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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 36 (25.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25984629 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Ivor Biggun
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April 06, 2018, 12:59:11 AM

Ok motherfuckers.  We are at the bottom or close to it.

Sell pressure will ease after April 17 (US tax payment day) and Bitcoin will bounce.  

We may wobble a bit between here and there but I doubt we will get as low as $5k in the next 12 days.

I will watch the action carefully around that date.

I am not sure that tax selling has a lot of effect. Other forces are much larger.

There may be a bounce, but it is likely to have another driver.

I agree. First of all, I am not convinced a high percentage of American's that have profits to report from cryptocurrency, are bothering reporting it. If someone is a day trader, it's a nightmare. Second, many of those who are honest and report have already sold their coins and paid. One should pay quarterly to avoid penalties. If not quarterly, then one should pay Asap to avoid penalties. There may have been many who simply held out, hoping for a better price. However, I do not think this is a huge factor in our current bearish market.


Bob's not worried about penalties. He's putting off paying until next quarter, and paying the penalty. He's hoping bitcoin going back up in price will offset that penalty.

My accountant just got back to me. It's hell season for him, and dude is flying cross-country dealing with his larger clients.

Delaying a tax payment on $nM from one quarter to the next is negligible. 4% penalty annually (compounded daily so it works out to more than that, actually). The IRS is going to assume I owe 1/4 of $nM of the tax per quarter unless we specify otherwise (which we ultimately will, because I'm strange like that)

tl;dr: 1/4 of a 4% tax payment obligation on $nM, delayed a quarter, is a reasonable penalty in a down crypto market - assuming we don't head even lower in Q2.

Will take my chances and HODL.
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illyiller
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April 06, 2018, 12:59:19 AM

Is it just me, or are we forming a base here? Looks like an accumulation pattern that's aching to break upwards. (Looking at the 30-min - 1-hour charts)

I was all ready for doom too. Smiley

\\\\____$3500 looks like bottom however $2500 test would make more sense from $5000 pivot :-D weee

Yup, $2500 zone is my ultimate doom target. It's the area where the Wyckoff spring broke up last year and the bubble really began. It's the biggest base on the 2017 chart besides the $1000 area.

In before we go to $999 (dead srs). Tongue
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April 06, 2018, 01:06:28 AM

Is it just me, or are we forming a base here? Looks like an accumulation pattern that's aching to break upwards. (Looking at the 30-min - 1-hour charts)

I was all ready for doom too. Smiley

\\\\____$3500 looks like bottom however $2500 test would make more sense from $5000 pivot :-D weee

Going all in 100x leverage short on Bitmex!

https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt?lang=en

Bitcoinaire
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April 06, 2018, 01:18:09 AM

The feeling of doom being right around the corner........
gembitz
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April 06, 2018, 01:31:59 AM

The feeling of doom being right around the corner........

cheep corns my friend :-D >>sub $5000 real money buys in?
Ivor Biggun
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April 06, 2018, 02:00:54 AM

Bob's not worried about penalties. He's putting off paying until next quarter, and paying the penalty. He's hoping bitcoin going back up in price will offset that penalty.

I'm actually considering making at least a 25% payment for the Q1FY18 activity, instead of a 100% payment in Q2FY18.



Do you have to make that payment in fiat before the end of the tax year (in less than 10 days)?
gembitz
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April 06, 2018, 02:04:10 AM

Bob's not worried about penalties. He's putting off paying until next quarter, and paying the penalty. He's hoping bitcoin going back up in price will offset that penalty.

I'm actually considering making at least a 25% payment for the Q1FY18 activity, instead of a 100% payment in Q2FY18.

Still expecting sticker shock from my accountant on what our April 15th FY17 obligations are, but rough mental numbers tell me I have enough cash liquid - in accounts I wouldn't feel bad touching - to deal with at least a 25% payment on my Q1FY18 activities, on top of whatever we're likely to owe for FY17.

Out buttholes have been pretty darned puckered lately, in anticipation of the tax bill.

Less than 10 days to deadline.

Sheeit.

i wonder >_> can you "airdrop" coins for a write off? :-D weeee
Ivor Biggun
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April 06, 2018, 02:12:54 AM

Do you have to make that payment in fiat before the end of the tax year (in less than 10 days)?

Yep. Q1 current year payments due same date as prior FY payment.



That might partially explain the dump.
Rosewater Foundation
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April 06, 2018, 02:15:22 AM

Can we stop pretending three months of crash is somehow tied to tax deadlines?

