Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

*sniff*  *sniff*   something in the air..

I think that it is overcooked bear, perhaps?   

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[Searing]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

I retired (could retire w/o cryto hoard...but when BTC hit 10k ...as a backstop I am trying never to use..I was like out of excuses).

Anyway, retired 1/14/18 and it is now 2/17/18....

and you have pretty much nailed this first month at least........

then again, hard to do 'projects on the house' when you are mining scrypt-pow yet...and keep tripping over stuff that makes you some coin (garlicoin as an example...gotta love
them knc titans and scrypt-n)

so yeah, it is pretty much 'loaf city' till I start to make less money, mucking with real world house fix stuff..then maybe, I can take a vacation and/or work on the house

(then again it is winter and cold as f*ck outside also)

So yeah, you pretty much 'nailed it'

gonna have to work on how to 'structure' my 'leisure time' .....besides crypto

brad

[JayJuanGee]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Yes, these days without a big pullback have left me with several bids that are being left in the dust. Oh well, each bid only represents about 1% of my holdings, so overall the 99% of my holdings are looking better. I won't be inventing any drinking games though, to celebrate. I have been on the wagon since 2009.

Ultimately, you have to be prepared for the possibility that your buy orders will get left behind forever and ever, and that you are mostly emotionally neutral to the scenario that they get left behind forever and ever.  

If you are not mostly emotional neutral that your buy orders get left behind forever and ever, then you likely are "playing" (trading) with too large amounts, and you need to reduce your amounts until they reach such a level that you are largely emotionally neutral about them getting left behind forever and ever.

The reality of the matter is that in a large number of cases, your buy orders are not going to get left behind forever and ever, but you should not care nor think too much about it...  

By the way, recall that the first time around on the way up from $890 to $19,666 (that took about 9 months to play out), seems like we had a fewer than 5 retracements that were 27% or greater, and I believe that the maximum retracement was 40%-ish in mid-September from $4,980 to $2,970.  So under that actual real life application, there were a lot of folks who left a lot of buy orders on the table on the way up - however, there are ways to deal with such including from time to time, the increments and the amounts of those left behind buy orders can be shuffled around in order to make them much more profitable in the event that a downturn comes and, especially during what ended up being our 70% retracement from $19,666 to $5,921.  And, also, sometimes you can decide to use some of that money and just completely take it off the table in a practice that Rptiella had referred to as "raking" in his SSS thread.

[rolling]

Korea is leading this thing again as they did during the entire run up to 19666. That is a good sign. There are no trading games to be had when there is real demand for a finite resource.

[HairyMaclairy]

Purple line is shorts on BfX.  Squish squish squelch.

[HairyMaclairy]

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

We did talk about this.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG..I see your chart and raise you sir.

Yeah, you raised me into a near total state of bewilderment in my attempt to understand what your chart means in terms of Bitcoin price discussion and analysis, and what is the significance of the bear warning?

Seems to me that we got's ourselves no bears hanging around in these here territories.. They all be hiding under the cupboards, but surely they will be back to spread a little naysaying bear doo doo as soon at there is any kind of sign of this bad boy slowing down.  When?  I have hardly any clue, as usual, but looking good to me, and looking really good.

[PestoQuinty]

It will be interesting to see when people start utilizing their TDAs, Cestui Que Vie/status correction procedures, and start pouring that infinite fiat into BTC.
Anyone ever thought about this? Maybe that is the thing behind this tether conspiracy.

[JayJuanGee]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

Using the numbers above, even should there be no volatility to be harvested (as if), I'm good through 2022.

Hahahahahaha.. jbreher... I don't mean to pick on you or to be stalking you, too much, but are you confessing that you are gonna run out of BTC if BTC prices were to go straight up to $1.28 million?   

I could not really blame you for running out of BTC in that kind of a scenario because seems that no matter what there are going to be some price corrections along the way.. there is almost no such thing as straight up, even going up 5x without a significant price correction wold be quite amazing, but going up from here to $1.28 million would be more than 110x, and surely there would be several pretty decently-sized price corrections in there to help any of us incrementalists to stack up our holdings in order to prepare for BTC price destinations higher than $1.28 million.

[suchmoon]

Lots of action around 11k again.


Edited 2020-11-29 to fix a broken image

[Neo_Coin]

[FartBuddy]

Lots of action around 11k again.

It took a few days to decisively get above $10k, it could take a few more to decisively get above $11k.

[smartcomet]

Recommend an awesome book about dot.com bubble: "Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004"

Kevin
Definitely a must read for investors
April 10, 2013

This book is not a technical read in any way. Instead, this book is written as various anecdotes, beginning from the fifties to the present day. Mahar tells the story of various influential people in the industry as well as families and the average man experiencing various aspects of a financial cycle (bear and bull markets) and how they acted and why they did what they did.

She outlines various causes of bull markets and bear markets. She analyzes investor behaviors in each part of the cycle and outlines some eery commonalities between the various events.

I believe that this book is well worth the money because it teaches you some things to look for in both bull and bear markets. She gives the names of people who strategically position themselves out of the wall street mentality and give their honest sell and buy recommendations when the market is under or over valued. I think for the few dollars you spend on this book, you might save a lot more money timing your buys and sells based on what Mahar says in this book.

I didn't give this a 5 star rating because I didn't think it was a 5 star book in my opinion.

However, I still believe its a must read book to gain some more investing knowledge.

