Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Globb0]

You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Or at least they are acted upon by similar forces

[Cryptotourist]

Last but not least - some peoples sex life - is acted upon similar forces.

Either way, badger does not care.

[Karartma1]

Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.

"HNWIs are cautiously interested in holding cryptocurrencies: globally, only 29% of them show a high level of interest, while 26.9% say they are quite interested. The potential of cryptocurrencies, in terms of both investment returns and store of value, is acting as a driver of interest for HNWIs, especially among the youngest. In fact, 71.1% of those under the age of 40 attach great importance to receiving information on cryptocurrencies from the major asset management companies, compared to 13% of HNWIs over the age of 60. But when it comes to providing information on these types of instruments to HNWI clients, wealth management firms have been ambivalent, with only 34.6% of HNWIs globally claiming to have received such information from their wealth managers."

Are you a HNWI interested in Bitcoin? Ask your dedicated Wealth Manager! He will steal you juicy fees for letting you become a HODLer.
 

Data from https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capgemini-World-Wealth-Report.pdf

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://blockstream.info/address/1DGwqAM8mV4aJVPidoBp9Zfz8GKhAzLkma
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipcanh/damaged_secret_key/

I don’t use paper wallets but to only have one copy & not have it laminated?

School boy errors!

[El duderino_]

https://youtu.be/Idlf_LLyi1o

^
Gogogo

Road to ATH..... continuing

[El duderino_]

^
Bullish

[hv_]

Tether wall at Sep 17th?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CasPiancey/status/1303492532815290369

[philipma1957]

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

[gappie]

The run to ATH has started

Continues

Math’s and science

Continuing

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

[d_eddie]

You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Decorrelation
isn't a thing anymore
not these days at least




#haiku

[nullius]

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!

[nullius]

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.

[philipma1957]

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!

A) thanks for post back
B) I am enjoying my eth to btc mining a lot.
C) The internet does cause a lot of misunderstandings. You meaning me write something with a thought in mind. Read what you wrote and say cool.  Then some read it and interprets it in a completely different way then the composer intended it to be understood.
D) I am guilty of writing free flow James Joyce style so occasionally I look at whaT I wrote and say WTF DID I MEAN.

[Toxic2040]

SHOCKING: Leaked video of Toxic preparing his charts for posting:

[ivomm]

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!

As a fellow gpu miner I confirm philipma1957's arguments. For example, this year I was able to buy 0.05 BTC per month with my salary savings. A month ago eth/btc price doubled and gas went to the roof. I turned on my home rigs (exactly 1Gh with the last gpu installed today) and with the whole salary used for electricity I got around 3 eth turned into ~0.1 BTC. The daily income for me varies between $15 and 95$, so it is hard to tell what will happen, but I expect this increase to hold in the following months. I guess most miners convert at least 30% into bitcoin. I am a bit too agressive and I converted 60% so far. I also don't have any trust in this eth 2.0 pos thingy, so I will convert all of it before it starts.

Edit. It is good while writing a post to see that the price has increased. Currently $10475. With this pace we will regain $11K in few days or even hours.

[Toxic2040]

early morning card readings

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.

Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.

#dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands

[soullyG]

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

+10 WO Merits

early morning card readings

#dyor

...

#stronghands

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)

[philipma1957]

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.


I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.

[Biodom]

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).

[proudhon]

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science: