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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26404701 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Cryptotourist
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September 11, 2020, 04:54:42 AM
Merited by VB1001 (5)

And here I thought that your secret agenda was to induce Woers subconsciously to fantasize about what if someone who is a stellar genius compared to proudhon were female.

I am not swayed by this conspiracy.

Our sordid affair is ongoing, so please stay tuned, and you will be perswayded. Wink


But... but... your GIF violates social distancing rules!  That’s just cruel.

I'm a natural born human whore, I don't do distancing.
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September 11, 2020, 04:55:18 AM
Last edit: September 11, 2020, 05:14:39 AM by JayJuanGee

It seems that I must have made a mistake here
Thats no mistake, but trading isnt just that simple, theres alot of nuance to it, especially market manipulation which will rekt you if your not careful

Surely, I don't play around with margin, but I still kind of have some ideas about what experienced traders are attempting to accomplish in terms of attempting to assign probabilities to a certain amount of BTC price movement in a certain amount of time.

If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, then such trader can play both sides of the anticipated BTC price direction.

So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.

Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.  Accordingly, the more success that a trader has in being able to establish the price direction with confidence, then the more that s/he can reach goals of getting the payouts that offset the losses.. we can tweak the numbers around of the hypothetical, but getting the profits to outweigh the losses seems to be the general idea, and of course, if there are are also some possibilities that from time to time the BTC price will run way greater than the 5% payout, causing the trader to get even greater payouts than 5% from time to time, but the same is true in the opposite direction of incurring more losses than expected, but the hypothetical is attempting to even out those scenarios in a kind of average expected payout that would be profitable in the long run so long as the profits are exceeding the losses.

Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.  

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.



From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  Huh

I do personally believe that there are several members who should work on making sure that they are giving proper attributions in terms of making sure that the words ideas of someone else are not appearing to be being claimed as their own.

It does seem that in Paashaas's case above, he was quoting someone else.. especially the chart, and he just failed to give proper attributions.  I would not consider that to quite rise to the level of plagiarism, but sure of course, admins/mods might consider those boundaries differently, so it is usually better for members to ongoingly attempt to be giving proper attributions in order NOT to be accused of plagiarism..... even if they just made an unintentional slip up, which seems to be the case of Paashaas...
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September 11, 2020, 05:18:11 AM



Contaminating your vital fluids, are they?


Yes.

+1 WOsMerit




---------

hey jjg

f-off   Grin

its almost friday




------
the late night wall report


#dyor
4h


D

#stronghands




 
nullius
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September 11, 2020, 05:32:50 AM

EV+ gambling is all trading is,

The “EV+” part is arguable. :-)

Can i interest you in some bitcoin defi?
The margin interest is going to be around 0.7% per year compared to binance's 10%, so its a better choice even if you dont give a shit about KYC or decentralization

Sure, I’m interested—if it’s private, secure, and reliable and if 0.7%/year margin interest isn’t too good to be true.

I saw you drop that link a few days ago.  The thread seemed long on hype and short on details of how it actually works; I stopped reading after
ZmnSCPxj’s very thoughtful post, which appears to be unanswered.  (Both ZmnSCPxj and gmaxwell, who +5ed that, know what the fuck they are talking about.)  I was going to ask something along the lines of, why not use or build toward the upcoming Spectrum project (Layer 3 smart-contract platform built on Lightning Network and RGB, with Simplicity as the formally verifiable smart contract language—and the privacy advantages of an off-chain protocol!), but didn’t bother.

I just went through the thread again, and peeked at the Github link (but see as yet no reason to spend time and effort trying to understand their code).

You seem interested in promoting that for some reason.  I would suggest that if you want to gain people’s trust, do fewer manifestos (preaching to the choir here) and more informative explanations about just how this works, what useful properties the system has, and why it should be trusted to not fail catastrophically.  Answering ZmnSCPxj’s post would probably be a good start.  (No, I don’t know him—but I have learned something new from almost every one of his posts that I’ve ever read on bitcoin-dev.)

Edit:  I followed up there.
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September 11, 2020, 05:39:46 AM


---------

hey jjg

f-off   Grin

its almost friday


It is too late, toxicmoxic.   Tongue





Protip:  We (the royal we, of course) use universal time in these here parts.   Shocked


Sucks to be you  too late.... with what could have been a great idea....     Cry


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 11, 2020, 05:58:19 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  Huh

Are you blind? You can see the credits in the image.

even if they just made an unintentional slip up, which seems to be the case of Paashaas...

