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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 52 (24.1%)
2024 - 85 (39.4%)
2025 - 59 (27.3%)
2026 - 4 (1.9%)
2027 - 2 (0.9%)
After 2027 - 4 (1.9%)
Never - 10 (4.6%)
Total Voters: 216

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26086245 times)
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December 16, 2022, 12:57:37 AM


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December 16, 2022, 02:59:35 AM

chart buddy is getting anxious. 3 minutes on the hour stead of 1 minute past.
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December 16, 2022, 04:33:23 AM

I guess its back to my Friday dca.
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December 16, 2022, 04:43:26 AM

Check out this ratatouille-type article:

https://slate.com/technology/2022/12/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-bitcoin-vs-crypto.html

...mixed together a bunch of different opinions.
Is this how non-AI journo's are writing these days?
One thing is for sure..he/she thinks that if something goes temporarily down in price, then it means that it's ideas are inferior/terrible.
Gawd.
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December 16, 2022, 05:46:35 AM
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People in Africa are embracing bitcoin WITHOUT internet using feature phones.

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December 16, 2022, 05:52:19 AM

.... if you have rank up, you can earn by signing

it's you again  Roll Eyes


People in Africa are embracing bitcoin WITHOUT internet using feature phones.



please, post something we don't already know for years...
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December 16, 2022, 07:57:37 AM


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December 16, 2022, 08:05:16 AM


Image copy from Telegram

Is "crypto" in the room with us, now?

I can hear Jay's Keyboard sound at my place. Not sure why.

Oh My!

You may well need a batslap, just to relieve you....   Tinnitus, perhaps?

snip
Your original assertion was that Bitcoin has decoupled from the stock market.
I was not asserting anything.  I was rebutting Philip's assertion.
.. .
JJG this is sad you sound like a fucking politician

Hm?  Maybe you don't understand the difference?  I was responding to your comment...   Maybe it amounts to the same thing, but I felt no burden to have to prove whatever point that I was making.  If I was making a point on my own, then maybe I would need to provide some better evidence... maybe.

reminds me of this one. by good old Bill Clinton
"it depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is"?

I don't think so.  What I said does not seem the same as what Clinton said.  And, sure Clinton is famous for that testimony... Famous for other things too.. but still.

You made the assertion that my assertion was wrong.

Just say you did that and move on.

I am not changing my view on this or my way of framing it.  I already made my points.  Do you want to go over it again substantively?  Did I miss something?  Does more need to be said?  Yeah a bunch of fucking dweebs are going to continue to argue correlation.. and I am going to continue to say that is bullshit.. unless the evidence changes... which it might.. but it has not changed so far, from my way of thinking about it.  What else needs to be said?  Which aspect do you want to argue?  Do you want to continue to argue correlation?   

Yes, you give more weight to those correlation arguments, and could be part of the reason that you hardly have any BTC after 11 years in bitcoin.  Sure there are likely other reasons that you hardly have any BTC as you had explained, and I have already asserted many times my belief that you continue to make some of the similar mistakes as you have historically been making, which is not stacking enough bitcoin.. but whatever.. you do you.  Maybe whatever you are doing currently is going to end up working out for you, this time?  Maybe?

BTW if you think I am a believer in fiat you are fucking clueless.

I am going based on things that you have said, and you are frequently pumping that nonsense...including being all excited about the interest rates on Ibonds.. blah blah blah.  I am attempting to go based on what you have been saying rather than just making shit up.. .

I am a realist. I think the filling statement is closer to what I believe

"Fiat has a shit ton of people with guns and will continue to defend itself against BTC"

I also think  "why use guns when you can create shit like STX using a stooge like SBF"

Sure... But so what.  I don't disagree with those statements.  There has always been a lot going on in BTC, and sure I can criticize you for your BTC approach going back 11 years, and maybe I can applaud you for accumulating and stacking more sats in the past few years?  But you still frequently say some things that cause me to conclude that you are not coming to the right kinds of balances, including regarding how you talk about how to accumulate BTC and then how to maintain BTC investment.

Finally I think "Be like JJG just DCA BTC"

You don't really believe that.  Yeah, currently you are DCAing, but you sold while the BTC price was going down in order that you can buy back cheaper.  That's a different strategy.  Sure, such strategy might end up working out for you, but it is not a "be like JJG just DCA BTC" strategy.. .. and even though I have tended to put a lot of emphasis on DCA, especially for beginner bitcoiners, I still try to emphasize tailoring your approach to the situation.. which would be weighted towards accumulating BTC in the beginning with an emphasis on DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing. 

Then once you establish your BTC stash, then you will have more flexibility to sell on the way up and buy on the way down... so selling and buying lower is not really anything that I would suggest, even if you got lucky with your doing it this time, and sure maybe once you have sold, then sure DCAing would be part of the strategy to buy back and also buying on dips... so I cannot really disagree with that part.. but whenever I had historically sold more BTC than what my otherwise normal strategies would guide (maybe the last time was around 2016 -- I cannot remember exactly.. but it is not something that I usually do), I get nervous about not having enough BTC and I tend to buy back way too soon.. so I pretty much stopped trying to sell any BTC to buy back lower.. because it does not tend to work for me.. at least not so far in my bitcoin journey.. and it seems to not be necessary.. even though I can see why people might be lured into that kind of an approach.
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December 16, 2022, 09:35:32 AM

Maybe we get a further bottom.. and maybe we don't.

