Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

The only way is down now
no chance we are reaching 8k for a very long time.

The way I see it, in this particular moment it's very hard to name a "no chance" event.

Merited. Wise words.  While catching up on this thread gradually you see how unwise and price prediction in any direction is, on any near/medium term time frame.

TA / price analysis is fun to see, but so much of it is as accurate as a stopped clock, as all we can do is to try to set up for whatever happens.  I was watching your 'short insurance' strategy, seemed to make sense - may I ask how it has panned out?  Or is it just too much work to keep on top of it?

Thanks for the appreciation.

My insurance is doing fine! With today's dip, I'm comfortably in the money. With the latest fluctuations, I'd already managed to nurse it to a higher entry point with incidental small profit. My aim isn't maximum profit, but maximum comfort, as JayJuanGee said. This makes it a little easier, but it's still hard work for me. Of course there's a different "hard work" threshold for each one of us. With the position moving to a higher entry point, the amount of work decreases.

However, if it doesn't hurt at times, I feel I'm doing it wrong. It's supposed to hurt a little now and then, unless you're magically able to spot either tops or bottoms (which would make hedging moot anyway).

I'm not closing it yet. Bring it down to 5k or 3k, will you? Please??  

I've also worked out a "pain threshold" in advance. That's where I'll close the insurance hedge (at a loss) before liquidation if I don't manage to close gradually on the way up while still in the money. The numbers are good: by the time we reach that threshold, it will be Carolina Train time around here.

That's just my play money, of course. If it was my stash at stake, I wouldn't be so detached or cool headed in making difficult decisions.

[1685664070]

1685664070

[1685664070]

1685664070

[Globb0]

Buy one, get four more free

Oh that is a shame, they finally have something in stock but its dud

[Jacques_Bittard]

Took about 10h longer then I thought, but rest is on the mark. Everyone who didn't sell on the weekend pump, are greedy little pigs and they get what they deserve.
Market movement was quite interesting though. Lowering volume, thin books, strong gravity for sideways. Maybe we are lucky and will see a truly deep drop this week.

[TERA2]

I did a search for 'Carolina Train' and found mostly images of train wrecks.

[tonyq]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

[kurious]

The argument for taint and title is strong
http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/Papers/making-bitcoin-legal.pdf

The authors don't detail much experimental evidence about their new taint model (basically FIFO accounting for taint), but they do offer a couple of numbers which, if supported by more testing, would be quite impressive. At any rate, there's ample food for thought.

If the legislative landscape they hint at really comes into being, I don't know where I'd stand on the line between "hard" and "soft" approaches. Bitcoin enthusiasts? Investors? Law enforcement? All of these positions would entail both "good" and "bad" practical consequences from my self-interested point of view.

Nice piece of work. Computer scientists discussing legal implications with a practical, technically sound background. A rarity.

Tasty find merited.

And where do you short, if you don't mind - if you don't want to say, it's fine. 

I am wondering about trying the same.  I'm pretty much all in, so cannot easily buy any more drops.  Insurance might keep me amused (or at least feeling less 'passive').  I just wondered, Finex or..?

[realr0ach]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

https://i62.servimg.com/u/f62/16/11/23/28/dump11.png

Why are you not intelligent enough to know the significance of what you posted?  The caption on your picture claims they took control of the market right when the CME opened their doors and then crashed it into the ground.  BZZZT WRONG ANSWER.  They did not magically gain control of the market when the CME that nobody even trades on opened.  They already controlled the market beforehand and were the ones who pumped it then dumped it in the first place.

They were on both sides of the trade.  While you were typing "bitcoin is the new internets of money!!111", they were typing "wow, these guys are fucking delusional idiots - the perfect targets to fleece".  Or perhaps you forgot people like (((Goldman Sachs))) were the main owners of things like the Ethereum IPO.

[tonyq]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

https://i62.servimg.com/u/f62/16/11/23/28/dump11.png

Why are you not intelligent enough to know the significance of what you posted?  The caption on your picture claims they took control of the market right when the CME opened their doors and then crashed it into the ground.  BZZZT WRONG ANSWER.  They did not magically gain control of the market when the CME that nobody even trades on opened.  They already controlled the market beforehand and were the ones who pumped it then dumped it in the first place.

They were on both sides of the trade.  While you were typing "bitcoin is the new internets of money!!111", they were typing "wow, these guys are fucking delusional idiots - the perfect targets to fleece".

