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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 9 (6.3%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.5%)
H1 2020 - 27 (18.9%)
H2 2020 - 26 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 11 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.6%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.2%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.5%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21286822 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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February 12, 2018, 12:12:03 PM

1:10 link between BTC and ETH seems to have stretched with that little pump.  

On regulation: politicians are starting to figure out that crypto is wildly popular and that there are votes in being pro-crypto. There’s a lot that politicians will do to be voted back into office....
I don't care if they believe in crypto or not, if they actually turn pro-crypto - even if just to gain votes - that would be a positive development for humanity. After all, governments are supposed to represent the interests of the people. If all of politics worked this way I don't think I'd have any further problem with it other than the oversized bureaucracy, excessive tax rates, and sometimes overly strict regulations.

But the latter issues require more education in the general population beyond partisan bullshit. It's easy to be pro-crypto because there's a very realistic chance to make a fortune with it. That's not the case with the other issues, which are far more intricate and grossly misrepresented and oversimplified in politics and media.
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February 12, 2018, 01:43:50 PM

I had no clue what the BIS was, so I had to google it.

The BIS is the ‘central bank of central banks’. To be honest, the recent media outings of their chairman on the rise of cryptocurrencies were not exactly what the public is waiting for in terms of banking reform (how not to increase faith of the public in banks or: a PR disaster in the making). I hate to say it but the physical appearance of the guy also does not help in the minds of the public.

It all smells like making their long term irrelevance a given by their own (in)action, even without the ascent of cryptocurrencies.

IMF owns BIS - steal from the poor give to the rich

Their currency is
Standard Drawing Rights - the king of money

How your wealth is finally processed

https://www.rt.com/business/418523-cryptocurrency-regulation-inevitable-imf/
Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens




I find pretty ironic everyone insist in calling that guy "The head" when they should call it "The body".
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February 12, 2018, 02:10:16 PM

I had no clue what the BIS was, so I had to google it.

The BIS is the ‘central bank of central banks’. To be honest, the recent media outings of their chairman on the rise of cryptocurrencies were not exactly what the public is waiting for in terms of banking reform (how not to increase faith of the public in banks or: a PR disaster in the making). I hate to say it but the physical appearance of the guy also does not help in the minds of the public.

It all smells like making their long term irrelevance a given by their own (in)action, even without the ascent of cryptocurrencies.

IMF owns BIS - steal from the poor give to the rich

Their currency is
Standard Drawing Rights - the king of money



How your wealth is finally processed

https://www.rt.com/business/418523-cryptocurrency-regulation-inevitable-imf/
Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens




I find pretty ironic everyone insist in calling that guy "The head" when they should call it "The body".


I thought Augustus Gloop got sucked up the chocolate pipe at Willie Wonka’s Chocolate factory....
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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February 12, 2018, 02:13:35 PM

I had no clue what the BIS was, so I had to google it.

The BIS is the ‘central bank of central banks’. To be honest, the recent media outings of their chairman on the rise of cryptocurrencies were not exactly what the public is waiting for in terms of banking reform (how not to increase faith of the public in banks or: a PR disaster in the making). I hate to say it but the physical appearance of the guy also does not help in the minds of the public.

It all smells like making their long term irrelevance a given by their own (in)action, even without the ascent of cryptocurrencies.

IMF owns BIS - steal from the poor give to the rich

Their currency is
Standard Drawing Rights - the king of money



How your wealth is finally processed

https://www.rt.com/business/418523-cryptocurrency-regulation-inevitable-imf/
Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens




I find pretty ironic everyone insist in calling that guy "The head" when they should call it "The body".


I thought Augustus Gloop got sucked up the chocolate pipe at Willie Wonka’s Chocolate factory....
His shape is marvelous. And people still believe that it's not possible for humans to achieve anything they could ever conceive of, even though we have a guy here that is literally defying the laws of physics by not being a perfect sphere.
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February 12, 2018, 02:35:58 PM

Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens




Lol, calling something an environmental disaster when he is that size.
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February 12, 2018, 02:43:10 PM

Buy the neckline breakout of the inverted head and shoulder pattern around $8,893 and sell when it hits $10k.

Woohoo! Reversal is near!

Close to a Morning Star pattern in the weekly:




Yea amazingly it broke the downward trend it appears on the weekly.

So our bottom is a very steep foundation. No double testing! When u got a goji star like that, macd crossing, and fib line. That looks bullish.
I thought on past 2 days it would hit that resistance level of $9200 but suddenly bounce down again and checking on image if that green candle would continue its a sign of reversal but yet there are lots of resistance to break up but rest assured on what would be the trend we are seeing is bullish.
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February 12, 2018, 02:47:03 PM

AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.
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February 12, 2018, 03:00:04 PM

Buy the neckline breakout of the inverted head and shoulder pattern around $8,893 and sell when it hits $10k.

