching-historical-low/
Just four days after he turned bearish https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/dow-update-june-16th-2016/. He is a Gartman-2 but with a little difference: Gartman is more useful. Ok, so to justify his yet another flip-flopping MA blames the weak jobs report and the fed. But the thing is that the jobs report came before his bullish forecast, not after. What a cheap lying con!  

Too many Monday morning quarterbacks in this thread and talk about Armstrong's observations 1 week later and not at the time of the publishing of the observations. This what I said last week, 1 hour later when Armstrong published that post

The man became bullish like there is no day tomorrow.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/retail-sales-of-us-equities-domestic-foreign-reaching-historical-low/

I don't buy that Marty. I think the bulls will be slaughtered a few times before it goes a lot higher. I am not closing my VIX and UVXY trades just now.

Evaluate his trading pointers in real time like I do or STFU.

[sloanf]

Too many Monday morning quarterbacks in this thread and talk about Armstrong's observations 1 week later and not at the time of the publishing of the observations. This what I said last week, 1 hour later when Armstrong published that post

The man became bullish like there is no day tomorrow.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/retail-sales-of-us-equities-domestic-foreign-reaching-historical-low/

I don't buy that Marty. I think the bulls will be slaughtered a few times before it goes a lot higher. I am not closing my VIX and UVXY trades just now.

Evaluate his trading pointers in real time like I do or STFU.

who the f*** cares of what you said? You proved countless times your stupidity so what you think is totally irrelevant. When will you idiots finally realize that this thread is about MA and his bs forecasts, not about you and your bs forecasts, get it?