Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

Fiat is not fungible.

As long as money laundering laws make one stack of cash more valuable than another stack of cash it is not fungible.



Also: Bitcoin is money.

[Tzupy]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

[spooderman]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

quoting because i doubt either of these scenarios.

my hunch is a smaller dump back into high 800s.

[Biodom]

We likely need some term that is between millionnaire and billionnaire, anyhow because through inflation of the dollar, it has become a bit too easy to become a millionnaire, but it does not mean the same that it did 20 years ago.  With the inflation of recent times, maybe having $10 million in wealth would have a bit more of a meaningful significance as compared with the mere millionnaire status.

Finally, I do understand the point about not every millionnaire or whatever can have a whole bitcoin, but it still remains a bit of a silly point to me... because there are a lot of things that not everyone can have and it becomes a kind of so what, even if it is making a point about upside price potential of BTC when we already have some folks hoarding 100s or even thousands of coins, and other folks with a much smaller means, of course, struggling to build up their bitcoin holdings to even one coin (I doubt that all of those strugglers are teenagers, too)

Good writeup.
Few points in addition:
1. In US, you have to have $6.8 mil to be in 1% by wealth, $400000-500000/year household salary to be that in salary department.
However, worldwide, your household has to make just above $32000 to be in 1% world-wide, but in US you would be below average (average is $52K).
2. having $1 mil in liquid assets in US is nice, but it would definitely not make you rich by any stretch of imagination.
3. reddit has an interesting blurb about push in establishing "crime of unexplained wealth". I can only imagine how difficult it would be to "explain" your wealth if bitcoin is over 40K, which is very realistic. People with even small incomes could have large gains if they bought early and even $920 is early if it goes to 40K within 5-10 years. Paradoxically, I really hope for 1099-B like forms as long as they are accurate (this would be critical).

[DieJohnny]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

Lost my faith in EW long ago... always traders trying their hardest to force wave counts to match history, never predictive of anything.

[DieJohnny]

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.

[becoin]

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.

That is nonsense.

What does that mean "as fungible as it needs to be"? It is either fungible or it is not! You can't have a semi fungible money like you can't have a semi pregnant woman. Partially fungible means it is NOT fungible.

"Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever"... ?!
People buy it because they believe Bitcoin is the future of money. Why do I need bitcoins if I can't use it as money, ever?

[DieJohnny]

No, bitcoin does not need fungability to have value.  

No. Bitcoin does need to be fungible if it wants to be money!
If it is not fungible people will start using another coin as money and bitcoin will lose its value!

Bitcoin is already as fungible as it needs to be.... and Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever. Yes there are already other coins we use for money, buy those too.

That is nonsense.

What does that mean "as fungible as it needs to be"? It is either fungible or it is not! You can't have a semi fungible money like you can't have a semi pregnant woman. Partially fungible means it is NOT fungible.

"Bitcoin doesn't have to be money, ever"... ?!

People buy it because they believe Bitcoin is the future of money. Why do I need bitcoins if I can't use it as money, ever?

Fungible while in a given moment (exchanging your money for goods at the moment of purchase) is boolean, Fungibility from a global perspective is not Boolean and never has been. Your "money" has varying degrees of global fungibility depending on the "money" you are using. I cannot buy a car in the USA with money from Venezuala or with Bitcoin. So your overall position about boolean fungibility is completely wrong. All money on this planet and in the universe (see that Republic dataries have no value to Watto) has varying degrees of fungibility.

Bitcoin may likely today be the second MOST fungible money on the planet next to the American Dollar. That is today right now, yes.

People do not buy Bitcoin because it is the future of money. They buy bitcoin because it is digital money that has no equal and everyone is excited about it. It is fungible and people learn very quickly just how much. Nobody buys bitcoin because they are going to stop using their dollars, or rupies or whatever.

[becoin]

Bitcoin may likely today be the second MOST fungible money on the planet next to the American Dollar. That is today right now, yes.

Ah, okay. I should have guessed by now I'm discussing bitcoin with a dollar cultist. Wasting my time...

If you're US citizen try to deposit your American dollars in a Swiss bank and you'll soon learn if they are "globally" fungible or not. IRS will tell you.

[Ibian]

People buy bitcoin because they have some kind of reason to do so. And who gives a fuck about three thousand year old definitions of money, it's either useful to the individual or it is not and that's all that is useful to say about it.

