Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

From time to time, I get these kinds of feelings, too.

Sometimes, you can either just sell a fraction of a percentage of your holdings or set some sell orders for very small amounts, and doing such tweaking will cause you to feel less anxious and more prepared for down, if it were to happen. 

On the other hand, if prices go up, you have to consider how much are you prepared to leave behind, and in that regard, your sell order should be small enough, that you don't feel bad about leaving it behind and you still feel that you have enough stake in UP that you are going to sufficiently prosper.

Even though this is called preparing for either direction, i do understand that there can be certain times that there is some anxiousness because you feel that your holdings are not quite proportioned in accordance with your sense of probable price directions.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin holders are funny bunch — especially the old school ones. They want to see the glory days of 20x returns in a year (and the accompanying crashes!) — almost like a drug addict looking for one more hit. Those days are gone. We should be aiming for 2–3x gains every year for the next couple of years, and then those returns should be steadily declining over time, but always going up and to the right — the power of compound growth will ensure that we still get 20x returns, but over a longer period of time and in more sustainable fashion.

I doubt that old timers are any more delusional than anyone else.

The fact of the matter is that none of us really know, and you don't seem to know either - because, even though I kind of agree that market cap increases and more trading tools (more mature in other words) likely causes the volatility to go down, we cannot count on any kind of return whether that is 2x or 3x a year or 20x over 10 years.

Furthermore, in retrospect we are going to be able to look back and to see what happened, and usually in retrospect it can be calculated in ways that are much more measured; however, when we are in the midst of attempting to predict price direction, we don't know and we cannot even be sure that we won't get stuck back down in another period of  $200s.

Like you, I am mostly betting on up, and I have a pretty decent chunk of change in BTC because I think that it remains one of the most promising of investment categories, but I doubt that the path forward will be stable in any kind of meaningful way, and there also remains (in spite market cap and shorting tools) possibilities of irrational exuberance that could cause considerable and quick exponential growth - whether that is a 10x spurt, a 20x spurt or some other variation. 

So in other words, there is nothing wrong with speculating or talking about 10x or 20x in a year or less, even though some folks are going to place differing probabilities on such, whether that is .0001% or 68%.. hahahahaha.. And it is also probably healthy to reassess from time to time.. recall a time period, when Adam continuously suggested $32k in the near future, now he is kind of suggesting $12k.., which shows that sometimes we have to adjust our expectations based on previous unknowns becoming known and the speculation about the probability of newly developing unknowns (both known and unknown)

[DaRude]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

[Killerpotleaf]

it does look very bullish short term
my 860 kinda looks like a long shot, we might be >1000 in a few days....
FOOK.

oh well, i just thought all the longs in china covering while all the scraping bots getting shutdown might cause some very noticeable price weakness.

i forgot bitcoin is a honey badger

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

[PoolMinor]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

[r0ach]

What do you people make of this? Will it make Mexicans look for alternative ways for remittances?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/25/news/economy/mexico-remittances-trump/

[Searing]

It is the first time in two years that I really have no idea what to do.
The price should go down the next 1-2 months. Looking the 1w chart, or the order books, the result is the same: down. But it seems that the game is changing a lot with the new chinese exchange "self regulations".
And there is still a lot of buying pressure I don't know why. Maybe the halving effekt, or a lot of new bitcoiners, or that margin trading (=shorting bitcoin) largely has been killed.
So, I'm 90% long, but I want to short. But I don't want to lose my precious bitcoins, cuz I think, that maybe it'll go up! AAAAA 

Bitcoin loves 'sideways price' we could be back to that again with the low volume......can you imagine the pump if all the different flavors of bitcoin devs got together with
a hybrid 2mb block/seq witness comprise of some such

(ack! gave my self a little btc woody just thinking about it!)

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

[r0ach]

Meanwhile, the Jews have banned white males from working at banks:

http://www.reddit.com/r/altright/comments/5q3rox/no_straight_while_males_allowed_at_bank_of/

While Trump resurrects Andrew Jackson:

http://www.reddit.com/r/altright/comments/5q5fz7/trump_hangs_portrait_of_andrew_jackson_in_oval/

[PoolMinor]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

Well, those people that are betting are not doing it at BitFinex according to the pic below.

[Karartma1]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

Noted that as well. Don't know, I'll wait at the window 

[JayJuanGee]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches?  

Do you think that when there are that many shorts, then the price is more likely to go up?

I have no real clue, except that I do understand the motive to push the price in the opposite direction to force those shorts into being called.

shorts are not at 1 year high, the 1 year high is 25,345 BTC August 1 2016 03:00

I was not really so worried about whether DaRude was technically correct, only whether there was some kind of significance in the quantity of change that he was witnessing... and whether that quantity of shorts would be some factor that would influence our insights concerning probabilities of the price moving in one direction or another.

I do understand that it means that a lot of folks are appearing to be betting that the price is going down - but it does not necessarily mean that they are correct - but it does mean that we have had a significant amount of time in a price range that may cause some folks to believe that prices are going to be going down - even though they may not be going down..

Also, if the price went up to $950 or $990, would many other those shorts either be forced closed and sure some folks may chose to close them early or they may have taken certain stop loss measures... even at prices lower than $950.

Ultimately, these matters can be a bit complicated, but still some folks may bet on shorter ranges without really appreciating that the price had been suppressed for about 2 years.. and we are likely still in a bull market and still in the process of rebounding from nearly two years of bear market.  


Edit:  I just noticed the August 1, 2016 date that you mentioned  - and yeah, what a coincidence, one day before the supposed "hack"...

Well, those people that are betting are not doing it at BitFinex according to the pic below.



[http://i67.tinypic.com/2zz3zlv.png[/img]

Yes, I believe that I recognize what you seem to be suggesting, and that is that longs seem to considerably out number shorts, at least at the current moment and on that particular exchange (Bitfinex)... so the conclusion that DaRude made seems to NOT be based on real current data (at least not on Bitfinex).

[Kramerc]

Finex is getting some volume back? Shorts are at 1yr high too, grab your torches? 

I'm only eyeballing here but I think $ denominated shorts are at ATH, while long/short ratio is around all time low.

Shorts must be right, right? 

[Wolf Rainer]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

[Hunyadi]

.....can you imagine the pump if all the different flavors of bitcoin devs got together with
a hybrid 2mb block/seq witness comprise of some such

IMO this will happen when the time is right 

[r0ach]

Will be interesting to see how this affects bitcoin should it occur:

Alex Jones claims Trump will release "hidden" DARPA technology:

https://youtu.be/IlzXhH9bwI8?t=1083

I think there is actually probably something to it, since it seems like numerous groups have published data in the past about being able to create 40-90% efficient solar energy collectors, yet here we are still sitting at 20%.

[PoolMinor]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

Help yourself to a donut while you wait for the good people to show up.

[valta4065]

This part of the forum is almost dead. Are all on hollydays or people went to another forum? I remember the chart guys and the "its happening" dudes.

The chart guy was a bot no?
I remember when we had the hourly charts about btc moves and mempool.
Was fucking awesome. I don't know why they're dead :/

[abz99]

Chinese New Year is coming, expect n-term wild moves http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170127/