Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

There's some very weird stocking up going on in Malmö, all the canned meatballs in brown sauce and all the canned chili con carne is gone, but the canned ravioli is untouched. And basically everything else is also in normal stock.
I asked when it will be back in stock and they said tomorrow, there is no shortage, deliveries come as usual.
And if you go to Trelleborg instead there is no stocking going on at all.

[OutOfMemory]

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

An ideal post for gentlemand to merit  

Actually thought it would be his writing  

Absolutely. Whenever i read his writings i have to think of Patrick Bateman in "American Psycho".

who's jam would this be

Mine
I had a similar setup 11 years ago. The double bed was standard, but i mounted my screen behind a wooden board with black velvet lining, with the three front 5.1 speakers mounted around the display. The board was tilted off a horizontal platform, using hinges and a metal chain to adjust the angle, very simple but effective. The platform was hung from the ceiling, on two rails from sliding doors, mounted in the direction of the bed's axis, over the center of the bed. I was able to play in almost any position, from sitting upright to lying flat, after adjusting the angle and height. Watching movies also was great. The display was only 26" diameter, but considering the resolution of the screen and the human eye, it was more than sufficient at the lower distance. I hit my head occasionally when getting out of bed in the dark, nothing too serious, though. I still have the rails in the basement, so maybe i will build something like this again. Of course, i had a wireless keyboard, and this was the only annoying thing about it: Typing while lying flat.

I got the idea from a movie, where a games programmer like was living in an automated chair with screens hung above and in front of him, split keyboard in the armrests (iirc). Funny, as i just googled for it, i found the title "Grandma's Boy", from 2006, directed by Nicholaus Goossen (*).

EDIT:
(*) That name was rising some memories about someone you might know...

[Cryptotourist]

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?

#haiku

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Swish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received

That’s really good, we can’t get anything from one particular area where our main Chinese factory is. Our fucking sales are 50% down in the last 2 months due to having to advertise alternative stuff.

[Torque]

An easy case can be made, especially since the Financial Crisis of 2009, that these virus outbreaks have had little to no long term impact on the markets.

And that shouldn't be a surprise, since we are in a long term melt-up. All the growth economies of the world have been negative since 2009. Nothing will stop the Fed and the CBs from keeping this market moving North. Because supply chains don't really mean shit when actual demand has cratered a long time ago. Welcome to the world zombie economy.

Ask yourself, will what is happening right now even matter in 5 years? Nope.

#BUYBTC #BUYPMs #BUYANYTHINGDEFLATIONARY

[nutildah]

You're talking about a moving average

I am not talking about any moving averages.

Yes, you are. The asset doesn't move perfectly fitted to a "constant trajectory," you said so yourself. A rocket moves at a "constant trajectory." Stocks don't - not even fictitious examples of stocks - unless they completely lack volatility. In your example, you can only be talking about the trajectory of a price as being defined by its moving average. If its not, its not "constant."

Your argument was that volatility is equivalent to risk, which is generally wrong. Neither contains much, if any, information about the other.

Perhaps I shouldn't have used an equal sign to imply that the two are strongly correlated (which they are). They are indeed not equivalents of each other and do not possess the same definition.

To show to you that this is not the case I've tried to give you examples of assets that directly contradict your assertion.

You gave me an example of an asset that doesn't exist.

In the 'basket of all stocks' you have no risk in the long-term, because your expected loss (= risk) is strictly negative and hence your expected return is strictly positive, because the realized total return converges towards 10% p.a. (in the case of the US stock market) over time.
Despite that, the asset itself has been volatile. Hence, volatility does not imply anything about risk nor vice versa. The only thing that matters for risk is your strategy and nothing else.

That's a classic example of an average risk, average volatility asset. Its a benchmark for both risk and volatility. You're proving my point for me.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

No, you can't. "Perpetually flat asset" implies zero volatility and zero risk. How do you lose money on something whose value never changes?

And saying bitcoin has no risk is absurd. Does anybody else feel like bitcoin is a "risk-free" investment?

