Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[the artful bodger]

30k btc to be sold is surely not doing any good to the price. on the other hand on bitstamp alone 35k btc have been dumped on jan.5th. and another 27k next day. bitstamp has a market share of less then 0.2% (the real market share value is surely higher due to fake volume on chinese exchanges)
 

I get what you are saying that someone had to sell all those coins on January 5 and 6 on Stamp; however, traded is not the same as dumped, merely because the price went down during the process of the trading.  

The South China Morning Post suggests that crash was exacerbated by margin calls on Huobi. The exchange couldn't cope with the number of traders logging in, and effectively locked most of them out while they got margin called. A typical experience was described by a trader called Mr Ding who lost 409 bitcoins plus an extra 1,228 bitcoins on loan because he couldn't log into Huobi. The exchange told him it was his loss, and they were not compensating him.

That's probably why the PBOC started an inspection, because Huobi wouldn't compensate its traders. Without that margin trading the price should be less volatile. The PBOC's only protecting traders from similar situations, it's not banning bitcoin or closing exchanges.

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2061997/chinas-bitcoin-market-another-ticking-time-bomb

“I have taken on big risks when making leveraged betting, but the collapse of the trading system made me unable to run stop-loss orders, so I think the platform should compensate for investors’ losses,” Ding said.
Ahead of the market crash, Ding had borrowed 995 million yuan from Huobi by pledging a principal consisting of the 409 bitcoins he already owned. He then bought a further 1,228 bitcoins with the loan.
Most of his holdings were compulsorily sold out by Huobi during the price collapse while he was unable to access his account.
Wu Xing, head of marketing at Huobi, said the log-in delay was caused by a torrent of visits and selling orders, which exceeded the capacity of the website.


“[The loss] was due to irresistible factors and not included in the compensation scope. We are sorry and understand the feelings of the investors,” she said.

[Chainsaw]

Long term support for the bottom:
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Descending wedge in the shorter term:



Descending wedges are typically reversal patterns, and we would have to break a strong support line to defy expectations upon pattern resolution. The support line will force the shorter term descending wedge to terminate before its forced termination at convergence. The two trends converge by 1/18 14:00.

I am expecting one more leg downwards, constrained by both the wedge and support.
If these hold, then the lowest low would be $686.

Some solid TA for once. Didn't catch that wedge myself

One thing I like about it is, the top of that wedge hasn't really been defined on-volume yet. So one way it could invalidate the short term trend would be to reshape itself into a downward channel, rather than wedge.

...and then we have transitioned into the cup and handle pattern :-)

Having broken on low volume, with no real follow through, this is looking increasingly likely. The case would strengthen greatly if we get a rally which stops on the yet-to-be-defined, resistance line parallel to support.  This is one of those rare scenarios where my short term expected position is bearish, but for exactly those reasons the medium term outlook is bullish.

[Killerpotleaf]

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2061997/chinas-bitcoin-market-another-ticking-time-bomb

he went max leverage long on the third massive pump, with no stop loss order??
he must of thought it would break ATH and fly away.

[r0ach]

atm the divide between miners and devs are based on insults and broken promises. the code is out, but 3/4 of miners won't run it. what's the way forward?

You did not compose much of a valid question since you never cited any type of goal or endgame in the first place.  If you do the math, you will come to the conclusion that Bitcoin needs around 50 TPS (8 MB + Schnorr sigs) to have any type of market penetration in the upper middle class of the world with current population levels (assuming LN doesn't work out).  But, that's the problem - even if you achieve that level, people will demand it have 1000 TPS instead, and so on - never ending goals.  

This means Bitcoin will always be nothing but a centrally controlled technocracy in the end if people are allowed to say it's never finished and always has to have a team of their choosing control it.  Either this thing can be Grovers/Shors quantum computing proofed and then unleashed with nobody working on it, or there is no point in it's existence.  Meaning, Bitcoin has to have some type of endgame or that's an attack vector in itself to be controlled by technocrats.

To me, that endgame is either 8 MB + Schnorr signatures, or if it actually functions right (which I'm not convinced it will) LN + whatever is required to prevent an apocalypse from everyone closing channels at once (which nobody seems to have any damn clue of how to solve that problem).  It seems like to me that transactions would have to be queued in an orderly line to prevent it, and then you're back to square one of not having solved any problem without centralization.

[Chainsaw]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range.

...

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Keep in mind that this pattern will hold so long as our bottom rests anywhere between $789.78 (Finex) and the previous bottom, at $504, changing only the slope.  The cup-and-handle scenario does not violate this scenario, and is extremely bullish.

I'd still love to see fear trigger a bit more of an overreaction to the downside. Rather than cause technical damage, I see short-term down as the fastest path to rally resumption.  

A Chinese New Year's formal announcement by the PBOC, assuaging go-forward fears...that's my dream scenario. I figure if we get some sort of sudden, positive external event like that, we are more likely to resume the rally in the short term. Conversely, if we simply exhaust, the (stronger) consolidative base would rise more slowly over the coming months.

[becoin]

i think its doubtful PBOC will order all positions to be closed within a 24 hour period... from what i hear they want to bring an element of stability and health to the bitcoin market, they want things to be done right... not be the source of investors losing there shirt...

You're wrong! Don't get fooled by narratives about PBOC "consumer protection" worries! They've stepped in because bitcoin price increased 200% in a short amount of time. If Bitcoin price have decreased instead PBOC would have never intervened to protect investors!

[the artful bodger]

i think its doubtful PBOC will order all positions to be closed within a 24 hour period... from what i hear they want to bring an element of stability and health to the bitcoin market, they want things to be done right... not be the source of investors losing there shirt...

You're wrong! Don't get fooled by narratives about PBOC "consumer protection" worries! They've stepped in because bitcoin price increased 200% in a short amount of time. If Bitcoin price have decreased instead PBOC would have never intervened to protect investors!

What about Mr Ding getting locked out of his Huobi account while he had 1638 leveraged bitcoins force margin called? Almost all leveraged Huobi traders got wiped out like him because Huobi wouldn't let them log in, and Huobi refuses to compensate them. The PBOC had to do something, or look ineffectual.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating with almost no price change... $821USD (Bitcoinaverage). Not much volume either.

Hopefully the PBOC inspection panic is done and we can get back to normal growth.

[ErisDiscordia]

Bumping against the 4h EMA all weekend long...will it break down again?

I predict a violent move within the next 6 hours. No idea about direction.

[Killerpotleaf]

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

[Tzupy]

Let's see where the support is now.

the next 24 dumps are critical.

The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.

[the artful bodger]

[bitebits]

^ Don't know anything about TA and chicken bones, but I know what that means in the Wall Observer thread: something is about to happen.

[K~Ehleyr]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

[600watt]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

[the artful bodger]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

[K~Ehleyr]

I figured May too, but then I'm very much a newbie to looking at these charts.  I'd say this May earliest, but it could be as late as then end of 2018.  I'll be disappointed if the handle has to extend into 2019 before we get our almighty surge to the cosmos...

[600watt]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

[the artful bodger]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

[abz99]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

Recent price action was perfectly aligned with the Fibo Time Zone. From my point of view November 2017 is the next possible climax http://zentrade.online/bitcoin-price-action-update-20170113/