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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26363616 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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May 11, 2023, 10:01:17 PM


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May 11, 2023, 10:52:06 PM
Merited by Majormax (1), darkangel11 (1)

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...


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May 11, 2023, 11:01:16 PM


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May 11, 2023, 11:30:21 PM

Something up with the image proxy?

Development working running ....
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May 11, 2023, 11:35:05 PM

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...


Man, i think you have reason but i have to say one thing.

One of the most important ideas in the markets and stocks is

" Never try to time the market "

And everybody try to do that, and in the long run they fall into the trap, i think it was WB who say, "Wallstreet makes money when you operate and lose when you dont".

So the less you try to catch the best point of bear to buy or the best point in the bull run to sell, better for you.

In a few words, just HODL and buy when you can, no more, and again DONT TRY TO TIME THE MARKET.



One more and last thing.

Poor chartbuddy, with the images dont working he cant share the price.
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May 11, 2023, 11:49:51 PM

What about the US government selling BTC.

https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1656353977821196288


I have one strange question about this, taking out the actual cojuncture.

If US goverment sell BTC who buy it?, the people? if this yes, so the BTCs returns to the communitty and with that the "power" so.... if the government its really against the BTC its not better for them to confiscate them and never sell? and dont show you like another player in the game?

I know a lot of you can say to me, but its not the federal goverment its the justice selling to pay X creditors in some bankrupcy. And that can be ok, but we cant know.

EDIT: seems like its fake, but still intereseting the question i wrote.

After selling 9.8 bitcoins, the government owns 200K BTC.
Such words are used to scare people.
 If the price goes down, the government will buy it later, so it is harassing people by spreading false news.
The government will buy back bitcoins because everyone wants to buy after selling.
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May 12, 2023, 12:01:21 AM


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May 12, 2023, 01:13:56 AM

With bitcoin be safe from inflation


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May 12, 2023, 03:33:25 AM

Stop it buddy, pics don't even show so wth...
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May 12, 2023, 03:48:26 AM

Great buying opportunity for those who have been sitting on the fence waiting to pull the trigger.

Maybe add to the DCA or bring forward those DCA.

#BTFD
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May 12, 2023, 04:27:27 AM





Some stuff seems to be coming through. Do we know what the issue is? Maybe imgur is blocking the cache?
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May 12, 2023, 04:29:07 AM
Merited by John Abraham (1)

[edited out]
It's true that saying something is more accessible than doing it in practice. But we are talking about investing in Bitcoin and following the DCA method. I don't think you have to know rocket science to follow some simple steps.

I don't know if that is what we are talking about.

We could be talking about financial management, risk management and even tailoring your approach in regards to howto get into bitcoin.  Not everyone is going to follow a DCA method, even if DCA may well be amongst the best of BTC accumulation strategies for a lot of people, but DCA is not going to necessarily work for every person.. so I doubt that it is mandatory that everyone would follow the same or a similar strategy towards getting their BTC position or even attempting to maintain their BTC position.

Another thing is that not all people who are involved in this thread are involved in bitcoin as a long term investment strategy, and some members believe in trading, and so even if some of us might believe that various kinds of long term approaches and BTC accumulation would be best to strive towards meeting individually tailored goals, not everyone believes in that either.. including that if there might be some seemingly "simple steps" in regards to managing cashflow and expenses and figuring out other individual variables, there are a lot of ways that guys (and gal) can screw things up, even if screwing it up might not have had been the goal

Just as a reminder it is my point of view that when anyone invests into bitcoin, at minimum s/he should be attempting to consider cashflow, how much bitcoin s/he has already accumulated, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

It can take a long time to figure out each of the subcategories within the above-outlined individual considerations, yet no one has to figure them all out at one time or before getting started investing in bitcoin.. and accordingly any person could start by investing relatively small amounts into bitcoin or investing some amount that s/he believes to be reasonable and prudent - and continue to study his/her own circumstances along the way, and perhaps tweak his/her investing strategy from time to time along the way, as s/he is learning.

The first considerations within the above list are more basic, and the later considerations on the list are more advanced, so of course, on a personal level, each of us should be attempting to strive to get the basics in order (and understood - even if we believe them to be "easy peasy" before getting into the more advanced strategies and techniques.

Moreover, we are living an easy life compared to the old days. Remember how hard it was to use Bitcoin in the old days? The user had to run a node to use Bitcoin. We are doing nothing compared to them.

That seems to be a different point.

