Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[Lafu]

The saying is: The DFB Pokal has is own rules. But I think this time the teams of the 1st and 2nd Bundesliga have advantages because of the pandemic. Most of the clubs in the Bundesliga could train and play during the last month. The teams from the 3rd Bundesliga and below were partly not allowed to train because the country did not allow it.

The DFB Pokal has his own rules for sure , and i guess it hasnt to say anything that they was not allowed to train and that the Teams from the 3rd League have no chance.
i believe this is an incentive that they maybe have a chance for can surprise us , because now they can play again .
For sure the big teams will be not struggle against them but maybe a few will , but we will see that !

[Darkoth89]

Do you think that this will really be an deciding factor for the smaller teams?

I think this will make a huge difference, yes, but I am not saying that every HC will get beat For these small teams, their own ground is their living room. They probably go there by bike, have some fun with their teammates, a beer after practice/game; it's a very comfortable environment for them. In such a big game, they have friends and family by their side and it's overall a big party in these often small towns/villages. All this is gone with forfeiting home advantage and going on a an away trip.

And the difference is also for the teams that now have home advantage, which works in their favour They don't have to deal with all the things, that make these small teams often times very competitive on that given day.

Good point. I haven't really seen it that way. But it would be foolish for all the bigger team that got home advantage now to just think that the smaller teams aren't competitive anymore.

I always had the feeling that all the amateur players are motivated down to the tips of their hair for having the chance to play against a Bayern, Dormund etc. All these other factors like playing on their homeground etc. might also have an impact but it is this motivation that makes them really dangerous (for all favorites). When players are giving 200% against a team that maybe only gives 80% (because they think they'll win anyway against a lower tier team) "miracles" can happen. A good example for that is Daniel Batz, the goalkeeper of Saarbrücken. He managed to made five penalty saves in the DFB Pokal match against Düsseldorf last season. 

[tyKiwanuka]

But it would be foolish for all the bigger team that got home advantage now to just think that the smaller teams aren't competitive anymore.

They are still competitive, but way less under these circumstances imo. And if this is not priced in, then the HC's on the favs should carry some value.

I always had the feeling that all the amateur players are motivated down to the tips of their hair for having the chance to play against a Bayern, Dormund etc. All these other factors like playing on their homeground etc. might also have an impact but it is this motivation that makes them really dangerous (for all favorites).

I think motivation has different layers. Your point is correct, but not the whole story about what motivates athletes imo. Are you more motivated when playing in an empty or packed stadium with great atmosphere ? This is also about getting attention and immediate feedback, every player wants to be the hero and score a nice goal, make a nice tackling with fans going crazy etc. Or you just want to silence the crowd in an away game Fans (and other things) motivate a lot - just playing against Bayern, Dortmund etc. is maybe just 50% of what a 100% motivation is.

[Darkoth89]

I think motivation has different layers. Your point is correct, but not the whole story about what motivates athletes imo. Are you more motivated when playing in an empty or packed stadium with great atmosphere ? This is also about getting attention and immediate feedback, every player wants to be the hero and score a nice goal, make a nice tackling with fans going crazy etc. Or you just want to silence the crowd in an away game Fans (and other things) motivate a lot - just playing against Bayern, Dortmund etc. is maybe just 50% of what a 100% motivation is.

Sure, without the fans in the stadium the players won't get that instant feedback for their actions. But as I said a full stadium could also be an intimidating factor for someone who is used to play on a small pitch in their town. And despite our discussion here, I am sure we will see some interesting matches in the first round and I am sure, the one or other bigger club will have a hard time with the underdog.


It seems like Schalke will play now against Türkgücü Munich and not against Schweinfurt because of a court ruling. I still don't quite understand what happened there, but Türkgücü could become an unpleasant opponent for Schalke. At the beginning of the pre-season test matches, Schalke lost both against Verl and KFC Uerdingen, 2 teams from the third Bundesliga.

E: Okay, seems the Schalke - Türkgücü / Schweinfurt match just got cancelled by the DFB.

[Lafu]

It seems like Schalke will play now against Türkgücü Munich and not against Schweinfurt because of a court ruling. I still don't quite understand what happened there,

Yeah i just heard it at the radio and the Schalke match is cancelled !

Just found something on the Schalke page about and translated it.