It would be great.
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April 06, 2018, 02:25:40 AM

Can we stop pretending three months of crash is somehow tied to tax deadlines?

It would be great.

We are all gonna die. Really.
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April 06, 2018, 02:26:01 AM

People are doing transactions using lightning network with this wallet on the bitcoin mainnet.

Quote from: @acinq_co

Soon more wallets will be doing this too. This will reflect the price anytime soon.
infofront (OP)
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April 06, 2018, 02:29:42 AM
Merited by jbreher (1)

Can you even buy crypto kitties with Lightning tho?
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April 06, 2018, 03:35:05 AM

Bob's not worried about penalties. He's putting off paying until next quarter, and paying the penalty. He's hoping bitcoin going back up in price will offset that penalty.

I'm actually considering making at least a 25% payment for the Q1FY18 activity, instead of a 100% payment in Q2FY18.

Still expecting sticker shock from my accountant on what our April 15th FY17 obligations are, but rough mental numbers tell me I have enough cash liquid - in accounts I wouldn't feel bad touching - to deal with at least a 25% payment on my Q1FY18 activities, on top of whatever we're likely to owe for FY17.

Out buttholes have been pretty darned puckered lately, in anticipation of the tax bill.

Less than 10 days to deadline.

Sheeit.

Got my refund.  Bought the dip.

Boom.

FU Capitalism!
Paashaas
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April 06, 2018, 03:55:39 AM

President Trump has instructed the United States Trade Representative to consider $100 billion of additional tariffs on China.

I like this trading war between China and Uncle Sam, who got the bigger balls and who will bow in the end Smiley
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April 06, 2018, 04:21:45 AM

How do I short both sides?
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April 06, 2018, 04:25:54 AM

Can we stop pretending three months of crash is somehow tied to tax deadlines?

It would be great.

+1 WOsMerit

---------------------

While this is not directly related to bitcoin or the wall I think it worth reading imho.

This is a well written article..up to a point. A lot of bias is carried throughout the dialogue but I think overall its a decent perspective on globalization.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/05/demise-of-the-nation-state-rana-dasgupta

-------------------------

Hmmm..bitcoin.

Ehav ot ays..I ma ushc a cotnraairn..vereythngi sesme ot eb oggni ewll..tey I acn nto shaek tihs fienlge I avhe eben vhinag. Tis ton a ogdo eflinge ni esac ouyr rae nowdnrgie.

Lla thsi takl of coolrde ncoi adn xeahcnesg obglncki nitlces htwi uot irpro tnioec...tsju elaves a eriretbl fateatrste ni ym uothm. I acn mmberere owh ynrag I asw hwen iths sfrit asw oesrisuly dscuissde. I asw isedsp..adn at het mite httough..ko..ihts is a htign..but we will rifuge uto soliutons thta aer fari. 5 yarse tealr...  Taht si chus a nglo
--------------------------
Anyway...I need to vacate..need to clear my thoughts. Time for a weekend sail I do believe.

This chart is absolute shit.. Complete personal bias on how I think the market is behaving. That being said..I do think you will be able to spot structures that have similar resonances to what I have indicated.

Take care at the Wall and be safe out there. #dyor
realr0ach
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April 06, 2018, 04:26:42 AM

President Trump has instructed the United States Trade Representative to consider $100 billion of additional tariffs on China.

I like this trading war between China and Uncle Sam, who got the bigger balls and who will bow in the end Smiley

The real monetary unit of the trade war that most people aren't paying attention to (old chart - numbers are much higher now).  It's a stealth confiscation before revaluation.  Bankers/govt rig paper market while buying all the physical:



fabiorem
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April 06, 2018, 04:27:38 AM

Can we stop pretending three months of crash is somehow tied to tax deadlines?

It would be great.


Remember the chinese new year? Everybody saying it would stabilize after that...



infofront (OP)
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April 06, 2018, 04:32:36 AM

President Trump has instructed the United States Trade Representative to consider $100 billion of additional tariffs on China.

I like this trading war between China and Uncle Sam, who got the bigger balls and who will bow in the end Smiley

Considering the enormous trade deficit the US has with China ($375 Billion), China has a lot more to lose from a trade war. But will they be able to surrender and still save face?
Rosewater Foundation
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April 06, 2018, 04:35:06 AM

Can we stop pretending three months of crash is somehow tied to tax deadlines?

It would be great.


Remember the chinese new year? Everybody saying it would stabilize after that...





I have to admit, when Bob starts talking bollocks it makes me very nervous.
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