Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Globb0]

You can just take out the heli with a car in the USA

Its an up signal.

[1714025604]

1714025604

[1714025604]

1714025604

[1714025604]

1714025604

[1714025604]

1714025604

[HairyMaclairy]

Its just temporarily testing that channel it broke out of in November and fell back into in January, before eventually falling below.

This already happened with a smaller channel above. There are several nested blowouts.

After the next crash, it'll spend 1-2 years testing the original slow channel from 2015-2016. At the next halvening it'll either breakout into the next bull market or fall below this channel to the final fail or least the longest bear market weve ever seen.

You will be familar with investors suffering recency bias from the GFC.  How do you challenge yourself to ensure you are not suffering recency bias from 2014?

In asking the question, I acknowledge that your calls to date have largely been correct.  I got bull trapped for two years in early March 2014 and so remember it well.

I am assuming a core part of your thesis is that a halvening cycle will only support one manic blow off period.  This would put the next blow off top in December 2022 or December 2023.  

[Raja_MBZ]

Hi to all experts anyone knows about? When the altcoins go to the moon again?

Steller up 12%. Not 🌝 though.

Well, Stellar has been falling steadily for weeks now.

Even with this 12% spike it´s still deep in the red

All alts are crashing bloody red, it's not just Stellar. Vechain, Cardano, Ripple etc, all the so-called awesome coins have been crashing for a while, not even "huge" partnerships are working out.

These days, I'm forced to ask myself, "Why am I really holding these shit-coins and getting daily decrease instead of bitcoin?"

[HairyMaclairy]

How on earth are you traders not documenting every trade and every satoshi in real time? What if the exchange fails on a trade? Or goes bust?
How do you objectively analyse your business strategies?

And the only way to pay as little tax as you dare is to start with this accurate record. Then you can finesse in some losses, being-scammeds, misjudgments, expansion programmes, capital expenditures.
If you need.

You leave your home exchange with X btc.  You re-enter your home exchange with X + Y btc.  You don’t really need to know much more than that to know you are making money.  

Measuring tax is much harder as I am supposed to reconcile BTC gains to USD gains to my local currency gains.  Even harder when you use LTC to transit between exchanges.  A single trade on Bitgrail took 3 positioning trades and then 3 trades to unwind.   Fortunately I got out with all my coins. 

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" ! 

[hamza987]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

[JayJuanGee]

Trying to do tax planning. I have thousands of trades across a dozen exchanges in different countries in all sorts of alts.  I am really struggling to figure it out so good fucking luck to the tax authority.  It would take a CPA 3 months.   I’m just going to have to make a best efforts estimate.  Half the exchanges don’t even export trade records in .csv.  Plus miner fees and dust lost in web wallets etc.  Total mess.  

Just a general question: why would someone make thousands of trades per year?
IMHO, it is self defeating in eventuality.
Personally, when I over trade, it a signal that I am about to lose a lot of money (for me).
In happened in 2000-2001 just before I had losses in 2002.
One year i had about a thou trades. It took me about three weeks to figure it all out on Turbotax.
Some trades looked really stupid when I looked at the totality of it all.
After that-no more of that nonsense.

It is fairly easy to average 3 trades per day, which is more than 1,000 trades per year, especially if you are doing trades of less than 3% price changes, which happens frequently, and with trading fees of .2% or .4% two ways (and sometimes less), you can have profitable trades that are based on mere 1% price changes.  

Furthermore, you can have BTC trades on several platforms which cause it more likely that some of them trigger and also play around with arbitrage opportunities between different cryptos and between exchanges, which also happen on a regular basis.  

Forget about the arbitrage, between coins, you can have a lot of arbitrage opportunities coming from one exchange to another, just assuming trading the USD/BTC pair, and all of these opportunities lead to possibilities that you could have a lot of trades filling, and frequently - adding up to 1,000 or at least a couple thousand trades per year... and all profitable, too - depending upon how you trade, but it is possible to set them up to all be profitable..

[Karartma1]

Fuck this rally up to $11.5k USD.

MOAR PHILOSOPHICAL DISCUSSIONS PLEASE !

Small minds discuss Merits; average minds discuss Altcoins; great minds discuss Bitcoin.

I think the quote was kind of like that 

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Trying to do tax planning. I have thousands of trades across a dozen exchanges in different countries in all sorts of alts.  I am really struggling to figure it out so good fucking luck to the tax authority.  It would take a CPA 3 months.   I’m just going to have to make a best efforts estimate.  Half the exchanges don’t even export trade records in .csv.  Plus miner fees and dust lost in web wallets etc.  Total mess.  