There has always been some geographical variation in terms of how easy (or difficult) that it might be to get BTC or exposure to BTC, and yeah of course, the very earliest days would have been more difficult than they are now, but even now, there can be some challenges in terms of getting BTC or getting exposure to price and/or making sure that you are not holding your keys in ways in which you might end up losing most of them if not all of them, and I am not even proclaiming to speak for the many variation in circumstances that any guys (and gal) might end up facing, including if there might be some desires to attempt to transact in it or just try to keep value in cold storage, there can also be various difficulties in terms of figuring out which ways to store (and transact) with bitcoin.

By the way, I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and I registered on the forum in early 2014, and it appears that you registered on the forum in April 2019, so I am not sure if you might be referring to some time prior to 2019 in terms of your reference to "the old days."  In other words, I am not sure exactly what your time reference would be in terms of what you consider to be "the old days" or even if you might be referring to some specific geography (jurisdiction) too because even in the USA, there can be a lot of location variance that affects BTC acquisition choices and/or experiences, too... still is the case.

Perhaps one of the most frequent problems that people have is a kind of failure to invest that goes along with a kind of eagerness to either take out profits from time to time and/or failure to keep investing in order to be able to enjoy some of the benefits of compounding, which many of us likely realize that the compounding has exponential aspects that fold upon themselves, but still are likely to take more than just a few years to play out.. so compounding gets bigger and Bigger and BIGGER .. so the first few times that you might get a doubling of your investment portfolio (whether in nominal terms or in real terms) might feel good but then when such doubling comes down the road later, the amounts can become somewhat staggering, especially if you might have had several doublings stacked on top of each other.. and the mind becomes somewhat unable to recognize and appreciate how those amounts had ended up growing so much even though they might have had started out with ongoing small, persistent and consistent contributions that might not even have had been very noticeable while they were taking place in the earlier stages of the investment... so there are a lot of occasions that people will pull out way too much of their value from their investment(s) - whether BTC or otherwise - and pull out their principle too early and thereafter fail to experience the various doublings (or the exponential/compounding aspects of their investments)...  

so that is the problem with failing to invest enough..
You have to know the management. I never suggest anyone invest a considerable amount. I suggest investing the amount that may not care too much.

Perhaps you are saying something similar to me, then?  There can be a quite a bit of variance between people in terms of how much discretionary income that they might have, how much they have to invest (other investments).. and a lot of particulars along the way... that I had already mentioned individual particulars that can affect how guys (and gal) choose to invest into bitcoin, if at all (which might have presumed that they already gotten over the hurdle of seeing the value in investing and acting upon such information to choose to invest into bitcoin rather than investing somewhere else and/or failing/refusing to invest in bitcoin or anything else for that matter).

 
Let's say someone makes $100 per month. I won't suggest he invest more than $20. He might not care about this money. Always keep some fiat for emergencies so you don't have to touch your BTC when you need money. I mean, Why would you sell your coin at a loss? Of course, if you need emergency cash, You will likely sell your coins. If you sell your coins at a loss, it's an actual loss. But, if you keep holding, that's an unrealized loss. You will eventually recover your position.

Nothing wrong with those ideas, even though it is ONLY involves a few considerations that any person might have when both choosing whether to invest into bitcoin, how much to invest and even considering if s/he might have some kinds of investment targets, so it may well be pretty easy if the investment target is to invest $20 per month for the next 12 months, and then after that don't do anything, but it may be a bit more involved if the timeline for investing might be longer and there might be needs to reconsider budgetary considerations and even whether the investment targets (goals might have had changed based on having had acquired a bitcoin position as compared to a presumptively no coiner status that might have existed prior to getting involved in bitcoin investing).

and another angle is investing too much and getting too far over one's skiis.. and so over investing has to do with poor cashflow management (and sure sometimes bad psychology too), and if there are not enough preparations for safeguarding various times that cashflows can become short, and then there are times that these people are forced to have  to cash out of some or all of their investment at a time that is not of their own choosing because they failed to adequately account for cashflow shortages down the road that might come from investing in bitcoin today... so then maybe the cashflow shortage ends up coming in 6 months because there was a failure to keep an adequate cash (liquidity) cushion or to keep some cash in locations that could be drawn upon during those later down the road cashflow shortage periods that are quite likely to come, and some aspects of the cash shortages might be foreseeable and some aspects might not be foreseeable.
Here, I would say the same thing as I said in already. It's all about money and risk management. Nobody knows your worth other than you.

Fair enough.
 
