Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TrustedBitcoiner]

kind of looks like the explosive move is done (might be to soon to say for sure )
question now is, will it hold, grind to 23K? or fall!?  

[JayJuanGee]

I honestly hope that there are no cheaper entrees anymore for them who where not willing to buy at 70-80% down.

I sunk a nice piece of change back in btc mining gear. More than an entire btc.
I used a cc. Got 15 months interest free. Did buys of miners in sept oct nov dec and jan.

I also got three dips in Nov and a Nov DCA every Friday.

So far so good. Be nice to see a true rally say 30k and then a nice flat strech.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that... It does not like to be told what to do, nor to tell it when to do it, but it does not mind if you look at the charts after it did what it is going to do in order to try to describe what it had done.

It seems that some folks have difficulties merely describing historical performance.. so how are they going to get future performance correct with any degree of specifics?

When I say it's going, you say down!

it's going ?  

Down.

Note:  One of the challenges is that it does not matter what "we" say in regards to what the price of dee cornz is going to do.. since  It may well be the case that king daddy will just end up doing the opposite, merely to teach uie-pooie a lesson.. even if many of us already realize that uie pooie may well not be teachable.

I do believe that this rally signals the 15.5K bottom, but I do not believe the market will just run away and leave me behind. Inflation or Recession  or Both!?, these are the options people... but sure drain oil reserves to make CPI print look ok for a minute that'll save us! ... it's going to be a tough year for markets bitcoin included.

Does not mean that it is a good idea to short it when the BTC price is about 75% below the November 2021 top and also about 31% below the 200-week moving average.  That does not seem to be very smart.. even if you might be able to keep doubling down on your dumb bet until we get to $50k.

So if the economy really *isn't* fucked and things *are* ok overall then we should start seeing 10k jumps in a day, then some selling, then another 10k jump. We shall see.

TLDR: Maybe things aren't fucked, and we have been sold a bill of goods called DOOM!!!!!

Macroeconomically I still think things are f'd in the US of A. Without a diligent and fierce Volcker approach to crush inflation, it continues to fester. I do not mind this, and maybe the "new" paradigm for world economies runs on inflation/debt to fake growth as the depopulation plateau begins to show its face here on earth. So legacy finance cooks the books harder than ever, and the Fed tip-toes letting inflation rest around 4% indefinitely. The CPI is misleading as is, and it is getting changed for... reasons.

The other route is the hard one, and we will have to  see bitcoin live through a true (not flash) recession/contraction.

There are many things I like about btc, but one is that it's my bet against the FED, the WEF, the IMF. Watching FED fumbling inflation has been a pleasure

I feel that I don't really agree with your analysis cmacwuz (even though as I typed more of my responsive post, I ended up having some difficulties articulating the extent to which I am having "troubles" with it) but I sent you a merit anyhow with a hope that maybe you will participate more (in this thread, for example) in order that some of us might be able to tell you the various ways that you seem to be wrong.

On thing it seems as if Powell is trying some 2022/2023 variation of Volcker's approach, and it seems difficult to conclude that he is not having quite a bit more success than many folks had considered to be even possible.

Another thing is that even though I kind of understand and appreciate what you are saying, I doubt that bitcoin is a "bet against" the various status quo institutions that are fucking around with the money and their various demonstrations of desperation...   For sure it seems that bitcoin is going to continue to contribute towards providing an Opt out of those various corrupt systems and likely a lot of current bitcoiners would likely devolve into some level of crazy if they did not have bitcoin as an option that can offset the craziness that seems to be going on with the unsustainable monetary matters in the current system.. even though surely the current system might still be able to continue to deceive normies into believing it is working for a few more cycles.. though the extremes are already pretty bad and pretty desperate, so they might consider that they are going to have to play harder ball, even though it is kind of difficult to understand if they might actually be able to pull off the lack of system collapse, which they might be considering to be the "softlanding" that hurts some folks more than others.. but gosh, I would hate if we really did end up going into Armageddon.. which could happen if we wish for the demise of status quo governmental and financial to happen too quickly.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

I do believe that this rally signals the 15.5K bottom, but I do not believe the market will just run away and leave me behind. Inflation or Recession  or Both!?, these are the options people... but sure drain oil reserves to make CPI print look ok for a minute that'll save us! ... it's going to be a tough year for markets bitcoin included.

Does not mean that it is a good idea to short it when the BTC price is about 75% below the November 2021 top and also about 31% below the 200-week moving average.  That does not seem to be very smart.. even if you might be able to keep doubling down on your dumb bet until we get to $50k.

I buy the dips and sell the rips, this is my contribution to price discovery  
watching price and placing bets, doubling down, taking profits, cutting losses. Its fun.
come on you know you wana play  

[Negotiation]

Source

when see BTC price $21k the relax mode on fly up BTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now allowed banks to now hold 2% of their reserves in cryptocurrencies as per its recently released Prudential Treatment of Crypto Asset exposure report for December 2022. In June, the BIS had allowed only a few banks to hold not more than 1% of their reserves in cryptos.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647

Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

[Biodom]

Too bad ChatGPT membership is now closed (who knows for how long).

At least, I have my WO 'membership' where I can partake in ChatGPT "funnies", albeit without an ability to ask for some myself.

BTW, it would make a perfect sense for some AI to make a play to accumulate bitcoin...just in case, lol.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm waiting for a $25k price, the whole market would go crazy and the buy starts, who is insane enough to sell Bitcoin now?

Traders.

Bears.

People who don't give too many fucks about price.