Woohoo! Reversal is near!

Close to a Morning Star pattern in the weekly:




Very hopeful.  And I am rooting for it.

But the week has a long way to go, and we would probably want this week's candle to close over 10k.

Tall order?
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February 12, 2018, 03:05:56 PM

I guess nobody cares about this: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/11/investing/lagarde-bitcoin-regulation/index.html

Wow was 8000 the new bottom retest?

Where’s Smokey the Bear?

Maybe that IMF statement was too pathetic sounding?
Why would anybody give a rat's ass about regulation when decentralized exchanges are on the horizon? For the very first time in history regulators won't be able to dictate their rule upon citizens.
Decentralized exchanges need fiat on/offramps too, so they can be choked or leashed by regulation. That's the one issue that still makes me give a ratt's ass.
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February 12, 2018, 03:10:23 PM
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Machine learning + machine gun = fucking scary

It doesn’t matter if the machine isn’t conscious if it can mow you down instantly.
On a robot cheetah. That runs faster than any man alive. Without tiring. You can't trip it, you can't outrun it, can't out-aim it, can't hurt it with anything less than a hammer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_luhn7TLfWU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chPanW0QWhA
A robot cheetah... hmm, a bit like the Rat Thing in Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash!
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February 12, 2018, 03:19:41 PM

AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will *continue to* control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.

FTFY.

Machine do what they are asked to do.
Some machine learning algorithms (such as artificial neural networks) are based of the biomimetism principle, but the result is not even close to the reality.
Biomimetism implies two things :
-Our comprehension of the living is still very limited. Hence, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, etc... are by essence incomplete. You can see this that way : an artificial neural network is 10% (or 20%, it is very subjective here) nature inspired, and 80% pure engineering.
-Even with a full comprehension of nature processes, the algorithms outcoming of our attempt to mimic them wouldn't copy 100% of the reality, cause you know, organic cells (or organic processes in general) > transistors. Maybe this will change with major disruption in technology, for example a fully functionnal quantic computer.

For now, biomimetism only gives us some general paradigm that emerged naturally. And it works because Nature is just damn well made. But as long as we don't understand the truly meaning and processes of a thought, we'll never have a sentient machine. Scifi stories where some creator kinda randomly create true (artificial) intelligence is pure fantasy.


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February 12, 2018, 04:16:34 PM

AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.
We already have rudimentary self-replicating algorithms. They're also self-repairing/amending, which is why algorithmic trading with Machine Learning works so well compared to traditional and commercially available trading bots. Considering that these algorithms automatically adjust as new data rolls in, you could already say that they are self-aware (of their relevant metrics) as well. The reasons why these algorithms aren't shitting on human intelligence is mostly due to a lack of sufficiently intertwined networks, but we're slowly getting there.
As far as "outsmarting" these algorithms is concerned. That's only partially true. We can screw with AI algorithms by analyzing precisely how they assimilate data (which doesn't work with all algorithms because it's sometimes impossible to tell what is going on and they're pretty much a blackbox). But they are usually significantly better than humans by a large margin at solving specific tasks. As mentioned earlier, the only reason they aren't capable of solving general tasks is because they're currently specialized algorithms for specific tasks. Once we can efficiently connect many such specialized "modules" together, humans will seem like complete retards compared to AI. Which raises the questions of whether or not we want to merge or inevitably have AI as our near-literal God.


AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will *continue to* control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.

FTFY.

Machine do what they are asked to do.
Some machine learning algorithms (such as artificial neural networks) are based of the biomimetism principle, but the result is not even close to the reality.
Biomimetism implies two things :
-Our comprehension of the living is still very limited. Hence, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, etc... are by essence incomplete. You can see this that way : an artificial neural network is 10% (or 20%, it is very subjective here) nature inspired, and 80% pure engineering.
-Even with a full comprehension of nature processes, the algorithms outcoming of our attempt to mimic them wouldn't copy 100% of the reality, cause you know, organic cells (or organic processes in general) > transistors. Maybe this will change with major disruption in technology, for example a fully functionnal quantic computer.

For now, biomimetism only gives us some general paradigm that emerged naturally. And it works because Nature is just damn well made. But as long as we don't understand the truly meaning and processes of a thought, we'll never have a sentient machine. Scifi stories where some creator kinda randomly create true (artificial) intelligence is pure fantasy.
I would argue the contrary in continuation of my above ramblings. We don't need to mimic the human brain perfectly. Humans simply don't compare to specific task algorithms. All it takes to trump us is connecting modules together whilst allowing for the creation of new ones by the algorithm itself. And as I've mentioned, the first algorithms to create code already exist. So either of higher computational power or more efficient algorithms should be enough and reality both of these will get satisfied over time.