Just a general question: why would someone make thousands of trades per year?
IMHO, it is self defeating in eventuality.
Personally, when I over trade, it a signal that I am about to lose a lot of money (for me).
In happened in 2000-2001 just before I had losses in 2002.
One year i had about a thou trades. It took me about three weeks to figure it all out on Turbotax.
Some trades looked really stupid when I looked at the totality of it all.
After that-no more of that nonsense.

It is fairly easy to average 3 trades per day, which is more than 1,000 trades per year, especially if you are doing trades of less than 3% price changes, which happens frequently, and with trading fees of .2% or .4% two ways (and sometimes less), you can have profitable trades that are based on mere 1% price changes.  

Furthermore, you can have BTC trades on several platforms which cause it more likely that some of them trigger and also play around with arbitrage opportunities between different cryptos and between exchanges, which also happen on a regular basis.  

Forget about the arbitrage, between coins, you can have a lot of arbitrage opportunities coming from one exchange to another, just assuming trading the USD/BTC pair, and all of these opportunities lead to possibilities that you could have a lot of trades filling, and frequently - adding up to 1,000 or at least a couple thousand trades per year... and all profitable, too - depending upon how you trade, but it is possible to set them up to all be profitable..

I have hundreds and hundreds trades per day, by lending, nobody could ever document that .

[york780]

Everyone survived the bearmarket?

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

I gave you one merit, did you get it ?
I still have no idea, what "merits" are for, let alone "smerits"  

[Rosewater Foundation]

Everyone survived the bearmarket?

I died a little inside. You?

[El duderino_]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

I gave you one merit, did you get it ?
I still have no idea, what "merits" are for  

Yeah but i only When you recieve 2merit iT convert into 1 Smerit
For most its like the Smerit dry up very quickly and difficult for the most of us to send them out whats kind of pitty....

[El duderino_]

Everyone survived the bearmarket?

I died a little inside. You?

Fairly i was really not stressed out or anything only i was Just on holiday and @ holiday times its more Nice to see all in green zone for Btc ;-)

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

I gave you one merit, did you get it ?
I still have no idea, what "merits" are for  

Yeah but i only When you recieve 2merit iT convert into 1 Smerit
For most its like the Smerit dry up very quickly and difficult for the most of us to send them out whats kind of pitty....

Whoot ?
You´re kidding me ! I really want to understand, but this is no way! Can i throw a round, merits for all of you ? I mean, you´re worth it anyway, fine people here !

[El duderino_]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

I gave you one merit, did you get it ?
I still have no idea, what "merits" are for  

Yeah but i only When you recieve 2merit iT convert into 1 Smerit
For most its like the Smerit dry up very quickly and difficult for the most of us to send them out whats kind of pitty....

Whoot ?
You´re kidding me ! I really want to understand, but this is no way! Can i through a round, merits for all of you ? I mean, you´re worth it anyway, fine people here !

For sure Just +merit and Add how Many or what you want .....

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Oh, do i have to give my merits out to somebody, or what ? How does that work ?
Sorry, i´m a bit slow.
I just don´t understand the meaning of "merit" !  

Merit meaning is everything is going fairly. I need some points as well but it's not necessary i guess.

I gave you one merit, did you get it ?
I still have no idea, what "merits" are for  

Yeah but i only When you recieve 2merit iT convert into 1 Smerit
For most its like the Smerit dry up very quickly and difficult for the most of us to send them out whats kind of pitty....

Whoot ?
You´re kidding me ! I really want to understand, but this is no way! Can i through a round, merits for all of you ? I mean, you´re worth it anyway, fine people here !

For sure Just +merit and Add how Many or what you want .....

Gave you one, because you´re on the right side.
How many do i have, before i run out of them? Damn, life is full of important questions . . .

[Globb0]

You can see the remaining merit left to give on the screen where you give people merit.

Click the +Merit to see what I mean

"sendable merit"

[Ibian]

Why are we talking about likes like it was some kind of goddamn science 

[pfrtlpfmpf]

You can see the remaining merit left to give on the screen where you give people merit.

Click the +Merit to see what I mean

"sendable merit"

I have 19 sMerits, or something. Guess i cuddle them in my sleep. Sounds not to much, but i´ll take what i can get. Whoa, i should be a little conservative in giving out merits  

Why does a chicken have to cross the road, right before me ?  Because it would miss out, later to be determined.