Another thing relates to specifics, no?  If someone has 1,000 BTC, he could sell something in the ballpark of 1 BTC and not give any shits..   similarly someone with 1 BTC could sell 100,000 satoshis and not give too many shits, so maybe it is a matter of degree.. too.. but hey maybe we have different ideas about what might be considered insane?

By the way, I am pretty sure that there are at least a couple of resistance points between current price and $25k, so you are correct that getting there might contribute towards a certain level of bullishness; however, historically, I have frequently gotten nervous when the BTC price goes up too quickly in terms of whether it will keep going up.. and we could all of a sudden end up having a 2 weeks to 2 month pause in the upward price movement.. and many times those pauses end up resulting in decent amounts of retracement.. including that the whole UPPity that had been witnessed could end up transitioning into DOWNity.. which surely I doubt that we could even have confidence about being out of our bear market, yet.

I am feeling very bullish this morning. I think we can get back to $30,000 in the next couple of months. I think by the end of March we will have recovered to there and at the end of the year we might push higher then the previous ATH. What do you think?

 

I think that if we go towards anywhere between $30k and $50k in the coming few months, then we are likely to have a decent sized correction of at least 20%, but it could get into the 40% to 50% arena..

I think that there is a resistance at current price and also at $24k-ish, and then again at $30k... and probably some others on the way up.. but hey, I doubt that any of us should feel that we have to bank on the BTC price going up in order to profit.. - even though I know some folks want to get back over some of their buy cost thresholds, but if you keep buying when the BTC price is down, with the passage of time, your BTC price cost threshold comes down.. that is part of the benefits of DCA and also buying below your average cost per BTC... seems to improve your chances of profiting from your investment into bitcoin in the long term.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

price has increased 12 days in a row


https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169


every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see  

[Biodom]

price has increased 12 days in row


https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169


every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see  

Straight 8 green weekly candles in Oct-Nov 2013 (from $143 to about $1200).
Now, THAT was a pump (%-wise).
Of course, with btc at about $400 bil mcap, I don't expect 700% in a few weeks  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now allowed banks to now hold 2% of their reserves in cryptocurrencies as per its recently released Prudential Treatment of Crypto Asset exposure report for December 2022. In June, the BIS had allowed only a few banks to hold not more than 1% of their reserves in cryptos.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647
Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

There is an exponential aspect to doubling.

In regards to bitcoin specifically, I would suggest anywhere between 1% and 25% for someone who is a responsible grownup.. so yeah, maybe banks have to work their lil selfies up towards the higher end of the range... .. but if they are actually contemplating shitcoins or "crypto" then fuck that nonsense, I am not even sure if 1% would be tolerable for that.. maybe 0.25% at most?... or maybe up to 1% of the bitcoin amount.

I do believe that this rally signals the 15.5K bottom, but I do not believe the market will just run away and leave me behind. Inflation or Recession  or Both!?, these are the options people... but sure drain oil reserves to make CPI print look ok for a minute that'll save us! ... it's going to be a tough year for markets bitcoin included.

Does not mean that it is a good idea to short it when the BTC price is about 75% below the November 2021 top and also about 31% below the 200-week moving average.  That does not seem to be very smart.. even if you might be able to keep doubling down on your dumb bet until we get to $50k.

I buy the dips and sell the rips, this is my contribution to price discovery  
watching price and placing bets, doubling down, taking profits, cutting losses. Its fun.
come on you know you wana play  

What you are describing doesn't make me too excited... but I do get excited about various BTC accumulation strategies that relate to attempts to long term invest into BTC.. that can evolve into maintenance and or liquidation strategies, but to me it sounds like you are in the habit of some form of gambling.. which call me a fud dud, but I do not get too excited in engaging in selling strategies that are used to accumulate more bitcoin, unless you have already reached a considerable level of profits.. so that may well not really be having a sell to accumulate more component, but instead a sell to insure against some downside risk.. and really not expecting to profit in great ways, even though if you follow my system long enough it does seem to have pretty high likelihoods of being profitable...

... and I am not even sure if I give too many shits about profitability measurements, especially in the short term.. but for me it provides a kinds of psychological and financial balancing that tends to be comfortable for me...which seems to be pretty profitable in terms of long term tendencies and that is likely because bitcoin has been profitable long term and likely these kinds of considerations would be applicable to some others as well,.... perhaps? perhaps? .. even if they may well not know it.. not that I am trying to sell anything or convince anyone to follow in my ways .. peeps can do what the fuck they want, and peeps should be employing their own due diligence and discretion within their own judgement of their circumstances, even though I have been sharing my ideas for free in this thread for almost 9 years... and sometimes they are not very smart ideas, either.. so up to uie poo-ie if you might find some value in my posts.. oh yeah and another thing is that I find value in my own posts.. so there is that angle too..  my motivations to post are not necessarily benevolent in their ways of getting me to sit down and tap out some word-salads.

price has increased 12 days in row

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169
every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see   

I would hate to rely too much on that kind of a seemingly random indicator.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

.....

Boring... but thanks for taking the effort.

Boring?... AKA ... there's nothing in there that takes the piss out of JB and matches my narrative...so "boring"...lol.

Yes, yes, I hear ya.

Been telling myself to worry less about politics and other things I can't change anyway and spend more time on my creative hobbies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Source

when see BTC price $21k the relax mode on fly up BTC

That cat appears to have a fifth leg with a human foot. Freaky.

[OutOfMemory]

Hm, my transaction from broker to wallet (2.4 sat/byte) is still unconfirmed after one hour 
Not that i worry, but this is the first time i didn't receive at least one confirmation within at least 30 minutes...
Mining WO's, is there something up that i missed?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation