Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[egghead123]

4 hour and daily chart taken again today(Daily chart in this case shows forecast over approx 14 days) with the forecast/prediction shown using the candles (green = bull/red=bear).Pink line is the projected mean average price.Realtime price stops at broken vertical gold line and then the neural simulated price begins using the green/red candles and pink line.Trend is indicated at the bottom of each chart and anything below 70% is unreliable.Trend looks positive.

BTCUSD, H4, 2017.01.21




BTCUSD, D1, 2017.01.21

[prophetx]

A cryptocurrency which is fully controlled by a nation state is just a national currency.
And banks do the job good and cheap enough for fiat transfers.

There wont be any chinacoin...

There will, and it's a terrifying idea in the hands of a country that is perfectly at home practising wide-scale internet surveillance and censorship.

Why would they need a crypto for it if they can do the same with less expenses?
If you look at capital controls, aml, kyc it will only get worst and china has much more play room then western democracies in this regard.

I can only imagine a chinacoin if it is a undercover operation by the chinese government where they have full control in secret.

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

[mymenace]

A cryptocurrency which is fully controlled by a nation state is just a national currency.
And banks do the job good and cheap enough for fiat transfers.

There wont be any chinacoin...

There will, and it's a terrifying idea in the hands of a country that is perfectly at home practising wide-scale internet surveillance and censorship.

Why would they need a crypto for it if they can do the same with less expenses?
If you look at capital controls, aml, kyc it will only get worst and china has much more play room then western democracies in this regard.

I can only imagine a chinacoin if it is a undercover operation by the chinese government where they have full control in secret.

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

all Fiat will be on the bank developed blockchains soon

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tech-blockchain-ibm-idUSKCN11Y28D


http://fortune.com/2016/09/28/blockchain-banks-2017/

[Holliday]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

[kurious]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

[JayJuanGee]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Seems as if you are attempting to create a distinction that in current practice is without a meaningful difference, no? 

Whether it is a bank or an exchange or whatever, these guys are not currently mandated to any kind of auditing or transparency.  We cannot really determine for sure whether they have 100% of the coins of their depositors or 10% or some other clear and unambiguous number.  Sure there are some abilities to trace, but if the third party moves the coins around multiple times, we cannot be sure that they own the control over those coins or whether they loaned them out to someone else, right?   viola.. fractional reserves, no?

[Holliday]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Each bank is required to have a certain reserve. I do believe it's commonly 10% of the deposit.

The idea is that the person who borrowed those 90 coins can then deposit them at another bank. That bank can then loan out 90% of those 90 coins. This is how bank money is "created". Of course it's also destroyed once those loans are paid.

This would also be entirely possible with Bitcoin.

The reason fraction reserve is an issue in the existing banking system is due to how the bank tracks it's assets while engaging in fractional reserve and the ability to exchange those assets with the Fed for Fed money. It's been a while since I've read up on it so I can't provide every detail.

Edit: As long as you don't have a Fed that acts as a lender of last resort, the system would be self-correcting in that Banks who can't manage their assets properly would end up going out of business, probably due to a bank run. Helicopter money, however, leads to extreme malinvestment and creates the large bubbles and crashes that we are all familiar with. The taxpayer is held accountable, while the bad actors get rich.

[600watt]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Each bank is required to have a certain reserve. I do believe it's commonly 10% of the deposit.

The idea is that the person who borrowed those 90 coins can then deposit them at another bank. That bank can then loan out 90% of those 90 coins. This is how bank money is "created". Of course it's also destroyed once those loans are paid.

This would also be entirely possible with Bitcoin.

The reason fraction reserve is an issue in the existing banking system is due to how the bank tracks it's assets while engaging in fractional reserve and the ability to exchange those assets with the Fed for Fed money. It's been a while since I've read up on it so I can't provide every detail.

when a bank loans money they just write it on some balance sheet. they literally create the loan out of thin air. that is why money is debt. it can only be debt, because it was created to be debt. that is why it is called fiat money.
of all the money deposited by its customers banks in my country are said to keep 2% as a reserve. when 3 out of 100 customers demand their deposit in cash (bank run) the bank goes belly up.

[r0ach]

I think for the first time in their life they realized what their fiat money real value is and what that's value of financial freedom.

