Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Just remember that in early 14 the consensus was that it would never go below the flash $380ish bottom of late December 13, (proportionally to the recent high roughly $6000 today). We went below it in April 14 and it was broken properly in 3Q14 eventually hitting a bottom at $160ish (2.5k proportionally to the recent high) and didn't get back above it until 2016 rolled in.

Never say never.

Don't be fucking goofie.. because I doubt that very many posters are asserting "never" here, but I think that many of us are asserting that the odds are much greater that we are in an early 2013 type scenario rather than in an early 2014 type scenario... ... so yeah, sure as fucking hell we could end up being in an early 2014 type scenario right now, but merely because something is likely, it is much fucking more prudent to be planning on what seems to be the more likely scenario rather than the less likely scenario...
 
On the other hand, if BTC prices go below $6k and stay there for a considerable time, or some other facts change, then yeah, at that point, it becomes more likely that we had been in an early 2014 like scenario rather than an early 2013 like scenario.. but it remains way too premature to be calling the more bearish scenario as if it were the more likely scenario when it currently remains the less likely scenario that probably every fucking one of us concedes is within the realm of possibilities, even though some folks are prematurely attempting to call the less likely scenario as if it were the more likely scenario,which also comes off as FUD spreading rather than attempting a realistic discussion.

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[Last of the V8s]

... if 10k doesn't hold we'll probably go back and test 5k support ... or maybe lower like 2500 area needs some backing and filling also

it'll be cathartic if we dive that low ... like a whale diving to get rid of all the parasites ... btc has sure built up it's fair share of those during this last run ... alts, ICOS, "blockchain" charlatans and straight out conartists are everywhere

have always wanted this, specifically to purge the fractional reserve 'exchanges' and Bitpay, coinbase, b.info etcetera x3

FYI it isn't only parasites losing their shirts. These are the people we were supposed to be adopting.

woops i let my ideology show for a sec. i try not to have those discussions itt

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

... if 10k doesn't hold we'll probably go back and test 5k support ... or maybe lower like 2500 area needs some backing and filling also

it'll be cathartic if we dive that low ... like a whale diving to get rid of all the parasites ... btc has sure built up it's fair share of those during this last run ... alts, ICOS, "blockchain" charlatans and straight out conartists are everywhere

have always wanted this, specifically to purge the fractional reserve 'exchanges' and Bitpay, coinbase, b.info etcetera x3

FYI it isn't only parasites losing their shirts. These are the people we were supposed to be adopting.

woops i let my ideology show for a sec. i try not to have those discussions itt

MoA has become a monster. I expect more from you.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Sounding that sure, I guess you guys sold all your coins @ 11.9k and buy back @ 3k right?

From where are you getting the impression that guys are "sure"?  We seem to be batting around scenarios, and some of those scenarios don't even come to play unless $10k breaks, which has not happened yet... and when we were at $11,500+, there was not even any kind of certainty that we were going to be coming back down, because at that time, we could have broken further UP, too..

I'm sure that there are some folks that are playing BIG and guessing correctly, and maybe TERA2 is going to come back in here and tell us how she played it all correctly and how now it is going down to lower points, that she had already set herself up for such play.. maybe she speaks truth and maybe she is just bullshitting, even if the waves end up playing fairly close to her early outline of what was going to happen (but still does not mean that she can foresee the future - even if the outlined scenario ended up coming out largely correct).

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[edited out]

I think sub $10,000 is obviously possible. All the way down to $2,500 though? Near impossible for me buddy, too many people would be having a feast on coins valued at around $4000 - $5000.

I think that you and I are largely on the same page (or at least in a similar part of the chapter), if not based on close but slightly differing rational... I did edit my earlier post that you quoted and add a bit of language based on subsequent posts that I read after my initial response to you.

What’s your plan personally JJG?
I bought mainly between $400 - $600 back in 2014. I’ve sold a few but HODL a pretty healthy stash in cold storage. I plan to get out 75% or so if/when we hit $50,000 or so. I didn’t get into this game to have a ‘normal’ house & lifestyle. I could have cashed everything out at $19,000 & made 35 x my total investment but I see this beast growing & I don’t want to regret not getting rich.