We didn't copy birds or fishes either to fly in the skies or swim through the oceans either, and we're significantly better at both of these tasks. There is no compelling reason to create a carbon copy of the human brain for this specific purpose.
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February 12, 2018, 04:22:03 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

There are game bots. They play chess. They play go. That's all they know to play. So give them a break if they beat humans in a game. That's the only thing they can do anyway. They still had a hard time until recently and required massive computation and storage.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.

There are sex bots. They have "family" mode too. So they try to talk to your friends and guests like normal. They try. They're still better at their first function.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)

Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.
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February 12, 2018, 04:34:26 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

There are game bots. They play chess. They play go. That's all they know to play. So give them a break if they beat humans in a game. That's the only thing they can do anyway. They still had a hard time until recently and required massive computation and storage.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.

There are sex bots. They have "family" mode too. So they try to talk to your friends and guests like normal. They try. They're still better at their first function.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)

Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.

Although I’m certain these AI devs could design a clown bot named Carlos
who dances like a moron across the stage yelling
BEEEECONEEEEECT!!!!
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February 12, 2018, 04:39:26 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.
How do humans know right from wrong? Good from evil? Humans make mistakes all the time, and they make more of them than an AI will for a very simple reason. An AI can be trained on countless of human generations worth of data within a few hours to a few months before ever being put to use. A single human however, can't just go and live through all of human history before setting foot into the real world.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.
I feel like whoever opens up a few car parks/racing tracks just before self-driving cards tip over human driven cars will make a fortune.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)
Most hedge funds get floored by the average equity market growth rates. And those that are the most competitive are highly data driven and rely on machine learning. The amount of data that goes into the trading decisions by a decent bot is something that no human could ever dream of processing himself. Especially not in realtime. If ML isn't the norm in hedge funds yet, it's only because of a lack of ML talent due to the relatively young age of the industry and not because humans can outperform the best algorithms.


Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.
I'm actually surprised that this keeps working. Beeeeeeeeeeeconneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeect was the most obvious scam that I've ever seen in my life. And people still ended up complaining about getting burnt. Unbelievable.
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February 12, 2018, 04:52:23 PM

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now
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February 12, 2018, 05:03:25 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

....


As the very first purpose of this is going to be "move randomly and kill everything that moves", it doesn't really matter to distinguish good from evil.

remark : antipersonnel mines do the same job for cheaper.
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February 12, 2018, 05:07:51 PM
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So, initial impressions of Lightning after a few days of puttering around, and throwing 0.3 some-odd BTC at funding channels.

"Ain't nobody gonna get rich running a node"

Was mentioning to my partner this morning, "I'm not sure this project is worth it"

The tech is kinda neato, tho, I guess.

I think I'm technically losing BTC right now fucking around with Lightning.

Anyway, off to see what the herd is up to.

Fuck this cold. Shit startin' to irritate me, yo. Ain't built for this weather.

Can't believe I'm two weeks away from submitting my resignation.
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February 12, 2018, 05:13:49 PM

200    Nuls Nuls    $57,330,531    $2.43    $4,872,420    23,564,882 NULS *    1.07%    sparkline

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* Not Mineable

B.
Yellow Card Alert
When a
user generates a block during a internet disconnection, computer crash or
when experiencing network issues, this will not be considered as a violation the
networks rules. https://nuls.io/pdf/NulsWhitepaper1.1.pdf?vt=20180205

The new Bitcoin has been found this is awesome it was seen in a dream.
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February 12, 2018, 05:16:06 PM

So, initial impressions of Lightning after a few days of puttering around, and throwing 0.3 some-odd BTC at funding channels.

"Ain't nobody gonna get rich running a node"

Was mentioning to my partner this morning, "I'm not sure this project is worth it"

The tech is kinda neato, tho, I guess.

I think I'm technically losing BTC right now fucking around with Lightning.

Anyway, off to see what the herd is up to.

Fuck this cold. Shit startin' to irritate me, yo. Ain't built for this weather.

Can't believe I'm two weeks away from submitting my resignation.

Thanks for the follow up on your experience as a LN node.

I've got a few questions...

When you say it is not worth it, I think you mean that you don't see it is something that it is going to have an interesting ROI for you as an intermediary node... but you mean now, medium term or also in the future?

How is that you are technically losing BTC rigt now? Have you experienced some direct loss of BTC? (something which has been well advised by developers at current stage though).

I would be glad if by summer this year there is some real life usage of LN. For that we would need at least a very few early adopters retailers, exchanges, atm networks even if a very small minority. Not sure if I am being too optimistic with that target. What's you opinion about it?

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