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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368707 times)
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September 09, 2020, 03:30:42 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 04:11:43 AM by nullius

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck,

Heh.  Not the first time I’ve gotten that.  But then, I agree with this:

It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

How’s this for what, from your perspective, Jay, would be a “crazy fuck”:  I have at various times spent several portions of my adult life voluntarily “unbanked”.  Cash-only.  On principle, because I hate the banks and I do not wish to associate with them, much less to depend on them.  Do I not have a right to choose not to have a goddamn bank account?  Yes, they have made it exceedingly difficult to live this way.

(And here, I was nearly drawn into professional finance as a lad... it’s been a long road...)

Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time. [...]

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

Yes, I wish that with my current level of life experience, I could go back in time and tell my younger self some more general version of this—not only about Bitcoin!  I have consistently screwed myself over this way.  Much of that thing I didn’t post a few days ago had to do with that.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
Most naïve youths lose their characteristic idealism in the moment that they catch the scent of money; I didn’t.  Instead of being pulled into the system, I went against it...  I sincerely never cared about money, until intense personal hardship beat into me the importance of having some; and at that point, it was too late to go back and spend wasted years differently.

As for the rest:  I see that you and I have some fundamental disagreements about economics.  It will take some thought to communicate my position sensibly in the context.  Meanwhile, I’ll just toss out the foregoing with the idle thought that it may help some idealist:  Make money.  Don’t stick your nose up at it:  “Generals think logistics”, and you can only paralyse yourself by lacking resources.  If you would get corrupted in the process of making money, then your precious principles are anyway too weak to sustain the hardships that you will undoubtedly endure for want of money.  Trust me, I know the cost.



I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?

Hmmm...  Because to anyone who is not totally stupid, it’s obvious that he they/it [sorry, Jay, for offensive use of correct pronouns] knows?

Any other brilliant questions?

Given this level of incomprehension, it may not actually be incomprehensible for someone to misunderstand what will happen if miners try to steal Segwit coins.
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September 09, 2020, 04:49:31 AM

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck,

Heh.  Not the first time I’ve gotten that.  But then, I agree with this:

It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

How’s this for what, from your perspective, Jay, would be a “crazy fuck”:  I have at various times spent several portions of my adult life voluntarily “unbanked”.  Cash-only.  On principle, because I hate the banks and I do not wish to associate with them, much less to depend on them.  Do I not have a right to choose not to have a goddamn bank account?  Yes, they have made it exceedingly difficult to live this way.

Well, maybe I have been being too harsh on you?


I am largely trying to figure out what regular people should be doing, and maybe I am presuming too much about people in the west with banking and credit.

We know that it is already more difficult to do anything if you do not have credit or banking, so maybe if you are already living in a situation in which you do not have those kinds of things, then you are not going to have other potentially quasi-liquid investments, such as 401ks, either.

I would recognize, too that it could be more difficult to store value in cash, and maybe some of the people in that kind of situation might historically store value in PMs such as gold or have other ways to store value, such as property.. but then not very liquid.

So surely if you already have been going through a lot of the inconveniences of no banking, then bitcoin largely provides more options rather than less options.  I may be merely presuming too much regarding prior existing avenues to store value.

I hate to concede that I might be guilty, but I will say that I do not proclaim to be such a stickler for anyone who is getting into bitcoin needs to have other assets but having other assets tends to be one of the individualistic factors that needs to be considered in terms of how much to allocate into bitcoin.

I do also like to suggest that if someone is new to investing or just starting investing, then frequently, they will start with one asset rather than being concerned about diversification or reallocation.  Diversification and reallocation will usually come after some period of time that assets might be built in one or more assets and when the person starts to become too allocated in one asset... so surely in some circumstances, there may be needs to start out investing into bitcoin first...

Maybe we are getting to much into individual peculiarities, and surely in a thread like this it would seem to be preferable to speak to situations that can be more broadly applied... because when we get into the nitty gritty of individual circumstances, there can be a lot of variation, and those, again, are cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and ability to manage portfolio, learn, trade, tweak from time to time.  Many times we are going to talk about those factors more generally as matters that each individual has to attempt to take into account when figuring out and implementing his approach to BTC and strategies.



(And here, I was nearly drawn into professional finance as a lad... it’s been a long road...)

Well, maybe you have whole systems that are different from the way that I think about some of these matters.

Are you suggesting that we should all attempt to take your approach, or what?


Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time. [...]

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

Yes, I wish that with my current level of life experience, I could go back in time and tell my younger self some more general version of this—not only about Bitcoin!  I have consistently screwed myself over this way.  Much of that thing I didn’t post a few days ago had to do with that.

Well, we cannot go back in time, but we can attempt to figure out if there are some adjustments that we should be making currently.

I feel a bit spoiled in my own situation; however, i still think that the approach that i have taken through my whole life has a lot of decent qualities, and still can be applied to other people.  I am not trying to impose any of my system on other people, but just to share some ideas that might be helpful in order that other members can better help themselves or to better think through ways to tweak their own practices.