[Last of the V8s]

... if 10k doesn't hold we'll probably go back and test 5k support ... or maybe lower like 2500 area needs some backing and filling also

it'll be cathartic if we dive that low ... like a whale diving to get rid of all the parasites ... btc has sure built up it's fair share of those during this last run ... alts, ICOS, "blockchain" charlatans and straight out conartists are everywhere

have always wanted this, specifically to purge the fractional reserve 'exchanges' and Bitpay, coinbase, b.info etcetera x3

FYI it isn't only parasites losing their shirts. These are the people we were supposed to be adopting.

woops i let my ideology show for a sec. i try not to have those discussions itt

MoA has become a monster. I expect more from you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood,_toil,_tears,_and_sweat edited to add: is all you can expect from bitcoin sorry
edit oo i like Garibaldi "I offer hunger, thirst, forced marches, battle, and death." expect this lol

[svdleer]

Hmm maybe nothing but CME futures last trade day is 23th feb, settlement on 28th

[UnDerDoG81]

[edited out]

Sounding that sure, I guess you guys sold all your coins @ 11.9k and buy back @ 3k right?

From where are you getting the impression that guys are "sure"?  We seem to be batting around scenarios, and some of those scenarios don't even come to play unless $10k breaks, which has not happened yet... and when we were at $11,500+, there was not even any kind of certainty that we were going to be coming back down, because at that time, we could have broken further UP, too..

I'm sure that there are some folks that are playing BIG and guessing correctly, and maybe TERA2 is going to come back in here and tell us how she played it all correctly and how now it is going down to lower points, that she had already set herself up for such play.. maybe she speaks truth and maybe she is just bullshitting, even if the waves end up playing fairly close to her early outline of what was going to happen (but still does not mean that she can foresee the future - even if the outlined scenario ended up coming out largely correct).

From this

MOA is a very reasonable poster

As the bull market started in November 17, I saw the similar patterns to 2014. Posted a few times here that it will end like the MtGox desaster but earned "this time is different" posts. I am a long time holder since 2013 and it felt like the time is right to sell. But had no balls to sell at 19k.

Maybe I wrote that first post just out of frustration. I have no idea where we are heading to. But it really feels like 2014 again. And seeing 2.5k would hurt damn much. I am pretty doubtfull it would recover from there ever again.

Question is, sell now and be happy with what you have or just go full risk and wait until end 2018 or 2019 :/

[Torque]

LOL. Mempool almost empty again. What a time to be alive.

Up yours, BCash fucktards !!! Tongue my fartbox !

They just will never get it. Hell, I think some Bitcoin maximalists will never get it either.

Bitcoin is not being bought by Average Joe to be spent. Period. The non-existent mempool proves this.

It's being bought as a deflationary hedge against the the fiat monetary system, like digital Gold. It's being held. The fact that it can be spent directly with some merchants online is just a bonus (something that can't be done with PMs).

Average Joe is not even spending his hard earned fiat right now (as witnessed by the deflationary environment we are in globally). He's trying to save money for the future. He's probably also desperately trying to pay down debt. So why in the hell would he go through the hassle and fees of buying Bitcoin just to turn around and spent it? A: He isn't and he won't. He's hodling it.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think sub $10,000 is obviously possible. All the way down to $2,500 though? Near impossible for me buddy, too many people would be having a feast on coins valued at around $4000 - $5000.

I think that you and I are largely on the same page (or at least in a similar part of the chapter), if not based on close but slightly differing rational... I did edit my earlier post that you quoted and add a bit of language based on subsequent posts that I read after my initial response to you.

What’s your plan personally JJG?
I bought mainly between $400 - $600 back in 2014. I’ve sold a few but HODL a pretty healthy stash in cold storage. I plan to get out 75% or so if/when we hit $50,000 or so. I didn’t get into this game to have a ‘normal’ house & lifestyle. I could have cashed everything out at $19,000 & made 35 x my total investment but I see this beast growing & I don’t want to regret not getting rich.