Reason for the dispute:
When the Bavarian Football Association (BFV) decided to continue the season in September, Türkgücü was the leader of the League.
During the Corona break the BFV finally declared the Munich team to get up to the 3rd division early and took them out of the ranking.
The result in the End: Schweinfurt formerly second in the League became the first place , at the time of the registration deadline , the best Bavarian amateur team in the opinion of the BFV and therefore it should be the Schweinfurt team for the DFB Cup. Türkgücü Munich has fighted this on the court with success.

Source : https://www.kicker.de/landgericht-entscheidet-schalke-spielt-doch-nicht-gegen-schweinfurt-784419/artikel

[tyz]

It is not the league, but the first round of German cup started yesterday. In the first match (Hertha Berlin vs. Braunschweig) there was a surprise right away. Braunschweig threw Berlin out of the cup. Whoever would have bet on a Braunschweig victory would have had 7.23 odds. An embarrassing defeat for a team that has about 120 million Euro more available this season through investors and whose goal is to qualify for the Champions League.

[Renampun]

I'm curious about how Leverkusen will perform after Havertz moved to my favorite blue team...
I read some predictions from football experts where it will hurt Leverkusen, but the money that Chelsea offers is not small so it's not easy for Leverkusen to keep Havertz there.

[Darkoth89]

It is not the league, but the first round of German cup started yesterday. In the first match (Hertha Berlin vs. Braunschweig) there was a surprise right away. Braunschweig threw Berlin out of the cup. Whoever would have bet on a Braunschweig victory would have had 7.23 odds. An embarrassing defeat for a team that has about 120 million Euro more available this season through investors and whose goal is to qualify for the Champions League.

Well @tyKiwanuka (almost) called it. Herthas defense looked really shaky yesterday. Stark and Rekik both didn't have their best day to say the least and I am sure Boyata and Torunarigha would've shown a better performance. Nor did Schwolow really look like the reliable backing that everyone had hoped for in him.

But I still think that Hertha can play a good role in the Bundesliga this season. The (new) players just need some time to really form a team. And even though a lot of people only see Labbadia as some kind of "fireman" which you only hire when you are in risk of relegation, I think he is a coach who can lead Hertha into the Europa League. His work in Wolfsburg was pretty impressive in that regard.

[Lafu]

I also think that Hertha Berlin will be playing better in the League when its starting .
As written before the Cup have is own rules and playing .

Also Nürnberg lost there match today against Leipzig , Gladbach has scored the most goals today against Oberneuland with 8 Goals.

In a few min the Match Bremen vs Jena starting and dont know what we will see there .

[cygan]

today there were no big surprises in the dfb-cup games on saturday - the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0
tomorrow we continue with several duels david against goliath

[Darkoth89]

today there were no big surprises in the dfb-cup games on saturday - the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0
tomorrow we continue with several duels david against goliath

Hmm, wouldn't really agree on that. Ulm managed to kick out Erzgebirge Aue. I know Aue isn't really that shiny or famous but when a club from the fourth League (Regionalliga Southwest) beats a team from the second Bundesliga, it's definitely surprising imo. Besides that, the favourites managed to move to the next round in the other matched. But Frankfurt, Union Berlin, Düsseldorf and Osnabrück all had their difficulties.

[Lafu]

the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0

Glad to hear and read that Werder Bremen managed there game and won this match.
And as Darkoth89 has written there was some surprise even the teams have not won but a few has played very well and they only got no luck win.
Excited about todays matches and maybe we see some surprise again.

[tyKiwanuka]

But Frankfurt, Union Berlin, Düsseldorf and Osnabrück all had their difficulties.

Yep, but Berlin/Düsseldorf only played teams from one division lower and Frankfurt/Osnabrück had real away games. The Bundesliga teams that had home games did very well:

Köln -2.5 (~2.10)
Wolfsburg -3.5 (~1.80)
Mainz -2.5 (~1.90)
Gladbach -3.5 (~1.80)
Augsburg -3.5 (~1.90)

6-0
4-1
5-1
8-0
7-0

The 2. Bundesliga teams had a harder time:

Bochum -3 (~1.80)
Fürth -2.5 (~1.90)

3-0
1-1 (6-1 after ET)

For today there are still 2 matches left, where home advantage did change:

Leverkusen -3.5 (~1.80)
Kiel -2.5 (~1.80)

So I probably won't touch Kiel. Leverkusen still looks good from what we witnessed yesterday, but I don't like the expected line-up from them and they are a team that often struggles against inferior opposition. Maybe better for inplay and play some HC during second half, when Norderstedt players are getting tired.