Lol, what?  I'm sorry you couch potatoes, but buying Bitcoin does not give you financial freedom.  Fighting a war with an AR15 against whoever is trying to take your financial freedom is how you get financial freedom.  Just like the days of the revolutionary war, you will probably have to get off your couch at some point.  There is no mouse click shortcut to freedom.  Even metals holders get worried about the government trying to confiscate or legislate against metals in some way.  TPTB can impede the usage of Bitcoin about 5 billion times easier than metals, so you are definitely not getting freedom by smoking some stuff out of a bong and clicking something on Coinbase.

You don't understand how disruptive technologies work.

Please, can you not mindlessly repeat Antonopolous slogans like they actually mean something?  Antonopolous is just a salesman or religious evangelist.  The internet isn't some wild west where you can get away with whatever you want.  The state rules the internet and most sectors of the globe are censored already.  There are only two endgames for bitcoin, either the state bans it or co-opts it.  The mining pools are such enormous physical attack vectors that they can shut down Bitcoin just as easily in the physical domain as the digital one even if you were able to magically camouflage all your Bitcoin packets.

So we already know the state can easily wipe out Bitcoin if they want.  The next option is of course co-opting it.  To do this, all they're going to do like I said before, is create a static address, alias system wrapper that goes around Bitcoin and sign laws that you're forced to use it or be considered a criminal launderer.  Then once they have everyone on-boarded, they will divorce the alias system away from the native Bitcoin unit into their regular old fiat system run by the state with the bonus that they were also able to ban cash in the process to totally lock you in their system.

For the 5000th fucking time, Ted Kaczynsky was right and increasing technology always leads to loss of freedom.  There is no way around it whatsoever no matter what your original intention was.  The only way you're getting any freedom is by operating solely in the physical space (transacting in a fungible substance like metals), not digital, because the state never has the resources to monitor every square inch of the earth, but they can easily do so for the digital space!

All you're really doing is making it easier for the state to enslave and destroy you.  Bitcoin came out before the era of them trying to ban cash at every second of the day.  The thing you should be afraid of right now isn't the possibility of a bitcoin ban, it's the fact they aren't trying to ban bitcoin at all!

[kurious]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Each bank is required to have a certain reserve. I do believe it's commonly 10% of the deposit.

The idea is that the person who borrowed those 90 coins can then deposit them at another bank. That bank can then loan out 90% of those 90 coins. This is how bank money is "created". Of course it's also destroyed once those loans are paid.

This would also be entirely possible with Bitcoin.

The reason fraction reserve is an issue in the existing banking system is due to how the bank tracks it's assets while engaging in fractional reserve and the ability to exchange those assets with the Fed for Fed money. It's been a while since I've read up on it so I can't provide every detail.

Edit: As long as you don't have a Fed that acts as a lender of last resort, the system would be self-correcting in that Banks who can't manage their assets properly would end up going out of business, probably due to a bank run. Helicopter money, however, leads to extreme malinvestment and creates the large bubbles and crashes that we are all familiar with. The taxpayer is held accountable, while the bad actors get rich.

It's often lower than 10% and in the UK before the financial crisis of 2007/8 it was as low as 3, or 4%

But let's accept 10%.  What that means is they have $100 in, then they can lend $1000 out - see what I mean?

It's not 90% of the money - they take the $100 as the reserve and THAT becomes the 10%, so they can lend it out many times over.

[gembitz]

A cryptocurrency which is fully controlled by a nation state is just a national currency.
And banks do the job good and cheap enough for fiat transfers.

There wont be any chinacoin...

There will, and it's a terrifying idea in the hands of a country that is perfectly at home practising wide-scale internet surveillance and censorship.

Why would they need a crypto for it if they can do the same with less expenses?
If you look at capital controls, aml, kyc it will only get worst and china has much more play room then western democracies in this regard.

I can only imagine a chinacoin if it is a undercover operation by the chinese government where they have full control in secret.

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

all Fiat will be on the bank developed blockchains soon

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tech-blockchain-ibm-idUSKCN11Y28D


http://fortune.com/2016/09/28/blockchain-banks-2017/

 


#neverforget

[Miz4r]

You don't understand how disruptive technologies work.

Please, can you not mindlessly repeat Antonopolous slogans like they actually mean something?  Antonopolous is just a salesman or religious evangelist.  The internet isn't some wild west where you can get away with whatever you want.  The state rules the internet and most sectors of the globe are censored already.