Next you'll be telling me the gold and silver prices are not manipulated.
 

[HairyMaclairy]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

It’s no coincidence but there was no conspiracy if that is what you are implying. The public all knew about futures and thought Wall Street investment would long Bitcoin while they built up their positions.   The hype was insane.  

It’s a classic buy the runout sell the news.

[podyx]

Any reason for the dump?

[fragout]

Revised date. 02/08/2018

2nd Aug 2018

[HairyMaclairy]

Dump because hit the bottom of the downtrend line (log scale).

[Colonel Panic]

The argument for taint and title is strong
http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/Papers/making-bitcoin-legal.pdf

The authors don't detail much experimental evidence about their new taint model (basically FIFO accounting for taint), but they do offer a couple of numbers which, if supported by more testing, would be quite impressive. At any rate, there's ample food for thought.

If the legislative landscape they hint at really comes into being, I don't know where I'd stand on the line between "hard" and "soft" approaches. Bitcoin enthusiasts? Investors? Law enforcement? All of these positions would entail both "good" and "bad" practical consequences from my self-interested point of view.

Nice piece of work. Computer scientists discussing legal implications with a practical, technically sound background. A rarity.

Tasty find merited.

One of the problems with such a 'taint' system that it doesn't address, is what of coins falsely declared stolen? In the paper they seem to assume all such declarations to be honest, but in practice it just moves the arguments to the lawyer-enriching 'how to get these coins declared stolen or not' level.

[realr0ach]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

https://i62.servimg.com/u/f62/16/11/23/28/dump11.png

Why are you not intelligent enough to know the significance of what you posted?  The caption on your picture claims they took control of the market right when the CME opened their doors and then crashed it into the ground.  BZZZT WRONG ANSWER.  They did not magically gain control of the market when the CME that nobody even trades on opened.  They already controlled the market beforehand and were the ones who pumped it then dumped it in the first place.

They were on both sides of the trade.  While you were typing "bitcoin is the new internets of money!!111", they were typing "wow, these guys are fucking delusional idiots - the perfect targets to fleece".

Next you'll be telling me the gold and silver prices are not manipulated.
 

Everything is manipulated by the (((money changers))).  They have a partnership amongst their roundtable groups like the CFR filled with Hebrew usurers and corporate CEOs to permanently rig markets and make it so they cannot lose.  This is the real reason why the insanely rich keep getting more insanely rich recently, otherwise they would make a bad choice and eventually wipe themselves out.

This is why people like Hillary Clinton impossibly turn $1000 into $100,000 trading pork futures in one day.  However, the markets are predictable to the extent that these movements all require accumulation periods, so any market you look at at any given time is in one of three stages:  blowoff top, crashing, or sitting at the trough in accumulation mode.

[kurious]

Why do so many here fail to see the significance of this chart?
 

The chart of the historic downturn in prices is significant and 'many' here have indeed been through every day of it.

Many, however, will not agree with why the near-exponential rise of Bitcoin in 2017 ended and reversed.   Perhaps because correlation is not always evidence of causation.

[Rosewater Foundation]

[cofefeGandalf]

Dummass enterprise, that's the wrong direction!

[d_eddie]

The argument for taint and title is strong
http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/Papers/making-bitcoin-legal.pdf

The authors don't detail much experimental evidence about their new taint model (basically FIFO accounting for taint), but they do offer a couple of numbers which, if supported by more testing, would be quite impressive. At any rate, there's ample food for thought.

If the legislative landscape they hint at really comes into being, I don't know where I'd stand on the line between "hard" and "soft" approaches. Bitcoin enthusiasts? Investors? Law enforcement? All of these positions would entail both "good" and "bad" practical consequences from my self-interested point of view.

Nice piece of work. Computer scientists discussing legal implications with a practical, technically sound background. A rarity.

Tasty find merited.

One of the problems with such a 'taint' system that it doesn't address, is what of coins falsely declared stolen? In the paper they seem to assume all such declarations to be honest, but in practice it just moves the arguments to the lawyer-enriching 'how to get these coins declared stolen or not' level.

Hm, I hadn't thought of that.

Can you name a scenario where the game of falsely reporting a crime ("someone stole my coins!") has a positive probabilistic sum? Penalties can be harsh, and partners in crime won't be happy to see their newly tainted coins decrease in value.

[realr0ach]

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

I have found a way to get lambos (s, for more than one) but it's quite disgusting... do you wanna know more?