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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 50 (24.3%)
2024 - 83 (40.3%)
2025 - 55 (26.7%)
2026 - 4 (1.9%)
2027 - 2 (1%)
After 2027 - 3 (1.5%)
Never - 9 (4.4%)
Total Voters: 206

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26081836 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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November 20, 2018, 12:23:22 AM

sure i saw a post about hairy models, but where is it?
1679521980
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somac.
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November 20, 2018, 12:28:15 AM

I'm wondering what were the reasons for the bottoming period in 2014/15. I always thought it might of been that the mining costs at the time made a floor at that price, but I never looked into it. Does anyone know if the mining price was around the 200 level in 2014/15?

The bottom in October 2015 was actively fished for with bear raids.  It wasn't really much to do with cost of production seeing as how bitcoin cost of production is completely variable.  It was really pounded into the ground hard to try and find it.  Nothing like you saw then is occurring right now.  It was stable sideways, pounded into the floor, then instant rebound.  There's absolutely no springboard effect rebounds going on on this shit nowadays.

Too soon..

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?
eddie13
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November 20, 2018, 12:32:15 AM

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?

I think it's too soon to tell if their will be a bounce like he said their wasn't.
I think it could hit as low as 3k and we will still be on our way to another moon shot to $100k.
I expect the pattern after $1200 to repeat itself, but likely with less dead time from this bottom to the next pump.
If it goes below $3k much I may feel the pattern of successive pumps may be over, maybe $2500.
JayJuanGee
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November 20, 2018, 12:34:04 AM

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?



Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.
somac.
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November 20, 2018, 12:37:58 AM

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?

I think it's too soon to tell if their will be a bounce like he said their wasn't.
I think it could hit as low as 3k and we will still be on our way to another moon shot to $100k.
I expect the pattern after $1200 to repeat itself, but likely with less dead time from this bottom to the next pump.
If it goes below $3k much I may feel the pattern of successive pumps may be over, maybe $2500.

the pattern of successive pumps ending is my fear too. I figured it wouldn't due to the halvenings and the fact that the legacy financial system is so fucked up. Therefore, eventually there will be a consistent move into btc.

I hate doubting btc, I did the same thing in 2014/15 and I am starting to do it again now.
yefi
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November 20, 2018, 12:46:03 AM

Let's get this shit done with some good old fashioned merit abuse.

Legendary merit drop! Cool

Respect.
Torque
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November 20, 2018, 12:46:13 AM

Hey quick, someone get Novogratz on the phone!

I think we need another (3rd?) bottom call, lol.  Grin
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November 20, 2018, 12:46:57 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), jbreher (1)

I believe BCH was the main catalyst at least. But by no means the only factor.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

My conclusion and prediction:

-
-
-
 Not a good sign.

I have no idea how this unwinds.  But that won't stop me from speculating.

A.
B.
I give A/B chances at 65/35 for fundamental reasons.  This is not 2014.  A lot of smart rich people have figured out exactly what bitcoin is this time around.

(Dear Lord... I feel like I turned into JJG)
Get the fuck out of here with this apparent pretense of being using some kind of self-defined wordy prose just to be able to claim any kind of pretense at being in the vicinity JJG-ness within 63.5-72.2%. Even using numbers and probability. Tsk.
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November 20, 2018, 12:48:30 AM

Hey quick, someone get Novogratz on the phone!

I think we need another (3rd?) bottom call, lol.  Grin

He was probably the main person dumping while tweeting it's the bottom.
PoolMinor
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November 20, 2018, 12:51:47 AM

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?



Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.

Because they created 100 Billion of them but only distributed 40 billion. Lots of centralization and not mine-able.
somac.
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November 20, 2018, 12:58:52 AM

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?



Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.

Because they created 100 Billion of them but only distributed 40 billion. Lots of centralization and not mine-able.

Every now and again I consider changing what is my most hated shitcoin. But ripple always maintains the title.
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November 20, 2018, 01:00:18 AM
Merited by FractalUniverse (1)

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?
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November 20, 2018, 01:05:13 AM

I am newbie but really love to be involved here for perspective of learning as I have too much information and understanding from here no other thread providing this with fun and enjoy  Smiley

Welcome!!!!


Do you have any BTC or plans to buy? 

Do you trade BTC or plan to merely HODL or SODL?

Do you love any of the alts (I mean shit coins)?

Provide us some context. 

Which parts of this thread is interesting: substantive discussions, the troll posts or something else?  hahahahhahaa
marcus_of_augustus
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November 20, 2018, 01:06:14 AM

buying the dips is for noobs, short-termers and suckers ...

... round here we accumulate bottoms ...
 
and hats.
goldkingcoiner
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November 20, 2018, 01:07:38 AM

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?

The falling knife is usually caught quickly. We have been lingering at the bottom of the dip for too long. Too suspicious. Waiting for the CCI to get into the positive. Choppiness index and BB are my favorite reliable indicators for breakouts. And both are pointing south. Not good. Bull traps ahead.
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November 20, 2018, 01:08:01 AM

Do we panic sell yet?
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November 20, 2018, 01:10:45 AM

Bitstamp getting hacked caused the $150 bottom in 2015. At that time it was the biggest exchange.

Bitstamp's hack was relatively small potatoes, they only lost like 19K BTC. Finex was also the largest exchange according to Bitcoinity.

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November 20, 2018, 01:11:49 AM

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/C~4AAOSwRQxaVLNM/s-l300.jpg
somac.
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November 20, 2018, 01:20:10 AM


The falling knife is usually caught quickly. We have been lingering at the bottom of the dip for too long. Too suspicious. Waiting for the CCI to get into the positive. Choppiness index and BB are my favorite reliable indicators for breakouts. And both are pointing south. Not good. Bull traps ahead.

Exactly. This lingering is a real problem I think it seems to mean that the sellers are done for now, but there are no buyers at this price, so will eventually go down again when more sellers arrive Sad
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November 20, 2018, 01:21:11 AM

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?

Yes, the september 2017 dump was UGLY.

Unfortunately I already got my hands badly cut from the falling knifes. And not much remaining (trading) FIAT anyways.

I am tempted to set some limit orders for all the remaining or even market buy and forget about Bitcoin for a long while as I did during most of 2014 and 2015. It paid off to be honest.

What can I say, your methodical plan of selling on the way up has proven much more effective than mine. I messed all up when I kept reducing the amount of trading until a point where I was trading with less than 5-10% of my total "cold" stash. My trades were not bad overall but what difference did I expect to make with that little proportion?

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