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I didn't have any time horizon when I came to Bitcoin. It was an experiment, not an investment.
Well? Maybe you were traumatized by your entry date? If we were to use your forum registration date to approximate your entry into bitcoin date, then for sure those were dramatic times... the day before the hardfork... I could appreciate how anyone newly coming into bitcoin might have some pause at that particular time... like? What the fuck is going on? And some of the exchanges were even saying that they were not going to allow transactions for several hours around the fork time because they were not sure what was going to happen.. which all makes sense from an exchange perspective and surely could inpire uncertainties from anyone freshly coming into bitcoin, even if we do not account for your other particulars.
Over the years I learned more about what I got into, and that helped me to get a longtime view.
So like you I developed a longterm view over time. And I see many other newbs for whom that process is similar.
Even within the minority group of folks who at least somewhat favorably disposed or inclined to give it a chance (and look into it), there can be a variety of paths, including variations in regards to the extent that any of us might believe going down the shitcoin path might be part of our initial investigation (and/or due diligence) journey.
I remember the first (rather young) guy I "converted" complaining after a year that he'd "only" doubled his money and has not gotten rich yet. After hearing such an ungrateful bs, I gave him a proper bat slapping. And he's been a diamond hand holder for many years ever since.
Wow.. you have influences over people.
I remember quite a few fairly powerful arguments in 2017-ish in this forum and some other places that I was posting in regards to shitcoiners who were pumping their bullshit by asserting that their coin had gone up 2x or 3x or even 4x as much as BTC, and grandpa coin BTC had little to no UPpity potential because it had already matured and had been on the market for 7 years or more.. so no pumpamentals.. so in that regard, I am like ongoingly arguing to say things like :"holy fucking shit, we have BTC going from $250 to $1k in a year (that's 4x), and then we ended up at $2,500 and that is 10x, and then you know that the price kept going up to $19,666 (which is 78x), and I am supposed to be disappointed because at various points in that journey some shitcoin was going up faster than BTC? Those were ridiculous ways to try to propagandize various shitcoins and to proclaim that bitcoin was inferior blah blah blah..
Maybe my surrounding is just special (which I don't believe). But I guess it's more about how I talk to people approaching me.
Of course, there can be various demographic matters in which can cause you to have some different kinds of audiences, and maybe even different assessments in regards to your conversion success rate.
I definitely make sure to tell them as much as I can about the extreme suffering most hodlers endure(d) during 80-90 % down turns. And boy I have some emotional damage to share
For sure, I don't believe in ONLY sharing upside... even though it is o.k to talk about both, and surely the world-experiences of people can sometimes affect how any of us might talk with someone about bitcoin, including attempting to figure out what they already know or believe.
After having repeatedly presented this disclaimer absolutely unambiguously, only then I tell them about the possibilities Bitcoin gives you (technology-wise), all while reminding them constantly that everything could go to zero anytime (I know that is almost impossible, but I want them to take the full responsibility for their decision).
So in short my pitch is:
You will take a lot of shit and suffering. It might all be futile. There is no guaranty for any gain. Seeing the proper results will take many many years. Tech-wise BTC is a new paradigm for humanity. Your decision.
... and it seems to work
Yeah.. it seems that we might cover some similar materials, from an informational sense.
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JJG
mining sets the floor price.
I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to :
5-6 cent power
and top of the line gear.
basically we hit that in november .
I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run.
But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom.
please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery.
Yeah.. believe what you like. I already mentioned several times that I think that those folks who are trying to figure out bitcoin price moves based on hash are like the cave dwellers looking at shadows.. so it is not like you are going to convince me that there are needs to reconsider the power of the difficulties and hash costs in terms of BTC's price direction blah blah blah... even if you now try to Monday morning quarter back and make some adjustments to theorize about the bottom may or may not be in blah blah blah.
Yes.. .cost of hash is one factor that affects BTC price... but it is a pretty teenie tiney weenie ass factor.. so don't miss the forest for the trees while you are analyzing those various shadows (including wondering what Jay Powell might gonna say?) to strive to find correlations and then subsequently find some kind of way of asserting causation from your gobble-dee-gook lackings.. ..
In udder wurds.. you do you... and you are likely going to get push back.. but whatever that's your choice if you want to keep making those kinds of largely non-substantiated claims.. then go ahead.... another analogy is the dog tail one.. what wags the tail/dog? Do you need a hint..? [insert cat]
I have done difficulty posts for years in the mining section as I use your ideas and some others to help determine bottoms for BTC.
Good for uie pooie..
merely because no one gave you push back does not mean that your proclamations about bitcoin price following hash mean shit.... Lot's of folks have similar nonsense theories about BTC price dynamics, and they tend to be full of shit if they are suggesting that price follows hash..
So we apparently left the bottom but we could test it again which is why continued investment in mining gear and long term growth of it is very important to have rising btc foundation setttings.
Good luck with that.
It might work, and it might not. It appears quite inadequate and incomplete even if you believe it a lot.
Good for miners. Interesting development.
Next step is banning oil and coal to mine.
So a miner with 400kwatts of solar is still safe I wonder who that could be?
Why would it be good for miners? You think that striving to cut off small players from the banking/bitcoin system is good for miners? That's ridiculous.
By the way, this whole thing (attempt at a world-wide attack) must have been contrived at the Davos WEF (World Economic Forum) banking conference .. .. and so will underground be the next way forward for the normies in cryptos (and bitcoin)? Will more peer to peer develop? Will other other on-off ramps be developed and come available for normie access? Are they ONLY going to be restricting "on-ramps" but not "off-ramps", so far?
Poll