Don't take suggestions from anyone about how much you should invest and how much is not.

No problem regarding that, either, if you feel that you have enough information to make various kinds of decisions regarding what to do, and then to act upon such decisions, including the fact that you seem to be suggesting that the person has to take responsibility over his/her decisions, even if some of the ideas might have been learned from teachings of other people, unless the person just knew everything about life (and bitcoin investing) at the time s/he was born, then that would be a different story to have a genius that were to exist right from the time of birth.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Work on your money and risk management. It's not wise to invest high and then panic. If I know I won't have any issues if I lose thousand dollars, I can invest in Bitcoin without fear if I have patience.

Sounds like you got it all figured out.

That's good.

Many of us should be way more informed about what to do and how to do it after we have been doing it for 4-10 years, than someone who is just starting out, so then if we have been investing for 4-10 years or longer, then our accumulated position might contribute to our needing to revise our approach based on our having more assets (hopefully including a decent portion of BTC) to help inform us better how to continue to go forward from there, whether it is continuing to accumulate BTC or going more into a maintenance mode, rather than an accumulation mode... and even reallocation decisions might become more relevant for a 4-10 year (or more) veteran as compared to the beginner who might not have anything to reallocate because s/he has not built hardly anything materially meaningful yet... getting up to 1 year or more living expenses (or cashflow) into your investment portfolio starts to become significant/meaningful as compared to the beginner who might contemplate whether to invest 10% to 25% from one pay check that is hardly shit in terms of portfolio building... because 10% to 25% of one paycheck might only constitute somewhere in the ballpark of 1/100th to 1/500th of the annual cashflow... so even by itself, the one investment might seem like a large amount, but it is not really adding up to a significant/meaningful amount of money until it gets to a sizable amount in terms of what that specific person's annual cashflow situation is currently expected to be and then also accounting for what such cashflow expectations might be in the future as well.. There are quite a few places in which normies can end up making mistakes in these various calculations regarding what to do and how BIG of a position size might be reasonable in order to attempt to go in the right direction in terms of accomplishing their goals, whether that is merely to improve their living circumstances, get to fuck-you status or some variation of those kinds of considerations that might merely be to maintain their current living status but not having to work (which is actually an improvement.. hahahahaha.. keep the same living standard, but not having to work.. doesn't that sound good.. and easy peasy to accomplish?)..
Too many words, and I don't understand where to start. LOL.

Starting from the beginning might not be a bad idea... Just like in the Wizard of Oz.



I agree with what you have said. No, I don't think it's an easy peasy lemon squeezy thing  Grin. You know that little Kid  Grin. Sometimes reallocation could fuck you up. But it won't last long if you can profit at a reasonable price. It depends on the situation. Buyback at a low price will surely help you accumulate more Satoshi!

So ?  Now we are agreeing that the road to richie status (or whatever might be our individual goal(s)) might not necessarily be easy-peasy?
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May 12, 2023, 04:31:00 AM

Stop it buddy, pics don't even show so wth...

I'll try and find a different service to use tomorrow (recommendations welcome). In the meantime, I'll leave them so they can be there when fixed. Note that the images are definitely on imgur so it appears to be something with the image cache or imgur blocking the image cache.
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May 12, 2023, 04:38:00 AM

Stop it buddy, pics don't even show so wth...

I'll try and find a different service to use tomorrow (recommendations welcome). In the meantime, I'll leave them so they can be there when fixed. Note that the images are definitely on imgur so it appears to be something with the image cache or imgur blocking the image cache.

I read something about imgur limiting hot links by domain name now.
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May 12, 2023, 04:46:30 AM


AGAIN DUMP🔽BOUNCE BACK LEVEL $26.5K🔼
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May 12, 2023, 05:21:13 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

A few days ago I placed an order to purchase 2 physical BTC coins online. Today I got these coins in my hand and I really like to see the bitcoins. This is the first time in my life I have seen physical bitcoins for which the love for bitcoins has blossomed from the heart. My long time wish was to see BTC coins in reality, today that long time wish has been fulfilled. I have deep hope and love for Bitcoin.
There is no such thing as physical BTC. Enjoy your toy coins.
Not exactly. If you print the seed words of an address holding one bitcoin, it would be (like) a physical bitcoin. TBH

You gotta admit, that's a bit of a stretch OOM... .even though surely you can say that "this piece of paper contains all of the information that I need to access my one cornz that happens to be located in a place that involved the networking of computers to secure it and to provide me access when I enter this information that the "computer system" recognizes as a bitcoin address that happens to have one cornz contained therein."