[JayJuanGee]

hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.

Are you saying that BTC prices will be bouncing around within that price range for the next six months or so?

You must have finally decided to go long in bitcoin,..... hahahahahha...   

By the way, your current price range prediction is seeming quite broad...   Are you merely trying to hedge in order to be right no matter what or do you just not have any more specifics in your current thinking?  Don't get me wrong, it is not a bad prediction (even though it does seem a bit more optimistic than even me), if it were to be true... $1,000 as the new floor and $2400 as the ceiling (at least in the next 5-6 months).. whowza!!!

[hv_]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

Lost my faith in EW long ago... always traders trying their hardest to force wave counts to match history, never predictive of anything.

Hehe, if you found sth working better pls let me now by pm.

 

[Ted E. Bare]

Sentiment here is too negative, we are at the highest prices in bitcoins history and there is more potential to the upside.

[Ibian]

Sentiment here is too negative, we are at the highest prices in bitcoins history and there is more potential to the upside.

And that, Sir, is bearish!

[Ted E. Bare]

And why is that? Because the price always has to fall and we can't have higher prices? The bitcoin price is literally increasing every year, except for 2014. I would not worry and I do not believe in all the bear crap.

[K~Ehleyr]

And why is that? Because the price always has to fall and we can't have higher prices? The bitcoin price is literally increasing every year, except for 2014. I would not worry and I do not believe in all the bear crap.

The bull v. bear stuff is something that has always puzzled me.  I mean, surely anybody who owns any bitcoin is a "bull", no?  Because if they were truly "bearish" about Bitcoin, they'd have kept their money in fiat, in a bricks & mortar bank, where it's "nice and safe".  Nobody's going to have put their cash into Bitcoin unless they believe the price is going to go up.

Am I being overly simplistic?

[600watt]

And why is that? Because the price always has to fall and we can't have higher prices? The bitcoin price is literally increasing every year, except for 2014. I would not worry and I do not believe in all the bear crap.

The bull v. bear stuff is something that has always puzzled me.  I mean, surely anybody who owns any bitcoin is a "bull", no?  Because if they were truly "bearish" about Bitcoin, they'd have kept their money in fiat, in a bricks & mortar bank, where it's "nice and safe".  Nobody's going to have put their cash into Bitcoin unless they believe the price is going to go up.

Am I being overly simplistic?

there is short term, mid term, long term to be considered. i am a happy permabull. i think bitcoin will rise over $5k until 2020. we will see a new ath in 2017.
but i also think it will take at least until may 2017 to recover from this correction. if i had the guts i would sell some btc because i think we will see lower prices than the current one. but i am a coward, so i rarely do sell in moments like this one.  just can´t stand the fear that price could explode therefore ending up with less btc...

[Odalv]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

Sure, bitcoin price will be negative. They will pay you, just b/c holding bitcoins is too expensive and bitcoins are too heavy to transport.

[Torque]

And why is that? Because the price always has to fall and we can't have higher prices? The bitcoin price is literally increasing every year, except for 2014. I would not worry and I do not believe in all the bear crap.

The bull v. bear stuff is something that has always puzzled me.  I mean, surely anybody who owns any bitcoin is a "bull", no?  Because if they were truly "bearish" about Bitcoin, they'd have kept their money in fiat, in a bricks & mortar bank, where it's "nice and safe".  Nobody's going to have put their cash into Bitcoin unless they believe the price is going to go up.

Am I being overly simplistic?

there is short term, mid term, long term to be considered. i am a happy permabull. i think bitcoin will rise over $5k until 2020. we will see a new ath in 2017.
but i also think it will take at least until may 2017 to recover from this correction. if i had the guts i would sell some btc because i think we will see lower prices than the current one. but i am a coward, so i rarely do sell in moments like this one.  just can´t stand the fear that price could explode therefore ending up with less btc...

I predict that in the April/May timeframe we will slowly creep over the $1K mark again, and the media won't say shit about it the next time.  It'll be a non-event. Bitcoin probably won't be newsworthy again until the end of the year, when either an ETF launches, some major adoption announcement, or they do another round of those silly "which currency beat out all the others" type articles.

Oh, I did some paper trading once with bitcoin. Got my butt handed to me, would have lost out many btc if I had traded for real.  Thank the godz I didn't.

[sugarbaby]

The next 2 days are critical. [...]

Everyday is a critical day, for the better or the worst...