Maybe such bottom is quick and a wick and maybe it is not.  
Sure, maybe the sun comes up tomorrow, or maybe it will not.
Maybe the Earth is round, or maybe it is not.

You believe that your examples are the same?  You've got logical fallacy (or would it be called analogy-choosing deficiencies?) issues.  No?

You name it, I can go on all day, but it all boils down to what each one of us believes is more likely.

Sure, when we are attempting to predict the future, it does boil down to which facts and logic we believe to be more relevant in regards to assigning probabilities, including how certain we might be about some kinds of things happening or not, and sure there are some beliefs in there too - because whenever we are talking about the future, we are referring to a variety of factors so sometimes we will admit that we do not have all the facts that we need or we might not be sure about the logic.. and also we have human behavior that has not yet been executed that we do not know it advance, even if we might place some of the human behavior into predictive categories too.. that might not exactly be knowable..


That is proof that you suffer mentally -
Proof you said? Pfff.

I should have said "this is poof."

- or unless you are a low coiner or a no coiner.
Compared to you or other OG’s, sure, I might be a low coiner.

Aw shucks!



But kindly don’t insult me by calling me a no coiner.

Why get so emotional?

BTW, define low coiner.

I cannot really know for sure, but maybe if you have less than what you should have in BTC in accordance with your finances and psychology measurements that you have to make.  I tend to recommend an investment portfolio that is between 1% and 25% for newbies starting out, yet each person has to figure out his her proper balance.. so a low coiner would be someone who is being overly whimpy whether intentionally or accidentally.

I know that no coiners and low coiners are "having a blast" from these recently low ("discounted") BTC prices.
Sorry to spoil your bubble here, but I did not expect to see these prices [below $20k] ever again, so yeah - I was pleasantly surprised.

Stop enjoying it... whether pleasantly or otherwise.   Angry Angry Angry

Also try to remember [new patch available] that I sold only half of my coins in the last bull run, and yet I’m still having blast.

Wow.  That's a lot.  Selling that much might well 'splain some of your good mood, currently.


Could be, because I never cared much about money, or ever will.

Are you trying to suggest that you are on a higher plane than everyone else here?

Have you realized that we are in a thread in which we are talking about bitcoin.. which is a form of money?.. sure it has other characteristics too, but bitcoin is the topic of this thread.

"They" decided that JJG had some chores that s/he/it had to do around the house... so JJG is just fine.. just had to do those referenced chores around the house.

Oh, I’m sorry to hear that.
Low coiner me, can afford to have someone do the chores, perhaps high coiner you, should do the same, yo.

1) do you believe that it is beneficial or even desirable to delegate all things?

2) have we established that this cat happens to be a higher coiner than any other cat, including you?

That way you can bust our balls here 24/7. Lips sealed

In theory, that would be great.

I’m a visual person Jay, so take a pick:
a)

b)


For what am I choosing?  Are you trying to undermine OPsec of a peep?  Shame on uie-pooie.   Angry Angry Angry Angry

Here is the ultimate irony though:

Once mass layoffs being in Jan/Feb and the MSM confirms that "We are *definitely* in a recession now!", all markets (including bitcoin) will rally.

Yep, rally.  Makes total sense.  Tongue
my take:

btc either already bottomed or might do so by March.
Somewhere during q1 we will get a large surprise in inflation (on the downside).
Stocks would initially crash fearing deflation and interest rates being too high.
Fed will dilly dally for a month or so, then succumb and cut short term rates (Cramer would be screaming on CNBC again how "they just don't get it").
Of course, before doing so they would declare victory, alas, markets would respond to the cut with a ferocious downswing that would indicate that Fed was wrong again and raised too much.
Bottom by Q2 in equities (bitcoin flat), then a gigantic rally in "everything" with bitcoin going up at least 2-3X (from today's prices).
After that...hard to say.

AT this particular moment, it is hard to argue with that kind of a scenario... .. but now that you wrote it down, it is NOT likely to happen..

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


You shouldn't have said anything.

I am considering that we might well be in a period that might be close to bottom for fiat-related bullshit.. .. so in essence fiat is largely sideways. and bitcoin does not necessarily do bad in "fiat sideways" kinds of scenarios... so "fiat sideways" bitcoin trickling up and trickling up.. and if bitcoin trickles up too much, then that becomes problematic for no coiners, low coiners and bitcoin naysayers.. because value ends up gravitating in bitcoin's direction.. so higher levels of desperation, attacks and battles against bitcoin could be part of the messy short term.. .. but the word is still getting out.. seems to me... trickle, trickle trickle.. starts to add up after a while.. no?

Calling the bottom @ $13550-$14550 on January 10th, 11th or 12th, wicking the 365 WMA, and closing the weekly candle above $15550.
There Jay, choke on that.

That's pretty specific.

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December 16, 2022, 11:02:31 AM
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https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1603703699435651074
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December 16, 2022, 11:17:28 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), Lucius (1), ivomm (1)

Michael Saylor's take on SBF and the FTX collapse -- Apologies if already posted.

Michael Saylor Destroys Sam Bankman-Fried From FTX

An interesting watch.
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