Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

[PoolMinor]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

[Ted E. Bare]

$900 = buy with all your fiat?

[Tzupy]

$900 = buy with all your fiat?

940$ would be cheap, 900$ might turn out quite expensive.

[GBattaglia]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

[simmo77]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

[GBattaglia]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

What I'm saying is it could be more than a little dip if something spooks people enough for it to go down to $880. Making profit off of
$10 dips with fees is hardly worthwhile unless you have at least 10BTC or so laying around

[AlexGR]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility

[600watt]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

weird that kraken gets the biggest hits. since when the market is following €  

[GBattaglia]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility

I have to admit I don't have a huge fear of "hacking" with BTC-E. It is always a risk and I wouldn't store life savings there or anything, but they have been one of the most reliable in that regard for a very long time aside from the temporary DDOS downtimes that happen every now and then.

[AlexGR]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility

I have to admit I don't have a huge fear of "hacking" with BTC-E. It is always a risk and I wouldn't store life savings there or anything, but they have been one of the most reliable in that regard for a very long time aside from the temporary DDOS downtimes that happen every now and then.

Personally I don't really believe the hacking narrative half the times hence the "". Most of the time it's inside job. I mean Karpeles had like 200k coins stashed somewhere? Bitfinex had top-notch security and everything went out the window to make the impossible->possible? Mintpal got bought and then got "hacked"? Yeah right.

So, from that perspective, people should be careful.

[600watt]

the next 24 criticals are bitcoin.

[Mahdi0]

You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes). But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.

I agree with you about attempting to protect yourself from some of the price volatility, but I don't agree with the strategy that you seem to be suggesting, which is to sell when you see (or believe) that the price is going to go down - you are going to get screwed too many times if you attempt to time that and to figure that out.

The safer strategy is to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and part of the trick is figuring out increments and amounts in order that you neither run out of BTC to sell or money to buy with if the price tanks.

I have been employing such a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and it seems to work pretty well.

A couple more things:  1) I don't think that it is a good idea to employ the selling part of the formula until you have figured out your accumulation targets and attempt to sufficiently accumulate before selling any BTC and 2) it is also a good idea to attempt to figure out various BTC/fiat ratios that you want to attempt to maintain and follow at certain price points.  Of course, you can have some flexibility, but you should also try to have a plan or an outline, too so that you can attempt to stay within certain predetermined parameters - which is especially important during very high volatility periods, when you don't wanna get nervous and deviate too much from your predetermined plan.

I will try this. Gracias

[Ted E. Bare]

Who sold at the bottom?

[abz99]

Bitcoin is on a verge http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170124/

[r0ach]

Also: Bitcoin is money.

It sounds like semantics, but I would say it's not.  

There's a saying that gold and silver are money and everything else is debt/credit.  This is true.  Fiat can default if your sovereign no longer honors it, like what happened in India with demonetization of bills.  Bitcoin can default if it becomes unusable somehow.  It's not possible for gold or silver to default because it exists as more than a concept.  Yea, the perceived "value" can change, and individual borrowers can default - which is just an obfuscated form of theft - but the system itself doesn't default.

[pinger]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility

I have to admit I don't have a huge fear of "hacking" with BTC-E. It is always a risk and I wouldn't store life savings there or anything, but they have been one of the most reliable in that regard for a very long time aside from the temporary DDOS downtimes that happen every now and then.

Personally I don't really believe the hacking narrative half the times hence the "". Most of the time it's inside job. I mean Karpeles had like 200k coins stashed somewhere? Bitfinex had top-notch security and everything went out the window to make the impossible->possible? Mintpal got bought and then got "hacked"? Yeah right.

So, from that perspective, people should be careful.

Or just start using Bitsquare.

[Paashaas]

I'm ok with the fee added to the Chinees exchanges but the charts are very boring to watch...

[aztecminer]

The next 2 days are critical. If there will be a successful pump, eventually leading to about 1050$ - 1100$, then this will be a EW one, and after months of sideways we'll see 2000$ or more.
If however the pump will fail, then we'll see a major correction, down to about 600$ and the possibility of a new bear market.

quoting because i doubt either of these scenarios.

my hunch is a smaller dump back into high 800s.

quoted, because i think u are wrong.. my guess is a pump to the high 56,000s after the surprise hard fork .

[aztecminer]

hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.

Are you saying that BTC prices will be bouncing around within that price range for the next six months or so?

You must have finally decided to go long in bitcoin,..... hahahahahha...   

By the way, your current price range prediction is seeming quite broad...   Are you merely trying to hedge in order to be right no matter what or do you just not have any more specifics in your current thinking?  Don't get me wrong, it is not a bad prediction (even though it does seem a bit more optimistic than even me), if it were to be true... $1,000 as the new floor and $2400 as the ceiling (at least in the next 5-6 months).. whowza!!!

i always was long ...