Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[octaft]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

[merkin51]

I've been regularly buying little bits here and there on the way down these last few months, but I'm going to stop and just HODL what I have now... sure I could sell up and wait, but I'm happy to sit with what I have on the off chance of a genuine reversal out of nowhere. At least stopping buying is some kind of protection against further loses, right?

Absolutely no one has a fucking clue what is going on now. The great Chinese masterplan is either boom or bust. I have to hold my hands up to them, they have the entire market at their mercy.

[el_rlee]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

Yeah, so now we get the interaction of 3 factors.

First factor - non-chinese traders using Houbi for the zero-fee trading. These traders will stay assuming Houbi stays open. If liquidity gets too low, they will probably move to another exchange.

Second factor - Chinese that want to keep their bitcoin. These will buy to transfer off exchange. Most of these probably have already bought, or will try to buy real low.

Third factor - Chinese that want to withdraw and exit the game before deadline. These will cause price to continue to drop until May 10th.

So, if you want to be a fool and believe, like Chessnut does, that these factors can only mean the price goes higher, buy now!

But, if you a rational human being, you'll realize that this is bearish news. 2100 will be retested and probably destroyed.

The market in China is still in denial.

Remember how long Gox took to die after BTC and fiat withdrawals were halted? This will not be over so soon.
Maybe we will even see the price skyrocketing if fiat withdrawals are halted as well and BTC is the only way out?

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

lol windjc will be following my trades to the contrary. he said so. I told him to buy at 425 (so he sold  ). we will see who is buthurt soon enough.

What are you talking about? I said I made 70k in the last 3 weeks doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people to do. But I don't give a crap what you do. I trade my own book.

You really aren't that important to me, despite what delusions of grandeur you may have.

[T.Stuart]

Remember how long Gox took to die ...

Gox dead? Not quite yet I'm afraid!

[prophetx]

I just found this item:
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/darkmarket/

Slightly bullish for adoption if someone really takes off with it.  A more secure Silk Road.

Isn't this the DarkCoin promoted market?

From what I think I understand, it is coded by the same guy (group?) but he let it go in the wild.  On github now.

this is part of the dark wallet thing from what i recall

[octaft]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

lol windjc will be following my trades to the contrary. he said so. I told him to buy at 425 (so he sold  ). we will see who is buthurt soon enough.

Yeah I don't care about the dick-swinging contest you two are having, I'm just pointing out that your assumptions about the bet were incorrect based on my recall of the situation. I'd also add that assuming someone who thinks their side of the bet is an absolute lock wants 7:1 and immediately offering them that would be incredibly stupid in windjc's position. The guy is talking as if there is no doubt in his mind he will win, why the hell would you offer someone talking like that odds? Of course, rpietila needed an out, because, as he readily admitted himself, he was nowhere near certain that it would not drop below 435.

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

lol windjc will be following my trades to the contrary. he said so. I told him to buy at 425 (so he sold  ). we will see who is buthurt soon enough.

What are you talking about? I said I made 70k in the last 3 weeks doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people to do. But I don't give a crap what you do. I trade my own book.

You really aren't that important to me, despite what delusions of grandeur you may have.

oh my, I culd quite embarass you her windjc, would you like me to find the detailed quote?
you said yourself that you will be selling when I told you to at 425....
nobody is going to believe that shit, you made a loss and I can prove it.  

You are truly an idiot. I posted screenshots of my shorts, you tool.

No one here thinks I shorted at 425 because of something you said. Jesus christ dude, shut the f*** up.

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

lol windjc will be following my trades to the contrary. he said so. I told him to buy at 425 (so he sold  ). we will see who is buthurt soon enough.

What are you talking about? I said I made 70k in the last 3 weeks doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people to do. But I don't give a crap what you do. I trade my own book.

You really aren't that important to me, despite what delusions of grandeur you may have.

oh my, I culd quite embarass you her windjc, would you like me to find the detailed quote?
you said yourself that you will be selling when I told you to at 425....
nobody is going to believe that shit, you made a loss and I can prove it.  

You are truly an idiot. I posted screenshots of my shorts, you tool.

No one here thinks I shorted at 425 because of something you said. Jesus christ dude, shut the f*** up.

but they might think you shorted beause of somthing YOU said  . dont be so angry! did I hit a nerve? dont worry Ill find the quote brb.

I took out a small short position above 430. I could have sold it for a quick profit, but I was doing something else at the computer and it really wasn't worth it for me to skim (guess I have greedier targets), so I held it, because I believe 430 isn't going to be the bottom. So I will wait and see how far up we recover (if we recover at all). Then I will mostly likely dollar cost average my shorts and then cover when we are back under 430.  And if we get overbought I will load the boat and ride it gloriously on the way down.

If we go straight to the moon from here, as you predict every day with your sophisticated EW analysis that is always never wrong, then I will sell for a loss and make it up later.

[simmo77]

Meanwhile... back at the ranch...


Is this a bulltrap forming or

[windjc]

Wall at 440 isnt lasting long. lol

[dreamspark]

Meanwhile... back at the ranch...


Is this a bulltrap forming or

Maybe, I'd leave it a short while to say for sure but the bids arent really filling in.

[xulescu]

Meanwhile... back at the ranch...


Is this a bulltrap forming or

Seems like... it's actually Stamp and BFX that are pushing..?  

EDIT: looks like BFX is retiring some shorts, but nothing really happens.
http://charts-bfxdata.rhcloud.com/bitfinexLiquidityPriceCombinedBTC.php

[windjc]

450 bid btc wall gone in minutes. During a rally!

[windjc]

Haha see. it's true!

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.

oh in the last week? you mean selling at 475 and rebuying higher? do you mean buying at 485 after the news? and now you are short from 430?

 
 40k indeed!

Ignored.

[pandacoin]

What kind of poll is this? Any answer can fit to me. Precious metals doesn't have value for me. I only invest in Bitcoin and Litecoin. They are like gold-silver to me.

Rpietila said 403$ could be seen. I hope it will turn back up from that point at least.

[y3804]

450 bid btc wall gone in minutes. During a rally!

The 1m chart clearly shows that the rally has failed (there has been an attempt)

[windjc]

450 bid btc wall gone in minutes. During a rally!

The 1m chart clearly shows that the rally has failed (there has been an attempt)

I considered selling into that entire wall myself. But I don't trust Houbi right now. I think it could rally to 2800.

[flynn]

weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.