We have had a lot of members disclose that they have had to cash some BTC at a time that is not of their own choosing or some other seeming calamities like that, and even though i have had pretty decent cashflow, i have even had times that cashflow can become quite tight, and usually it seems to be worse if we are in long periods of BTC correction - or even take that quick flash crash of March 12, 2020... there were a lot of BIG bitcoin holders who got fucked in that situation because they were not playing their cards right.  I am not just referring to mindrust, but there were some hedge funds that went under from smart bitcoin maximalists like this Murad Muhmudov, and I am thinking that a few others had really got screwed out of that quickie crash situation.

I think that part of my point is that we should be attempting to protect ourselves for both upwards and downards and sideways bitcoin price movements, and of course, some of this will have to do with attempting to make sure that we are hedged.

I don't want to be over leveraged in any asset, whether we are talking about the dollar or even bitcoin.  The dollar can serve as a safehaven in regards to our bitcoin investment, though when bitcoin does an outrageous crash, whether it is a quickie crash or a prolonged one... but of course, that does not necessarily mean that I would be in love with the dollar, even if i might keep a certain percentage of my wealth in dollars, for short term living expenses and also, just in case bitcoin crashes, then maybe I want to buy some more or just have the dollars in case bitcoin keeps on crashing even further... I would prefer NOT to be stuck with no assets if BTC were to go to zero, merely because I failed and refused to hedge, when previously I had been living pretty good and then all of a sudden I cannot even eat, lodge myself or other things that are in the lifestyle that i have grown accustomed.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
Most naïve youths lose their characteristic idealism in the moment that they catch the scent of money; I didn’t.  Instead of being pulled into the system, I went against it...  I sincerely never cared about money, until intense personal hardship beat into me the importance of having some; and at that point, it was too late to go back and spend wasted years differently.

I probably had some similar dynamics in my life.  Seems to me that I never really pursued money, but sometime soon after I had left highschool, I attended a course that taught personal finance matters, and I recall that through my life, I had always striven to live within my means, so I always had a decent percentage of my income that I had saved - even though I can recall periods of time in which I was not making very much money, but I still saved a percentage of my income. Many times I tried to target at least 10% savings, even though i know sometimes I might not have reached that exactly.  

For a period of time, I did have some fortune of having some decently high paying work, which caused me to be able to save something like 60% of the pay for a period of time - a bit ridiculous but I was getting paid way more than my living expenses.. and that savings from that job likely generated a decent amount of the value that I was later able to put into bitcoin (or at least the freedom to put large sums into bitcoin, because I was otherwise set in terms of the rest of my finances.. .. which again i consider that relatively high pay to have been moreso luck rather than something that i was specifically pursuing).

So, actually, I probably have some similar errors in my ways in that there were a decent number of years that I did not really pursue making a lot of money.. just living within my means, but my means could have been higher if I had made more money during some of those years.

As for the rest:  I see that you and I have some fundamental disagreements about economics.  

O.k.  Perhaps.

It will take some thought to communicate my position sensibly in the context.  

That might be helpful to point out the area of disagreement, if there is something besides my suggestion that one should not be 100% BTC, unless there is some quirky personal situation rationale for such.  

Meanwhile, I’ll just toss out the foregoing with the idle thought that it may help some idealist:  Make money.  Don’t stick your nose up at it:  “Generals think logistics”, and you can only paralyse yourself by lacking resources.  If you get corrupted in the process of making money, then your precious principles are anyway too weak to sustain the hardships that you will undoubtedly endure for want of money.  Trust me, I know.

Cannot really disagree with that part.  Some amount of financial cushion does seem like a good thing to have.



I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?

Hmmm...  Because to anyone who is not totally stupid, it’s obvious that he they/it [sorry, Jay, for offensive use of correct pronouns] knows?

Any other brilliant questions?

Given this level of incomprehension, it may not actually be incomprehensible for someone to misunderstand what will happen if miners try to steal Segwit coins.

Jbreher does seem to have a tendency to want to overly convolute matters, even though every once in a while he does make some decent points... When he gets ornery and if he is trying to defend BIG blocks or one of the bcashes, he does devolve into more tanglingtm and danglingtm nonsense, though... which the vast majority of us here do seem to recognize that angle of the picnic bear.
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September 09, 2020, 05:02:16 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

What JJG is saying nullius is that Bitcoin is an inelastic good (which did not exist before!). You can’t produce more to compensate for an increase in demand, or produce less when demand declines. Therefore not having bubbles or being stable at $10k is just wishful thinking at its current level of adoption.
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September 09, 2020, 06:16:17 AM
Merited by Phil_S (1)

Many look at the BTC price and doubt it's a hedge. High net worth individuals and funds certainly consider it to be true and betting on that with real money.