You have your head too far up into conspiracy theories. The state doesn't rule the internet, I can do pretty much what I want on the internet as long as I don't break the law in my country. Actually I can even break the law if I want, but besides downloading a few movies and series perhaps I'm not interested in doing that. I know there's massive surveillance on the internet and this is indeed a problem. The people who created Internet realize now they have made a mistake by not having encryption built into the protocol and are careful to not make the same mistake twice with crypto. Antonopoulos is in fact correct and knows the pitfalls quite well.

There are only two endgames for bitcoin, either the state bans it or co-opts it.  The mining pools are such enormous physical attack vectors that they can shut down Bitcoin just as easily in the physical domain as the digital one even if you were able to magically camouflage all your Bitcoin packets.

Bullshit. They shoot down a mining pool or two and before you know it decentralized mining pools will have become the standard. Bitcoin can and will easily adapt to this attack vector. They can't shut it down, sorry I just don't agree with you here.

The next option is of course co-opting it.  To do this, all they're going to do like I said before, is create a static address, alias system wrapper that goes around Bitcoin and sign laws that you're forced to use it or be considered a criminal launderer.  Then once they have everyone on-boarded, they will divorce the alias system away from the native Bitcoin unit into their regular old fiat system run by the state with the bonus that they were also able to ban cash in the process to totally lock you in their system.

This is possible, but only if we let that happen. Starting a physical war and picking up some guns and start shooting isn't going to cut it. We need to educate as many people as possible and create awareness, without sounding like crazy conspiracy nutcases the likes of Alex Jones. This does require we stand up and fight, but not with guns. If 80% of people say we don't want your private centralized digital currency, we want our p2p decentralized Bitcoin then they won't be able to stop us. The crypto age is still very young so we have some time still. Mainstream media is already losing its following pretty fast, and I predict this is going to continue as more and more people start following independent media and making up their own mind about things.

For the 5000th fucking time, Ted Kaczynsky was right and increasing technology always leads to loss of freedom.  There is no way around it whatsoever no matter what your original intention was.  The only way you're getting any freedom is by operating solely in the physical space (transacting in a fungible substance like metals), not digital, because the state never has the resources to monitor every square inch of the earth, but they can easily do so for the digital space!

Going back to physical currencies like gold and silver is not going to help at all. Besides the digital cat is already out of the bag, we're heading towards a digital currency future whether you like it or not so you better start investing and fighting for the right one right now. Spreading doom and gloom talk about Bitcoin is only playing into the cards of TPTB as they prepare their own version for the masses. You can not escape this by selling gold or silver to the masses instead.

All you're really doing is making it easier for the state to enslave and destroy you.  Bitcoin came out before the era of them trying to ban cash at every second of the day.  The thing you should be afraid of right now isn't the possibility of a bitcoin ban, it's the fact they aren't trying to ban bitcoin at all!

You overestimate the state's intelligence and organization. They barely have a notion of what Bitcoin is, they just know enough that they want something like that too except they want to control it themselves. Obviously this is going to be a fight into the future, but I'm not one to say beforehand that we're going to lose this fight.

[prophetx]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Each bank is required to have a certain reserve. I do believe it's commonly 10% of the deposit.

The idea is that the person who borrowed those 90 coins can then deposit them at another bank. That bank can then loan out 90% of those 90 coins. This is how bank money is "created". Of course it's also destroyed once those loans are paid.

This would also be entirely possible with Bitcoin.

The reason fraction reserve is an issue in the existing banking system is due to how the bank tracks it's assets while engaging in fractional reserve and the ability to exchange those assets with the Fed for Fed money. It's been a while since I've read up on it so I can't provide every detail.

Edit: As long as you don't have a Fed that acts as a lender of last resort, the system would be self-correcting in that Banks who can't manage their assets properly would end up going out of business, probably due to a bank run. Helicopter money, however, leads to extreme malinvestment and creates the large bubbles and crashes that we are all familiar with. The taxpayer is held accountable, while the bad actors get rich.

This is actually NOT possible with Bitcoin.

Given a 10% reserve requirement that means that 10X is allowed to be given out as loans.  A new crypto would have to be invented that allows certain actors to expand money supply, and for some central authority to bail them out if their reserves went under.

Let me provide a simple example.

