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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 36 (25.2%)
2024 - 55 (38.5%)
2025 - 39 (27.3%)
2026 - 3 (2.1%)
2027 - 2 (1.4%)
After 2027 - 3 (2.1%)
Never - 5 (3.5%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25985674 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
somac.
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November 20, 2018, 09:15:59 AM


I know what you mean
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November 20, 2018, 09:16:22 AM



If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...




What ?  You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?  


I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ?  This latest plunge just hammers it home.


I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.
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November 20, 2018, 09:18:52 AM



If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...




What ?  You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?  


I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ?  This latest plunge just hammers it home.


I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.
I think it's safe to say at this point that the price is artificially depressed. It won't be 3 years with the halvening coming up.
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November 20, 2018, 09:21:35 AM



If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...




What ?  You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?  


I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ?  This latest plunge just hammers it home.


I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.
I think it's safe to say at this point that the price is artificially depressed. It won't be 3 years with the halvening coming up.

I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.
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November 20, 2018, 09:25:55 AM




I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.


I hope so.  That would mark a proper bottom (but be prepared for the plunge to intensify first). Shorts eventually have to be closed.
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November 20, 2018, 09:26:30 AM



I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.

Yep, perhaps that prick pulled a stunt. It does feel different then '15, was more like an organic capitulation back then.
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November 20, 2018, 09:26:54 AM


I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.

wouldn't surprise me, socio/pschopaths like to destroy everything they can't control or win over. If that is the case I take solace in knowing that he will fail. Watch where he is in 10 years, he'll be out of this industry and trying the same shit with another. The guy is a con man.
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November 20, 2018, 09:26:54 AM

If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...

What ?  You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?  

You snipped out part of my post in which I attempted to assert that I am possibly coming over to your side, but I am not going to come easily.

Surely, it was disappointed to see $5,800 support break, but the reasons are not bitcoin specific, but still I understand that some of the broader cryptospace can pull BTC prices down, due to froth in the space... but I am still not going to give in and to assume 1-2 years in the doldrums, which a 2014 scenario might reasonably presume.

In other words, yeah.. no two corrections are alike, and I am not even conceding bear market yet, even though bear maket would kind of put us into further downward trajectory, like you suggested into the below $3k arena... which I surely have my doubts that we are going there.. but I might be willing to concede if this current situation does not bounce back sufficiently in the coming weeks.


I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ?  This latest plunge just hammers it home.

O.k. We read differently, and I don't concede that a previous pattern implies the next pattern either in duration nor in intensity... especially when the way up was different in this 2017 one, too.  In other words, you cannot just begin from the downward point, you have to consider both the upwards slope that got to the top and the downward slope, not just one side of it.

I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.

I concede  that odds are higher in your direction now, but I am not going to give in, yet.
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November 20, 2018, 09:31:40 AM



If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...




What ?  You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ?  


I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ?  This latest plunge just hammers it home.


I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter.
I think it's safe to say at this point that the price is artificially depressed. It won't be 3 years with the halvening coming up.


Actually, yes.  That is another factor.  The halvening.  Surely it is understandable that beartards and shils may want to keep the price down before and after the halvening, but they can only do so much when the new supply shrinks and the effects of that shrinkage is felt, so even if the shills and the beartards are successful keeping (or suppressing) the BTC price for the longest case scenario, they are going to b on the outside of their abilities to accomplish that by late 2020.. so about 2 years would be the most reasonable longest maximum of this bear market, if we were to go into one right now (or confirm  such bear market)
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November 20, 2018, 09:35:39 AM

It's scary to catch a falling knife, but you buy now and hold a few yrs, you're good to go. Even if it goes to 2-3K, u'll still make off like a bandit.

Actually, I am not saying that it is not worth it to try to catch a falling knife.  I just know that it is scary, and frequently peeps get criticized for attempting to buy the dip when the bottom remains so uncertain.  

In the long run, profit for sure, but it is just a matter of feeling good that you more or less got a decent price and did not waste too much fiat buying every single dip when you could have waited a bit longer.

