The only way is down now
no chance we are reaching 8k for a very long time.
The way I see it, in this particular moment it's very hard to name a "no chance" event.
Merited. Wise words. While catching up on this thread gradually you see how unwise and price prediction in any direction is, on any near/medium term time frame.
TA / price analysis is fun to see, but so much of it is as accurate as a stopped clock, as all we can do is to try to set up for whatever happens. I was watching your 'short insurance' strategy, seemed to make sense - may I ask how it has panned out? Or is it just too much work to keep on top of it?
Thanks for the appreciation.
My insurance is doing fine! With today's dip, I'm comfortably in the money. With the latest fluctuations, I'd already managed to nurse it to a higher entry point with incidental small profit. My aim isn't maximum profit, but maximum comfort, as JayJuanGee said. This makes it a little easier, but it's still hard work for me. Of course there's a different "hard work" threshold for each one of us. With the position moving to a higher entry point, the amount of work decreases.
However, if it doesn't hurt at times, I feel I'm doing it wrong. It's supposed to hurt a little now and then, unless you're magically able to spot either tops or bottoms (which would make hedging moot anyway).
I'm not closing it yet. Bring it down to 5k or 3k, will you? Please??
I've also worked out a "pain threshold" in advance. That's where I'll close the insurance hedge (at a loss) before liquidation if I don't manage to close gradually on the way up while still in the money. The numbers are good: by the time we reach that threshold, it will be Carolina Train time around here.
That's just my play money, of course. If it was my stash at stake, I wouldn't be so detached or cool headed in making difficult decisions.
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