100 BTC is deposited in a "bank"; using a 10% reserve ratio would mean that the bank could create loans of 1000 BTC; the problem here would be that as soon as the first 100 BTC loan is used pay for say a house, and the BTC is transferred out of the bank, this bank would go under because the bitcoin blockchain does not accept "IOU" bitcoins. Got it?

What has to happen to to have a fractional reserve type coin is simply copying the current system onto the a blockchain. the only benefit here would be better regulation and oversight of banks as this system would likely be auditable in real-time.  

The reason why this is interesting is that once there is a blockchain for such a currency it would be easier to integrate decentralized trading systems, and the flow of value between central bank controlled currencies and things like bitcoin have potentially less friction.

As far as bubbles and crashes go this has been the story of human civilizations for ages, it's not going to stop, ever.

[JayJuanGee]

actually it would be interesting  to see a state actor implement a fractional reserve type coin

You can do fractional reserve with Bitcoin.

You deposit 100 coins in the bank.
The bank loans out 90 of your coins.
Voila, fractional reserve.

Of course - but with a visible blockchain - you can see where they are and they can't lend them out twice which is what they currently do. It's why they want their own blockchain, they can't get away with as much.

EDIT: with fiat as it stands you put $100 in, they lend $3000 out. THAT is fractional reserve

Each bank is required to have a certain reserve. I do believe it's commonly 10% of the deposit.

The idea is that the person who borrowed those 90 coins can then deposit them at another bank. That bank can then loan out 90% of those 90 coins. This is how bank money is "created". Of course it's also destroyed once those loans are paid.

This would also be entirely possible with Bitcoin.

The reason fraction reserve is an issue in the existing banking system is due to how the bank tracks it's assets while engaging in fractional reserve and the ability to exchange those assets with the Fed for Fed money. It's been a while since I've read up on it so I can't provide every detail.

Edit: As long as you don't have a Fed that acts as a lender of last resort, the system would be self-correcting in that Banks who can't manage their assets properly would end up going out of business, probably due to a bank run. Helicopter money, however, leads to extreme malinvestment and creates the large bubbles and crashes that we are all familiar with. The taxpayer is held accountable, while the bad actors get rich.

This is actually NOT possible with Bitcoin.

Given a 10% reserve requirement that means that 10X is allowed to be given out as loans.  A new crypto would have to be invented that allows certain actors to expand money supply, and for some central authority to bail them out if their reserves went under.

Let me provide a simple example.

100 BTC is deposited in a "bank"; using a 10% reserve ratio would mean that the bank could create loans of 1000 BTC; the problem here would be that as soon as the first 100 BTC loan is used pay for say a house, and the BTC is transferred out of the bank, this bank would go under because the bitcoin blockchain does not accept "IOU" bitcoins. Got it?

What has to happen to to have a fractional reserve type coin is simply copying the current system onto the a blockchain. the only benefit here would be better regulation and oversight of banks as this system would likely be auditable in real-time.  

The reason why this is interesting is that once there is a blockchain for such a currency it would be easier to integrate decentralized trading systems, and the flow of value between central bank controlled currencies and things like bitcoin have potentially less friction.

As far as bubbles and crashes go this has been the story of human civilizations for ages, it's not going to stop, ever.

Your assumption makes no sense.

We have people sending money to bitcoin exchanges, bitcoin services and more or less bitcoin banks, and bitcoin is not regulated.  The only thing stopping these folks from engaging in fractional reserve practices is getting caught and losing their reputation, so are some of them doing it?  I would think that some of them are doing it.. For the most part, once you give your coins to them, they do not necessarily transparently show those coins on the blockchain and show that they have control over those coins at all times and that those coins are not be loaned out, etc... currently fractional reserve in bitcoin does seem possible and does seem likely to be taking place.

[marcus_of_augustus]

keep arguing nonsensical stuff kids .. the Trumpian revolutionary rally train is gaining steam.

[bones261]

keep arguing nonsensical stuff kids .. the Trumpian revolutionary rally train is gaining steam.

Yeah, I think the coming trade war between China and US will have the Yuan devalued even more.

[Chef Ramsay]

The pussy power marches yesterday against Trump is helping to make Bitcoin great again. Power to the pussy! Trump meets with the cia on business day #2 coming up; he shit on them for the last few weeks. Interesting times ahead.

[gizmoh]

 Did you recognize him?

[Masoholik]

Did you recognize him?

Yes, he has my money.....

[edgar]

prison has really tidied him up.