There are quite a few guys (and gal) here that are likely sick of hearing my personal BTC related plan because it really does not change too much, even if I come out with some strong assertions regarding my anticipated market directions that I believe to be more likely than others. 

I already concede that I could be wrong and on an ongoing basis, and I prepare and re-prepare for BTC prices in both directions.. it's an ongoing approach and tweaking of mine.

So, it seems to me that my ongoing presumption is very much similar to yours - however the only thing that I seem to be doing that is different from you is that I have an ongoing strategy to continue to sell BTC in small amounts all the way up (about 1% selling for every 10% price rise) and to continue to buy all the way down (similar amounts), and just like you I presume that the chances of UP (especially in the long run) are pretty decent, but I don't want to put all my eggs into that UP-scenario basket... and that is part of the rationale for continuing to sell BTC all the way up..   Buying  on the way down is largely a way to attempt to make lemonade out of a kind of lemon set of circumstances... So sure, I don't really like it when BTC prices go down, but at the same time, it seems to be almost inevitable in BTClandia that we are going to get both UP and DOWN, and that seems to be one of the BIGGEST guarantees in bitcoin (aka volatility).  WE can probably bank on volatility more than we can bank on either UP or DOWN - even if we presume that UP is a bit more likely than DOWN.

In other words:  I probably would be too stressed with a BTC HODL only strategy, but certainly, I do not disagree with such buy and HODL strategy. 

At any point, it is possible that BTC prices will stagnate - and for example, BTC prices never go above $10k again, so in some sense we have to prepare for that scenario too.. or even a worse scenario, that BTC  prices go down to $1k and then hover between $1k and $3k and never go above $3k again... I personally believe that any below $20k scenarios in the next 5 years are the less likely scenarios, yet it still seems prudent to prepare for the possible happening of such negative scenarios (and we are in a better state of preparation if we are already 10x, 20x or 30x in profits).

Even if we believe that the above $20k in 5 years is the more likely scenario (even the more likely scenario is no where near inevitable and I only consider it as more likely rather than inevitable), we gotta be financially and psychologically prepared in the event that it does not happen.  Currently, I consider that $50k in 5 years has a pretty decent chance of happening, maybe in the 30-40% arena, and $50k has raised that far into the state of higher probabilities based on our recent outrageously bullish outcome going way past expectations into the $20k range, when previously $5k was the top of likely bullish scenarios (3x to 5x greater than expected price performance).  So $50k is possible in 5 years and even higher numbers are possible in that time frame or even shorter time frames, and surely we are sitting pretty even if our average price per BTC is in the $3k to $5k range, but of course, the lower our average cost per BTC, the more cushion we have for our level of comfort to feel better prepared psychologically and financially for a larger variety of scenarios.

[svdleer]

Only less then 400 BTC to go before we break 10K downwards.
it's going to happen now. sell power is too high.

Edit : broken 10K downwards in 2 seconds.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Question is, sell now and be happy with what you have or just go full risk and wait until end 2018 or 2019 :/

qft

[rafanadal]

And we are in the 9000s again  

fuck

[Dakustaking76]

So Whats going on guys? Can someone explain?

[SidETH]

<10k. Fuck.

[HairyMaclairy]

Go home badger you’re drunk

[Ibian]

So Whats going on guys? Can someone explain?

I'm making this months rent, is what's happening. Woo! Yes!

[svdleer]

So Whats going on guys? Can someone explain?

If i just knew...people keep saying futures (and of course manipulation...) is not the reason, but i think it's a real coincidence that about 1 day before last trade day of CME futures price get's dumped.

[mike4001]

3 weeks ago I wrote we will not see above 10k to 12k this year.

I think more and more that I might be wright ...

[SidETH]

3 weeks ago I wrote we will not see above 10k to 12k this year.

I think more and more that I might be wright ...

Then you were wrong already.