[Toxic2040]

Yeah, you raised me into a near total state of bewilderment in my attempt to understand what your chart means in terms of Bitcoin price discussion and analysis, and what is the significance of the bear warning?

Seems to me that we got's ourselves no bears hanging around in these here territories.. They all be hiding under the cupboards, but surely they will be back to spread a little naysaying bear doo doo as soon at there is any kind of sign of this bad boy slowing down.  When?  I have hardly any clue, as usual, but looking good to me, and looking really good.

Confusion can be a nice broth to stew ones brain in on occasion...but I dare not chance damaging you so I will relent. The bear sign was to announce jbreher of course...should be pretty simple there...maybe a touch melodramatic...but effective none the less. It was but a jest in reality.

The other is much more significant if you care to delve into it. As hype about innovation crests over the peak on it move towards the productivity plateau you can clearly see where we are at with blockchains. The hype about bitcoin arriving is past us now..heading towards that plateau ahead of us in the future. But look what is trailing..how many of these upcoming innovations will need bitcoin and the blockchain to fully realize their potentials? A great many I say..all those next gen apps that we are just now dreaming up use cases for. Whether it be peer to peer decentralized immutable ledgers like bitcoin or permissioned one used for controlling autonomous vehicles lets say. The shear amount of "things" that will benefit from this literally boggles my mind man...

[pleaseexplain]

Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders. 

Go Bitcoin Go!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043

this chart is great. it shows lots of things but mainly the benefits of not selling and even if you buy at a 'worst possible time"  it all comes right
eg if you only got into bitcoin at the height of the goxxing and spent $5,000 at a $1000 price it would have given you 5 bitcoins. It would take about 3.5 years for the price to recover to that point and another 0.5 years for it to be at $10,000.

 ie your $5000 has in 4 years become $50,000 or the equivalent of an 80% annual compounding interest rate if the money was in the bank and during that period the banks would have only given you say a 3% compounding rate. No wonder they are scared.
It makes it a "no brainer" that for all - big and small- that you have at least some of your savings in bitcoin.

Is my arithmetic reasonably accurate?

[somac.]

Damn good to see bitcoin making up some ground vs the alts. I'll be much happier when it is around 50% and bitcoin is at 50k  

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I'll just leave this here.

[JayJuanGee]

The other is much more significant if you care to delve into it. As hype about innovation crests over the peak on it move towards the productivity plateau you can clearly see where we are at with blockchains. The hype about bitcoin arriving is past us now..heading towards that plateau ahead of us in the future. But look what is trailing..how many of these upcoming innovations will need bitcoin and the blockchain to fully realize their potentials? A great many I say..all those next gen apps that we are just now dreaming up use cases for. Whether it be peer to peer decentralized immutable ledgers like bitcoin or permissioned one used for controlling autonomous vehicles lets say. The shear amount of "things" that will benefit from this literally boggles my mind man...

Woops, my bad!!!!   In part, hey if I would have seen "Blockchain" on the first glance at the chart on the other side of the hype peak, I might have rebelled a bit more strongly.. and called your the bear...  

Anyhow, whatever the various relationships between technologies, there is going to be symbism between them and they are going to likely feed off of each other in various ways that cannot be predicted with any kind of precision regarding possible winners or losers, including attempting to determine where they are at, exactly, in their own hype curve.

Yeah, there is going to be hype and over hype and under-appreciation of various technologies and their contributions to society and their potentials, but clumping bitcoin in  with "blockchain" and then trying to clump it in with various other technological innovations misses A BIG CHUNK of something that is differentiating about bitcoin specifically in the way that bitcoin is a decentralized system that has NEVER  ever been seen by the world.  That is called paradigm shifting in such a way that various other technologies are going to be playing off of bitcoin - and not really the other way around because bitcoin also has been bred with a honey badger, and does not give a fuck.

Anyhow, before I have an aneurysm, as you implied to be within the realm of possible reasons why you were holding back on my delicate nature a little bit, I will yield for a moment in the event that I may not need to rant any more on this point.. that bitcoin and blockchain are not the same thing.....



HELLLOOO
OOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!









o.k.. couldn't help myself..

I'm good..



I'm good.

[Toxic2040]

You drunk fuck..have another.   

I clearly spoke of each..well..I clearly implied something about each but I think you misunderstood me. That chart is not a financial graph..its purely about excitement over time. You could say that there is apparent correlation between hype and price but that really wasn't where I was going. Its about when something becomes popular and how long after that fact something useful is developed. I was using the example between the two charts to illustrate how early we really are...still. As far as bitcoin and blockchain..what ever..I get that..they are different. You can yell at me louder if you wish if thats what you want to do tho...

[jbreher]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

Using the numbers above, even should there be no volatility to be harvested (as if), I'm good through 2022.

Hahahahahaha.. jbreher... I don't mean to pick on you or to be stalking you, too much, but are you confessing that you are gonna run out of BTC if BTC prices were to go straight up to $1.28 million?    

I could not really blame you for running out of BTC in that kind of a scenario because seems that no matter what there are going to be some price corrections along the way.. there is almost no such thing as straight up, even going up 5x without a significant price correction wold be quite amazing, but going up from here to $1.28 million would be more than 110x, and surely there would be several pretty decently-sized price corrections in there to help any of us incrementalists to stack up our holdings in order to prepare for BTC price destinations higher than $1.28 million.

Re-read. Through 2022.