For me it's more scary to catch a flying rocket than a falling knife!

PS: I forgot the reply tab open for about 30 minutes and 21 new replies have already been posted! Shocked
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November 20, 2018, 09:37:53 AM

Dropping but still the best coin around. Can't see it going in the 1000-2000$ territory as some say. No way.
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November 20, 2018, 09:39:19 AM

Just read on Reddit that this drop could be Due to Craig and Johan hash war.

Those two Bitcoin billionaires and scolding their BTC to fund their hashwar.
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November 20, 2018, 09:43:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitserve (1)


O.k. We read differently, and I don't concede that a previous pattern implies the next pattern either in duration nor in intensity... especially when the way up was different in this 2017 one, too.  In other words, you cannot just begin from the downward point, you have to consider both the upwards slope that got to the top and the downward slope, not just one side of it.



All charts are hidsight of course. IMO their main usefulness  is in telling us why/how a particular price move happened.

My own methodology starts with the premise that a Bear Market has a job to do. That job is to shake out the weak hands. The higher the previous rise, the harder the job will be ,hence the use of % retracements etc (which are flawed anyway).

How the weak hands are shaken out is a combination of circumstance. The BCH/SV debacle is merely one of those random circumstances : the fall was due anyway. In fact, better to get it over with, deep , sharp and quick. Slow attrition is harder to recover from.

In BTC terms this is not a crash. $2000 next week is a crash.

So I kind of agree with you, the jury is still out . They never really reach a verdict until its all over.

 

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November 20, 2018, 09:43:53 AM

Just read on Reddit that this drop could be Due to Craig and Johan hash war.

Those two Bitcoin billionaires and scolding their BTC to fund their hashwar.

The hashwar is costing only around $1 million daily. That's not the reason. CSW/Calvin selling/shorting the market while they make every effort to spread chaos maybe is.
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November 20, 2018, 09:49:34 AM

no follow through on this little pullback and no volume, prepare for lower prices
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November 20, 2018, 09:50:52 AM
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Crazy week, no doubt. Definitely picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

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November 20, 2018, 09:51:07 AM

I'm now happy that I've already lost 80% of my portfolios value. Can't really seem to bother anymore about losing another 5% or so. I have about 25 years to go untill my desired retirement kicks in. Time is on my side.
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November 20, 2018, 09:54:52 AM

It's interesting how even long timers forget how this market works. This is nothing out of the ordinary, just annoying.

Alright, you know what, fuck it.

I might sound bipolar as fuck but I知 going to the bank now to move cash in so I can buy.

That's the spirit.  Buy dat dip!!!!!!  GET our BTC price going back up. 

I bought some at $45xx-ish and $43xx-ish.. hoping that I am done buying for a bit, but who the fuck knows?

And about 2021 are you thinking about selling early 2021, mid-2021 or late 2021?  or do you have flexibility beyond 2021?  Just wondering?

2021 was just a guess of mine for when we might see a huge increase in price. I was just going off the pattern we usually see post halving. The next halving is mid 2020 so I知 thinking/hoping we値l see a new ATH as previously 6-12 months after the halving.

I make good fiat in my life, I have my own business that earns me a good salary so this is not going to kill me.
My hope is that bitcoin makes me a multimillionaire post halving.
I知 waiting for $40,000 - $50,000 per coin then I値l sell about half.

I can wait until 2022 & onwards but mid 2021 (ish) is my dream scenario.
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November 20, 2018, 09:57:08 AM

So... which price will be the bottom?

Interestingly, it's almost like at the BTC/BCH fork happened more than 1 year ago.
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November 20, 2018, 09:59:48 AM

At this rate of -$1k a week , we only have 4 weeks at most to the bottom @ $300. In other words the real bottom is close. $3k, $1300, $1k. I dont see a long sideways action when we hit it though and expect a relatively quick climb to $6k again. Perhaps sideways will resume there for a while though
Reason for the collapse are unknown unlike previous years but it was certainly triggered by the bcash debacle which reinforces the idea that this event is being used to force the price down
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