You can get volatility and risk in any combination and neither implies the other.

Okay, I'm willing to concede that they do not imply one another 100% of the time, but as a general rule of thumb, they do.

Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.

Just like the expected value of a dice roll is 3.5 = 1/6 times sum of all potential results.

Not trying to troll you but this is a horrible example as you can never roll a "3.5" -- that would be a highly unexpected outcome.

With risk the results are potential price trajectories in the market and the probabilities are obviously different and depend on all sorts of parameters.
Realized returns on the other hand are what you end up with in reality, and while risk can give you an idea of a region that you'll land in, it'll never tell you what will really happen for individual 'games'.

I don't disagree with this.

Here's another attempt to make the point clear.
Assume you have volatility but it's always the same. Basically, your price follows a 100% predictable pattern no matter how many people buy or sell. In that case you have volatility, but 100% insight and hence can generate profits without any risk whatsoever.
Obviously this isn't going to happen in real markets (though it does in many games), but it should be sufficiently illustrative to show that volatility and risk aren't related.

Dude. Volatility that is always the same is not volatility. That's stability, and thus not risk. As you said, obviously this isn't going to happen in real markets, and it won't, ever. Nobody has 100% insight into any market.

If your best real-world example of an asset that has high volatility and "no risk" is bitcoin, I'm going to stick by my original assertion that you are just looking at this from an after-the-fact standpoint.

[OutOfMemory]

Dedicated to all WO electro-synth fans:
Jean-Michel Jarre - Oxygene, Pt. 17
Getting in the mood for what's coming...

Wow!

Jean-Michel Jarre - Fourth Rendez-Vous

Patrick Chardronnet - Oxygene Part II

This modern techno / club remake is fucking brilliant, IMO.

modern? NO WAY!
Let me go on:
It more reminds me of the old times of techno, in the mid 90s, where all the power of a raving masterpiece of techno came from a simple but powerful hookline, uncomplicated sound design in the ways a jupiter8 or minimoog could deliver, accompanied by a tb-303 bassline, while the emotions of the listener were unchained by about only the arrangement, which brought him/her onto a journey through the universe of his/her own mind. I might have swallowed, sniffed, licked and smoked too much of all the funky substances offered to me these days to maximise the experience this way, but hey, techno was made with that in mind. It was like woodstock reloaded in the nineties, unlike that uniform, commercial, high polished polyrhytm techno music scene of today.
A track from 2018, which is free from all that and still makes you float away, like in the old days, that's indeed a brilliant piece of work.
I need to get some very old mp3s now, thanks for igniting the spark    

[Arriemoller]

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Swish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received

That’s really good, we can’t get anything from one particular area where our main Chinese factory is. Our fucking sales are 50% down in the last 2 months due to having to advertise alternative stuff.

That sucks man.

[Arriemoller]

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?

#haiku

I would so merit this if I could.

[Last of the V8s]

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?

#haiku

I would so merit this if I could.

last line has 4 syllables. merit saved

[OutOfMemory]

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?

#haiku

I would so merit this if I could.

last line has 4 syllables. merit saved

I intentionally read it as "who is". Problem solved. Merited.

[Wekkel]

I purchased a tiny bit of Bitcoin so price can go down now.

/your most reliable contra-indicator.

[lightfoot]

Dedicated to all WO electro-synth fans:

Jean-Michel Jarre - Oxygene, Pt. 17

Getting in the mood for what's coming...

Wow!

Jean-Michel Jarre - Fourth Rendez-Vous

The Wow was in reference to 6EQUJ5. Still, rendezvous is one hell of a track.

[Arriemoller]

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

[lightfoot]

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

You trust the government? This government?

Hm.

[Arriemoller]

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

You trust the government? This government?

Hm.

Well, I agree that Löfven is the worst prime minister we ever had, but the bureaucracy and military is still working.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.

Look, I hate to be that guy, but I've got a PhD in Mathematical Statistics. This stuff is my bread and butter. If you've got questions I'll be happy to try and answer them. But I'm not going to argue about basic definitions.