My excuses, i'll add the link next time it will save time for clicker lovers.
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September 11, 2020, 06:21:32 AM

40% can program a bit, 30% works in finance. Target audience of my tweets is only 12%

Must be difficult for the 43% to understand key financial topics (CAPM, B&S, QE, NIRP, UBI) and key bitcoin elements (P2P, ECDSA, POW, SHA) .. and why BTC is such a unique & important invention
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1304124701531402240?s=21

This is exactly why bitcoin is so undervalued. Most financial managers don't get the tech and most tech people have no monetary knowledge.

Huge opportunities for people who get both.
https://twitter.com/gkboris/status/1304125814120820736?s=21

My point exactly! I know brilliant financial people who dont even take the effort of reading the white paper. And great programmers who know nothing about money and investing. I wrestle with that!
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1304127438583140357?s=21

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September 11, 2020, 06:25:40 AM

I'm a natural born human whore, I don't do distancing.

Ha, ha, you got a short circuit in your brain, Hero,  incoming, congrats Wink
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September 11, 2020, 06:58:43 AM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1), nullius (1)

following on from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55140469#msg55140469

https://twitter.com/BVBTC/status/1304204057448460295?s=20



https://www.knowyourhashrate.com/

need to decentralise mining pools. right fucking now

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-August/014893.html

https://utxos.org/uses/miningpools/

Quote
Betterhash is half way there, second layers like Lightning improve the scalability of old concepts like P2Pool, and if we get it in script OP_CTV enables whole new option regarding decentralizing the coordination for pooled mining trustlessly.
https://twitter.com/brian_trollz/status/1304226468587855874?s=20
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September 11, 2020, 07:02:13 AM

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.



From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  Huh

All good, except bad aussie man does such Smiley

nullius
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September 11, 2020, 07:06:25 AM

So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.

Jay, let’s take this as scientific gambling:  Pop those numbers into the Kelly criterion!

If I believed that SwayStar could reliably gain 5% on even close to 40/60 odds (acknowledging that that’s just your off-the-cuff example probability, not what she claimed) versus 1% losses, then I would practically beg her to let me send her all of my money right now, on agreement to let her keep half the profit (or hell, even most of it) as a management fee—just keep hitting those trades!  Because I would get rich quick that way.

Really, do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation.  Geometric growth (what Kelly addresses) is funny.  “Turn 0.005 BTC into 1 BTC” kind of funny, and more.

Of course, I’m not exactly doing that.  Just call me a skeptic.

If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, [...]

Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.

Yeah... about that...

Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.

If you could be certain of the odds, and if the odds are EV+, Kelly bets that roll profits back into the pot are, of course, mathematically optimal for growth in the sense of “I no longer care what the market does, because my portfolio already went to the moon”.  Confirmed science, lulz.  (Hey, there’s that “IF” again.)

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  Huh

I do personally believe that there are several members who should work on making sure that they are giving proper attributions in terms of making sure that the words ideas of someone else are not appearing to be being claimed as their own.

There is certainly a difference between plagiarism and improper attribution.  I could quote some academic integrity discussions on that, but then, you know, I’d need to attribute them, and I am just too lazy for that right now.

Protip:  We (the royal we, of course) use universal time in these here parts.   Shocked

UTC is the Internet anonymity time zone.



I just think its really cool lmao, im not part of the development team, i might help them a bit with marketing tho,

Check out RGB/Spectrum.  It’s still in the relatively early stages, but seems to have competent people involved; and IIUC, it’s being backed somehow (?) by Tether people.  (I would guess that somebody is probably sick and tired of running on a network cries out in pain from the load of all the USDT flying around.)



Our sordid affair is ongoing, so please stay tuned, and you will be perswayded. Wink

I think that I already am.  Did you hear?  SwayStar is going to make me rich!




I did a double-take when I saw Sr. with 500 merits due to slow server update.  Nice move.
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September 11, 2020, 07:36:03 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (3)

[important message embedded in an image]

need to decentralise mining pools. right fucking now

[important links]

Damn, V8s, important message posted while I was writing long thing.

The deeper problem is ASICs.  Special-purpose hardware can be controlled on the supply side.  What happens if mining hardware requires a licence to purchase?  What, you think they won’t go that far to prevent terrorist laundering and money financing?



I am in Bitcoin because it is more or less our last hope.

I intended to write of this recently...  I actually don’t believe in much of the maximalist economic stuff.  Yes, Bitcoin has long-term fundamentals and will increase in value.  No, I don’t buy that it will become a “world reserve currency”; that’s a terribly naïve proposition, whereas it will never be allowed by bankers who can’t control it—bankers who control tens of trillions of dollars in assets, own governments and thus militaries, tanks, ICBMs, and nuclear weapons, start wars at the drop of a hat, topple governments like toys and kill millions of people...  Do you really suppose that their lunch can be eaten by some software on the Internet, which, by the way, they also own and could shut down at any time?