Since this latest round of USD money supply expansion, whales entities have increased their holdings of BTC markedly.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1303227612446117889?s=21
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September 09, 2020, 07:37:50 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

@JJG/nullius
I am not going to argue with you guys. You completely misread my quote
Quote
It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.
. I was referring to those jokes related to gender and such.
You guys are becoming a black hole. Cool

What JJG is saying nullius is that Bitcoin is an inelastic good (which did not exist before!). You can’t produce more to compensate for an increase in demand, or produce less when demand declines. Therefore not having bubbles or being stable at $10k is just wishful thinking at its current level of adoption.
Thank you bitebits! Cheesy
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September 09, 2020, 08:19:22 AM

The run to ATH has started

Continues
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September 09, 2020, 08:38:50 AM

Analyst Gives 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Could Bounce Back from $10K

https://thebitcoinnews.com/analyst-gives-3-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bounce-back-from-10k/
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September 09, 2020, 08:40:46 AM


I admit my first reaction was to check if it's some parody twitter account.

Turns out it's real.

 Grin
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September 09, 2020, 09:00:48 AM

Turns out it's real.

It's real (see discussion on btalk) and it's a follow up of the story where Peter Schiff publishes his son's Bitcoin wallet.

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September 09, 2020, 09:14:12 AM
Merited by NeuroticFish (1), Torque (1)


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September 09, 2020, 10:01:54 AM

Now we wait .. until #bitcoin  and S&P500 move up TOGETHER



https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1303634146527514624?s=21
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September 09, 2020, 10:09:05 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1)

https://twitter.com/luchopoletti/status/1303366711404625923?s=21

^cool  Cheesy
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September 09, 2020, 11:08:37 AM

$10,000 holding strong, give up bears, resistance is futile.

$13,000 coming soon......
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September 09, 2020, 12:09:03 PM



Coinfirmed.
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September 09, 2020, 01:02:45 PM

hope you all got in at 9960 and bought the dip!
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September 09, 2020, 01:14:32 PM

hope you all got in at 9960 and bought the dip!

9.8-ish we have seen overnight
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September 09, 2020, 01:15:39 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

$10,000 holding strong, give up bears, resistance is futile.

$13,000 coming soon......

This year resembles 2016 in so many ways - the halving, the recovery after 85% crash, and last but not least - various shitcoin pumps. It is very hard in general for a n00b to avoid the traps of the fast profit seeking with these pumps. They have both positive and negative effect on the Bitcoin price. Positive - because part of the trading is with Bitcoin pairs and so more Bitcoins are locked in these markets. Also, after 99% of the "traders" register losses, they come to their senses and understand that the only real profit is longterm by investing and hodling Bitcoin. Negative - the remaining 1% (usually the creators of the scam exits) harvest tens and hundreds of millions profit. The profit which is in bitcoins they have little hesitation to sell and dump the price. This is probably what happened in the last days with sushi exit scam and other defi shitcoins listed on binance as well. Perhaps the bears thought they can take advantage of this situation and put a pressure on 10K, but all this is in vain. They just can't hold the price any longer to fill their bags with cheap coins. This is not only the end of their sub 10K throw the kitchen sink efforts - this is the continuation of a massive bull run which, with several short pullbacks, should take us above 100K in few years. But hey, may be the bears will succeed in bringing the price below $100K for several months. And proudcon and other funny trolls will come and inform us that Bitcoin is dead and it is coming down to $60K. Same old, same old.  
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September 09, 2020, 01:27:19 PM

SMA-24-hours

stays over 10000




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September 09, 2020, 02:04:41 PM

The corrupt Wall Street trading cabal (of which Jim Cramer is a shill mouthpiece for) is worried about Bitcoin. Not about it taking over the world or anything like that, but because retail investors and traders are excited about trading/hodling in a digital commodity that the Cabal themselves cannot control. Because it's too late for them to come in and corner the Bitcoin market.

1. They cannot corner the Bitcoin market, i.e. gain 90%+ control over minted bitcoin, because the majority of mined bitcoin is already in the hands of "not-Wall Street". And the hodlers are spread out all over the world. This happened in the beginning years when Wall Street was laughing at and largely ignoring Bitcoin as a penny stock scam. They didn't even understand what it was exactly or why it should have value.

2. Bitcoin has to be mined by miners. The Cabal cannot artificially inflate it vis a vis just print more bitcoin, do phantom bitcoin, or fractional reserves (that last task is in the hands of the crypto exchanges, ones that they cannot control).

3. Because they cannot get huge, significant amounts of bitcoin for free, they cannot massively short it either.

4. They are accustomed to using massive leverage to move stonk markets (think 1000X or more), but that type of leverage is not permitted by the crypto exchanges because of risk management.

5. If they want huge amounts of bitcoin to play with, they have to buy it OTC or on the market exchanges like everyone else. And the amount they want has to be available. This is NOT how Wall Street does things.

So therefore they have little interest in Bitcoin itself, other than Bitcoin is luring Average Joes away from the corrupt stonk markets that they DO INDEED control. And this irritates them beyond belief. They literally WANT Average Joes back into the corrupt stonk market where they can rekt them all day long.

Everything I wrote before was just confirmed, by a guy that would know the Cabal (aka Wall Street) pretty well. The Bitcoin market might just be one of the last truly free markets on the planet.

https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1303421878888009728


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