I know, I know, I know... .even my attempt to rebutt you sounds kind of dumb.. almost as dumb as your proclaiming that the piece of paper is like a physical bitcoin.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

Yes.. a lots of things "could happen."

I am not very convinced about your prognostication... if that's how we might label your above Nostradamus wannabe attempt?

[edited out]
Surely, one should instinctively feel reluctant to put all their eggs in one basket, but this is no ordinary basket. I'm not suggesting to put 100% of one's investment capital into Bitcoin, but history has shown that no Bitcoin investor has ended up at a loss when HoDLing for a sufficient amount of time (several years). So, for those considering a long-term investment strategy, I would be tempted to suggest a higher Bitcoin investment allocation than your 25% upper limit above. Perhaps.

I don't have any problem with anyone tailoring BTC investment strategy that is more aggressive than the top of my starting range of 25%, and prior to March 2020, I used to have the top of my initial suggestion range at 10%, so after March 2020, I had reconsidered that I would adjust the top of my suggested initial starting from 10% up to 25%, and really, I am never even suggesting that anyone should be limited by the range, but if you are coming into bitcoin and not knowing shit, it is probably better to hagve some kind of a guidance regarding where to start and then hopefully the person figures out his/her particulars along the way, and if s/he comes to believe that a higher amount is suitable to his/her situation then so be it.. I have no problem with any kind of individually tailored revision of what s/he has come to believe is MOAR better.

From my point of view, one of the BIGGER issues is for normies to get the fuck off of zero, and even if they might agree that bitcoin seems like a good thing, but if they fail/refuse to look into the matter further and get off zero.. which I suggest to be at least 1%, but there might be some people who would individually determine to invest less than 1%, and whatever, they have to make those choices for themselves, and absent any explanation, then I am still going to stick to my recommendation that says the whimpiest of strategies should at least have 1% and the more aggressive strategies up to 25%, and the individually tailored assessments can surely go outside the range that I am suggesting to be their initial "dumb" (or would it be "blindfolded") entrance into bitcoin that might be prior to studying the various specifics associated with the various matters that every investor should be attempting to consider (so that s/he is actually investing, rather than devolving into gambling practices - mentally and financially).

Another thing about bitcoin that you well know AlcoHoDL is that bitcoin is such an asymmetric bet to the upside that none of us would likely even need very much invested into bitcoin in order to be able to potentially profit stupendously, so in some sense if bitcoin's investment thesis is as strong as many of us are proclaiming, then even folks who are ONLY allocating 1% of their $100k investment portfolio (or whatever their investment portfolio happens to be) are likely going to be quite a bit better off than the so many laggards who might take another couple more cycles before they start to see such an overwhelming majority of people (normies in their circles) all having some exposure to bitcoin.

Well, come to think of it, a 25% Bitcoin investment allocation, when compared to 50%, would only delay a target gain by one average doubling period, which can be as short as 1 year.


Now you are talking.   Wink

So, 25% is not too bad as a 'safe' upper limit after all. The important thing is to get off zero quickly, and work your way up as high as you feel comfortable with. And hey, these are not stonks, be willing to take a little more risk!

Hey!!!!!!!!!    Angry Angry Angry

Are you cheating?

Are you copying my notes?



Not financial advice, but I wish I had gone all-in in 2015 though... Easy to say after the fact of course... Shoulda, coulda, woulda...

Don't get me wrong.  I am not opposed to anything that you are saying in terms of a kind of need that many of us should attempt to be as aggressive as we can in regards to our BTC accumulation strategy, but we still don't want to employ such high levels of aggressiveness that we either devolve into a kind of gambling approach or we end up unintentionally recking our lil selfies... It's important to get over the goal post, rather than saying I could have had 25 bitcoin, but instead, I tried to get 50 bitcoin, and I ended up recking myself in the progress, and that's why I only have 2.5 bitcoin... which yeah.. maybe my numbers are too big, because many of us already realize that we might not even need more than a whole bitcoin in order to be at a relatively high richie status, but we still have to get over the line, and I am not even saying that it would not be a good idea to acquire more if you can rather than settling for a smaller amount.. there is at least one member who I repeated proclaim to have had been overly whimpy.. but actually even overly whimpy sometimes can still work out alright if the investment timeline is long enough and none (or not too many) coins are lost along the way.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

Probably not very much.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That was a lay-up, no?
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