All in all there are more interesting matches today and I expect more drama, extra times etc. Elversberg - St. Pauli, Rostock - Stuttgart, K'lautern - Regensburg, Magdeburg - Darmstadt, Mannheim-Freiburg, Wehen- Heidenheim all look to be close ones. Should be an exciting afternoon/evening

[tyz]

today there were no big surprises in the dfb-cup games on saturday - the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0
tomorrow we continue with several duels david against goliath

I agree. I think that there will be no big surprises, although this is of course never impossible. I think if there can be a surprise, then it will be at Waldhof Mannheim vs Freiburg. It is a derby game. For fun I have placed a small bet on double chance Mannheim, at odds of 3.91. Let's see if it works.
Otherwise the first and second round of the DFB-Cup are always perfect to bet on the number of goals, for example Chemnitz vs Hoffenheim 4.5+ goals at 2.6 could be a good opportunity.

[Darkoth89]

So I probably won't touch Kiel. Leverkusen still looks good from what we witnessed yesterday, but I don't like the expected line-up from them and they are a team that often struggles against inferior opposition. Maybe better for inplay and play some HC during second half, when Norderstedt players are getting tired.

Will Schick be playing for them already? Leverkusen lost some of their key players in their offense with Havertz and Volland. And so far they haven't been really that active on the transfer market to replace them. It will be interesting to see in today's match how they are able to compensate that loss of quality. Sure, Norderstedt shouldn't be a problem for them at all but I don't see them steamrolling them like Gladbach, Augsburg or Köln did in their matches.

E: Okay, I guess I was wrong   That's going to be a long afternoon for Norderstedt.
 

I agree. I think that there will be no big surprises, although this is of course never impossible. I think if there can be a surprise, then it will be at Waldhof Mannheim vs Freiburg. It is a derby game. For fun I have placed a small bet on double chance Mannheim, at odds of 3.91. Let's see if it works.
Otherwise the first and second round of the DFB-Cup are always perfect to bet on the number of goals, for example Chemnitz vs Hoffenheim 4.5+ goals at 2.6 could be a good opportunity.

Waldhof Mannheim has two positive COVID19 cases in their team: 1 player and 1 person from the staff. Furthermore 2 players who had contact with them were also told to go into a 2-week quarantine. Does anyone know which are the 3 players that won't be able to play tonight? If these are all from their starting eleven that could make it even harder for them.

[tyKiwanuka]

E: Okay, I guess I was wrong   That's going to be a long afternoon for Norderstedt.

Hehe, yes, 6-0 already, this is always a bit annoying, when you are waiting for good odds inplay but what can you do, there will be other opportunities. Kiel is also steamrolling Rielasingen after being down 0-1 early. St. Pauli already in huge trouble as expected, they won't make it into next round I guess, just a poor cup team somehow.

[Darkoth89]

As expected, Freiburg with problems against Mannheim. Mainly because they didn't use their chances in the first half but after the half time break and especially after them leveling the score, you have to admit Mannheim was at least equally strong. But it's not really surprising to see Freiburg struggeling against weaker (on paper) teams.

For tomorrow I am probably looking forward the most to the match Dresden - HSV. Gonna be interesting to see how the new coach in Hamburg is doing (especially as a Werder fan  ).

[Lafu]

Looks like Hoffenheim have got some luck against Chemnitz as they just won after the penalty shootout with 3 to 2 !
Another penalty shootout was in the game Kaiserslautern vs Regensburg and this match won Regensburg with 4 to 3.
Heidenheim lost there match , dont have expected that .

[tyz]

Waldhof Mannheim has two positive COVID19 cases in their team: 1 player and 1 person from the staff. Furthermore 2 players who had contact with them were also told to go into a 2-week quarantine. Does anyone know which are the 3 players that won't be able to play tonight? If these are all from their starting eleven that could make it even harder for them.

Don't know the names but it seems they weren't regular players because the match was as expected. Very competitive and the final result was very close. Freiburg won 1-2. In the final match phase Mannheim even had the chance to equalize.

today there were no big surprises in the dfb-cup games on saturday - the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0
tomorrow we continue with several duels david against goliath

Overall, we have had only two big surprises in the first round yet. The elimination of Hertha Berlin and St. Pauli.

[Lafu]

34 Minutes over now in the Game between Dortmund and Duisburg and the Dortmund already has scored 2 Goals !
But Duisburg isnt hiding and also have there chances but i guess in the second half they will run out of energie.
Or maybe we will see them pushing , fingers crossed that Dormund will win that .