If Bitcoin fails, there is really nothing else to shield us from being crushed into total, inescapable enslavement through the lethal combination of scam fractional-reserve “money”, total financial surveillance, and KYC-everything permission systems.

Bitcoin gives us some freedom of action to strive to obtain more freedom—if we choose to do so.

All other freedoms depend on financial freedom.  For only one example, just try to exercise the freedom of speech if financial censorship and financial surveillance can be used to ensure that you cannot buy even a crust of bread without permission, and you can be physically located at any time.  For only one example.
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September 11, 2020, 07:57:01 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Trading is for gamblers, it’s like betting on sports. The only way to guarantee profits in bitcoin is to HODL. Nobody loses if they can afford to HODL for 5+ years.

Stop gambling & have some patience. U less you’re a whale you can not control the market. Even then you could get REKT.

HODL.....
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September 11, 2020, 08:05:16 AM

The decentralization of bitcoin is a myth like the fair election of US presidents. Who has a button from the Internet - he rules the bitcoin
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September 11, 2020, 08:43:42 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $10,260
Still sideways!
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September 11, 2020, 08:43:44 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Snip

I am afraid there will always be two bitcoin economies: a regulated and dark one. Probably the in between will not be possible. It's either one will transact on the bitcoin protocol following its rules (coin control, coinjoin, LN etc.) or, on the other hand, he will stay in the KYC/AML/FATF bitcoin world. Surely we need some privacy adjustments for everyone. The average newbie is not able to protect himself and does not even know what this is all about.
 Roll Eyes
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September 11, 2020, 08:45:13 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

Ah, Sway, now you are just being coy.  Admit it:  You are tickled by the idea that, depending on whose opinion you believe, either the forum’s most eloquent sesquipedalian genius or the forum’s most arrogant jerk wanted to send all of his money to you—if but only you could achieve the impossible!  (“Focus on the IF.”)

By the way, I hope you don’t mind if, at this juncture, I kindly request that you apply at least a modicum of correct grammar to your posts.  This is not to be rude, much less to make a grammar flame.  Your posts are actually difficult to read; you would be a more effective communicator, if you at least formed proper sentences and used apostrophes where appropriate.  This isn’t Twitter.  I am trying to help, if only so that I can better understand your financial insights.

For you see, I am all about peace, harmony, and cute kittensReally.  Ask anyone here.



The decentralization of bitcoin is a myth like the fair election of US presidents. Who has a button from the Internet - he rules the bitcoin

Don’t get me started.

I think the correct choice is neither.

Loading image of Tweedledum and Tweedledee...

This is why I say:  Don’t vote.  By voting, you grant your moral and practical political endorsements to a corrupt system:  An ochlocracy manipulated by a plutocracy.  The result is kakocracy:  Rule of the worst.



Stop gambling

Personal text:

Quote
One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos

Thanks; I’m not actually trading.  I am only discussing with SwayStar whether or not she wants to take all of my money and gamble with it.
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September 11, 2020, 08:57:21 AM

JJG finally found someone to have a race with 😝
Good luck brother!
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September 11, 2020, 08:59:36 AM
Last edit: September 11, 2020, 09:26:00 AM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

There is a reason if Stamp is the WO reference exchange: they are leading the pack:

Bitstamp Integrates Nasdaq’s Matching Engine for Faster Order Executions


Quote
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp has implemented a new matching engine from Nasdaq’s technology vendor that it says greatly speeds up trading.


On a casual Virtual meetup with Paolo Ardoino, your fellow Fillippone asked the Bitfinex CTO how the "traditional exchanges" could help heat-up  the crypto exchange competition. Ardoino mentioned their expertise on matching engine expertise citing the NASDAQ engine being one order of magnitude faster than their current one (yes, 10x faster is no joke).


EDIT: link https://youtu.be/VxSKy7x7Wiw?t=5190

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September 11, 2020, 09:02:14 AM
Merited by Torque (1)

[important message embedded in an image]

need to decentralise mining pools. right fucking now

[important links]

Damn, V8s, important message posted while I was writing long thing.

The deeper problem is ASICs.  Special-purpose hardware can be controlled on the supply side.  What happens if mining hardware requires a licence to purchase?  What, you think they won’t go that far to prevent terrorist laundering and money financing?



I am in Bitcoin because it is more or less our last hope.

I intended to write of this recently...  I actually don’t believe in much of the maximalist economic stuff.  Yes, Bitcoin has long-term fundamentals and will increase in value.  No, I don’t buy that it will become a “world reserve currency”;

I know this is impossible, but I would like to know what Hal Finney would think of the overall Bitcoin situation, exchanges, forks, asics farms, long shorts, bets
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