The definition of risk in finance is and always has been the expected loss with regard to some measure, or in other words: the expected value (or integral) of some loss function that is defined by your strategy. This is not a probability, it's a value. A value which can be positive, negative or zero to indicate respectively the average loss, profit or no change over many repetitions of the same strategy.

The probability that returns deviate from expectation can be measured in different ways, but none of those is what is understood as "risk" in this field.

Okay, I'm willing to concede that they do not imply one another 100% of the time, but as a general rule of thumb, they do.

No, they do not. Risk exclusively a measure of your proposed strategy. Volatility is a market phenomenon that does not in any way depend on your strategy.

Yes, you are. The asset doesn't move perfectly fitted to a "constant trajectory," you said so yourself. A rocket moves at a "constant trajectory." Stocks don't - not even fictitious examples of stocks - unless they completely lack volatility. In your example, you can only be talking about the trajectory of a price as being defined by its moving average. If its not, its not "constant."

No, I'm still not talking about moving averages and you are still completely misrepresenting what I've said.

To cut it short, it was probably my bad for assuming you weren't, but you're clearly just using terms very loosely and with a naive colloquial understanding as opposed to their actual definitions.

If you're not going to do anything with these things that's fine I suppose. But you should still be aware of your misunderstanding of the subject.

Your argument was that volatility is equivalent to risk, which is generally wrong. Neither contains much, if any, information about the other.

Perhaps I shouldn't have used an equal sign to imply that the two are strongly correlated (which they are). They are indeed not equivalents of each other and do not possess the same definition.

No, they still aren't strongly correlated. The level of correlation depends exclusively on your strategy, capacity, and infrastructure and not on the volatility. They have virtually nothing to do with each other.

You can by the way have two different definitions or objects that are equivalent to each other.

To show to you that this is not the case I've tried to give you examples of assets that directly contradict your assertion.

You gave me an example of an asset that doesn't exist.

It's called an academic example. Which is more than fit to illustrate points about an already abstract field like finance.

In the 'basket of all stocks' you have no risk in the long-term, because your expected loss (= risk) is strictly negative and hence your expected return is strictly positive, because the realized total return converges towards 10% p.a. (in the case of the US stock market) over time.
Despite that, the asset itself has been volatile. Hence, volatility does not imply anything about risk nor vice versa. The only thing that matters for risk is your strategy and nothing else.

That's a classic example of an average risk, average volatility asset. Its a benchmark for both risk and volatility. You're proving my point for me.

No, I'm not. Risk and volatility are not equivalent and in fact not even correlated until an individual, specific strategy introduces correlation.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

No, you can't. "Perpetually flat asset" implies zero volatility and zero risk. How do you lose money on something whose value never changes?

And saying bitcoin has no risk is absurd. Does anybody else feel like bitcoin is a "risk-free" investment?

Yes, you can. You can have a company that doesn't ever grow, returns the same dividends and keeps the same asset value. Until an asteroid wipes it out of existence and reduces it to zero.

As I've already said, in finance the risk of a strategy (e.g. "buy Bitcoin") is the expected loss of that strategy. This is a statistical measure. And because Bitcoin's potential returns are so extreme this becomes an example of an asset with negative risk, e.g. expected returns, despite not guaranteeing any profit.

Just like the expected value of a dice roll is 3.5 = 1/6 times sum of all potential results.

Not trying to troll you but this is a horrible example as you can never roll a "3.5" -- that would be a highly unexpected outcome.

Good, that's why this makes a perfect example if you actually want to understand what's going on.

If your best real-world example of an asset that has high volatility and "no risk" is bitcoin, I'm going to stick by my original assertion that you are just looking at this from an after-the-fact standpoint.

See the dice example. I'm not. Risk is a "before-the-fact" measure.

[jojo69]

yeah

I ain't waiting around for no goddamned government cheese

[HairyMaclairy]

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

What are you, some sort of socialist?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

yeah

I ain't waiting around for no goddamned government cheese

Government makes the best cheese in the world.